© 2003 by prentice hall, inc.,upper saddle river, nj 07458

© 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc.,Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458 with additions from WSU, Pullman, WA 99164-2700

EM 540/DecS 581 Quantitative Analysis for Management, 7e by Render/Stair

Week Number-1

EM 540 Operations Research/EM 540 Operations Research/

DecS 581 Operations ManagementDecS 581 Operations Management

Critical Chain Project Critical Chain Project ManagementManagement

Beginning The Project Management Solution



Week Number-2

The CCPM Solution to The CCPM Solution to Project Management Project Management

SchedulingScheduling

The last session was pretty depressingProject Structure is a problem.Task Variability is a worst problem.Human Behavior (as a result of attempting to deal

with structure and variability)-Ahhh!

Result, a single project planned for 70 days stretches to 160 days!

Three 70 day concurrent projects exceed 350 days!



Week Number-3

Painful Situation!Painful Situation!

3 Pro jects

3 Pro jects

Norm al Distribution, 50% Task Estim ate Confidence

Skewed Distribution, 50% Task Estim ate Confidence

Skewed Distribution, 60% Task Estim ate Confidence

75% Task Estim ate Confidence


Add 75% Erroneous Reporting of Task Com pletions (Parkinson's Law)

Add Student Syndrom e


Add M ulti-Project, Shared Resource (Queues)

Add M ulti-Tasking

50 150 250 350 450100 200 300 4000

Statistical Sum mary for Pm Sim Project Managem ent Simulation

6e

8a

6d

6c

6a

6b

5

8b

9a

9b



Week Number-4

We have Maxed Out!We have Maxed Out!

“We are caught in a vicious cycle which leads us to inflate our estimates and press for more people, just to see the completion dates of our projects slipping more and more into the future ...

“... until the time to do the project becomes so long or the compromises on the content become so large that the clients tell us, “If that’s the case we’ll go elsewhere !”

Eli Goldratt



Week Number-5

We must improve or lose We must improve or lose business and peoplebusiness and people

“At that Stage, a very unsatisfactory equilibrium is reached:

“Lead times are long

“Visibility is lost

“The work environment is chaotic

“There is a loss of ability to make decisions

“Everything is done by pressure.”

Eli Goldratt



Week Number-6

Remember this Image?Remember this Image?

Quality andScope

Timing andSchedule

BudgetedCosts

Precedence

Structure

Statistical Variation Human

Behavior

Bumpy Road of Reality

The Solution must address all three causes!



Week Number-7

Is a Solution Possible?Is a Solution Possible?

Many people have done it (See AGI Web)

Example: Israeli Aircraft IndustriesF-16 Maintenance - Problem Resolution

Flow Time

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 2 3 4 5 6

Month

Le

ad

Tim

e (

da

ys

)



Week Number-8

What are the elements of What are the elements of the Solution?the Solution?

It makes no sense to intentionally schedule conflicts.

Prioritize the work, Work the priorities. Stagger the release of work

(Remember the Job Shop Game)(Video)

Communicate what is important to those who can make a difference

How?

http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/em530/Docs/JSGInstinfo.htm

http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/em530/JobShopGame.ram



Week Number-9

Multi-Project Simulation Multi-Project Simulation 9c9c

Red is the Tightest Scheduled Resource



Week Number-10

1. Prioritize - Stagger 1. Prioritize - Stagger ProjectsProjects

Stagger based on de-conflicting Red Resources(others may conflict between projects)



Week Number-11

Staggering helps a bitStaggering helps a bitbut there is still Multi-Tasking but there is still Multi-Tasking

First Project Median 169

Second Project Median 219(total time 323)

Third Project Median 235(total time 367)



Week Number-12

Maybe we need to do this Maybe we need to do this by fixing each project, one by fixing each project, one

project at a time!project at a time!

Lets look at the single Project CCPM Solution for a few minutes before we return to the Multi-Project



Week Number-13

Our Empirical results on Our Empirical results on projects are not good. We projects are not good. We

need protectionneed protection

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Empirical Completion Distribution

Due Date

Buffer

If we buffer our existing schedule,we just add more time!This is counter productive! We are worse off. Even worse than before!



Week Number-14

Let’s take advantage of good statistics. Let’s take advantage of good statistics. If we finish early, we can move on to the If we finish early, we can move on to the next task. Don’t waste Safety Allocated.next task. Don’t waste Safety Allocated.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Completion Distribution

Buffer

Before: 85% Estimate

Due Date


Due Date

Buffer

After: 50% Estimate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Notice, we areonly changing the schedule.Actual work distributions are the same. If we finish early, we can capturethe advantage.



Week Number-15

Let’s take advantage of good statistics. Let’s take advantage of good statistics. If we finish early, we can move on to the If we finish early, we can move on to the next task. Don’t waste Safety Allocated.next task. Don’t waste Safety Allocated.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10


Buffer

Before: 85% Estimate

Due Date


Due Date

Buffer

After: 50% Estimate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Notice, we areonly changing the schedule.Actual work distributions are the same. If we finish early, we can capturethe advantage.

BufferEliminate waste



Week Number-16

We can buffer the variability of We can buffer the variability of activities along the Critical Chain, activities along the Critical Chain,

but where else?but where else?


Due Date

Buffer

After: 50% Estimate

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10



Week Number-17

Add Assembly (Feeder) Add Assembly (Feeder) BuffersBuffers


Due Date

Buffer

After: 50% Estimate

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9

10 Make sure non-criticalside chains are de-coupledfrom the Critical Chain



Week Number-18



Due Date

Buffer

After: 50% Estimate

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9

10Make sure non-criticalside chains are de-coupledfrom the Critical Chain



Week Number-19



Due Date

Buffer

After: 50% Estimate

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9




Week Number-20



Due Date

Buffer

After: 50% Estimate

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9




Week Number-21



Due Date

Buffer

After: 50% Estimate

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9




Week Number-22

Next Step, Add Next Step, Add Resource BuffersResource Buffers


Due Date

Buffer

After: 50% Estimate

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9

10 This is a ‘Notification’ step to make sure resources soon to be used on Critical Chain Activities are Ready and Available.



Week Number-23

Single Project BufferedSingle Project Buffered

Project Buffer

Resource Buffers

Critical Chain

Simulation 08 Commitment

95 Days

Feeder Buffers



Week Number-24

CCPM Simulation 08 CCPM Simulation 08 ResultsResults

End of Buffer 9550% Completion No Multi-TaskingBuffer Management

Previous Median



Week Number-25

Now, let’s look at Multi Now, let’s look at Multi ProjectProject

We Schedule Each Project individually according to Critical Chain Project Management.

We stagger the projects according to a selected strategic drum (resources)

We include a buffer between projects (on the drum)

All Estimates are at 50%. Use Buffer Management to prioritize resource allocation.



Week Number-26

Stagger Projects w/BufferStagger Projects w/Buffer

Buffer Between Projects Too



Week Number-27

Result with 50% schedule Result with 50% schedule and Buffersand Buffers

First Project Median 96 90%@110

Expected

Second Project Median 180 90%@210

Expected

Third Project Median 216 90%@245

Expected

3 P ro jects

3 P ro jects

N orm al D istribu tion , 50% Task E stim ate C onfidence

S kewed D istribu tion, 50% Task E stim ate C onfidence

S kewed D istribu tion, 60% Task E stim ate C onfidence

75% Task E stim ate C onfidence


A dd 75% E rroneous R eporting o f Task C om ple tions (P arkinson 's Law)

A dd S tudent S yndrom e


A dd M ulti-P ro ject, S hared R esource (Q ueues)

A dd M ulti-Tasking

P rio ritize P ro jects,S chedu le D rum

U se C ritica l C hain S chedu les and B uffer M anagem ent,R educe E rroneous R eporting o f Task C om ple tions to 50%

50 150 250 350 450100 200 300 4000

Statistical Summary for PmSim Project Management Simulation

R. Furbeck 5/11/00

6e

8a

6d

6c

6a

6b

5

8b

9a

9b

9c

9d

9e

E lim inate B ad M ulti-Tasking

Notice: All Three 70 day projects were completed within 240 days.



Week Number-29

Bottom LineBottom Line There is lots to gain Particularly in Multi Project

Environments Single Projects 20% reduction Multi Projects 50% reduction



Week Number-30

Critical StepsCritical Steps Prioritize work Avoid scheduling conflicts Schedule Aggressively (remove wasted safety) Insert adequate safety in the right places (less

than that taken out) Communicate Time Remaining Manage Resources according to Buffer Status Sequence multiple project on strategic

resource with large buffer.

© 2003 by prentice hall, inc.,upper saddle river, nj 07458

Business