경제주평 2018년 한국 경제 전망 170929 -...
TRANSCRIPT
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2018
- 2%
17-39( 764) 2017.09.29
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v
2018
- 2%
Executive Summary
1. 1
2. 9
3. 2018 13
4. 18
, .
:
:
(2072-6235, [email protected])
(2072-6214, [email protected])
(2072-6220,[email protected] ) 5
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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2018
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Executive Summary
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ii
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2018
. 2018
2017 680 .
< 2018 >
20162017 2018(E)
(E) (E)
(%) 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.5 (%) 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.3 (%) 10.7 9.4 2.1 5.5 0.4 0.6 0.1 (%) 2.3 15.9 5.2 10.4 3.4 5.6 4.5
(%) 5.9 15.7 12.0 13.8 5.0 6.0 5.5 (%) 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.8 (%) 1.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0
: , , , 2017, 2018 .
3%
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-
2018
1
1.
( ) 2017 2 ,
- 2017 2 0.6%( 2.7%) 11.1% 0.5%p
2 2.9% ,
1 6.8% 2 0.3%
GDP() 1
0.4% 2 1.0%
-
4
: 17.4 101.0p, 5 100.8p, 6 100.7p, 7 100.7p, 8 100.8p
: 17.4 101.0p, 5 101.2p, 6 101.6p, 7 101.8p, 8 101.8p
< > < >
: . : .
-
2018
2
( )
-
(YoY): 17.4 2.6%, 5 1.4%, 6 1.1%, 7 3.5%, 8 0.8%
(YoY): 17.4 5.8%, 5 6.2%, 6 1.6%, 7 11.8%, 8 5.6%
-
4, 5
7
(YoY): 17.4 3.0%, 5 6.6%, 6 6.9%, 712.4%, 8 2.5%
(YoY): 17.4 3.0%, 5 2.3%, 6 10.0%, 7 0.9%, 8 11.7%
< > < >
: . : . : 6 .
-
2018
3
( ) 3
-
8 13.2% 7(25.1%)
(YoY): 17.4 14.3%, 5 20.0%, 6 18.6%, 725.1%, 8 13.2%
2 (7 5.1% 8 0.3%)
(MoM): 17.4 3.9%, 5 2.2%, 6 4.8%, 7 5.1%, 8 0.3%
-
16
< > < >
: . : , . : 3.
-
2018
4
( )
-
8 12.7% 7(17.5%)
(YoY): 17.4 24.4%, 5 20.4%, 6 12.7%, 7 17.5% 8 12.7%
8 22.5%
9.3%
(YoY): 17.5 4.4%, 6 3.4%, 7 0.6%, 8 9.3%
(YoY): 17.5 29.2%, 6 23.8%, 7 26.0% 8 22.5%
- ()
,
() 8 3.4% 2
(YoY): 17.4 34.2%, 5 18.3%, 6 0.4%, 729.5%, 8 3.4%
(YoY): 17.5 30.1%, 6 74.7%, 7 31.4%, 8 6.2%
(YoY): 17.5 33.3%, 6 14.7%, 7 22.2%, 8 2.7%
< > < >
: . : .
-
2018
5
( )
,
- 8 11 10 ,
8
16
11
: 17.4 23.8%, 5 13.1%, 6 13.4%, 7 19.5%, 8 17.3%
: 17.4 8.4%, 5 6.3%, 6 2.0%, 7 1.3%, 8 8.2%
- 8
, 4
25%
8
: 17. 5 7.3%, 6 4.9%, 7 6.5%, 8 15.5% 8 23.5%, EU 43.1%,
23.1%
< > < >
: , . : .
-
2018
6
( )
20
- 8 (16 8) 8
1)2017 8 3.6% 3.6% , 8
61.1% (61.0%)
-
8
() 20 40
20
6
(YoY): 17.4 42.4, 5 37.5, 6 30.1, 7 31.3, 8 21.2
: 17.4 6.2, 5 2.5, 6 1.6, 7 5.0, 8 2.5
8 13.8 ,
3.4
< > < >
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1) .
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2018
7
( ) 3
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7
8 9.0% 7 5.5%
(YoY): 17.4 9.2%, 5 4.1%, 6 2.0%, 7 5.5%, 8 9.0%
8 3.2% 7 3.0%
(YoY): 17.4 3.8%, 5 3.4%, 6 2.8%, 7 3.0%, 8 3.2%
- , ,
9 2.1% 8 2.6%
(YoY): 17.4 1.9%, 5 2.0%, 6 1.9%, 7 2.2%, 8 2.6%, 9 2.1%
9 2) 2.9% 8 3.7%
(YoY): 17.4 2.5%, 5 2.5%, 6 2.3%, 7 3.1%, 8 3.7%, 9 2.9%
< > < >
: . : .
2)
141 .
-
2018
8
( )
,
-
CSI
2017 1 50p 80p
CSI: 17.5 82p, 6 93p, 7 96p, 8 93p, 9 87p CSI 5
CSI: 17.5 111p, 6 112p, 7 109p, 8 104p, 9 96p
-
BSI() 6 ,
BSI: 17.5 91.7p, 6 99.1p, 7 95.6p, 8 92.4p, 9 94.4p, 10 92.3p
BSI() 80p
BSI: 17.5 81p, 6 82p, 7 78p, 8 78p, 9 80p, 10 79p
< (CCSI) > < (BSI) >
: . : , .
-
2018
9
2.
:
() 2017 ,
- : ,
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< >(%)
20152016 2017
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 1/4 2/4
3.4 - - - - 3.2 - -
2.1 - - - - 1.7 - -
2.6 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.2 3.0
2.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.8 0.5 0.6
1.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.0
4.3 - - - - 4.3 - -
6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9
8.0 9.1 7.9 7.5 7.0 7.1 6.1 5.7
3.8 5.4 3.6 2.9 2.5 3.6 0.4 0.3
2.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 2.5
ASEAN-5 4.9 - - - - 4.9 - -
2.6 - - - - 2.3 - -
1) (IMF. World Economic Outlook. 2017 7).
2) (: ; : ; : Eurostat ; : ;
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2) ASEAN-5 , , , , .
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2018
10
() 2018
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< IMF >
(%)
2017(E) 2018(E)
2017.7
2017.4
2017.1
2017.7
2017.4
2017.1
3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5
4.6 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.2ASEAN-5 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2
4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1
: IMF.
-
2018
11
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() 2017
- OPEC ,
1 OPEC
2 ,
5
() 2018
- 2018
,
< WTI >
(/)
2015 20162017 2018(E)
(E) (E)
WTI 48.8 43.5 50.0 47.8 48.9 48.0 51.2 49.6
: , EIA(2017.8, STEO).
1) 2017 .
2) 2017 (EIA) .
-
2018
12
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() 2017 , ,
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( ) 2017 1 101.2p 8 93.2p
- : , ECB
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2017 1 0.942 8 0.846
2017 1 115.1 8 109.7
() 2018 , , ,
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ECB
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< >
/ / /
2017 6 12 2017 6 12 2017 6 12
0.90 0.84 0.83 111.9 113.7 110.3 6.81 6.70 6.73
- 0.87 0.87 - 120.0 125.0 - 7.05 7.10
- 0.81 0.79 - 109.0 107.0 - 6.47 6.50
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2018
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3. 2018
2018 2017
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2018
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2014 2017
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2018 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.1%
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2018
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2018 3.4%, 5.6%, 4.5%
< 2018 () >
20162017 2018(E)
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2017 851
2018 5.0%, 6.0%, 5.5%
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2018
2017
2018 330 , 350 , 680
< 2018 >
20162017 2018(E)
(E) (E)
( ) 987 363 367 730 330 350 680
( ) 892 449 493 942 413 438 851
(%) 5.9 15.7 12.0 13.8 5.0 6.0 5.5
(%) 6.9 21.3 10.5 15.6 7.5 9.6 8.5
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2018
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2017
2018
2018 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.0%
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2018
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(E) (E)
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(%) 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.8
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2018
([email protected], 02-2072-6235)
([email protected], 02-2072-6214)
([email protected], 02-2072-6220)
([email protected], 02-2072-6217)
([email protected], 02-2072-6247)
([email protected], 02-2072-6239)
([email protected], 02-2072-6211)
([email protected],02-2072-6240)