© 2002 ibm corporation terena 2006 do not distribute 1 what’s really happening on the net:...

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© 2002 IBM CorporationTERENA 2006 Do Not Distribute

What’s Really Happening on the Net:Lessons from the Real World

Michael R. NelsonDirector, Internet Technology and StrategyIBM [email protected]

IBM Research

TERENA 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporation

My Background

B.S., geology, CaltechPh.D., geophysics, MIT1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor4 years as IT policy wonk at White House1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC8 years at IBM Industry Strategy Council, Internet2Former Chairman, TPRCVP, Public Policy, Internet Society

IBM Research


50 Things I learned in Washington

LESSON #1

ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker

IBM Research



LESSON #3

To make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”

IBM Research



LESSON #3

To make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”

(preferably true)

IBM Research



LESSON #8

Always look beyond the headlines

IBM Research


HEADLINE #1 - Bandwidth

The Headline

World Land Speed Record > 500 Mb/s

IBM Research


HEADLINE #1 - Bandwidth

THE HEADLINE

World Land Speed Record > 500 Mb/s

THE OTHER NEWS

Last mile technologies15-20 Mb/s at $50/month from Verizon100 Mb/s for <$40/month in Hong Kong

IBM Research


HEADLINE #2 – Internet Video

THE HEADLINE

Warner Brothers, Fox offer TV shows (including “Desperate Housewives” on the Internet

IBM Research


HEADLINE #2 – Internet Video

THE HEADLINE

Warner Brothers, Fox offer TV shows (including “Desperate Housewives” on the Internet

THE OTHER NEWS

Amateur and illegal video everywhere!

IBM Research


VIDEO EVERYWHERE

Bit torrent 30% of ALL traffic in 2004

50% of all traffic in 2005

70% of all traffic in some countriesAmateur video

Star Trek fan videos

Gaming videos

Webcams everywhere

IBM Research


HEADLINE #3 - Grid

THE HEADLINE

TeraGrid, EGEE demonstrate <10 TeraOp/sec grids

IBM Research


HEADLINE #3 - Grid

THE HEADLINE

TeraGrid and EGEE demonstrate <10 TeraOp/sec grids

THE OTHER NEWS

Akamai PC-based grids even more powerful

IBM Research


PC-based Grids

SETI @Home Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing

>684,000 users

>1,080,000 machines IBM’s World Community Grid

>100,000 donors

>170,000 machines Fight AIDS @ Home Dozens of other projects

http://www.distributedcomputing.info/projects.html

IBM Research


Hacker attacks and mega spammers

Thousands of hackers making a living using zombies to send spam or run DDoS attacks

Take over 2000 PCs before breakfast

IBM Research


HEADLINE #4 - Collaboration

THE HEADLINE

Scientists using Access Grid, VRVS

IBM Research


HEADLINE #4 - Collaboration

THE HEADLINE

Scientists using Access Grid, VRVS

THE OTHER NEWSThe Gaming Revolution

Producing GDP equivalent to Belgium'sMegaconferenceMay 1 Business Week cover story

IBM Research


HEADLINE #5 - Entertainment

THE HEADLINE

News Corp. buys MySpace for $560 Million

IBM Research


HEADLINE #5 - Entertainment

THE HEADLINE

News Corp. buys MySpace for $560 Million

THE OTHER NEWS

Internet isn’t just a medium, it’s a place80 million MySpace users20 million log on every day, <20 minutes

IBM Research


HEADLINE #6 - Spam

THE HEADLINE

Spam is out of control

IBM Research


HEADLINE #6 - Spam

THE HEADLINE

Spam is out of control

THE OTHER NEWS

The vast majority of spam is blocked and we’re making progress

IBM Research


HEADLINE #7 - Authentication

THE HEADLINE

Microsoft Passport, Liberty Alliance

IBM Research


HEADLINE #7 - Authentication

THE HEADLINE

Microsoft Passport, Liberty Alliance

THE OTHER NEWS

Open source, open standards, federated identity management gets real

MIT’s Technology Review Top 10 technologies

IBM Research


HEADLINE #8 – Governments and the Net

THE HEADLINE

Internet GovernanceUnited Nations wants to control the Net

IBM Research


Who “manages” the Internet?

World Summit on the Information Society Governments realizing the power of Net

Media

E-business

Threat to monopoly phone company (VoIP)

Political speech So they want to regulate or control it “Internet governance”

IBM Research


HEADLINE #8 – Governments and the Net

THE HEADLINE

Internet GovernanceUnited Nations wants to control the Net

THE OTHER NEWS

Attempts to regulate the Internet popping up everywhere

IBM Research


Policy-Legal-Regulatory Ecosystem

ITU ConventionInt’l Telecom Regs

APEC-TEL

Commission of the European Community

USAFCCFCC

[WCIT][WCIT]PP2006PP2006

eSecTG

eSecTG

NSTACNSTACCanada

Australia

InfsoInfso

ParliamentParliament

Germany

NANCNANC

IndustryCanadaIndustryCanada

Many Others

CybercrimeConvention

Signatories &Justice Ministers

CITEL

DOSDOS

BNETZA-TBNETZA-T

Other multilateral and bilateral agreements

DOJDOJ DOCDOC

DHSDHS PSECPPSECP

WGSCWGSC WGANTSWGANTS

PCC.IPCC.I

NGN WGNGN WG NGN regNGN reg

ParliamentParliament

France

NetherlandsUKHomeOfficeHomeOfficeParliamentParliament

CIOTCIOTEZEZ

OFCOMOFCOM

JusticeJusticeARCEPARCEP

JusticeJustice

BfVBfV

JHAJHA

CouncilCouncil

ASIOASIO

ACAACA

DTIDTI

Tony Rutkowski, Verisign, ITU NGN workshop, March 2006

IBM Research


Common infrastructure requirements worldwide

Availability, Security and Legal High availability

• analysis of network metrics and outages

Network attack mitigation Priority access during emergencies Alerts and notices during emergencies Restoration after emergencies Personal emergency services Preventing unwanted intrusions

• Filters (DoNotCAll)• Aids (CallerID)

Law enforcement/judicial/national security assistance

Cybercrime mitigation• Forensics capability• Fraud detection and management• Digital rights management

Universal access

Competition Requirements Unbundling Service interoperability User/subscriber access by service

providers Default service and routing options Nomadicity

• Number portability• Roaming• Payment method flexibility

Operations Requirements Directory access among providers Intercarrier compensation Transaction accounting

Other Consumer Requirements Disability assistance Universal Service CPNI protection

Tony Rutkowski, Verisign, ITU NGN workshop, March 2006

IBM Research



LESSON #17

There is nothing more dangerous than an old model applied to a new medium

IBM Research


“Mail governance” (1950): Who made choices about postal service?

Hundreds of governments and the post offices they ran

Universal Postal Union

(customers)

IBM Research


“Phone governance” (1970): Who made choices about phone service?

Hundreds of governments

Hundreds of government-run telephone companies

International Telecommunication Union

(“subscribers”)

IBM Research


The flow of power

Governments

ITU

Phone companies

Individuals

IBM Research


Who makes choices about the Net?

Dozens of intergovernmental organizations, standards bodies, and international NGOs

Hun

dred

s of

gov

ernm

ents

and

natio

nal c

onso

rtia

Thou

sand

s of

IT v

endo

rs,

netw

ork

prov

ider

s, IS

Ps…

Milli

ons

of In

tern

et u

sers

IBM Research


The flow of power

Governments

International Organizations

Vendors, ISP, software vendors

Individuals

IBM Research


WHO’S PAYING ATTENTION?

European Commission’s Television without Frontiers directive

WIPO Webcasting treatyFCC’s regulation of VoIPWiretapping and data retention requirements ITU’s Next Generation Networks initiativeTelco’s growing monopoly/duopoly powerNet Neutrality debate

IBM Research


Critical technology choices

Authentication and directories Privacy-enhancing technologies (P3P) Digital Rights Management Filtering technologies to block spam, porn Voice over IP Wireless Internet standards Web services and Grid computing Instant messaging IPv6 deployment Linking the phone network and the Internet Rich media standards (SIP, multicast, etc.) End-to-end vs. walled gardens

IBM Research


Tech answers to policy problems

Privacy P3P, etc.Piracy DRMPornography Filtering tech.Protection AuthenticationPricing Grid standardsPolicing Wireless Internet Psychology Phone-Net

mergerProcurement Voice over IPPayments Protectionism

IBM Research


Role of the NREN community

Educate policy makersUnbiased source of technical advice“Canary in the coal mine”

Tackle issues early

Privacy, IPR, securityTest out new technologies & standardsPromote open standards, open source

IBM Research


We must deliver a clear message

We are entering the third phase of the Internet

Megabit/sec > gigabit/sec

Communication > computing > collab.

Web services, mash-ups

Wireless, sensors, pervasiveTechnology choices, not regulation

IBM Research


Locus of Decision-making

No government All government Degree of government involvement

International

Regional

National

Company/Local

Individual

Internet standards

Online taxesCensorship

Telecom regulation

Spectrum policy

DNSIP addresses

Trade policy

Cyber-crime

Development aid

Spam

On-line privacy

Cyber-security

E-government

IBM Research




International

Regional

National

Company/Local

Individual

Spam

(Many different decisions in many different places)

IBM Research




International

Regional

National

Company/Local

Individual

Internet standards

Online taxesCensorship

Telecom regulation

Spectrum policy

DNSIP addresses

Trade policy

Cyber-crime

Development aid

Spam

On-line privacy

Cyber-security

E-government

Where “Internet governance” is needed

IBM Research


Where are we headed?


International

Regional

National

Company/Local

Individual

Global “Internet governance”

Scenario #1

Scenario #2

Scenario #3

IBM Research


The Third Phase of the Internet

1969 1980 1990 2000 2010

Cap

abili

ty

Phase 1 - Communicating

Phase 2 - Content

Phase 3Collaboration

?

The Third Phase of the Internet

1969 1980 1990 2000 2010

Cap

abili

ty

Phase 1 - Communicating

Phase 2 - Content

Phase 3Collaboration

?

IBM Research

TERENA 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporationuser

Phase 1 -- Remote Log-on

Computer

Computer

user

Phase 1 -- Remote Log-on

Computer

Computer

IBM Research

TERENA 2006 Do Not Distribute © 2006 IBM Corporationuser1

Phase 1 -- E-mail - one-to-one

user2

Computer

Computer

user1

Phase 1 -- E-mail - one-to-one

user2

Computer

Computer

IBM Research


Phase 2 -- The Web -- one-to-many

Web server

user

Phase 2 -- The Web -- one-to-many

Web server

IBM Research


Phase 3 -- Distributed storage -- many-to-many

Napster files

Napster files

Napster files

user

Phase 3 -- Distributed storage -- many-to-many

Napster files

Napster files

Napster files

IBM Research


Phase 3 -- Distributed Computing -- many-to-many

Grid Server

Grid Server

Grid Server

user

Phase 3 -- Distributed Computing -- many-to-many

Grid Server

Grid Server

Grid Server

IBM Research


Many Flavors of Distributed Computing

Power per node1 100

Num

ber

of n

odes

10

1 MPeer-to-peer (PC-based) Napster KaZaa SETI@home


Power per node1 100

Num

ber

of n

odes

10


IBM Research



Power per node1 100

Num

ber

of n

odes

10


Grid Computing (Server-based)National Grids TeraGrid


Power per node1 100

Num

ber

of n

odes

10



IBM Research



Power per node1 100

Num

ber

of n

odes

10



The Holy GridEverything integrated with everything


Power per node1 100

Num

ber

of n

odes

10



The Holy GridEverything integrated with everything

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