個股 2354 鴻準 (元大)-110707-c[1]
TRANSCRIPT
- 1. : 2011 7 7 () Nokia Wii/DS/3DS 117 / 34.2%161 2011/07/07 2011 3% NT$120.00 2012 38%NT$161.002012 16% 1)iPhone 5 NT$117.00 8,773.4 2) (ultrabook) 3)Wii U / (NT$) (%) (2354 TT) 2012 27157 22147 17 2012 Nokia 137 12127117 7 2107-3 (DS/3DS/Wii) 97-8 1) 5 8720107 201010 2011120114 -1319%2) Nokia 6 1 (guidance) Nintendo 6 29 3DS NT$133,559 NT$1,043.9 2012 () 1,113.0 iPhone 5 iPhone 4 59.1% 29.1%Apple iPhone 5 ( 2012 ) 2012 5% 11% ( 10.2% iPhone 60%) (2011F)NT$55.79 (2011F)2.2 (Intel ) (NT$) 2012 4% 8%( 3 ) Wii U Nintendo20092010A2011F2012F Wii U 2012 155,059136,723126,711167,620( 4 )7,959 9,4689,716 14,2596,263 7,6108,914 12,277 161 2011 EPS 3%()5.676.86 8.0111.03 2012 EPS 16% (%) (0.4) 20.9 16.8 37.7 ()0.801.00 1.18 1.41 2011 2011 /2012 117 161 ()21.217.5 15.0 10.9(%) 0.70.8 1.01.2 14.814.9 15.3 18.2 (%)+886 2 3518 7913 [email protected] 11 +886 2 3518 [email protected]
2. /iPhone 5 2012 ( 2011 31% 68%) 2012 47% 2012 iPhone 5 () 2012 iPhone 5 22%iPhone 5 ( 2012 ) iPhone 5 / iPhone 4 () iPhone / 2011 7,640 24% 2012 9,490 iPhone iPhone/ 2011 5%/11.5% 2012 10.2%/21.7%2012 Intel (Sean Maloney) (ultrabook) Intel CPU Intel Intel 2012 40%Intel 1,000 ( UX21) 2012 ultrabook Sandy Bridge CPU 40% () UX21 Intel 2012 39% 2012 2.406 50% 40% 2012 4,810 Apple MacBook Air Apple 2012 Apple 2012 Apple 1,000 3800 Apple Apple MacBook ( 30%) ultrabook Apple 2012 Apple 2012 4%/8% UX21 MacBook Air 60% (2474 TT) CNC2012 50% 30% 2012 2012 62 ( 4%) 4% 8% 8% (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 2 12 3. 1(Ultrabook) 2012 2.406 50% 40% 2012 4,810 2012 Apple 3,810 60% 30 Apple 30% 2012 Apple 61.72 ** Apple Apple Apple (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 3 12 4. Wii U 4 29 NintendoWii/DS/3DS 2011 Nintendo 6 19% 2011 19% 2011 3DS ( Legend of Zelda 2012 32% Super Mario ) Nintendo 2012 Wii U ( Wii ) 2012 32% Nintendo 6 Nintendo Nintendo 6 29 3DS 2011 3DS 1,600 2011 7 28 Nintendo 2011 3 158 30% 4 111 5 42% 65 65% Wii/DS/3DS Nintendo 2011 DS3DS Wii 1,100 1,600 1,300 900 1,400 8 2011 DS/3DS/Wi 780 1,220 690 DS/3DS iPhone/iPad Wii Kinect PS Move 2Nintendo ()2011 2011 2009 2010 2011 2012 () (() DS 27.1 17.511 97.8 5.8 3DS 0 3.6116 1412.217.2 Wii20.5 15.113 86.9 4.7Wii U9.2Nintendo 3DS Nintendo 3DS 3DS 2011 Legends of ZeldaSuper MarioMario 2012 KartPokedex3DS 2011 40% 1,720 3DS 2011 1,220 2012 1,720 41% (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 4 12 5. Wii U 2012 Nintendo Wii 2006 11 2006 2007 320 1,690 Wii U 2012 920 3DS 3DSWii Sony PSP iPhone iPad Wii iPhone/iPad iPhone iPad XboxWiiPS3 Wii U Wii U 2012 2012 Wii U - Wii U Wii U Wii U Wii remote remote plus Nunchuck Wii U Wii Wii Wii U 6.2 (Full HD ) Nintendo 2012 (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 5 12 6. 2011 3% 2012 16% (iPhone 5Ultrabook) 2011 3% Nintendo 6 29 3DS 4 29 Nintendo 2011 2011 2 Nintendo 2011 16% 3% 2012 16% Apple iPhone 5 iPhone 4 iPhone 2012 5% 11% Intel Ultrabook Ultrabook 2012 4% 8%( 1) Nintendo 2012 Wii U DS/3DS/Wii Nokia 2012 16% 3 2011 2012 2011 2012 (%) 2010 () 2011 2012 136,723 151,172 126,711173,337 167,620-16%-3% 2011 14,82714,98514,352 17,74419,773-4%11% 3% 9,468 9,9539,71612,13714,259-2%17% 2012 9,61410,92910,632 12,73714,779-3%16% 16% 7,610 9,1588,91410,58312,277-3%16% () 6.868.238.01 9.51 11.03 -3%16% (%) -11.8%10.6% -7.3%14.7% 32.3% 10.8%9.9% 11.3%10.2% 11.8% 6.9%6.6% 7.7%7.0% 8.5% 5.6%6.1% 7.0%6.1% 7.3% (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 6 12 7. 117 161 161 34% 7 7 34% - - 15.4 1.9 0.5 0.5 17.9 2.5 2004 3 1 ( 6 7) 2012-13 33% 2004-10 24%1) (iPhone) (Ultrabook) 2012/2013 ( 2011 31% 2011 68%) 47% 27%2) Wii U 2012 2011 19%2012 32% 2013 23% 2011 2011/2012 2011 2011 2011 2012 170.4 17.9 2011/12 151.4 2.5 2011/12 12 161 (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 7 12 8. 4 () (%) () 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 20102011 2012 2354 TT 1204,629 6.9 8.011.017.5 15.0 10.9 20.916.8 37.7PC 2474 TT 205.0 4,725 6.711.817.130.8 17.4 12.0 33.476.9 45.23211 TT 138.06217.910.212.817.4 13.5 10.81.529.1 24.73376 TT 64.23534.6 3.5 3.513.8 18.4 18.4 (50.9) (24.8)(0.1) 6121 TT 255.5 2,25612.816.521.819.9 15.5 11.7 34.926.2 32.0 2385 TT 54.2 1,211 6.3 5.6 5.2 8.6 9.610.48.3(3.6)(7.4) 2365 TT 16.91681.5 1.5 1.611.3 11.4 10.7 (36.9)(0.5) 6.0 ------ 17.0 15.1 12.11.617.2 19.7Bloomberg 2011 7 7 5 () (%) (%) () 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 20102011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2354 TT 0.81.01.214.915.318.249.0 55.865.3 2.52.2 1.8PC 2474 TT 1.33.33.313.626.132.449.1 47.957.1 4.24.3 3.63211 TT 4.24.95.624.826.927.537.0 48.555.9 3.72.8 2.53376 TT 9.24.24.2 9.8 8.0 7.447.1 46.747.7 1.41.4 1.3 6121 TT 2.12.83.726.727.228.652.5 69.083.3 4.93.7 3.1 2385 TT 7.16.26.225.822.419.424.4 26.027.8 2.22.1 2.0 2365 TT 1.41.81.8 9.6 9.8 9.514.4 15.917.2 1.21.1 1.03.73.43.717.919.420.539.1 44.350.6 2.92.5 2.2Bloomberg 2011 7 7 6 - 12 (X)50 Median= 14.1x; Stdev= 7.6x; Current P/E= 12.7x45403530+2 stdev25+1 stdev2015Median10-1 stdev50Mar-04Mar-05 Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08 Mar-09Mar-10 Mar-11 2011 7 7 (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 8 12 9. 7 - 12 (X) 6 Median= 2x; Stdev= 1x; Current P/B= 2x 5 4 +2 stdev 3 +1 stdev 2 Median 1 -1 stdev 0 Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07 Mar-08Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 2011 7 7 8- ()() 1Q2011F 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 FY2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 FY2012 35,643 24,914 29,31436,840 126,711 30,209 37,525 43,423 56,463 167,620(32,412) (21,671) (25,711)(32,566) (112,359) (26,195) (32,970) (38,352) (50,329) (147,847) 3,2313,2433,604 4,27414,3524,0144,5555,0716,13419,773 (1,216)(1,010)(1,112) (1,298)(4,636) (1,155)(1,274)(1,402)(1,683)(5,514) 2,0152,2332,492 2,9769,716 2,8593,2813,6684,45014,259 526130130 130916 130130130130520 2,5412,3632,622 3,10610,6322,9893,4113,7984,58014,779(264)(709)(341) (404)(1,718) (389)(1,023)(494)(595)(2,501) 2,2771,6542,281 2,7038,914 2,6002,3883,3053,98512,277 ()2.05 1.49 2.052.43 8.012.34 2.15 2.97 3.5811.03 1,1131,1131,113 1,1131,113 1,1131,1131,1131,1131,1139.1% 13.0% 12.3%11.6%11.3%13.3%12.1%11.7% 10.9%11.8%5.7%9.0%8.5% 8.1% 7.7% 9.5% 8.7% 8.4%7.9% 8.5%7.1%9.5%8.9% 8.4% 8.4% 9.9% 9.1% 8.7%8.1% 8.8%10.4% 30.0% 13.0%13.0%16.2%13.0%30.0%13.0% 13.0%16.9%(%) (11.8%) (30.1%)17.7%25.7%(7.3%)(18.0%) 24.2%15.7% 30.0%32.3% (37.7%) 10.8%11.6%19.5%2.6% (4.0%) 14.8%11.8% 21.3%46.8% (16.7%) (27.4%)37.9%18.5%17.1%(3.8%) (8.2%) 38.4% 20.6%37.7% (16.9%) (27.4%)37.9%18.5%16.8%(3.8%) (8.2%) 38.4% 20.6%37.7% ()684 648770839 2,941 664657 716780 2,8172,735 2,5652,6642,61110,575 2,3272,280 2,3692,321 9,296306 306330403 1,345 322337 364444 1,4682,340 2,6402,8713,23611,087 3,1393,700 4,0254,53615,4002,462 2,5372,8593,36211,219 4,6975,296 5,9697,31223,275(iPod nanoiPhone ) 1,957 1,5361,5051,770 6,768 1,4161,451 1,4221,673 5,963iPad / 1,965 2,5002,7122,91510,092 2,4663,277 3,5553,82113,12023,19412,183 15,603 21,70572,68415,178 20,52525,003 35,57696,281 35,64324,914 29,314 36,840 126,71130,209 37,52543,423 56,463 167,620 (%) 1.9%2.6%2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6%1.4% 1.7% 7.7% 10.3%9.1% 7.1% 8.3% 7.7% 6.1% 5.5%4.1% 5.5% 0.9%1.2%1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8%0.8% 0.9% 6.6% 10.6%9.8% 8.8% 8.7%10.4% 9.9% 9.3%8.0% 9.2% 6.9% 10.2%9.8% 9.1% 8.9%15.5%14.1%13.7% 12.9%13.9%(iPod nanoiPhone )5.5%6.2%5.1% 4.8% 5.3% 4.7% 3.9% 3.3%3.0% 3.6%iPad / 5.5% 10.0%9.3% 7.9% 8.0% 8.2% 8.7% 8.2%6.8% 7.8% 65.1% 48.9% 53.2%58.9%57.4%50.2%54.7%57.6% 63.0%57.4% 100%100%100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%100% 100%A (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 9 12 10. 2008 2009 2010A 2011F 2012F20082009 2010A 2011F 2012F (NT$ )(NT$ )14,615 22,56130,92238,07543,898 159,903 155,059136,723 126,711 167,620 10,1124,882 4,304 3,989 5,277 (146,405) (142,239) (121,895) (112,359) (147,847)32,029 28,59325,21223,36630,910 13,32612,820 14,82714,35219,7735045,196 4,551 4,637 4,627 (5,050)(4,861) (5,359) (4,636)(5,514) 57,260 61,23264,99070,06784,712 8,276 7,9599,468 9,71614,2595,439 11,20511,20511,20511,205272138 189 180180 26,428 23,03923,38224,42826,348(989) (533)(326) (100) (100)932778 778 778778 (717) (395)(137)80 80 32,799 35,02235,36536,41038,330 () 29975(20)0 0 90,059 96,254 100,355 106,478 123,043 () (84) 355 302 83644020,807 17,41815,35814,23418,829 0 00 0 0 11,331 16,16816,16816,16816,168 7,775 7,9939,61410,63214,7797,126 13,31212,70212,36913,730 (1,572)(1,731) (2,004) (1,718)(2,501) 39,264 46,89844,22842,77048,727 6,203 6,2637,610 8,91412,277 13,3831,280 1,280 1,280 1,280 299337 337 337337 11,84211,979 13,69014,14918,913 13,6831,617 1,617 1,617 1,617 (NT$)5.695.67 6.868.01 11.03 52,947 48,51545,84444,38750,344 5.695.67 6.868.01 11.03 (NT$)8,4799,720 9,720 9,720 9,720 4,5104,902 4,902 4,902 4,902 21,805 31,77038,60046,39657,364 2,3181,347 1,288 1,072712 37,112 47,74054,51162,09172,699 200820092010A 2011F 2012F (%) 18.4 (3.0) (11.8) (7.3) 32.3 (21.1)(3.8) 19.02.646.8 (8.5)1.2 14.33.433.7 2008 2009 2010A 2011F 2012F (31.4)1.0 21.5 17.137.7(NT$ ) (32.1)(0.4) 20.9 16.837.76,2036,263 7,610 8,91412,277 3,5664,021 4,222 4,433 4,654 (%)3,6266,771 1,933 617(2,864)8.38.3 10.8 11.311.88991,515 850 691 545 5.25.16.97.7 8.514,294 18,56914,61414,65614,612 7.47.7 10.0 11.211.3 (4,810)(1,797) (4,565) (5,478) (6,573)00 0 0 0 3.94.05.67.0 7.3(168)5,271 (908) (907) (906) 6.56.77.78.610.7(4,979) 3,474(5,473) (6,385) (7,480)14.414.8 14.9 15.318.2 00 0 0 0 / (5,496)(7,480)0 0 0 (%)66.636.5 32.0 28.124.0 (4,207) (669) (780)(1,118) (1,310)()(%) (27.2) 10.7 24.7 33.236.4(9,703)(8,149)(780)(1,118) (1,310) () 8.9 16.0 30.5107.3 148.8(388) 13,894 8,361 7,153 5,823 0.70.50.60.7 0.99,315 22,043 9,141 8,271 7,133 () 14.534.8 44.9146.6 146.1 () 1.21.10.90.9 0.9 () 1.51.31.51.6 1.7 () 1.21.21.41.5 1.6 (NT$ )10,098.7 (5,113.5) (13,474.7) (20,627.4 (26,450.7) (NT$)43.77 49.1148.9855.79 65.32 () 21.121.2 17.5 15.010.9 14.0 6.0 14.6 16.118.7 2.72.42.52.2 1.8 11.011.19.79.4 7.1 0.80.91.01.1 0.8 (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 10 12 11. A(1) (2) (2354 TT) - 156 13156 NT$ 12 136 136 11611161496 9 96 8 10 11 276 766 756 3556 436 36 20087 200912009720101 201072011120117 (A) (B) (C) 1: 200891102.48113.1079.12 2: 2008114 64.94 122.4094.18 3: 2009323 69.79 113.0086.95 4: 2009430 70.02 98.00 75.41 5: 2009611 73.10 77.00 59.25 6: 2009731 75.26 73.00 64.04 7: 2009831 73.68 76.00 66.67 8: 20091111101.7578.00 68.42 9: 2010514 113.1692.00 80.70 10:2010629 97.37 95.00 83.33 11:2010826 99.00 81.00 81.00 12:2011429 137.00123.00 123.00 13:2011516 132.50117.00 117.00 14:201177120.00161.00 161.00 BloombergA =B = C = AB C %124 51%7330%2611% 18 7% 1 0% 242 100%/ 12 12 (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 11 12 12. 2011 1934 15a-6 1934 15 ()() 4 () 104 225 10 ()() 189 23 (2354 TT) : 2011-07-07 12 12