當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

11
YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 市場走勢 由於大型股的上漲,各指數當天繼續強勁上漲。VN-Index 分別收 於當日最高水平,上漲 0.61%,報 1417.08 點。HNX-Index 上漲 0.74%,收於 325.72 點;Upcom-Index 保持同步,並略有上漲。3 個市場的交易額達 28 兆 7750 億越南盾,較前一交易日大幅增 長。 市場廣度是積極,189 檔股票上漲,147 檔下跌,反映了市場更 傾於上漲的走勢。大型股繼續強勁向積極的方向波動,VPB (+4%)、MSN (+2.7%)、HDB (+2.7%)、HPG (+2.5%) 領漲指數。然 而,最引人注目的是證券股,如 SSI (+4.5%)、HCM (+5.7%)、VCI (+4.2%)、SHS (+6.6%)、BSI (+9.8%) 等均強勁上漲。相反,油氣 板塊表現弱於大盤,PVS、PVD、PVC 和 PVT 在過去 4.5 個交易 日大幅下跌。 外資當天賣超 2570 億越南盾。賣壓集中在 VPB(3380 億)、 CTG(2980 億)、NVL(570 億)。另一方面,VCB(770 億)、MSN(450 億)、E1VFVN30(440 億)買超列表方面遙遙 領先。 市場短期觀點 我們認為,下個交易日大盤將繼續上漲,未來 1-2 個交易日中 VN-Index 將很快逼近 1435 點。同時,市場仍處於積極的強烈波 動期,短期現金流仍為積極,表明短期上漲趨勢將更具可持續 性,市場可能只會出現短期的調整階段。亮點在於流動性明顯改 善,銀行股等大型股的回歸,表明短期獲利機會仍然較存在。 我們建議短線投資者在投資組合中繼續持有高比例的股票,並利 用回調的機會增加股票的比例或購買新的股票。同時,我們認為 短線投資者應停止低保證金比例,規避市場意外反轉的風險。 請在 https://ysradar.yuanta.com.vn/查看有關股票的信號。 2021/07/02 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 市場走勢 市場指數 VNI HNI UPCOM 收盤 1,417.08 325.72 90.44 %日 0.61% 0.74% 0.21% %週 2.71% 3.38% 0.85% %月 5.93% 2.28% 1.77% %年 68.00% 191.63% 61.36% 成交值(Bil.VND) 當日 25,563 3,770 1,851 日均量/週 21,730 3,083 1,532 日均量/月 23,883 3,941 1,931 外資進出 買進 1,449.66 18.88 44.79 賣出 1,682.20 28.42 49.25 買賣超 -232.54 -9.54 -4.46 市場漲跌家數 上漲 189 88 139 下跌 147 92 161 持平 62 186 603 P/E 19.10 17.92 24.50 總市值 5,312 415 1,200 (兆盾) 股息殖利率 0.88% 2.25% 4.93% 資料源: Bloomberg – YSVN VNINDEX HNXINDEX

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Page 1: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 1

市場走勢

由於大型股的上漲,各指數當天繼續強勁上漲。VN-Index 分別收

於當日最高水平,上漲 0.61%,報 1417.08 點。HNX-Index 上漲

0.74%,收於 325.72 點;Upcom-Index 保持同步,並略有上漲。3

個市場的交易額達 28 兆 7750 億越南盾,較前一交易日大幅增

長。

市場廣度是積極,189 檔股票上漲,147 檔下跌,反映了市場更

傾於上漲的走勢。大型股繼續強勁向積極的方向波動,VPB

(+4%)、MSN (+2.7%)、HDB (+2.7%)、HPG (+2.5%) 領漲指數。然

而,最引人注目的是證券股,如 SSI (+4.5%)、HCM (+5.7%)、VCI

(+4.2%)、SHS (+6.6%)、BSI (+9.8%) 等均強勁上漲。相反,油氣

板塊表現弱於大盤,PVS、PVD、PVC 和 PVT 在過去 4.5 個交易

日大幅下跌。

外資當天賣超 2570 億越南盾。賣壓集中在 VPB(3380 億)、

CTG(2980 億)、NVL(570 億)。另一方面,VCB(770

億)、MSN(450 億)、E1VFVN30(440 億)買超列表方面遙遙

領先。

市場短期觀點

我們認為,下個交易日大盤將繼續上漲,未來 1-2 個交易日中

VN-Index 將很快逼近 1435 點。同時,市場仍處於積極的強烈波

動期,短期現金流仍為積極,表明短期上漲趨勢將更具可持續

性,市場可能只會出現短期的調整階段。亮點在於流動性明顯改

善,銀行股等大型股的回歸,表明短期獲利機會仍然較存在。

我們建議短線投資者在投資組合中繼續持有高比例的股票,並利

用回調的機會增加股票的比例或購買新的股票。同時,我們認為

短線投資者應停止低保證金比例,規避市場意外反轉的風險。

請在 https://ysradar.yuanta.com.vn/查看有關股票的信號。

3

-z

2021/07/02 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢

市場走勢

市場指數 VNI HNI UPCOM

收盤 1,417.08 325.72 90.44

%日 0.61% 0.74% 0.21%

%週 2.71% 3.38% 0.85%

%月 5.93% 2.28% 1.77%

%年 68.00% 191.63% 61.36%

成交值(Bil.VND)

當日 25,563 3,770 1,851

日均量/週 21,730 3,083 1,532

日均量/月 23,883 3,941 1,931

外資進出 買進 1,449.66 18.88 44.79

賣出 1,682.20 28.42 49.25

買賣超 -232.54 -9.54 -4.46

市場漲跌家數 上漲 189 88 139

下跌 147 92 161

持平 62 186 603

P/E 19.10 17.92 24.50

總市值 5,312 415 1,200

(兆盾)

股息殖利率 0.88% 2.25% 4.93%

資料源: Bloomberg – YSVN

VNINDEX

HNXINDEX

Page 2: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 2

熱點股票技術分析

Page 3: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 3

熱點股票技術分析

Page 4: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 4

技術分析圖

指數技術分析圖 VN-Index

指數技術分析圖 HNX-Index

指數 短期趨勢 中期趨勢 阻力區 1 阻力區 2 支撐區 1 支撐區 2

VN-Index 上漲 上漲 1456 1470 1322 970

HNX-Index 上漲 上漲 330 333 300 180

VN30 上漲 上漲 1522 1550 1445 960

VNMidcaps 上漲 上漲 1,730 1800 1650 963

VNSmallcaps 上漲 上漲 1430 1450 1400 804

Page 5: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 5

胡志明市交易所 (HSX)

河內交易所 (HSX)

UPCOM 市場 (UPCoM)

收盤 漲跌%

收盤 漲跌%

收盤 漲跌%

VNI 1417.08 0.61%

HNI 325.72 0.74% UPCoM 90.44 0.21%

VN30 1545.14 1.06%

HN30 515.59 1.46%

VN Mid 1700.93 1.01%

VNX AllSh 1437.35 0.94%

VN Small 1400.66 0.61%

外資交易 成交值

(Bil.VND) 外資交易

成交值

(Bil.VND) 外資交易

成交值

(Bil.VND)

買進 1449.66

買進 18.88 買進 44.79

賣出 1682.2

賣出 28.42 賣出 49.25

買超/賣超 -232.54

買超/賣超 -9.54 買超/賣超 -4.46

上漲排名/

股碼

漲跌

(VND) 漲跌%

上漲排名/

股碼

漲跌

(VND) 漲跌%

上漲排名/

股碼 漲跌(VND) 漲跌%

HRC 4300 6.94%

BVS 3000 9.97% HHV 1116 6.10%

VPH 400 6.93%

MBS 3100 9.87% SBS 817 5.24%

FIT 1100 6.92%

BSI 2200 9.78% TCW 1571 4.69%

CTS 1600 6.90%

APS 1200 7.89% AAS 625 3.86%

AGR 950 6.88%

HUT 600 7.59% ACV 2133 2.83%

下跌排名/

股碼

漲跌

(VND) 漲跌%

下跌排名/

股碼

漲跌

(VND) 漲跌%

下跌排名/

股碼 漲跌(VND) 漲跌%

VOS -520 -7.00%

TVD -1100 -9.73% CST -1575 -11.33%

PSH -1650 -6.20%

NBC -800 -5.26% BSR -660 -3.11%

BHN -3600 -5.49%

API -700 -3.38% OIL -367 -2.40%

VNE -450 -5.23%

PVC -300 -2.61% SCG -1760 -2.18%

VTO -380 -3.76%

SLS -2200 -1.74% PVP -342 -2.09%

*備註:市值>5,000 億盾;成交值>15 億盾

市值排名/

股碼 Bil.VND

市值排名/

股碼 Bil.VND

市值排名/

股碼 Bil.VND

VCB 431,713

THD 72,485 ACV 163,953

VIC 402,509

SHB 55,263 MCH 80,352

VHM 388,163

VND 19,049 BSR 65,780

HPG 230,356

BAB 18,634 VEA 63,846

CTG 196,223

VCS 17,408 GE2 37,854

交易量排

名/股碼 成交值 30 日均

交易量排

名/股碼 成交值 30 日均

交易量排

名/股碼 成交值 30 日均

HPG 40,857,600 28,767,536

PVS 22,790,320 16,984,826 BSR 29,389,541 22,727,383

FLC 32,162,400 32,468,609

SHB 19,127,784 27,616,834 HHV 9,537,131 836,620

VPB 30,962,800 31,613,855

SHS 10,191,698 9,895,816 OIL 3,691,752 3,778,826

STB 29,657,500 29,096,168

VND 9,761,270 7,517,829 ABB 3,662,654 3,971,486

CTG 29,466,200 17,638,805

KLF 8,996,884 6,960,658 HAF 3,502,300 5,477

資料源: BloomBerg & Yuanta Research

資料源: BloomBerg & Yuanta Research

資料源: BloomBerg & Yuanta Research

Page 6: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 6

各行業板塊的交易走勢

資料源:: FiinPro – YSVN

-2.8%

-1.6%

-1.3%

-1.2%

-1.1%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.8%

-0.8%

-0.7%

-0.6%

-0.6%

-0.6%

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

0.9%

0.9%

1.0%

1.1%

1.6%

1.7%

2.2%

-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

Điện tử & Thiết bị điện

Thiết bị và Phần cứng

Hàng hóa giải trí

Bia và đồ uống

Sản xuất Dầu khí

Viễn thông di động

Thiết bị và Dịch vụ Y tế

Viễn thông cố định

Khai khoáng

Bán lẻ

Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩm

Thiết bị, Dịch vụ và Phân phối Dầu khí

Bảo hiểm phi nhân thọ

Thuốc lá

Du lịch & Giải trí

Truyền thông

Hàng cá nhân

Bất động sản

Hàng công nghiệp

Hàng gia dụng

Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh

Dược phẩm

Quỹ đầu tư

Ô tô và phụ tùng

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Lâm nghiệp và Giấy

Ngân hàng

Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện

Nước & Khí đốt

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Bảo hiểm nhân thọ

Phần mềm & Dịch vụ Máy tính

Công nghiệp nặng

Vận tải

Kim loại 金屬

運輸

重工業

電腦軟件和服務

人壽保險

食品製造

水和煤氣

電力生產和分銷

銀行

林業和造紙

建設和材料

汽車和零件

投資基金

藥品

營業咨詢和服務

家用品

工業品

房地產

個人用品

傳媒

旅遊和娛樂

香煙

非人壽保險

油氣設備,服務和分銷

食品和藥品分銷

零售

礦業

固定電信

醫療設備和服務

移動電信

油氣生產

啤酒和飲料

娛樂貨品

設備和硬件

電子和電設備

Page 7: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 7

外資買進賣統計

證劵

代碼

買超金額

(百萬盾)

證劵

代碼

賣超金額

(百萬盾)

VCB 76,875 VPB 338,195

MSN 45,186 CTG 297,712

E1VFVN30 43,970 NVL 57,405

MBB 40,082 VIC 37,621

GAS 36,941 HCM 22,401

HSX 外資買/賣超的前 5 名

證劵

代碼

買超金額

(百萬盾)

證劵

代碼

賣超金額

(百萬盾)

THD 2,080 VND 11,660

MBS 1,726 BVS 2,921

PVS 1,722 PAN 2,843

VCS 1,702 PCG 1,669

APS 1,354 SD9 359

HNX 外資買/賣超的前 5 名

證劵

代碼

買超金額

(百萬盾)

證劵

代碼

賣超金額

(百萬盾)

ACV 35,129 PGV 35,114

MCH 969 QNS 3,711

SIP 735 VEA 3,178

OIL 223 BSR 1,798

AAS 169 NHT 238

UPCOM 外資買/賣超的前 5 名

源: FiinPro – YSVN

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

18/06 21/06 22/06 23/06 24/06 25/06 28/06 29/06 30/06 01/07

HSX 外資每日買/賣超

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

18/06 21/06 22/06 23/06 24/06 25/06 28/06 29/06 30/06 01/07

HNX 外資每日買/賣超

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

18/06 21/06 22/06 23/06 24/06 25/06 28/06 29/06 30/06 01/07

UPCOM外資每日買/賣超

Page 8: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 8

自營統計

券商自營交易最大前名

越南證券市場投資人類別統計

資料源: FiinPro – YSVN

88%

6%

0%

6%

Cá nhân trong nước

Tổ chức trong nước

Cá nhân nước ngoài

Tổ chức nước ngoài

證劵

代碼

買超金額

(Mil.VND)

證劵

代碼

賣超金額

(Mil.VND)

MBB 42,083 HPG 93,993

FUESSVFL 18,172 E1VFVN30 45,999

DXG 11,897 FUEVFVND 27,645

FPT 8,621 CTG 22,730

TCB 8,480 OCB 10,550

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

18/06 21/06 22/06 23/06 24/06 25/06 28/06 29/06 30/06 01/07

劵商自營交易每日買/賣超

(Bil.VND)

Page 9: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 9

東南亞主要市場數據

源: BloomBerg &

YSVN, 2014

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Diễn biến các thị trường trong khu vực

SET Index (ThaiLand) JCI Index (Indonesia)

PCOMP Index (Philippines) VNINDEX (VietNam)

Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam

P/B 1.7x 1.9x 1.7x 2.8x

P/E 29.9x 30.0x 29.8x 19.3x

ROE % 5.96 6.10 5.95 14.97

ROA % 1.50 1.52 1.34 2.40

Vốn hóa Tỷ

USD 566.81 486.20 177.63 229.64

GTGD Triệu

USD 2.33 0.80 0.08 0.77

LS cổ tức % 2.33 1.94 1.57 1.30

東南亞主要市場走勢比較

0.0x

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

30.0x

35.0x

P/B P/E ROE ROA

SET Index JCI Index PCOMP Index VNINDEX Index

Page 10: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 10

元大證劵(越南)公司

個人客戶分析部

Nguyễn Thế Minh

研究分析經理

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3826

[email protected]

Lý Thị Hiền

研究分析主管

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3908

[email protected]

Quách Đức Khánh

高級分析專員

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3833

[email protected]

Phạm Tấn Phát

高級分析專員

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3880

[email protected]

Nguyễn Trịnh Ngọc Hồng

分析專員

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3832

[email protected]

個人客戶業務部

Nguyễn Thanh Tùng

總公司業務經理

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3609

[email protected]

Nguyễn Việt Quang

河內分行經理

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3404

[email protected]

Bùi Quốc Phong

同奈分行經理

+84 28 3622 6868

[email protected]

Võ Thị Thu Thủy

平陽分行經理

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3505

[email protected]

Chung Kim Hoa

華人客戶部經理

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3828

[email protected]

Nguyễn Mạnh Hoạt

堤岸分行經理

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3847

[email protected]

Đinh Thị Thu Cúc

頭頓分行經理

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3203

[email protected]

Võ Đình Tuấn

峴港分行經理

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3301

[email protected]

Nguyễn Đức Hoàn

河內南部營業中心經理

+84 28 3622 6868 ext 3409

[email protected]

Page 11: 當日市場:指數隨著流動性增加而擴大漲勢 2021/07/02

YUANTA SECURITIES VIETNAM – RETAIL RESEARCH YUTA<GO> / TRANG 11

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the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.

Ratings Definitions BUY: We have a positive outlook on the stock based on our expected absolute or relative return over the investment period. Our thesis is based on our analysis of the company’s outlook, financial performance, catalysts, valuation and risk profile. We recommend investors add to their position.

HOLD-Outperform: In our view, the stock’s fundamentals are relatively more attractive than peers at the current price. Our thesis is based on our analysis of the company’s outlook, financial performance, catalysts, valuation and risk profile. HOLD-Underperform: In our view, the stock’s fundamentals are relatively less attractive than peers at the current price. Our thesis is based on our analysis of

the company’s outlook, financial performance, catalysts, valuation and risk profile. SELL: We have a negative outlook on the stock based on our expected absolute or relative return over the investment period. Our thesis is based on our analysis of the company’s outlook, financial performance, catalysts, valuation and risk profile. We recommend investors reduce their position.

Under Review: We actively follow the company, although our estimates, rating and target price are under review. Restricted: The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or Yuanta policies.

Note: Yuanta research coverage with a Target Price is based on an investment period of 12 months. Greater China Discovery Series coverage does not have a formal 12 month Target Price and the recommendation is based on an investment period specified by the analyst in the report. Global Disclaimer

© 2018 Yuanta. All rights reserved. The information in this report has been compiled from sources we believe to be reliable, but we do not hold ourselves

responsible for its completeness or accuracy. It is not an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

This report provides general information only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or invitation to make an offer to buy or sell securities or other investments. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and is not intended to provide tailored investment advice and does not take into account the individual financial situation and objectives of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek

financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, investments or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. This report is not (and should not be construed as) a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction

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