Габриэль Готье, Ассоциация телекоммуникационных...

COPYRIGHT © 201 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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GABRIELLE GAUTHEY Senior VP, President of Public Affairs, ALCATEL-LUCENT FIRST VICE-PRESIDENT, FRENCH TELECOM INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION


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TELECOMMUNICATION TRENDS A FAST GROWING INDUSTRY


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NEW USAGES BEYOND ORIGINAL DATA SERVICES DRIVING MASSIVE CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGIES…

COMMUNITIES ARE BIG: 1.26bn users / 604m mobile users of Facebook Apps platform

ONLINE VIDEO IS HERE: 20% of primetime TV; 78% of US online adults watch/download videos

WRITE ONCE, RUN ANYWHERE: 2.1bn devices will support HTML5 by 2016

THE WEB GOES MOBILE: 25% of US web users are mobile-only, over 70% in some markets

THE CLOUD IS ON: over cloud apps start dominating apps store

SPECTRUM IS KING: combined use of licensed and unlicensed (Wi-Fi) spectrum

EVERYTHING ALL THE TIME: 8-18 year olds consume 11.5 hours of content in 7 hours (multiapps)

… AND OUR INDUSTRY TO BE MORE FLEXIBLE, AGILE, AND RESPONSIVE


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MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH A WORLDWIDE REALITY

PB

/MO

NTH

32%

43%

25%

28%

49%

23%

2016

2011

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EU APAC NAR

25 X Growth Over 5 Years

PB

/MO

NTH

Video streaming + Communications 66% OF TRAFFIC BY 2016

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

GamingAudio streaming File transfer M2M

Messaging and non-audio/video communicationWeb browsingVideo communication Video streaming2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mobile data forecast 2011 - 2016 Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific

Cumulative traffic distribution 2011 - 2016 Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific

Source: Bell Labs research, 2012

Mobile Internet

70% of mobile traffic by 2014

Smartphones

2.5 billion devices by 2015

Mobile Internet

~ 70% of mobile traffic by 2014

Machine-to-Machine

X3 growth in the next five years

Video

~ 70% of internet traffic by 2014


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MULTI-BAND

NETWORK EVOLUTION INCREASED COMPLEXITY OF RADIO LAYERS TO SUPPORT GROWTH

HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK - MULTIPLE FREQUENCIES, TECHNOLOGIES, AND NEW ARCHITECTURES ARE NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE BUT COMPLEMENTARY

MULTI-LAYERS MULTI-STANDARD

Three heterogeneous aspects of the networks:

FEMTO WiFi

METRO

MACRO

4G/ LTE

3G/ HSPA

2G/GSM


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MOBILE DATA EXPLOSION CHALLENGES THE SUPPLY SIDE REQUIREMENTS

MORE SPECTRUM… • Speed up Digital Dividend spectrum allocation • Regional harmonization of band plans • Common calendar for spectrum release to reduce cross border interferences

ENHANCED SPECTRUM EFFICIENCY via TECHNOLOGY... • LTE migration, 2G/3G spectrum refarming • Contiguous spectrum allocation (wide-bands)

INCREASED SPATIAL EFFICIENCY with SMALL CELLS... • Simplified installation rules for volumes of equipments • Backhauling enablement to avoid transport bottleneck • WiFi offload to complement capacity in dense areas

DATA EXPLOSION

= HIGHER

CAPACITY

x2

x8

x2


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SPECTRUM KEY RESOURCE FOR THE MOBILE BROADBAND Spectrum remains the key limit to any radio access system - Existing bands for GSM and UMTS are eligible for refarming for more efficient technologies - New bands for LTE through repurposing: 2.6GHz, 800MHz, 700MHz, 2.3GHz, 3.6GHz

Key issues - Residual GSM spectrum requirements - Refarming calendar - LTE deployment priorities – coverage vs. capacity: 800MHz, 2.6 GHz, and/or 1800MHz - Small cell options: dedicated vs. shared carriers - Second digital dividend: new debate on broadcast needs vs. mobile broadband capacity - Future usage of the 3.6GHz spectrum: shared spectrum with database access, secondary licensing...

Spectrum sharing becomes a market reality - Voluntary share of spectrum - Secondary use of spectrum for wireless broadband services (LSA/ASA)


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DIVERSE POLITICAL AND POLICY AGENDAS

Spectrum: Public Safety, incentive auction for 600MHz, sharing in 3.5GHz, 700MHz licensing in Canada FirstNet: nation-wide network sharing for PS of the commercial networks 2G, PSTN sunset Net Neutrality

NORTH AMERICA

SOUTH AMERICA

Government initiatives: broadband, backbones, regulatory reform Spectrum & technology:

Digital Dividend licensing, LTE & small cells Local manufacturing Telecom taxation

ASIA PACIFIC EUROPE

AFRICA MIDDLE EAST

Government initiatives: broadband, backbones New business models on

National Wholesale Wireless Networks – PPP, SPV, JV Spectrum: Sub-Saharan

Africa decision to allocate DD1&2 for mobile broadband

Telecom Single Market Proposal, including: Cost methodology recommendation, spectrum coordinated calendar, small cells deployment facilitation, net neutrality Cloud R&D funding, consolidation • National BB plans – state

intervention on infrastructure • Pioneering on service-based

competition model • LTE TDD development • Small cells • R&D and innovation – 5G


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THE INDUSTRY REALITY ERODING REVENUES, INCREASING TRAFFIC, HIGHER COSTS

REVENUES

TRAFFIC

TRAFFIC & REVENUES DECOUPLED

VOICE Dominated DATA Dominated

COSTS


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THE INDUSTRY IMPERATIVE ENHANCE CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE

Personalized services Accelerated time to market New business models

Scale and manage capacity Reduce cost of operations Optimize operational structure Environment sustainability

-

+

REVENUES

VOICE Dominated DATA Dominated

COSTS

TRAFFIC


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MORE INVESTMENT INCENTIVES, MITIGATION OF RISKS: FINANCIAL, LEGAL, REGULATION, MARKET

THE FUTURE OF WIRELESS MUCH MORE, MUCH BETTER AND MUCH FASTER

MORE BANDS, MORE TECHNOLOGIES, MORE CELLS, MORE (FOCUSED) POWER, MORE TOWER FOOTPRINT

MORE BACKHAUL CAPACITY AND FROM CHALLENGING LOCATIONS, MORE BACKBONE FOOTPRINT

MASSIVE SCALING OF PACKET CORE FOR SMALL CELLS AND M2M

SUSTAINABLE (PROFITABLE) GROWTH @ OPTIMIZED CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE

LTE IN COVERAGE & CAPACITY SPECTRUM BANDS, WITH SMALL CELLS AND INFRASTRUCTURE SHARING CAN REDUCE 5-YEAR TCO BY MORE THAN 45%

+ + = +


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HOW TO ACHIEVE THE MORE, BETTER, FASTER…. CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS

Increase revenues from existing/new services

Enable new business models

Reduce total cost of network operations

Accelerate time to market

Optimize the customer experience

Dynamic scale & manage network capacity

Operation sustainability

Economical reach of untapped markets


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Габриэль Готье, Ассоциация телекоммуникационных...

Business

mobile broadband spectrum

shared spectrum

requirementsmore spectrum

mobile traffic

jv america spectrum

secondary use of spectrum

apps store spectrum

unlicensed wifi spectrum