詹姆士看天下 2015/02/16

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 Copyright © 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd. 2015/02/16

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/02/16
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/2/13 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.28 397 391 297 6.59 478 471 335 10.05 919 902 461 4.06 256 253 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2015/2/13 (%) 5.64 (&) 4.28 6.59 % % 10.05 -0.46 -0.39 -0.38 -0.31 0.13 0.17 0.34 0.42 0.51 1.62 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 7.6 3.2 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 -0.5 3.9 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.6 -1.9 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 5 : Bloomberg 2015/2/13 S&P500 Nasdaq5000 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l 102% l 360 4.8 -8.8 25.1 -0.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 5.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.4 -1.9 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/2/13 118.75 $1229.43 2.050% $52.78 $1.1394
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 10.6 4.2 3.8 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 7 : Bloomberg 2015/2/13 ==225=
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (12.1%) 21 (4.2%) (3.8%)
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1100 19991 2.2% 0.94%1.43% 19976 5 6% QE 4.48% 2910G20 24 6.63% 480 ( ) 3830 () 3868 () 8360 () () ( ) 0423 () 0424 () ()- ( ) 4530 () 4584 () 4532 () 4533 () 2015/2/9
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. IMF2016 10 GDP7.5% 7.3% GDP GDP 7 7 5% 85 10 2015/2/10 - 4005 () 2422 ()
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 111 9 16 QE 11 20145 12%2181 3 () 2695 () 8925 () 2015/2/12
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/2/13()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/2/13 ()
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2 2/16() 2014GDP 0.9% -0.5% 2/17() 1 0.4% 0.5% 2ZEW 55.0 48.4 2/18() 1 0.3% -0.1% 1 107.0 108.9 2/19() 1 0.3% 0.5% 2 -7.5 -8.5 2/20() 2 53.6 53.9 2 51.5 51.0 2 51.5 50.9
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 100QE 16 QE 4050 OPEC
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) 159 MSCI (40%) QE QE (2015/2/16)
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1 6 0.3% 201440.3% 0.2%4 0.7%0.3%20141.6% 211
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 0%0.1% 10012 152%0.1% 20162%
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 11SLF1012 16001 CPI5 M220151CPI0.8% 1.0%2009113 1 1CPI 11.476 1(M2)10.8% M2 MSCI12MSCI12 MSCI
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 417 1215 15 4 16
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 12 502.8 498.3 484.7 1 4.9 -- 7.3 1NFIB 97.9 101.0 100.4 1 -0.8% -0.4% -0.9% 2 93.6 98.1 98.1 2014GDP 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 2014GDP 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2sentix 12.4 3.0 0.9 12 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2014GDP 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1 -0.4% -0.3% -0.3% : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1 0.8% 1.0% 1.5% 1 -4.3% -3.8% -3.3% 1 1.47 1.35 0.70 1M2 10.8% 12.1% 12.2% 12 8.3% 2.3% 1.3% 2014GDP 7.4% 6.6% 6.9% 1 5.11% 5.50% 5.00% 12 0.3% 2.4% 1.4% 12() 129 107 134 2014GDP 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 1 -1.3% -1.2% -1.0% 12 2.3% -0.4% -2.7% 12 0.9% 0.5% -1.1% : Bloomberg
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1752.18 1.84 4.60 2.04 2.21 2.49 6.19 2096.99 2.02 3.84 2.80 7.26 1.85 14.05 1223.13 1.47 3.95 4.20 7.14 1.53 6.43 377.07 1.01 7.00 12.35 14.36 10.08 13.13 256.61 1.82 7.99 15.59 16.19 11.14 10.14 225 17913.36 1.50 6.22 2.42 16.94 2.65 25.15 4420.71 0.88 0.44 7.46 13.65 0.67 25.11 3203.83 4.16 -5.11 29.25 43.88 -0.95 51.42 MSCI 986.65 0.83 3.05 -0.42 -8.18 3.17 3.06 MSCI 474.78 0.39 2.72 3.03 -2.60 3.78 10.53 MSCI 321.78 6.62 8.89 -8.01 -19.97 8.50 -23.24 MSCI 2647.59 1.09 -0.57 -9.35 -23.64 -2.94 -11.12 MSCI 288.91 2.25 7.80 -4.25 -11.43 6.70 -7.81 Bloomberg 122.06 -0.46 -0.77 1.92 2.86 0.75 5.21 Bloomberg 133.68 0.17 0.82 1.60 3.36 1.02 7.52 Bloomberg 138.40 -0.38 -0.28 2.19 2.41 1.23 6.71 Bloomberg 147.25 0.51 1.28 -2.12 -3.64 0.63 -0.80 Bloomberg 152.52 0.42 1.97 -0.96 -1.34 1.79 2.00 Bloomberg 161.39 0.34 1.32 1.39 2.50 1.58 5.72 ETF 47.69 1.62 2.78 -0.96 -2.10 1.71 1.28 Bloomberg 142.32 0.13 1.37 -1.08 -0.48 1.06 6.05 Bloomberg 126.01 -0.31 0.51 -0.78 -0.16 1.28 5.40 Bloomberg 150.87 -0.39 1.47 3.09 6.59 2.29 14.70 Bloomberg 2015/2/13
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 243.55 2.10 7.84 -5.86 -17.22 2.41 -9.07 MSCI 236.18 3.08 8.43 3.33 -5.48 5.89 -3.17 MSCI 102.89 1.51 4.95 0.05 0.35 0.13 2.40 MSCI 194.03 2.47 7.29 7.41 8.58 4.20 8.88 MSCI 205.39 0.59 1.46 2.72 5.03 2.74 10.87 MSCI 203.56 1.71 5.23 1.68 1.93 2.13 3.08 MSCI 145.33 3.92 5.81 3.69 8.51 2.87 17.23 MSCI 71.59 0.63 4.31 -0.11 1.79 4.72 3.80 MSCI 118.72 -1.93 -3.28 -3.28 -0.38 -3.53 4.22 MSCI 208.07 1.33 1.01 4.65 10.93 4.09 15.59 NBI 3384.10 2.32 1.78 12.24 22.84 6.50 25.68 AMEX 190.94 -1.00 -4.94 13.28 -22.28 16.41 -21.35 REITs FTSE 14911.93 -0.02 -2.17 9.03 12.98 4.66 25.88 REITs FTSE 1822.35 -0.13 -2.73 9.92 14.32 4.97 27.43 REITs FTSE 1463.90 -0.14 7.83 22.37 24.94 16.82 39.25 REITs FTSE 1571.83 -1.03 -1.06 4.09 0.98 3.34 17.39 (/) 1229.43 -0.36 -0.11 5.76 -6.36 3.76 -5.64 (/) 17.36 3.81 1.82 10.87 -12.44 10.51 -15.28 (/) 5735.00 1.50 -2.13 -13.85 -16.70 -8.97 -19.34 (/) 61.52 6.44 32.05 -21.05 -41.00 7.31 -43.42 (/) 52.78 2.11 15.01 -28.88 -45.92 -0.92 -47.40 CRB 229.19 1.93 2.21 -14.09 -20.95 -0.33 -21.84 929.44 1.11 -1.28 -4.12 -4.98 -3.65 -12.51 : Bloomberg 2015/2/13
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.1394 0.69 -3.22 -8.68 -14.74 -5.82 -16.72 118.75 0.31 -0.69 -2.51 -13.75 0.87 -13.96 1.5395 1.00 1.55 -2.01 -7.75 -1.17 -7.59 0.9322 -0.58 9.43 3.36 -2.65 6.66 -4.16 1.2448 0.63 -3.93 -8.68 -12.32 -6.64 -11.82 0.7762 -0.44 -4.95 -11.02 -16.58 -5.05 -13.55 1096.88 -0.65 -1.23 -0.01 -6.15 -0.54 -2.79 31.4470 0.01 1.25 -2.62 -4.49 0.66 -3.45 6.2405 0.07 -0.66 -1.83 -1.38 -0.56 -2.83 12798.00 -1.40 -1.54 -4.63 -8.63 -3.20 -6.39 62.1963 -0.80 -0.08 -1.02 -1.56 1.36 0.40 32.6100 0.13 0.61 0.58 -2.02 0.92 -0.11 1.3552 -0.16 -1.61 -4.68 -7.80 -2.19 -6.66 3.5795 -0.92 0.43 -6.72 -10.78 -2.30 -7.18 44.2850 -0.24 1.08 1.30 -0.72 0.98 1.32 11.6660 -1.41 -1.17 -3.91 -9.40 -0.82 -6.00 2.4571 0.71 -6.99 -8.75 -12.22 -4.97 -11.11 63.4417 5.11 2.79 -26.64 -43.27 -4.26 -44.56 3.6737 -0.02 -1.00 -7.52 -14.67 -3.54 -17.22 268.96 0.53 0.60 -8.90 -12.76 -2.72 -15.52 3.9028 0.00 -2.27 -9.04 -14.95 -5.15 -15.91 2.8347 -1.90 -6.76 -8.67 -19.51 -6.25 -15.56 14.8852 -0.25 -1.82 -8.61 -11.75 -0.90 -10.92 8.6827 -0.27 -1.05 -2.00 -4.71 -2.51 -10.27 : Bloomberg 2015/2/13
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 2.6478 11.9 14.9 -42.3 -59.5 -10.4 -103.5 10 2.0504 9.4 15.0 -29.0 -36.6 -12.1 -68.2 0.4240 8.5 15.6 -7.8 -9.1 9.5 -18.0 0.3420 -3.3 -13.5 -45.7 -68.5 -19.9 -132.5 0.3420 -3.3 -13.5 -45.7 -68.5 -19.9 -132.5 0.6450 3.1 -9.4 -51.9 -78.1 -18.1 -162.3 1.6070 2.9 -21.0 -77.0 -110.4 -28.3 -210.2 1.5510 6.2 -9.2 -58.8 -102.0 -6.0 -207.1 2.3860 -2.8 -27.0 -82.4 -128.9 -30.1 -263.2 2.1810 -3.0 -15.3 -33.0 -111.8 -33.7 -236.0 7.6200 0.0 41.0 -101.0 -180.0 -40.0 -255.0 11.7995 -59.4 -275.9 161.3 235.6 -120.7 352.0 3.0300 3.0 -36.0 -66.0 -195.0 -57.0 -296.0 7.5550 10.6 -1.9 -34.0 -75.5 -41.4 -119.9 12.6390 17.8 43.0 -26.5 60.0 27.5 176.3 5.6650 4.9 1.1 -26.8 -4.8 -17.9 -70.7 2.3970 13.0 -3.6 -38.0 -67.3 -20.8 -109.5 7.4950 33.9 -32.5 -48.2 -74.2 -30.1 -128.3 7.6980 -0.6 -7.2 -52.5 -84.7 -15.9 -117.0 9 2.6800 15.9 28.3 -15.5 -74.8 7.9 -124.6 : Bloomberg 2015/2/13
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 103027
  29. 29. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.