& 2016 forecast. hidden falls: extremely poor returns for all species medvejie: very strong...
TRANSCRIPT
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NSRAA 2015 RETURNS&
2016 Forecast
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2015 Returns Overview
Hidden Falls: Extremely Poor returns for all species
Medvejie: Very Strong chum; Good Chinook; Average coho
Deer Lake: Average coho Southeast Cove: First Adults; 3-year-old return
promising
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2015 CHUM
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Numbers : 2.8 Million ChumSite Troll Gillnet Seine Sport CR Rack Total
Deep Inlet
231,116 694,033 1,398,018 29 111,505 2,434,701
Hidden Falls
49,417 242,938 292,355
Southeast Cove
13,428 13,428
Haines 13,520 20,280 33,800
Total 231,116 707,553 1,447,435 13,467 354,443 2,774,284
8% 26% 52% 0% 14%
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Chum returns compared to forecast
Deep Inlet: 182% Hidden Falls: 28%
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Chum Marine Survival compared to SSRAA / DIPAC
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Chum Marine Survival compared to SSRAA / DIPAC
NSRAA’s chum programs have struggled during the past 7 brood years, especially at Hidden Falls.
We are hoping that improved 3-yr-old returns in 2015 and early signs of success in our 4.0 production point to a turn-around.
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Chum Marine Survival compared to SSRAA / DIPAC
Note: ranges are Brood years
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2015 CHINOOK
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Numbers : 30,000 ChinookSite Troll Gillnet Seine Sport CR Rack Total
Medvejie/ Deep Inlet
9,632 3,252 3,455 1,574 2,725 6,420 27,058
Hidden Falls
746 117 798 367 0 754 2,784
Total 10,378 3,370 4,254 1,941 2,725 7,174 29,842
35% 11% 14% 7% 9% 24%
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NSRAA Troll Contribution
NSRAA contributed 10,321 Chinook to the SE Alaska Troll Fishery which is 3.8% of the total Chinook catch.
Estimated Value = $681,000
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Deep Inlet Chinook Fishery
Deep Inlet harvest was 6,919 Chinook in 2015.
Estimated Value = $433,000
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Hidden Falls Seine Chinook
Hidden Falls seine harvest was 678 Chinook in 2015.
Estimated Value = $53,000
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2015 COHO
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Numbers : 203,000 CohoSite Troll Gillnet Seine Sport CR Rack Total
Deer Lake
Cliff Lake
69,062
496
0 2,293 2,636 56,853 12,373 143,216
Hidden Falls
15,698 130 807 889 13,595 14,336 45,455
Medvejie / Deep Inlet
9,498 681 2,118 983 0 1,075 14,354
Total 94,754 810 5,217 4,508 70,448 27,784 203,521
47% 0.4% 3% 2% 35% 14%
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Coho returns compared to forecast
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Coho Marine Survival
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2015 VALUE
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2015 COMMERCIAL VALUE
Chum; 8501722.2110
0733; 83%
Coho; 595761.713;
6%
Chinook; 1152317.394; 11%
2015 Species Splits
Chum
Coho
Chinook
2015 Value – includes cooperative chum projects• $10.25 million ($8.25 million in 2014) pre- HF assessment adjustment
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2015 COMMERCIAL VALUE
Troll; 2070326.68;
20%
Seine; 5438384.2010073
4; 53%
Gillnet; 2741090.43
7; 27%
2015 Gear Splits
Troll
Seine
Gillnet
2015 Value – includes cooperative chum projects• $10.25 million ($8.25 million in 2014) pre- HF assessment adjustment
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2015 COMMERCIAL VALUE
History by gear – includes cooperative chum projects• $10.25 million ($8.25 million in 2014) pre- HF assessment adjustment
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2015 COST RECOVERY
CR = Regular cost recovery (fish sales only) .Assess = Hidden Falls assessment. $102,000 in 2012 / $1,793,000 in 2013 / $364,500 in 2014 / $0.00 in 2015.
NSE FUND (DIPAC FUNDING) reduced CR significantly for the third year in a row:$1.5 M in 2013 / $2.5 M in 2014 / $2.0 M in 2015
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2015 COST RECOVERY
Regular cost recovery (fish sales only) : $714,524Initial cost recovery harvest at Southeast Cove...Mixed NSRAA and Gunnuk Creek Hatchery Production… We split revenue with State of Alaska Division of Economic Development (DED) based on otolith sampling… NSRAA portion = 21% of total.
$102,041.
80
$100,238.65
$101.00 $468,377.75
$43,764.59
CR Fish
Hidden Falls Chum
Hidden Falls Coho
Medvejie Chinook
Medvejie Chum
Mist Cove Coho
SE Cove Chum
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2016 FORECAST - CHUM
Deep Inlet chum – 1,782,000 projection is about 75% of the 2015 return Hidden Falls chum – 1,433,000 projection is about 490% of the 2015 return. Let’s hope the 4.0 data and 3-year-old numbers equate to a large 4-yr-old return in 2016.
Southeast Cove chum – 165,700 projection. All fry were 4.0’s; strong 3-yr-old return.
Haines chum – 31,000 (est. 33,800 in 2015)
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2016 FORECAST - CHINOOK
Medvejie Chinook – 31,200 projection is about 4,000 fish above 2015 return
Hidden Falls Chinook – 5,400 projection is about 2,800 fish above 2015 return
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2016 FORECAST - COHO
Deer Lake Coho – 150,000 - projection is about 103% of 2015 return
Hidden Falls Coho – 194,000 - projection is about 425% of 2015 return
Medvejie/Deep Inlet Coho – 62,000 - projection is about 280% of 2015 return
Banner Lake (BY 13) fry stocking - 2,000Cliff Lake (BY12) fry stocking - 2,000 (500 in 2015)
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OTOLITHS
3,3,3H
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OTOLITHS
3,3,3HThis otolith mark was on 49% of the chum in the 2015 Deep Inlet/ Bear Cove return. It is the mark put on the DIMV11 group: DI – Medvejie stock – BY 2011.
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OTOLITHSEach rearing group is given a unique mark. We found marks from 18 NSRAA release groups in 2015 sampling.
Mark ID >
2015 Age Class>
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OTOLITHSEach rearing group is given a unique mark. We found marks from 18 NSRAA release groups in 2015 sampling.
Mark ID >
2015 Age Class>
HF stock rel. at DI Med stock rel. at Bear Cove
Med stock rel. at DI
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OTOLITHS
?? Questions, Questions ??
1. What is the contribution of the Hidden Falls stock?
2. What is the contribution of the Medvejie stock at Deep Inlet? Bear Cove?
3. How do survival rates compare for the 4.0 groups vs. the regular groups so far? Is the 4.0 program working?
4. Do any Deep Inlet fish return to the Medvejie Rack?
5. How many Bear Cove released fish are intercepted in the Deep Inlet and Troll fisheries?
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OTOLITHS
?? Questions, Questions ??
6. What is the age composition of the return?
7. How does the age comp compare with scale aging?
8. Do Bear Cove releases survive at the same rate as Deep Inlet releases for the Medvejie stock?
9. How many non-NSRAA fish are in the fishery?
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OTOLITHS
?? QUESTIONS ??
Prior to otolith marking, we could only make educated guesses at best for many of these questions.
In most cases we could only speculate.
Otolith sampling gives us a much better grasp on what is happening with different stocks, release sites, and rearing strategies as well as insight into the makeup of the fisheries.
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OTOLITHS
2015 Hidden Falls stock contribution at Deep Inlet.
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OTOLITHS
2015 Medvejie stock contribution: Bear Cove and Deep Inlet release groups.Note “LL” designates Late-Large or what we call the 4.0 program.
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OTOLITHS
2015 Medvejie stock contribution: Deep Inlet release groups.
1.2 million BY11 fours - Medvejie “Regular” rearing!
146,000 BY12 LL 3-year-old return from 8 million release 58,000 BY12 Reg. 3-year-old return from 22 million release
DIMV11 - This single group = 51% of DI return; value estimate of $4.2M, or 41% of total 2015 $10.25M commercial value for all species.
DIMV11 –Regular rearing24.2 million fry1.55g release sizeRel. dates (6) from 4/30-5/9/2012
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OTOLITHS
2015 Medvejie stock contribution: Bear Cove release groups.
120,000 BY11 fours - Medvejie “Regular” rearing.
78,000 BY11 LL 4-year-old return from 4.6 million release119,000 BY11 Reg. 4-year-old return from 14.4 million release
77,000 BY12 LL 3-year-old return from 4.6 million release 9,600 BY12 Reg. 3-year-old return from 13.5 million release
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OTOLITHS
2015 Compare 4.0 and Regular release groups
Age 3 (BY12) Bear Cove: 9:1Age 3 (BY12) Deep Inlet: 8:1
Age 4 (BY 11) Deep Inlet 2:1
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OTOLITHS
Rough estimate of final marine survival of BY11 Bear Cove chum based on 4-year-old return.
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OTOLITHS
Other insights:
73 % of Bear Cove fish were caught in the fishery
2% of Deep Inlet fish were caught at the rack
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OTOLITHS
2015 Hidden Falls
Despite the poor return, we did gain some insight into rearing strategies.
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OTOLITHS
2015 Hidden Falls
4.0 outperformed regular rearing at both sites for both BYs with 4.0 releases.
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OTOLITHS
2015 Hidden Falls
4.0 outperformed regular rearing at both sites for both BYs with 4.0 releases….by a much wider margin at Takatz.
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OTOLITHS
2015 Hidden Falls
Rough estimate of final marine survival for BY11 groups.
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OTOLITHS
Other insights:
Takatz fish will find their way back to the hatchery: 57% of the rack fish were Takatz fish.
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OTOLITHS
2015 Hidden Falls
Comparison between release sites.
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OTOLITHS
SE COVE
First 3-yr olds returned in 2015
Outperformed KAKE BY 12 by a wide margin.
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OTOLITHS
2015 CREW
Duncan Coltharp
Zachery Papovich
Ben Adams