詹姆士看天下 2017/01/03

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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 1 2017/01/03

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  1. 1. 1 2017/01/03
  2. 2. 2 : Bloomberg 2016/12/30 (%) 9/05 3.95 3.89 6.48 % % 5.10 -1.64 0.08 0.14 0.25 0.38 0.46 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.73 -2 -1 0 1
  3. 3. 3 Bloomberg1bp=0.01% :2016/12/30 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 3.89 381 378 297 6.48 421 420 335 5.10 304 303 277 3.95 193 201 181 () () ()( ) ()
  4. 4. 4 : Bloomberg 2016/12/30 MSCI MSCI (%) 4.0 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.4 1.7 1.7 -1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -2 0 2 4 6
  5. 5. 5 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2 -0.5-0.5-0.6 -0.8-1 -1 0 1 1 2 2 3 CRB -9.3 -3.2 -1.0 -10 -4 2 : Bloomberg 2016/12/30 (%) (bp) 0.189 0.046 2.444 $1.0455 $53.72 117.55 $1152.15 102.78
  6. 6. 6 : Bloomberg 2016/12/30 ==225= (%) 5.4 3.9 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -1.6-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
  7. 7. 7 (5.16%)8.5%Q1 (3.93%) (-1.10%)11I7 (-1.61%)
  8. 8. 8 Bloomberg
  9. 9. 9 ()Bloomberg : 2016/12/30()
  10. 10. 10 () Bloomberg : 2016/12/30()
  11. 11. 11 : Bloomberg 01/02 () 12MarkitPMI 54.9 54.9 12PMI 50.9 50.9 12PMI -- 52.3 12MarkitPMI -- 46.2 01/03() 12MarkitPMI 54.2 54.2 01/04 () 12MarkitPMI 54.9 54.9 12CPI 1.0% 0.6% 01/05 () 12PMI 53.4 53.4 11 0.3% -7.3% 01/06 () 12 17.5 17.8 12 -5.8 -5.1 11 3.7% 6.3%
  12. 12. 12 PMIISM 0.34%EPFR12/28 0.51%0.23% Q1
  13. 13. 13 12109.4113.720018 5.6%2014 OECD20172.3%20183%500 12% 1 CNNMoney15 500 5%
  14. 14. 14 14,969 60%89% 82%79%62% 112009 ECB ECB112.2%102.1% 2009101.8%1.9% 2011
  15. 15. 15 2017 2016 2017 14 21 8.51.5 IS IS
  16. 16. 16 56 1.1% 60 EU 13
  17. 17. 17 12 113.7 109.0 107.1 12PMI 54.6 56.8 57.6 11() 344.7 347.6 347.8 : Bloomberg
  18. 18. 18 11 1.7% 0.8% -0.1% 11CPI 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 11 4.6% 4.7% -1.4% 11 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 12PMI 52.0 52.0 53.6 Q3GDP -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% 11GDP 43.8% 43.9% 44.2% 11() -41 -41 -41.6 : Bloomberg
  19. 19. 19 (%) MSCI 1753.09 -0.34 2.58 1.59 5.59 0.11 5.43 2238.83 -1.10 2.14 3.25 6.46 0.00 9.54 1357.13 -1.05 3.26 8.43 17.32 0.00 19.48 363.18 0.89 7.02 5.81 9.31 0.49 -0.72 259.19 1.49 6.59 4.34 11.17 0.73 -0.92 225 19114.37 -1.61 3.74 16.20 21.88 0.00 0.42 5229.90 2.21 7.74 18.16 25.57 0.00 10.57 3103.64 -0.21 -4.32 3.29 5.84 0.00 -12.31 MSCI 861.88 2.41 1.03 -4.60 2.70 -0.05 8.53 MSCI 419.17 1.98 -0.82 -6.33 2.20 0.05 3.86 MSCI 297.00 2.85 8.27 8.87 11.85 0.01 21.51 MSCI 2326.53 2.71 3.48 -2.28 1.84 -0.60 27.15 MSCI 244.76 4.04 7.49 1.40 5.65 0.00 16.44 Bloomberg 123.57 0.55 0.01 -3.71 -4.13 0.02 1.06 Bloomberg 137.64 0.17 0.72 -1.38 0.18 0.09 4.54 Bloomberg 143.70 0.75 0.75 -2.93 -1.83 0.01 5.96 Bloomberg 160.18 0.41 1.58 0.51 5.42 0.03 14.81 Bloomberg 169.83 0.28 1.80 1.58 6.77 0.03 17.44 Bloomberg 173.22 0.18 1.77 1.70 4.72 0.04 8.70 ETF 45.65 -1.64 1.58 -1.53 4.49 0.00 5.48 Bloomberg 155.59 0.55 1.69 -2.72 -0.08 0.03 10.83 Bloomberg 122.67 0.57 -0.67 -6.32 -3.58 0.11 0.69 Bloomberg 160.05 0.56 0.63 -5.48 -2.80 0.02 7.92 Bloomberg 2016/12/30
  20. 20. 20 (%) () MSCI 219.15 -0.31 2.56 6.76 6.79 0.07 22.88 MSCI 222.16 0.76 1.03 2.82 11.22 0.13 20.30 MSCI 106.30 -0.59 3.08 14.23 21.33 0.11 9.57 MSCI 196.73 -0.70 1.80 1.80 6.59 0.15 1.61 MSCI 207.67 0.20 3.32 -5.95 -7.09 0.06 -0.35 MSCI 212.82 -0.56 0.61 2.04 7.38 0.16 10.95 MSCI 161.30 -1.14 3.29 -0.01 12.53 0.04 10.19 MSCI 69.64 0.00 6.24 -2.05 -5.73 0.16 2.52 MSCI 115.13 0.30 4.54 4.54 -7.64 0.15 3.10 MSCI 193.06 -0.02 2.27 -5.48 -6.31 0.12 -8.16 NBI 2772.73 -2.72 -2.02 -8.40 0.90 0.00 -21.68 AMEX 182.31 7.90 -0.59 -21.12 -29.60 0.00 63.98 REITs FTSE 15914.73 1.63 4.97 -3.28 -4.55 0.00 8.63 REITs FTSE 1925.17 2.06 5.14 -1.64 -4.40 0.00 7.58 REITs FTSE 1324.34 1.47 7.86 -1.10 1.88 0.25 -8.91 REITs FTSE 1672.89 2.78 2.79 -9.24 -8.12 0.00 13.19 (/) 1152.15 1.61 -1.80 -11.94 -13.84 0.33 8.92 (/) 15.93 1.11 -4.05 -14.57 -20.91 0.92 15.86 (/) 5535.50 1.22 -3.90 13.78 12.72 0.00 17.65 (/) 56.82 3.01 4.87 12.22 13.43 0.51 53.19 (/) 53.72 1.32 4.59 10.74 10.33 0.61 45.92 CRB 192.51 1.04 0.43 3.33 -0.90 0.00 9.29 840.98 1.91 0.25 2.33 -2.90 2.06 1.87 : Bloomberg 2016/12/30
  21. 21. 21 (%) 1.0455 -0.01 -2.64 -6.52 -6.04 -0.35 -3.24 117.55 -0.19 -2.93 -13.33 -12.56 -0.28 1.83 1.2278 -0.03 -3.42 -4.24 -7.45 -0.35 -16.44 1.0235 0.29 -1.51 -4.73 -4.98 -0.27 -1.93 1.3443 0.67 -1.21 -2.34 -4.38 0.05 3.86 0.7184 0.11 -3.61 -6.16 -4.46 -0.08 0.15 1208.03 -0.43 -2.95 -8.89 -5.25 -0.38 -1.88 32.3180 -0.49 -0.87 -3.08 -0.41 0.01 2.27 6.9450 0.02 -1.05 -4.06 -4.15 -0.13 -6.05 13473.00 -0.16 -0.28 -3.67 -2.62 -0.04 3.45 68.2275 -0.59 0.00 -2.41 -1.41 -0.45 -2.36 35.8250 0.41 -0.62 -3.34 -2.22 -0.04 0.80 1.4507 -0.23 -2.05 -5.77 -7.12 -0.13 -1.69 4.4862 -0.27 -0.98 -8.42 -11.04 -0.14 -3.24 49.6530 0.10 -0.25 -3.24 -5.85 -0.35 -5.34 13.7351 1.88 -0.13 -1.07 5.99 -0.03 13.33 3.5441 -0.76 -0.50 -14.77 -17.93 -0.52 -16.31 61.1499 0.38 4.29 1.87 4.79 0.56 19.21 4.2205 -0.11 -0.72 -8.98 -5.53 -0.54 -5.69 295.83 0.00 -1.18 -6.97 -3.69 -0.22 -1.52 4.3420 -0.18 -3.49 -8.34 -6.52 -0.43 -3.56 3.2859 -0.48 5.81 -2.31 -0.50 -0.93 22.95 20.7334 -0.60 -0.73 -7.03 -11.21 -0.09 -16.56 15.9395 -2.93 -0.06 -4.67 -5.79 -0.37 -17.27 : Bloomberg 2016/12/30
  22. 22. 22 (%) () (bp) 30 3.0651 -4.9 0.4 75.0 84.0 0.0 4.9 10 2.4443 -9.3 6.1 85.0 100.0 0.0 17.5 0.0460 -1.0 0.6 13.5 29.9 0.0 -21.9 0.1890 -3.2 -9.2 30.8 31.5 -1.9 -44.0 0.6700 -2.4 -4.9 48.4 51.2 -1.6 -31.8 1.7430 -7.9 -15.9 55.5 51.3 -7.2 14.7 1.3320 -4.5 -21.1 45.2 18.2 -5.2 -43.9 3.7050 -4.5 0.8 37.5 69.0 -5.9 118.9 3.7150 28.6 -10.4 79.6 83.2 8.2 77.2 11.5000 37.0 14.0 178.0 248.0 11.0 76.0 8.4595 -8.9 -40.4 29.9 16.8 -109.5 -109.5 3.1600 2.0 -37.0 29.0 16.0 0.0 -17.0 8.9240 -5.7 -10.9 25.6 9.2 -87.1 -73.8 11.2390 -21.8 -111.4 -34.5 -93.3 -16.2 -527.3 7.4670 5.2 11.6 141.0 154.9 3.1 119.0 2.0470 -6.8 -21.3 62.3 64.9 -4.5 -3.8 7.9730 8.1 -8.7 95.5 59.7 0.0 -78.4 * 6.5150 -2.9 27.2 -30.2 -90.4 0.0 -121.5 2.6480 -22.0 -4.0 54.8 69.8 14.8 14.8 : Bloomberg 2016/12/30 *
  23. 23. 23 2008 2014 -26.69% -5.61% -36.09% -7.28% -20.81% -- -18.82% -5.58% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% Bloomberg() 2016/12/30 %
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