Тема 5 Долгосрочная финансовая политика

48
Финансовый менеджмент Преподаватель кафедры Экономики и финансов фирмы Шамраева С.А. Подготовительные курсы в магистратуру

Upload: korralf

Post on 28-Jul-2015

60 views

Category:

Documents


4 download

TRANSCRIPT

..

(capital structure) , , . : ; (re); WACC .

- : / ; ; ; , ; ; .

M&M: (1958) I:

VL = E + D =VU = E II: ,

D reL = reU + RP= reU + (reU rd ) E:D 10 20 30 4035% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 5060 55 50 45 40 0

: 1. CF ; 2. .WACC 10.0% 10 0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Vu 50 50 50 50V(L)

rd 5% 5% 5% 5%

re(U) 10% 10% 10% 10%

re(L) 11.25% 11 25% 13.33% 17.50% 30.00%

We 80% 60% 40% 20%

Wd 20% 40% 60% 80%

VL 50 50 50 50

E 40 30 20 10

10

20

30

40

50

r(D)

WACC

r(e,L)

V(L)

, ,

: ,

, ,

: ,

, ,

M&M: (1963) I:

VL = VU + tD D II:

reL = reU + RP= reU + (reU rd ) (1t) D 10 20 30 4020% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 5060 55 50 45 40 0

D EWACC 9.5% 9.1% 8.7% 8.4% Vu 50 50 50 50V(L)

rd 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%

re(U) 10% 10% 10% 10%

re(L) 10.9% 12.2% 14.2% 17.8%

We 80.9% 63.5% 47.6% 32.9%

Wd 19.1% 36.5% 52.4% 67.1%

VL 52.4 54.8 57.2 59.6

E 42.4 34.8 27.2 19.6

tD

10

20

30

40

50

r(D)*(1-T)

WACC

r(e,L)

V(L)

(1976)

(1 tc )(1 te ) VL = VU + 1 D (1 td )

(1 td ) (1 tc )(1 te ) t= (1 td )

: 6,5%, 13% 20% -> 13%, ?

(1 0.13) (1 0.2)(1 0.065) = 14.02% t= (1 0.13)V L = V u + tD = 700 $ + 0 . 1402 500 $ = 770 . 11 $

M$M , ,

, , , , , ( , ) ( ) ( , , ..)

(trade-off theory) ( y)

VL = VU + tD PV(COFD )COFD costs of financial distress; V

VL = Vu + tD

tD Vu

COFD Vu V real

(agency costs) , . : ; ;

VL = VU + tD PV(COFD PV( AC) )COFD costs of financial distress; AC agency costs V

VL = Vu + tD

tD Vu

COFD+AC Vu V real

(1960) (1960), : (, ) /

D/E CF

. ,

, Myers Majluf Myers-Majluf : NPV>0 NPV>0; . ; , , ; , ; .

WACC

VWACC

VV

D/E

D/E

WACC (OI)

EBIT-EPS

EBIT- EPS (EPS) ()

(EBIT)

() ( ) ( (EBIT - Interestdebt ) (1-T) e es ( )=

(EBIT- Interestequity ) (1-T) ( e es ( ) nequity

ndebtInterestdebt = Interestequity = ndebt = nequity = T=

EBIT- EPS

EPS d = EPS e (1 t )( EBIT I d ) (1 t )( EBIT I e ) Int Int = nd ne

Intd x ne Inte x nd EBIT = ne nd EBIT = Indifference level of EBIT I diff l l f ()

WACC

D E K d (1 t ) + K e = WACC D+E D+E

: 1. 2. 3. 4. 4 5. 6. 7. 8. EBIT , going concern, Kd Ke

: :1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6 7. 8. 9. 10 EBIT EAT (earnings after tax) Kd Ke (D) Kd (E) Ke (D+E) D: N new = D / P : EPS S V P WACC

11. WACC

: I. ()8.

2. (i)7.

3. ( t) 4. Kd=i(1-t)

6. 6

5. 5

(EBIT) (, , ..). ) ; . t : EBITt < DPt DPt, EBITt t; DPt (Debt Payments) , .

1. . 2. . 3.

Tstatistic T i i =

EBITcurren t DP EBIT * EBITcurren t

4. , ( t statistic ) ) 5. 6. 5 (DP t statistic)

DP

C ? D/E D/E ?

D/E D/E

?

D/E -

D/E: -

?

: -

; ; ;

(stakeholders) , .

: . .,. . (.). .: , 2001. 16 .. . - , , 11, 2004., . 18-21 .., ., .. . - , 2004, 4, .19-34 .., . : . , , 2005, 4, . 34 38 34-38

, .

1. ? 2. ? 3. ?

:

Div 1 P = r g , .

& , 1961 . : . .

& , 1963 . , , . ,

, 1979 . , +

, .

() () , , () .

, , .

,

? , , ,

; ;

Announcement day

Ex-dividend day

Payment day

: : (, .., ) : , ,

: : , . : ! : .

. : M&M: - - ,