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Frank M. Bass Diffusion Theory in Marketing: A Historical Perspective, , 1999 . http://ecsocman.edu.ru/images/pubs/2004/02/23/0000149510/261,4,History Published in Management Science in1969, A New Product Growth Model For Consumer Durables

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1,0004,00030,00070,000135,000210,000260,000250,000280,000

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34601011041550100100202500412000633000823500975000

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4 20020020010,00020,00026,00050,000100,000200,000

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6 3,66010,31041,750110,100222,500438,000683,000923,5001,175,000

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Jan-6757006200

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Jan-6858505500

Jan-6952004300

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

2000

10000

22000

40000

143000

209800

360000

383800

411700

506600

651200

674300

560600

() ( )

, () ( )

1

19921000

19934000

199430000

199570000

1996135000

1997210000

1998260000

1999250000

2000280000

2001160000

2002110000

200380000

200470000

2. , .09.09.03

01.072002. % 2001. () I

20012002 .2003 .2002 .2003 .

( ) - , :3284006235,370,68937019329104.7814403708706

- 3186424634,391,21835,982,591104.6802447686838

2870177030,512,44631,987,425104.8582792643400

- 3062037033,141,24134,771,571104.9792907702817

2768295529,500,05730,992,138105.1582902658129

- 2482687326,749,11128,140,536105.2604199579598

2349871225,085,35926,373,905105.1513546572277

- 2472282526,649,99428,051,579105.3590581583663

2343301925,016,04526,310,518105.2504996577051

, - 975816979,4711,036,738105.81195621868

919007887,149869,11598.0-1170018574

-209040197,619190,62596.5-4649-4035

197980180,715167,38092.6-4867-9911

93030118,104132,044111.849834500

87602107,919118,365109.748102035

() - 1625510,3107,88376.5-3170-900

1587410,0237,60075.8-3178-874

() - 43193,5992,68374.599-264

39773,3372,43472.978-235

-156226131,570110,88884.3-5459-8403

148878122,089101,51383.1-5557-9027

-5852465,59664,63098.5505-345

5583761,84360,27897.5537-1033

- 3655955,73971,854128.939805268

3322848,60358,267119.93868-10

3018748,90964,731132.343795109

2778842,73955,653130.241953303

- 2363131321,688,52820,021,37792.3-787210-870778

2354548321,420,56719,683,48591.9-787271-873495

2100398919,448,48418,133,40893.2-642547-695222

2094698319,218,66017,832,11692.8-643106-698993

, - - 13549311,526,3032,065,944135.455537426076

13485811,516,8812,065,548136.288889457023

861723907,3361,036,002114.22583995363

861538907,0671,035,788114.22584395363

- , 34276401132460425324594223.633099507331621

140668311289573193184.172262134318

: 32632181098809724859327226.232375987250571

74236196870416077211.354316111342

, 50652567425956056483.123045-81427

52425108965116392106.815623-3774

- , 1,702,2383,202,428188.1525375942605

""1,478,9702,943,900199.1451107922817

1995.1996.1997.1998.1999.2000200120022003

118259.6527.4793.91466

: 88.5223484.8747.21370.6

: 143209.8360383.8411.7506.6651.2674.3560.6

1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003

() ( )2,00010,00022,00040,000143,000209,800360,000383,800411,700506,600651,200674,300560,600

1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

1,0004,00030,00070,000135,000210,000260,000250,000280,000160,000110,00080,00070,000

MBD0019EF35.xls

1

( )

1990-2000 ..

.

199519961997199819992000

1990 % % % % % %

-1990-1990-1990-1990-1990-1990

19951996199719981999

103.0107.9123.9139.0165.8201.0

.........1449.11492.8103.01564.2104.81795.7114.82013.7112.12402.2119.32913.0121.3

36.731.028.622.919.317.4

..................................289.1106.236.789.784.582.792.266.380.255.984.350.390.0

34.330.329.626.323.822.9

..4409.31511.634.31335.488.31305.997.81161.088.91048.390.31007.696.1

.......................................4026.61396.434.71229.188.01197.497.41060.488.6941.488.81007.6107.0

,

------

................................................................................................--0.012101370.0119072898.41192803100.21330162111.51379957103.7

0.00.00.00.00.00.0

...........................................................................................................---4367060.0460488105.4470309102.1550233117.0669739121.7

15.917.415.310.46.37.9

().......................................162.525.915.928.2108.924.988.316.967.910.360.912.9125.2

:15.717.014.910.16.08.0

.......................................161.025.215.727.3108.32487.916.367.99.759.512.9133.0

() - , .

......................................................................---100.80.064.564.048.675.346.094.746.4100.9

...........................................................................................................--0.09.80.08.788.88.395.414.6175.920.3139.0

96.984.2095.673.9101.886.4

( )....490.4475.196.9412.886.9469.0113.6362.677.3499.0137.6423.684.9

:97.184.395.874.154.10.0

489.2474.997.1412.586.9468.7113.6362.477.3264.873.10.0

17.614.912.912.410.810.5

.............31764.45597.917.64743.984.74109.786.63932.895.73441.287.53342.597.1

---()-()-()-

...-1.0-3.2320.06.7209.4251724-644245.8255.91663915.8258.3

---

....-1.0-1.6160.01.275.01.4116.71.4100.01.9135.7

2

3

n(t) : f = dn/dt = (a + n)(1 - n), a = 0,005 1,2 Wi-Fi a = 0,17 ( 0,15 0,20)

2

-0.0049097944-0.0098222968-0.0245755011-0.0492133221-0.0986511486-0.1482686688-0.1980281063-0.2978520946-0.4981432371-0.7488039729-0.9993292997-1.19960213660.09

-0.0048897147-0.0097825269-0.024478966-0.0490296626-0.0983197347-0.1478217946-0.1974943487-0.2972156828-0.4974947172-0.7483032427-0.9989995978-1.19938229640.28

-0.0048651657-0.0097338588-0.0243604917-0.0488031744-0.0979070472-0.1472598528-0.196816496-0.2963912303-0.4966201969-0.7475931647-0.9985079423-1.1990410360.56

-0.0048351532-0.0096743028-0.0242150989-0.0485238957-0.0973932408-0.1465533744-0.1959558834-0.2953235327-0.4954413366-0.7465865056-0.9977749279-1.19851136840.76

-0.0047984616-0.0096014249-0.0240366821-0.0481795606-0.0967536711-0.1456654364-0.1948636156-0.2939414203-0.4938529839-0.7451599772-0.9966823978-1.19768945510.9

-0.0047536051-0.0095122477-0.023817756-0.0477550733-0.0959577606-0.1445498306-0.193477948-0.2921533042-0.4917142756-0.743139632-0.9950547537-1.19641448150.96

-0.0046987679-0.0094031299-0.0235491466-0.0472318662-0.0949676103-0.1431488134-0.1917210521-0.2898415905-0.4888370151-0.7402806417-0.9926315202-1.19443775

-0.0046317308-0.0092696183-0.0232196144-0.0465871166-0.0937363078-0.1413903607-0.1894950533-0.2868557511-0.4849706775-0.736239601-0.9890274022-1.1913755062

-0.0045497817-0.0091062685-0.0228153954-0.0457927961-0.0922058802-0.1391848465-0.186677231-0.2830038548-0.4797834045-0.7305371974-0.9836748577-1.186637639

-0.0044496068-0.0089064251-0.0223196429-0.0448145202-0.0903048331-0.1364210716-0.1831142924-0.2780424284-0.4728385251-0.7225090953-0.97574313-1.1793215837

-0.0043271577-0.0086619548-0.0217117509-0.0436101614-0.0879452233-0.1329615872-0.1786156796-0.2716646743-0.4635666535-0.7112436887-0.9640275801-1.1680584119

-0.0041774889-0.0083629215-0.0209665359-0.0421281905-0.0850192224-0.1286373029-0.1729459727-0.2634873736-0.45123452-0.69550791-0.9468060128-1.1507988899

-0.0039945607-0.0079971914-0.0200532507-0.0403057045-0.0813951518-0.1232414525-0.165816633-0.253037334-0.4349137794-0.6736681034-0.9216685544-1.1245378554

-0.0037709988-0.0075499543-0.0189344016-0.0380661073-0.0769130201-0.1165231284-0.1568776235-0.2397391023-0.413456578-0.6436243218-0.8853516482-1.0850094203

-0.0034978016-0.0070031437-0.0175643374-0.0353164165-0.0713796669-0.1081808209-0.1457099041-0.2229069419-0.38549002-0.6027955374-0.833654607-1.0264665308

-0.003163986-0.0063347379-0.0158875782-0.0319441887-0.0645637511-0.0978567288-0.1318204465-0.2017458173-0.349448653-0.5482198044-0.761594156-0.9418096318

-0.0027561564-0.0055179172-0.0138368539-0.027814092-0.0561910021-0.0851330713-0.1146422801-0.1753681837-0.3036709307-0.4768584015-0.6640367703-0.8235260507

-0.0022579842-0.0045200556-0.0113308299-0.0227642084-0.0459404293-0.069532234-0.0935430871-0.1428352372-0.2465876431-0.3861898762-0.537049567-0.6659569156

-0.0016495786-0.0033015164-0.008271509-0.0166022367-0.0334425367-0.0505232755-0.0678468241-0.1032318065-0.1770191086-0.2751022291-0.3799489623-0.4688802751

-0.0009067297-0.0018142268-0.0045413276-0.0091018951-0.0182810329-0.0275379818-0.0368733128-0.0557814188-0.0945636516-0.1449012787-0.1973753202-0.2409441359

000000000000

0.00110636050.00221141570.0055187660.01100506750.02188111790.03262981810.04325281040.06412811970.10443986680.15225527330.19737532020.2316420054

0.00245570260.00490457850.01221047080.02425250850.0478422250.07079049140.09311781650.13598774880.21509504110.30287620190.37994896230.4348946852

0.00410049660.00818088130.02030259430.04011455350.07832497690.11474268810.14947100340.21423643030.3272943970.44324934620.5370495670.5994250404

0.00610410770.01216133720.03005641860.05898661630.11368230670.16448315750.21173945640.29682792210.43610261890.56698173630.66403677030.7241353323

0.00854284510.0169895450.041767160.08127042930.15411722830.21966654010.27885628820.38118487870.53715768110.67080214460.7615941560.8140323764

0.01150829340.02283469240.05576142270.10734861810.19961706060.27955481230.34928988880.46450190840.62731287140.75437312110.8336546070.8765144127

0.01510990910.02989435330.072390740.13754991160.24989380560.34301545140.42115984740.54410879530.70490361410.81942492590.88535164820.9188493812

0.01947783190.03839670830.09201979660.17210566870.30434507180.40858246790.49242694530.61779776730.76964145210.86875149370.92166855440.947040674

0.02476580570.04860163950.11500795010.21110074950.36205045740.47457958170.56111918770.68403432510.82227205690.90541587840.94680601280.9655974732

0.03115402490.06079995140.14168303290.25442472070.42181381370.53928633020.62554241070.74201851990.86416449780.93226660060.96402758010.9777194979

0.03885161040.07530974060.17230731340.30173227780.4822520550.60111354120.68442982450.79161517430.89695197310.95171720840.975743130.9855986279

0.04809827450.09246874450.20703704780.35242341140.54191868030.65875132370.73700674340.83320318680.92227623770.96569619460.98367485770.9907033291

0.05916455080.11262139760.24587922950.40565286990.59943960780.71126220810.78297339190.86749879240.94163702210.97568576770.98902740220.9940035854

0.07234975460.13609943970.28865161170.46037406380.653634970.7581095370.82242842030.89539371050.95632318750.98279545960.99263152020.99613434

0.08797663650.16319539530.33495411950.51541515820.70360501650.79912870230.85576310920.91782935360.96739737530.98784086410.99505475370.997508816

0.10638153350.19412921940.38416035840.56957679310.74876913130.8344599440.88355274620.93571185230.97571055090.99141398450.99668239780.9983949398

0.12789881950.22900996810.43543610930.62173471380.78885941730.86446419480.90646260740.94986286650.98193009560.9939407580.99777492790.9989660143

0.15283871610.2677963920.48778713990.67092913590.82387974780.88963979910.9251764230.96099729530.98657155850.99572575390.99850794230.9993339641

0.18145820190.31026248520.54013217890.71642655630.85404530660.91055139450.94034805710.9697189040.990028830.99698581560.99899959780.9995710024

0.2139259650.35597554470.59139044760.7577472740.87971683420.92777582930.95257307570.97652653050.99260042690.99787485930.99932929970.9997236907

0.25028408580.40429429420.64056910680.79466011380.90134001090.94186529720.9623753720.9818256110.99451124370.99850190140.99955036650.9998220388

0.29041119930.45439239140.68683600280.82715200380.91939582140.95332522740.97020408350.98594161090.99592996940.99894404080.99969857930.9998853832

0.3339937540.5053080960.72956716910.85538281750.93436382770.9626034670.9764368640.98913335230.99698272520.99925574550.99979794160.9999261812

0.38051286570.55601500310.76836500170.87963547780.94669764670.97008733630.9813865950.99160518830.99776358190.99947546680.99986455170.9999524575

0.42925333270.60550336780.80304950620.90026892650.95681056760.9761056830.98530955680.99351758320.99834258030.9996303350.99990920430.9999693806

0.47933817620.65285867050.83362953640.91767851030.96506882170.98093376640.98841382370.99499600950.99877180150.99973948520.99993913690.9999802799

0.529786970.69732482780.8602627410.93226561020.97179016510.98479945610.9908671760.99613826190.99908993510.99981641030.99995920180.9999872995

0.57959056540.73834355660.88321231460.94441639410.97724583950.98788976780.99280418090.99702037430.99932570130.99987062250.9999726520.9999918204

0.005

0.01

0.025

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.300

0.500

0.750

1.0

1.2

Wi-Fi 0.17

F=(A+N)(1-N)

2.12/4/04

a =0.005a =0.010a =0.025a =0.050a =0.100a =0.150a =0.200a =0.300a =0.500a =0.750a =1.000a =1.200

a + 1 =1.005a + 1 =1.01a + 1 =1.03a + 1 =1.05a + 1 =1.10a + 1 =1.15a + 1 =1.20a + 1 =1.30a + 1 =1.50a + 1 =1.75a + 1 =2.00a + 1 =2.20

1/a =200.002*t0=10.5441/a =100.002*t0=9.1191/a =40.002*t0=7.1981/a =20.002*t0=5.7061/a =10.002*t0=4.1871/a =6.672*t0=3.2991/a =5.002*t0=2.6821/a =3.332*t0=1.8521/a =2.002*t0=0.9241/a =1.332*t0=0.3291/a =1.002*t0=0.0001/a =0.832*t0=-0.166

t0 =5.272dt =0.20t0 =4.560dt =0.20t0 =3.599dt =0.20t0 =2.853dt =0.20t0 =2.093dt =0.20t0 =1.650dt =0.20t0 =1.341dt =0.20t0 =0.926dt =0.20t0 =0.462dt =0.20t0 =0.164dt =0.20t0 =0.000dt =0.20t0 =-0.083dt =0.20

tt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanf

-4.00-9.27211140.221-0.00490.0001-4.00-8.5605682.634-0.00980.0002-4.00-7.5992413.612-0.02460.0004-4.00-6.8531333.727-0.04920.0008-4.00-6.093814.509-0.09870.0015-4.00-5.650663.229-0.14830.0020-4.00-5.341607.552-0.19800.0024-4.00-4.926604.241-0.29790.0028-4.00-4.462806.858-0.49810.0028-4.00-4.1641462.178-0.74880.0021-4.00-4.0002980.958-0.99930.0013-4.00-3.9175528.537-1.19960.0009

-3.80-9.0729111.725-0.00490.0001-3.80-8.3604643.252-0.00980.0002-3.80-7.3991966.242-0.02450.0005-3.80-6.6531081.098-0.04900.0010-3.80-5.893653.659-0.09830.0018-3.80-5.450526.958-0.14780.0025-3.80-5.141477.917-0.19750.0030-3.80-4.726465.901-0.29720.0036-3.80-4.262597.735-0.49750.0038-3.80-3.9641030.379-0.74830.0030-3.80-3.8001998.196-0.99900.0020-3.80-3.7173560.579-1.19940.0014

-3.60-8.8727452.593-0.00490.0001-3.60-8.1603793.977-0.00970.0003-3.60-7.1991601.794-0.02440.0007-3.60-6.453876.321-0.04880.0013-3.60-5.693524.573-0.09790.0023-3.60-5.250418.685-0.14730.0031-3.60-4.941375.943-0.19680.0038-3.60-4.526359.234-0.29640.0047-3.60-4.062442.813-0.49660.0051-3.60-3.764726.096-0.74760.0042-3.60-3.6001339.431-0.99850.0030-3.60-3.5172293.143-1.19900.0021

-3.40-8.6726095.569-0.00480.0002-3.40-7.9603100.040-0.00970.0003-3.40-6.9991304.897-0.02420.0008-3.40-6.253710.332-0.04850.0015-3.40-5.493420.980-0.09740.0029-3.40-5.050332.660-0.14660.0040-3.40-4.741295.727-0.19600.0048-3.40-4.326276.988-0.29530.0061-3.40-3.862328.044-0.49540.0068-3.40-3.564511.671-0.74660.0060-3.40-3.400897.847-0.99780.0044-3.40-3.3171476.867-1.19850.0033

-3.20-8.4724985.642-0.00480.0002-3.20-7.7602533.027-0.00960.0004-3.20-6.7991063.031-0.02400.0010-3.20-6.053575.784-0.04820.0019-3.20-5.293337.844-0.09680.0036-3.20-4.850264.309-0.14570.0050-3.20-4.541232.627-0.19490.0061-3.20-4.126213.572-0.29390.0078-3.20-3.662243.021-0.49390.0092-3.20-3.364360.569-0.74520.0084-3.20-3.200601.845-0.99670.0066-3.20-3.117951.156-1.19770.0051

-3.00-8.2724077.818-0.00480.0002-3.00-7.5602069.723-0.00950.0005-3.00-6.599865.995-0.02380.0012-3.00-5.853466.721-0.04780.0024-3.00-5.093271.126-0.09600.0044-3.00-4.650210.003-0.14450.0062-3.00-4.341182.991-0.19350.0078-3.00-3.926164.675-0.29220.0101-3.00-3.462180.034-0.49170.0124-3.00-3.164254.088-0.74310.0120-3.00-3.000403.429-0.99510.0099-3.00-2.917612.579-1.19640.0079

-2.80-8.0723335.298-0.00470.0003-2.80-7.3601691.160-0.00940.0006-2.80-6.399705.481-0.02350.0015-2.80-5.653378.317-0.04720.0029-2.80-4.893217.584-0.09500.0055-2.80-4.450166.854-0.14310.0078-2.80-4.141143.946-0.19170.0099-2.80-3.726126.973-0.28980.0131-2.80-3.262133.373-0.48880.0166-2.80-2.964179.053-0.74030.0169-2.80-2.800270.426-0.99260.0147-2.80-2.717394.523-1.19440.0122

-2.60-7.8722727.982-0.00460.0004-2.60-7.1601381.839-0.00930.0007-2.60-6.199574.718-0.02320.0018-2.60-5.453306.658-0.04660.0036-2.60-4.693174.615-0.09370.0069-2.60-4.250132.571-0.14140.0098-2.60-3.941113.232-0.18950.0125-2.60-3.52697.903-0.28690.0169-2.60-3.06298.805-0.48500.0223-2.60-2.764126.177-0.73620.0239-2.60-2.600181.272-0.98900.0218-2.60-2.517254.087-1.19140.0189

-2.40-7.6722231.250-0.00450.0005-2.40-6.9601129.093-0.00910.0009-2.40-5.999468.192-0.02280.0022-2.40-5.253248.572-0.04580.0044-2.40-4.493140.132-0.09220.0085-2.40-4.050105.332-0.13920.0123-2.40-3.74189.071-0.18670.0158-2.40-3.32675.488-0.28300.0218-2.40-2.86273.196-0.47980.0299-2.40-2.56488.915-0.73050.0337-2.40-2.400121.510-0.98370.0324-2.40-2.317163.642-1.18660.0292

-2.20-7.4721824.967-0.00440.0006-2.20-6.760922.576-0.00890.0011-2.20-5.799381.412-0.02230.0027-2.20-5.053201.488-0.04480.0054-2.20-4.293112.459-0.09030.0106-2.20-3.85083.690-0.13640.0154-2.20-3.54170.066-0.18310.0200-2.20-3.12658.205-0.27800.0281-2.20-2.66254.225-0.47280.0400-2.20-2.36462.657-0.72250.0474-2.20-2.20081.451-0.97570.0479-2.20-2.117105.391-1.17930.0451

-2.00-7.2721492.663-0.00430.0007-2.00-6.560753.832-0.00870.0013-2.00-5.599310.716-0.02170.0034-2.00-4.853163.323-0.04360.0067-2.00-4.09390.250-0.08790.0131-2.00-3.65066.495-0.13300.0193-2.00-3.34155.116-0.17860.0252-2.00-2.92644.879-0.27170.0360-2.00-2.46240.171-0.46360.0533-2.00-2.16444.154-0.71120.0663-2.00-2.00054.598-0.96400.0707-2.00-1.91767.876-1.16810.0693

-1.80-7.0721220.868-0.00420.0008-1.80-6.360615.953-0.00840.0017-1.80-5.399253.124-0.02100.0041-1.80-4.653132.387-0.04210.0082-1.80-3.89372.427-0.08500.0163-1.80-3.45052.832-0.12860.0241-1.80-3.14143.356-0.17290.0317-1.80-2.72634.604-0.26350.0461-1.80-2.26229.759-0.45120.0708-1.80-1.96431.115-0.69550.0924-1.80-1.80036.598-0.94680.1036-1.80-1.71743.714-1.15080.1058

-1.60-6.872998.563-0.00400.0010-1.60-6.160503.292-0.00800.0020-1.60-5.199206.207-0.02010.0050-1.60-4.453107.311-0.04030.0101-1.60-3.69358.124-0.08140.0201-1.60-3.25041.977-0.12320.0301-1.60-2.94134.105-0.16580.0399-1.60-2.52626.682-0.25300.0588-1.60-2.06222.046-0.43490.0934-1.60-1.76421.926-0.67370.1278-1.60-1.60024.533-0.92170.1505-1.60-1.51728.154-1.12450.1603

-1.40-6.672816.737-0.00380.0012-1.40-5.960411.237-0.00750.0025-1.40-4.999167.986-0.01890.0062-1.40-4.25386.985-0.03810.0124-1.40-3.49346.646-0.07690.0249-1.40-3.05033.352-0.11650.0374-1.40-2.74126.828-0.15690.0499-1.40-2.32620.573-0.23970.0747-1.40-1.86216.332-0.41350.1223-1.40-1.56415.451-0.64360.1748-1.40-1.40016.445-0.88540.2162-1.40-1.31718.132-1.08500.2398

-1.20-6.472668.020-0.00350.0015-1.20-5.760336.020-0.00700.0030-1.20-4.799136.849-0.01760.0076-1.20-4.05370.508-0.03530.0152-1.20-3.29337.434-0.07140.0307-1.20-2.85026.499-0.10820.0463-1.20-2.54121.103-0.14570.0622-1.20-2.12615.863-0.22290.0943-1.20-1.66212.099-0.38550.1587-1.20-1.36410.888-0.60280.2359-1.20-1.20011.023-0.83370.3050-1.20-1.11711.678-1.02650.3517

-1.00-6.272546.381-0.00320.0018-1.00-5.560274.560-0.00630.0037-1.00-4.599111.484-0.01590.0093-1.00-3.85357.153-0.03190.0186-1.00-3.09330.042-0.06460.0377-1.00-2.65021.055-0.09790.0572-1.00-2.34116.601-0.13180.0772-1.00-1.92612.231-0.20170.1181-1.00-1.4628.963-0.34940.2032-1.00-1.1647.673-0.54820.3124-1.00-1.0007.389-0.76160.4200-1.00-0.9177.521-0.94180.5014

-0.80-6.072446.892-0.00280.0023-0.80-5.360224.342-0.00550.0045-0.80-4.39990.820-0.01380.0113-0.80-3.65346.327-0.02780.0228-0.80-2.89324.109-0.05620.0463-0.80-2.45016.729-0.08510.0704-0.80-2.14113.058-0.11460.0951-0.80-1.7269.431-0.17540.1465-0.80-1.2626.640-0.30370.2559-0.80-0.9645.407-0.47690.4034-0.80-0.8004.953-0.66400.5591-0.80-0.7174.844-0.82350.6865

-0.60-5.872365.519-0.00230.0027-0.60-5.160183.308-0.00450.0055-0.60-4.19973.986-0.01130.0138-0.60-3.45337.552-0.02280.0279-0.60-2.69319.348-0.04590.0565-0.60-2.25013.291-0.06950.0861-0.60-1.94110.272-0.09350.1164-0.60-1.5267.272-0.14280.1796-0.60-1.0624.919-0.24660.3159-0.60-0.7643.810-0.38620.5043-0.60-0.6003.320-0.53700.7116-0.60-0.5173.120-0.66600.8897

-0.40-5.672298.962-0.00160.0034-0.40-4.960149.780-0.00330.0067-0.40-3.99960.273-0.00830.0169-0.40-3.25330.439-0.01660.0340-0.40-2.49315.527-0.03340.0688-0.40-2.05010.560-0.05050.1045-0.40-1.7418.080-0.06780.1411-0.40-1.3265.607-0.10320.2171-0.40-0.8623.644-0.17700.3802-0.40-0.5642.685-0.27510.6055-0.40-0.4002.226-0.37990.8556-0.40-0.3172.009-0.46891.0739

-0.20-5.472244.525-0.00090.0041-0.20-4.760122.385-0.00180.0082-0.20-3.79949.101-0.00450.0206-0.20-3.05324.674-0.00910.0413-0.20-2.29312.461-0.01830.0832-0.20-1.8508.391-0.02750.1258-0.20-1.5416.356-0.03690.1691-0.20-1.1264.323-0.05580.2578-0.20-0.6622.700-0.09460.4438-0.20-0.3641.892-0.14490.6928-0.20-0.2001.492-0.19740.9610-0.20-0.1171.294-0.24091.1901

0.00-5.272200.0000.00000.00500.00-4.560100.0000.00000.01000.00-3.59940.0000.00000.02500.00-2.85320.0000.00000.05000.00-2.09310.0000.00000.10000.00-1.6506.6670.00000.15000.00-1.3415.0000.00000.20000.00-0.9263.3330.00000.30000.00-0.4622.0000.00000.50000.00-0.1641.3330.00000.75000.000.0001.0000.00001.00000.000.0830.8330.00001.2000

0.20-5.072163.5820.00110.00610.20-4.36081.7090.00220.01220.20-3.39932.5860.00550.03040.20-2.65316.2120.01100.06030.20-1.8938.0250.02190.11920.20-1.4505.2970.03260.17670.20-1.1413.9330.04330.23270.20-0.7262.5700.06410.34080.20-0.2621.4820.10440.54130.200.0360.9400.15230.76490.200.2000.6700.19740.96100.200.2830.5370.23161.1000

0.40-4.872133.7960.00250.00740.40-4.16066.7640.00490.01480.40-3.19926.5460.01220.03680.40-2.45313.1410.02430.07250.40-1.6936.4400.04780.14080.40-1.2504.2090.07080.20520.40-0.9413.0940.09310.26580.40-0.5261.9820.13600.37670.40-0.0621.0980.21510.56130.400.2360.6620.30290.73400.400.4000.4490.37990.85560.400.4830.3460.43490.9239

0.60-4.672109.4340.00410.00910.60-3.96054.5530.00820.01800.60-2.99921.6260.02030.04440.60-2.25310.6520.04010.08650.60-1.4935.1690.07830.16440.60-1.0503.3440.11470.23440.60-0.7412.4340.14950.29720.60-0.3261.5280.21420.40410.600.1380.8130.32730.55650.600.4360.4670.44320.66430.600.6000.3010.53700.71160.600.6830.2230.59940.7208

0.80-4.47289.5070.00610.01100.80-3.76044.5750.01220.02190.80-2.79917.6170.03010.05340.80-2.0538.6340.05900.10260.80-1.2934.1480.11370.18940.80-0.8502.6570.16450.26280.80-0.5411.9140.21170.32460.80-0.1261.1780.29680.41970.800.3380.6020.43610.52790.800.6360.3290.56700.57030.800.8000.2020.66400.55910.800.8830.1430.72410.5308

1.00-4.27273.2090.00850.01341.00-3.56036.4220.01700.02651.00-2.59914.3520.04180.06401.00-1.8536.9990.08130.12061.00-1.0933.3290.15410.21501.00-0.6502.1110.21970.28851.00-0.3411.5060.27890.34531.000.0740.9080.38120.42151.000.5380.4460.53720.48001.000.8360.2320.67080.46771.001.0000.1350.76160.42001.001.0830.0920.81400.3745

1.20-4.07259.8780.01150.01631.20-3.36029.7600.02280.03211.20-2.39911.6920.05580.07631.20-1.6535.6730.10730.14051.20-0.8932.6710.19960.23981.20-0.4501.6770.27960.30951.20-0.1411.1850.34930.35741.200.2740.7000.46450.40941.200.7380.3310.62730.42011.201.0360.1630.75440.36951.201.2000.0910.83370.30501.201.2830.0590.87650.2564

1.40-3.87248.9750.01510.01981.40-3.16024.3170.02990.03871.40-2.1999.5250.07240.09031.40-1.4534.5990.13750.16181.40-0.6932.1440.24990.26251.40-0.2501.3330.34300.32391.400.0590.9320.42120.35961.400.4740.5400.54410.38481.400.9380.2450.70490.35561.401.2360.1150.81940.28341.401.4000.0610.88540.21621.401.4830.0380.91880.1719

1.60-3.67240.0580.01950.02401.60-2.96019.8690.03840.04651.60-1.9997.7590.09200.10631.60-1.2533.7270.17210.18391.60-0.4931.7200.30430.28131.60-0.0501.0590.40860.33041.600.2590.7330.49240.35151.600.6740.4160.61780.35081.601.1380.1810.76960.29251.601.4360.0810.86880.21251.601.6000.0410.92170.15051.601.6830.0250.94700.1137

1.80-3.47232.7640.02480.02901.80-2.76016.2350.04860.05581.80-1.7996.3210.11500.12391.80-1.0533.0210.21110.20601.80-0.2931.3810.36210.29481.800.1500.8410.47460.32821.800.4590.5770.56110.33401.800.8740.3210.68400.31091.801.3380.1340.82230.23501.801.6360.0570.90540.15661.801.8000.0270.94680.10361.801.8830.0160.96560.0745

2.00-3.27226.7980.03120.03502.00-2.56013.2660.06080.06652.00-1.5995.1490.14170.14312.00-0.8532.4490.25440.22702.00-0.0931.1080.42180.30172.000.3500.6680.53930.31762.000.6590.4540.62550.30912.001.0740.2480.74200.26882.001.5380.1000.86420.18532.001.8360.0400.93230.11392.002.0000.0180.96400.07072.002.0830.0100.97770.0485

2.20-3.07221.9180.03890.04212.20-2.36010.8390.07530.07892.20-1.3994.1950.17230.16332.20-0.6531.9850.30170.24562.200.1070.8890.48230.30152.200.5500.5310.60110.29962.200.8590.3570.68440.27912.201.2740.1910.79160.22752.201.7380.0740.89700.14402.202.0360.0280.95170.08222.202.2000.0120.97570.04792.202.2830.0070.98560.0315

2.40-2.87217.9270.04810.05052.40-2.1608.8570.09250.09302.40-1.1993.4170.20700.18402.40-0.4531.6090.35240.26062.400.3070.7140.54190.29412.400.7500.4220.65880.27602.401.0590.2810.73700.24642.401.4740.1470.83320.18902.401.9380.0550.92230.11052.402.2360.0200.96570.05892.402.4000.0080.98370.03242.402.4830.0040.99070.0204

2.60-2.67214.6630.05920.06042.60-1.9607.2370.11260.10882.60-0.9992.7840.24590.20432.60-0.2531.3040.40570.27082.600.5070.5730.59940.28022.600.9500.3350.71130.24872.601.2590.2210.78300.21332.601.6740.1130.86750.15472.602.1380.0400.94160.08412.602.4360.0140.97570.04202.602.6000.0060.98900.02182.602.6830.0030.99400.0132

2.80-2.47211.9930.07230.07182.80-1.7605.9130.13610.12622.80-0.7992.2680.28870.22312.80-0.0531.0570.46040.27542.800.7070.4600.65360.26102.801.1500.2660.75810.21972.801.4590.1740.82240.18162.801.8740.0880.89540.12502.802.3380.0300.95630.06362.802.6360.0100.98280.02982.802.8000.0040.99260.01472.802.8830.0020.99610.0085

3.00-2.2729.8090.08800.08483.00-1.5604.8320.16320.14493.00-0.5991.8480.33500.23943.000.1470.8570.51540.27403.000.9070.3690.70360.23823.001.3500.2120.79910.19073.001.6590.1370.85580.15233.002.0740.0670.91780.10013.002.5380.0220.96740.04783.002.8360.0070.98780.02113.003.0000.0020.99510.00993.003.0830.0010.99750.0055

3.20-2.0728.0230.10640.09953.20-1.3603.9480.19410.16453.20-0.3991.5050.38420.25203.200.3470.6950.56960.26673.201.1070.2960.74880.21323.201.5500.1680.83450.16303.201.8590.1070.88360.12623.202.2740.0520.93570.07943.202.7380.0160.97570.03583.203.0360.0050.99140.01503.203.2000.0020.99670.00663.203.2830.0010.99840.0035

3.40-1.8726.5620.12790.11593.40-1.1603.2260.22900.18433.40-0.1991.2260.43540.25993.400.5470.5630.62170.25413.401.3070.2380.78890.18773.401.7500.1340.86450.13753.402.0590.0850.90650.10353.402.4740.0400.94990.06273.402.9380.0120.98190.02683.403.2360.0030.99390.01063.403.4000.0010.99780.00443.403.4830.0000.99900.0023

3.60-1.6725.3670.15280.13373.60-0.9602.6360.26780.20343.600.0010.9990.48780.26273.600.7470.4560.67090.23723.601.5070.1910.82390.16273.601.9500.1060.88960.11473.602.2590.0660.92520.08423.602.6740.0310.96100.04923.603.1380.0090.98660.02003.603.4360.0020.99570.00753.603.6000.0010.99850.00303.603.6830.0000.99930.0015

3.80-1.4724.3900.18150.15263.80-0.7602.1540.31030.22093.800.2010.8140.54010.25993.800.9470.3700.71640.21733.801.7070.1530.85400.13923.802.1500.0840.91060.09493.802.4590.0520.94030.06803.802.8740.0240.96970.03843.803.3380.0070.99000.01493.803.6360.0020.99700.00533.803.8000.0010.99900.00203.803.8830.0000.99960.0009

4.00-1.2723.5910.21390.17214.00-0.5601.7600.35600.23574.000.4010.6630.59140.25194.001.1470.3000.75770.19574.001.9070.1230.87970.11784.002.3500.0670.92780.07784.002.6590.0410.95260.05474.003.0740.0180.97650.03004.003.5380.0050.99260.01104.003.8360.0010.99790.00374.004.0000.0000.99930.00134.004.0830.0000.99970.0006

4.20-1.0722.9370.25030.19144.20-0.3601.4380.40430.24684.200.6010.5400.64060.23924.201.3470.2430.79470.17344.202.1070.0990.90130.09884.202.5500.0530.94190.06354.202.8590.0320.96240.04374.203.2740.0140.98180.02334.203.7380.0040.99450.00824.204.0360.0010.99850.00264.204.2000.0000.99960.00094.204.2830.0000.99980.0004

4.40-0.8722.4020.29040.20964.40-0.1601.1750.45440.25344.400.8010.4400.68680.22294.401.5470.1970.82720.15164.402.3070.0790.91940.08224.402.7500.0420.95330.05154.403.0590.0250.97020.03494.403.4740.0110.98590.01814.403.9380.0030.99590.00614.404.2360.0010.99890.00184.404.4000.0000.99970.00064.404.4830.0000.99990.0003

4.60-0.6721.9650.33400.22584.600.0400.9600.50530.25494.601.0010.3580.72960.20414.601.7470.1600.85540.13094.602.5070.0630.93440.06794.602.9500.0340.96260.04164.603.2590.0200.97640.02774.603.6740.0080.98910.01404.604.1380.0020.99700.00454.604.4360.0000.99930.00134.604.6000.0000.99980.00044.604.6830.0000.99990.0002

4.80-0.4721.6070.38050.23884.800.2400.7840.55600.25134.801.2010.2920.76840.18384.801.9470.1290.87960.11194.802.7070.0510.94670.05584.803.1500.0270.97010.03354.803.4590.0160.98140.02204.803.8740.0060.99160.01084.804.3380.0010.99780.00334.804.6360.0000.99950.00094.804.8000.0000.99990.00034.804.8830.0001.00000.0001

5.00-0.2721.3140.42930.24785.000.4400.6410.60550.24285.001.4010.2380.80300.16315.002.1470.1050.90030.09485.002.9070.0410.95680.04565.003.3500.0210.97610.02695.003.6590.0120.98530.01745.004.0740.0050.99350.00845.004.5380.0010.99830.00255.004.8360.0000.99960.00065.005.0000.0000.99990.00025.005.0830.0001.00000.0001

5.20-0.0721.0750.47930.25225.200.6400.5240.65290.23015.201.6010.1940.83360.14295.202.3470.0850.91770.07975.203.1070.0330.96510.03725.203.5500.0170.98090.02165.203.8590.0100.98840.01385.204.2740.0040.99500.00655.204.7380.0010.99880.00185.205.0360.0000.99970.00055.205.2000.0000.99990.00015.205.2830.0001.00000.0000

5.400.1280.8790.52980.25155.400.8400.4280.69730.21415.401.8010.1580.86030.12375.402.5470.0690.93230.06655.403.3070.0260.97180.03025.403.7500.0130.98480.01725.404.0590.0080.99090.01095.404.4740.0030.99610.00505.404.9380.0010.99910.00145.405.2360.0000.99980.00035.405.4000.0001.00000.00015.405.4830.0001.00000.0000

5.600.3280.7190.57960.24585.601.0400.3500.73830.19585.602.0010.1290.88320.10615.602.7470.0560.94440.05535.603.5070.0210.97720.02455.603.9500.0110.98790.01385.604.2590.0060.99280.00865.604.6740.0020.99700.00395.605.1380.0000.99930.00105.605.4360.0000.99990.00025.605.6000.0001.00000.00015.605.6830.0001.00000.0000

&P

F=(A+N)(1-N)

0.09

0.28

0.56

0.76

0.9

0.96

0.005

0.01

0.025

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.300

0.500

0.750

1.0

1.2

Wi-Fi 0.17

(A+N)(1-N2)

0.005

a =0.010N =50a =0.020N =50a =0.040N =50a =0.060N =50a =0.080N =50a =0.100N =50a =0.130N =50a =0.160N =50a =0.200N =50a =0.250N =50a =0.300N =50a =0.400N =50atmn(tm)

C(a) =0.50011/a =100.002/7/04C(a) =0.50021/a =50.00C(a) =0.50081/a =25.00C(a) =0.50181/a =16.67C(a) =0.50321/a =12.50C(a) =0.50511/a =10.00C(a) =0.50861/a =7.69C(a) =0.51311/a =6.25C(a) =0.52081/a =5.00C(a) =0.53331/a =4.00C(a) =0.54951/a =3.33C(a) =0.59521/a =2.500.0104.2610.574

4.261-0.3450.50870.5740n(tm)3.571-0.3420.51750.5707n(tm)2.886-0.3380.53550.5642n(tm)2.489-0.3340.55380.5577n(tm)2.211-0.3310.57260.5513n(tm)1.999-0.3270.59170.5450n(tm)1.754-0.3210.62130.5356n(tm)1.565-0.3160.65200.5265n(tm)1.368-0.3080.69440.5145n(tm)1.179-0.3000.75000.5000n(tm)1.031-0.2920.80870.4859n(tm)0.815-0.2760.93550.4592n(tm)0.0203.5710.571

tm4.606dn =0.0202tm3.914dn =0.0204tm3.224dn =0.0208tm2.824dn =0.0212tm2.542dn =0.0216tm2.326dn =0.0220tm2.075dn =0.0226tm1.881dn =0.0232tm1.676dn =0.0240tm1.479dn =0.0250tm1.323dn =0.0260tm1.091dn =0.02800.0402.8860.564

tt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanftt - t0etanf0.0602.4890.558

0.703-3.9030.00040.01020.02020.020-3.8940.00040.00040.0204-0.654-3.8780.0004-0.01920.0208-1.041-3.8650.0005-0.03880.0212-1.311-3.8530.0005-0.05840.0215-1.518-3.8440.0005-0.07800.0219-1.760-3.8350.0005-0.10740.0223-1.949-3.8300.0005-0.13680.0228-2.155-3.8320.0006-0.17600.0233-2.367-3.8460.0007-0.22500.0237-2.552-3.8750.0007-0.27400.0240-2.891-3.9820.0009-0.37200.02410.0802.2110.551

1.397-3.2090.00160.03040.04040.713-3.2010.00170.02080.04080.039-3.1850.00170.00160.0416-0.347-3.1710.0018-0.01760.0424-0.617-3.1590.0019-0.03680.0431-0.822-3.1480.0019-0.05600.0439-1.060-3.1350.0021-0.08480.0449-1.245-3.1260.0022-0.11360.0458-1.442-3.1190.0024-0.15200.0469-1.641-3.1200.0026-0.20000.0480-1.807-3.1310.0029-0.24800.0488-2.095-3.1860.0036-0.34400.04940.1001.9990.545

1.803-2.8030.00370.05060.06041.119-2.7950.00380.04120.06110.445-2.7790.00390.02240.06240.058-2.7650.00400.00360.0636-0.211-2.7530.0042-0.01520.0648-0.416-2.7420.0044-0.03400.0659-0.652-2.7270.0046-0.06220.0675-0.835-2.7160.0049-0.09040.0690-1.029-2.7050.0053-0.12800.0708-1.220-2.6990.0058-0.17500.0727-1.378-2.7010.0064-0.22200.0742-1.639-2.7300.0078-0.31600.07560.1301.7540.536

2.091-2.5140.00660.07080.08041.407-2.5060.00670.06160.08130.733-2.4910.00690.04320.08300.346-2.4780.00720.02480.08470.077-2.4650.00750.00640.0864-0.128-2.4540.0077-0.01200.0880-0.363-2.4390.0082-0.03960.0903-0.546-2.4260.0087-0.06720.0924-0.737-2.4140.0093-0.10400.0950-0.925-2.4040.0102-0.15000.0978-1.077-2.4000.0112-0.19600.1000-1.323-2.4140.0137-0.28800.10270.1601.5650.526

2.316-2.2900.01030.09100.10021.632-2.2820.01050.08200.10130.957-2.2680.01090.06400.10360.569-2.2540.01130.04600.10580.300-2.2420.01170.02800.10790.095-2.2310.01210.01000.1100-0.140-2.2150.0128-0.01700.1130-0.322-2.2030.0135-0.04400.1158-0.512-2.1890.0145-0.08000.1192-0.697-2.1760.0159-0.12500.1230-0.846-2.1690.0174-0.17000.1262-1.081-2.1720.0210-0.26000.13050.2001.3680.515

2.500-2.1050.01490.11120.11971.816-2.0980.01510.10240.12111.140-2.0840.01570.08480.12390.752-2.0710.01630.06720.12660.483-2.0590.01680.04960.12930.278-2.0480.01740.03200.13190.042-2.0330.01840.00560.1356-0.139-2.0200.0194-0.02080.1391-0.329-2.0050.0208-0.05600.1435-0.513-1.9910.0227-0.10000.1485-0.659-1.9820.0249-0.14400.1528-0.887-1.9780.0298-0.23200.15900.2501.1790.500

2.657-1.9490.02030.13140.13901.972-1.9420.02070.12280.14061.295-1.9290.02140.10560.14400.907-1.9160.02220.08840.14720.637-1.9050.02300.07120.15040.432-1.8940.02380.05400.15360.196-1.8790.02500.02820.15810.015-1.8660.02640.00240.1624-0.174-1.8510.0283-0.03200.1678-0.357-1.8360.0308-0.07500.1740-0.502-1.8250.0336-0.11800.1795-0.725-1.8160.0401-0.20400.18780.3001.0310.486

2.793-1.8130.02670.15160.15792.108-1.8060.02720.14320.15991.431-1.7930.02810.12640.16371.042-1.7810.02910.10960.16760.772-1.7700.03010.09280.17130.566-1.7600.03120.07600.17500.330-1.7450.03280.05080.18030.148-1.7320.03450.02560.1855-0.041-1.7170.0369-0.00800.1920-0.223-1.7020.0401-0.05000.1995-0.367-1.6900.0436-0.09200.2062-0.587-1.6780.0518-0.17600.21710.4000.8150.459

2.914-1.6920.03410.17180.17642.228-1.6850.03460.16360.17871.551-1.6730.03580.14720.18311.162-1.6620.03700.13080.18750.891-1.6510.03830.11440.19190.685-1.6410.03960.09800.19610.448-1.6270.04160.07340.20230.266-1.6140.04370.04880.20830.077-1.6000.04670.01600.2159-0.105-1.5840.0507-0.02500.2249-0.249-1.5720.0550-0.06600.2330-0.466-1.5570.0649-0.14800.2465

3.023-1.5830.04240.19200.19462.337-1.5770.04310.18400.19711.659-1.5650.04450.16800.20211.269-1.5540.04600.15200.20710.998-1.5440.04750.13600.21200.792-1.5340.04910.12000.21680.554-1.5210.05160.09600.22390.372-1.5090.05410.07200.23080.182-1.4940.05770.04000.23960.000-1.4790.0625-0.00000.2500-0.143-1.4660.0677-0.04000.2596-0.359-1.4490.0795-0.12000.2760

3.122-1.4830.05170.21220.21222.436-1.4780.05260.20440.21501.757-1.4670.05430.18880.22061.367-1.4560.05610.17320.22621.095-1.4470.05790.15760.23170.889-1.4370.05980.14200.23710.651-1.4240.06270.11860.24510.468-1.4130.06570.09520.25290.278-1.3990.07000.06400.26290.095-1.3830.07570.02500.2748-0.048-1.3710.0818-0.01400.2859-0.262-1.3530.0957-0.09200.3054

3.214-1.3920.06210.23240.22932.527-1.3870.06310.22480.23241.848-1.3760.06520.20960.23861.457-1.3660.06730.19440.24481.185-1.3570.06940.17920.25090.978-1.3480.07160.16400.25690.739-1.3360.07500.14120.26580.556-1.3250.07860.11840.27450.366-1.3110.08360.08800.28580.182-1.2960.09020.05000.29930.039-1.2840.09740.01200.3120-0.175-1.2650.1134-0.06400.3346

3.299-1.3070.07370.25260.24582.612-1.3020.07480.24520.24931.932-1.2920.07720.23040.25601.541-1.2830.07970.21560.26281.268-1.2740.08220.20080.26951.060-1.2660.08470.18600.27610.821-1.2540.08870.16380.28590.638-1.2430.09280.14160.29560.446-1.2300.09860.11200.30810.263-1.2160.10620.07500.32320.119-1.2040.11440.03800.3375-0.094-1.1850.1327-0.03600.3635

3.378-1.2270.08640.27280.26182.691-1.2230.08780.26560.26552.011-1.2130.09050.25120.27281.619-1.2050.09330.23680.28021.346-1.1960.09620.22240.28741.137-1.1890.09920.20800.29470.898-1.1770.10370.18640.30540.713-1.1670.10840.16480.31600.522-1.1550.11500.13600.32980.338-1.1410.12370.10000.34650.194-1.1290.13300.06400.3625-0.020-1.1110.1537-0.00800.3920

3.453-1.1520.10040.29300.27702.766-1.1480.10200.28600.28102.085-1.1390.10510.27200.28891.692-1.1310.10830.25800.29681.419-1.1230.11160.24400.30471.210-1.1160.11500.23000.31250.970-1.1060.12020.20900.32420.785-1.0960.12550.18800.33570.592-1.0840.13300.16000.35080.407-1.0710.14290.12500.36910.263-1.0600.15330.09000.38680.049-1.0420.17650.02000.4198

3.524-1.0810.11580.31320.29152.836-1.0770.11760.30640.29582.155-1.0690.12110.29280.30431.762-1.0620.12480.27920.31281.488-1.0540.12850.26560.32121.278-1.0480.13230.25200.32961.037-1.0380.13820.23160.34220.852-1.0290.14420.21120.35460.659-1.0180.15260.18400.37100.473-1.0060.16370.15000.39100.328-0.9950.17540.11600.41040.113-0.9770.20120.04800.4470

3.592-1.0140.13270.33340.30522.904-1.0100.13470.32680.30982.222-1.0020.13870.31360.31881.828-0.9950.14280.30040.32791.553-0.9890.14700.28720.33691.343-0.9820.15120.27400.34591.102-0.9730.15780.25420.35940.916-0.9650.16460.23440.37270.722-0.9550.17400.20800.39030.535-0.9430.18630.17500.41200.390-0.9330.19940.14200.43310.174-0.9170.22790.07600.4733

3.657-0.9490.15110.35360.31812.968-0.9450.15330.34720.32292.285-0.9390.15780.33440.33251.891-0.9320.16240.32160.34211.616-0.9260.16710.30880.35171.406-0.9200.17190.29600.36131.163-0.9120.17920.27680.37560.977-0.9040.18680.25760.38990.782-0.8950.19720.23200.40870.595-0.8840.21090.20000.43200.448-0.8750.22540.16800.45480.232-0.8590.25680.10400.4985

3.719-0.8860.17120.37380.33023.030-0.8830.17370.36760.33522.347-0.8770.17870.35520.34531.952-0.8710.18390.34280.35551.676-0.8660.18910.33040.36561.465-0.8610.19440.31800.37571.222-0.8530.20250.29940.39091.035-0.8460.21090.28080.40600.839-0.8370.22250.25600.42610.651-0.8270.23770.22500.45100.504-0.8190.25360.19400.47540.287-0.8040.28800.13200.5227

3.779-0.8260.19320.39400.34133.090-0.8230.19600.38800.34662.406-0.8180.20160.37600.35722.011-0.8130.20720.36400.36781.734-0.8080.21300.35200.37851.523-0.8030.21890.34000.38911.279-0.7960.22790.32200.40511.091-0.7900.23720.30400.42110.895-0.7820.25000.28000.44240.706-0.7730.26670.25000.46880.558-0.7650.28420.22000.49480.339-0.7520.32180.16000.5457

3.838-0.7680.21720.41420.35143.148-0.7650.22030.40840.35692.463-0.7610.22640.39680.36802.068-0.7560.23270.38520.37911.790-0.7520.23910.37360.39031.578-0.7470.24560.36200.40151.334-0.7410.25560.34460.41821.145-0.7360.26580.32720.43500.948-0.7290.27990.30400.45740.758-0.7210.29820.27500.48530.610-0.7130.31730.24600.51300.389-0.7010.35840.18800.5672

3.894-0.7110.24340.43440.36053.205-0.7090.24680.42880.36632.519-0.7050.25360.41760.37782.123-0.7010.26060.40640.38941.845-0.6970.26760.39520.40101.633-0.6930.27480.38400.41261.387-0.6880.28570.36720.43021.198-0.6830.29700.35040.44771.000-0.6770.31240.32800.47120.809-0.6700.33240.30000.50050.659-0.6640.35330.27200.52970.438-0.6530.39800.21600.5873

3.950-0.6560.27210.45460.36863.260-0.6540.27580.44920.37452.574-0.6500.28330.43840.38652.177-0.6470.29100.42760.39841.898-0.6440.29870.41680.41051.685-0.6410.30660.40600.42261.439-0.6360.31860.38980.44081.249-0.6320.33090.37360.45911.050-0.6270.34780.35200.48360.858-0.6210.36970.32500.51430.708-0.6150.39250.29800.54490.485-0.6060.44100.24400.6057

4.004-0.6020.30340.47480.37553.314-0.6000.30750.46960.38162.627-0.5970.31580.45920.39392.229-0.5940.32420.44880.40631.950-0.5920.33270.43840.41881.737-0.5890.34130.42800.43131.490-0.5850.35450.41240.45021.299-0.5820.36800.39680.46911.099-0.5780.38640.37600.49460.906-0.5730.41030.35000.52650.755-0.5680.43500.32400.55850.530-0.5600.48770.27200.6223

4.057-0.5480.33780.49500.38133.367-0.5470.34230.49000.38752.679-0.5450.35140.48000.40022.281-0.5430.36050.47000.41292.001-0.5410.36990.46000.42571.787-0.5390.37930.45000.43861.540-0.5360.39370.43500.45811.348-0.5330.40850.42000.47771.147-0.5300.42860.40000.50400.953-0.5260.45450.37500.53710.801-0.5220.48150.35000.57040.575-0.5160.53850.30000.6370

4.110-0.4950.37550.51520.38583.419-0.4950.38040.51040.39222.731-0.4930.39040.50080.40522.332-0.4920.40040.49120.41822.052-0.4900.41060.48160.43131.837-0.4890.42100.47200.44461.589-0.4870.43670.45760.46461.396-0.4850.45280.44320.48471.194-0.4820.47470.42400.51180.999-0.4790.50300.40000.54600.846-0.4770.53220.37600.58040.618-0.4720.59390.32800.6497

4.162-0.4430.41700.53540.38913.471-0.4430.42240.53080.39562.782-0.4420.43330.52160.40882.382-0.4410.44430.51240.42212.102-0.4400.45540.50320.43551.886-0.4400.46670.49400.44901.637-0.4380.48390.48020.46951.444-0.4370.50150.46640.49011.241-0.4360.52530.44800.51791.045-0.4340.55610.42500.55310.891-0.4320.58780.40200.58860.661-0.4300.65450.35600.6602

4.214-0.3920.46280.55560.39103.522-0.3910.46870.55120.39772.833-0.3910.48060.54240.41112.432-0.3910.49260.53360.42462.151-0.3910.50480.52480.43821.935-0.3910.51720.51600.45201.685-0.3900.53590.50280.47281.491-0.3900.55500.48960.49391.287-0.3900.58100.47200.52231.090-0.3890.61440.45000.55830.935-0.3880.64880.42800.59460.703-0.3870.72100.38400.6684

4.266-0.3400.51340.57580.39163.573-0.3400.51980.57160.39832.883-0.3410.53290.56320.41192.482-0.3410.54610.55480.42562.200-0.3420.55940.54640.43941.984-0.3420.57290.53800.45331.733-0.3430.59330.52540.47451.538-0.3430.61420.51280.49591.333-0.3440.64250.49600.52481.134-0.3440.67880.47500.56140.978-0.3450.71610.45400.59860.745-0.3460.79410.41200.6742

4.317-0.2880.56950.59600.39073.625-0.2890.57660.59200.39752.934-0.2900.59090.58400.41122.532-0.2910.60530.57600.42502.249-0.2930.61990.56800.43892.032-0.2940.63460.56000.45301.780-0.2950.65700.54800.47441.584-0.2960.67970.53600.49601.378-0.2980.71050.52000.52531.179-0.3000.75000.50000.56251.021-0.3020.79050.48000.60030.786-0.3040.87500.44000.6774

4.369-0.2370.63220.61620.38843.676-0.2380.63990.61240.39522.984-0.2400.65560.60480.40892.582-0.2410.67130.59720.42282.299-0.2430.68730.58960.43682.081-0.2450.70340.58200.45101.828-0.2470.72780.57060.47251.631-0.2500.75260.55920.49431.424-0.2520.78620.54400.52381.223-0.2550.82920.52500.56141.065-0.2580.87320.50600.59960.828-0.2630.96470.46800.6779

4.421-0.1840.70220.63640.38463.728-0.1860.71080.63280.39143.036-0.1880.72790.62560.40512.632-0.1910.74520.61840.41902.348-0.1940.76270.61120.43302.130-0.1960.78030.60400.44721.876-0.1990.80700.59320.46871.678-0.2020.83410.58240.49061.470-0.2060.87070.56800.52021.268-0.2110.91760.55000.55801.108-0.2150.96550.53200.59650.869-0.2221.06480.49600.6756

4.474-0.1310.78110.65660.37923.780-0.1330.79050.65320.38603.087-0.1370.80930.64640.39962.683-0.1400.82830.63960.41342.399-0.1430.84740.63280.42742.179-0.1460.86670.62600.44151.924-0.1510.89600.61580.46301.726-0.1550.92560.60560.48481.517-0.1600.96570.59200.51441.313-0.1661.01680.57500.55221.152-0.1711.06900.55800.59080.911-0.1801.17690.52400.6703

4.528-0.0780.87040.67680.37223.834-0.0800.88070.67360.37893.140-0.0840.90140.66720.39242.735-0.0880.92230.66080.40612.450-0.0920.94330.65440.41992.230-0.0960.96450.64800.43391.974-0.1020.99660.63840.45521.774-0.1071.02910.62880.47691.564-0.1131.07300.61600.50641.359-0.1201.12890.60000.54401.196-0.1271.18590.58400.58250.953-0.1381.30350.55200.6619

4.583-0.0230.97210.69700.36353.888-0.0250.98350.69400.37013.193-0.0311.00630.68800.38342.788-0.0361.02930.68200.39692.502-0.0401.05250.67600.41052.281-0.0451.07580.67000.42432.024-0.0511.11120.66100.44541.823-0.0581.14690.65200.46681.611-0.0651.19510.64000.49591.405-0.0741.25640.62500.53321.241-0.0821.31880.61000.57140.995-0.0951.44730.58000.6503

4.6390.0341.08890.71720.35313.9440.0301.10150.71440.35963.2480.0241.12680.70880.37262.8420.0191.15230.70320.38582.5550.0131.17790.69760.39922.3330.0081.20360.69200.41272.075-0.0001.24260.68360.43341.874-0.0071.28200.67520.45441.660-0.0161.33520.66400.48311.452-0.0261.40260.65000.51981.287-0.0361.47120.63600.55741.039-0.0521.61190.60800.6354

4.6970.0921.22440.73740.34104.0020.0881.23830.73480.34733.3050.0811.26640.72960.35992.8980.0741.29470.72440.37282.6100.0681.32310.71920.38582.3880.0621.35170.71400.39902.1280.0531.39490.70620.41921.9250.0451.43850.69840.43971.7110.0341.49730.68800.46771.5010.0231.57180.67500.50351.3350.0121.64740.66200.54041.084-0.0071.80230.63600.6169

4.7580.1521.38300.75760.32704.0620.1481.39860.75520.33313.3640.1401.42990.75040.34532.9560.1321.46140.74560.35782.6670.1251.49310.74080.37042.4440.1181.52500.73600.38312.1830.1081.57310.72880.40261.9790.0981.62160.72160.42251.7630.0871.68690.71200.44971.5520.0731.76960.70000.48451.3840.0611.85350.68800.52031.1300.0392.02480.66400.5949

4.8210.2161.57110.77780.31124.1240.2111.58860.77560.31703.4260.2021.62380.77120.32873.0170.1931.65910.76680.34072.7270.1851.69470.76240.35282.5030.1771.73040.75800.36502.2410.1651.78430.75140.38382.0350.1551.83860.74480.40291.8180.1411.91160.73600.42901.6050.1262.00400.72500.46251.4350.1122.09750.71400.49711.1780.0872.28820.69200.5691

4.8880.2821.79760.79800.29354.1910.2771.81740.79600.29903.4910.2671.85710.79200.31013.0810.2571.89710.78800.32142.7900.2481.93720.78400.33292.5650.2391.97750.78000.34462.3010.2262.03830.77400.36242.0950.2142.09950.76800.38061.8750.1992.18180.76000.40551.6600.1812.28570.75000.43751.4890.1662.39080.74000.47051.2280.1382.60470.72000.5394

4.9590.3542.07510.81820.27384.2610.3482.09770.81640.27893.5600.3362.14310.81280.28943.1490.3252.18860.80920.30002.8570.3152.23440.80560.31092.6310.3052.28030.80200.32182.3660.2902.34950.79660.33862.1580.2772.41920.79120.35581.9360.2602.51270.78400.37921.7190.2402.63070.77500.40941.5460.2232.74980.76600.44051.2820.1912.99190.74800.5057

5.0360.4302.42280.83840.25204.3370.4242.44890.83680.25683.6350.4112.50130.83360.26653.2220.3992.55390.83040.27642.9290.3872.60660.82720.28642.7020.3762.65950.82400.29662.4350.3602.73930.81920.31222.2250.3452.81940.81440.32812.0020.3262.92700.80800.34991.7830.3043.06250.80000.37801.6070.2843.19920.79200.40701.3400.2493.47640.77600.4678

5.1200.5142.87080.85860.22834.4210.5072.90140.85720.23263.7170.4932.96280.85440.24153.3030.4793.02430.85160.25053.0080.4663.08600.84880.25962.7800.4543.14800.84600.26892.5110.4363.24120.84180.28322.3000.4193.33480.83760.29772.0740.3983.46040.83200.31761.8520.3733.61840.82500.34331.6740.3513.77760.81800.36991.4020.3114.09980.80400.4257

5.2140.6083.46920.87880.20244.5140.6003.50580.87760.20633.8080.5843.57910.87520.21423.3930.5693.65260.87280.22223.0960.5543.72630.87040.23042.8660.5403.80010.86800.23872.5960.5203.91130.86440.25142.3820.5014.02290.86080.26442.1540.4784.17240.85600.28221.9290.4504.36040.85000.30521.7480.4254.54950.84400.32911.4720.3814.93160.83200.3792

5.3210.7164.30810.89900.17434.6200.7064.35300.89800.17773.9130.6894.44300.89600.18463.4950.6724.53330.89400.19153.1970.6554.62370.89200.19862.9650.6404.71430.89000.20582.6920.6174.85060.88700.21692.4760.5964.98730.88400.22822.2460.5695.17020.88000.24362.0170.5385.40000.87500.26371.8330.5105.63100.87000.28441.5510.4606.09680.86000.3281

5.4480.8435.56780.91920.14414.7460.8325.62530.91840.14694.0360.8125.74040.91680.15263.6170.7935.85570.91520.15843.3170.7755.97120.91360.16433.0830.7576.08680.91200.17032.8070.7316.26070.90960.17952.5880.7076.43500.90720.18892.3540.6776.66810.90400.20182.1210.6426.96050.90000.21851.9330.6107.25420.89600.23581.6440.5547.84530.88800.2724

5.6071.0017.66930.93940.11164.9030.9907.74770.93880.11384.1910.9677.90450.93760.11823.7680.9448.06150.93640.12273.4650.9238.21870.93520.12733.2290.9038.37610.93400.13202.9490.8748.61250.93220.13922.7270.8468.84940.93040.14652.4880.8119.16600.92800.15662.2500.7729.56280.92500.16962.0580.7359.96080.92200.18321.7600.67010.76060.91600.2118

5.8241.21811.87510.95960.07685.1181.20411.99510.95920.07834.4011.17712.23530.95840.08133.9751.15112.47570.95760.08453.6681.12612.71630.95680.08763.4281.10212.95710.95600.09093.1431.06813.31860.95480.09582.9161.03513.68060.95360.10092.6710.99514.16390.95200.10792.4260.94814.76920.95000.11702.2270.90415.37580.94800.12641.9180.82716.59260.94400.1463

6.1821.57724.49750.97980.03965.4731.55924.74260.97960.04044.7491.52525.23280.97920.04204.3171.49325.72330.97880.04364.0041.46226.21390.97840.04523.7581.43226.70480.97800.04693.4641.38927.44140.97740.04953.2291.34828.17850.97680.05212.9741.29729.16190.97600.05582.7171.23830.39240.97500.06052.5071.18431.62410.97400.06542.1781.08834.09130.97200.0758

dn =0.025

dm =0.2Pmin = 1Cn =1.7917594692Pmax =6

mu = ln(m)np(n)tn(t)p(n)

0.6-0.5110.0006.0000.0200.00045.996

0.8-0.2230.0255.7370.7130.02085.781

1.00.0000.0505.4861.1190.04125.573

1.20.1820.0755.2461.4070.06165.373

1.40.3360.1005.0161.6320.08205.180

1.60.4700.1254.7961.8160.10244.994

1.80.5880.1504.5861.9720.12284.815

2.00.6930.1754.3852.1080.14324.642

2.20.7880.2004.1932.2280.16364.476

2.40.8750.2254.0092.3370.18404.315

2.60.9560.2503.8342.4360.20444.160

2.81.0300.2753.6662.5270.22484.011

3.01.0990.3003.5052.6120.24523.867

3.21.1630.3253.3522.6910.26563.728

3.41.2240.3503.2052.7660.28603.594

3.61.2810.3753.0642.8360.30643.465

3.81.3350.4002.9302.9040.32683.341

4.01.3860.4252.8022.9680.34723.221

4.21.4350.4502.6793.0300.36763.105

4.41.4820.4752.5623.0900.38802.994

4.61.5260.5002.4493.1480.40842.886

4.81.5690.5252.3423.2050.42882.783

5.01.6090.5502.2403.2600.44922.683

5.21.6490.5752.1413.3140.46962.587

5.41.6860.6002.0483.3670.49002.494

5.61.7230.6251.9583.4190.51042.404

5.81.7580.6501.8723.4710.53082.318

6.01.7920.6751.7903.5220.55122.235

0.7001.7123.5730.57162.155

0.7251.6373.6250.59202.077

0.7501.5653.6760.61242.003

0.7751.4973.7280.63281.931

0.8001.4313.7800.65321.861

0.8251.3683.8340.67361.795

0.8501.3083.8880.69401.730

0.8751.2513.9440.71441.668

0.9001.1964.0020.73481.608

0.9251.1444.0620.75521.551

0.9501.0944.1240.77561.495

0.9751.0464.1910.79601.441

1.0001.0004.2610.81641.390

4.3370.83681.340

4.4210.85721.292

4.5140.87761.245

4.6200.89801.201

4.7460.91841.157

4.9030.93881.116

5.1180.95921.076

5.4730.97961.037

0000000000000.01377142860.01377142860.09

0000000000000.03434285710.03434285710.28

0000000000000.06542857140.06542857140.56

0000000000000.12571428570.12571428570.76

0000000000000.24571428570.24571428570.9

0000000000000.460.460.96

0000000000000.68571428570.6857142857

0000000000000.85714285710.8571428571

0000000000000.94285714290.9428571429

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

0.01

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.13

0.16

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.40

2

Wi-Fi

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

000000000000

0.01

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.13

0.16

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.40

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

5 LCD

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

u=ln(m)

m

U

U = ln (m)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

p(n)

P(n) = Pmax*exp[-n(t)/Cn]

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

p(n(t))

P(n(t)) = Pmax*exp[-n(t)/Cn]

2410

6010

11450

22000

43000

80500

120000

150000

165000

199219931994199519961997199819992000

NMT-4502,4106,01011,45022,00043,00080,500120,000150,000165,000

1991.51.71750001.61750001.3100teorexper

19922,4100.50.290.0140.310.0140.380.09099.0

19936,0101.50.880.0340.940.0341.150.2802828.0

199411,4502.51.470.0651.560.0651.920.5605659.0

199522,0003.52.060.1262.190.1262.690.7607677.5

199643,0004.52.650.2462.810.2463.460.9009088.0

199780,5005.53.240.4603.440.4604.230.9609694.0

1998120,0006.53.820.6864.060.6865.000.000

1999150,0007.54.410.8574.690.8575.770.000

2000165,0008.55.000.9435.310.9436.540.000

2/28/04

23 (30)

"-" -

LCD 15" NEC 1550 (LCD 1550V) LBP1120

LBP112014 Oct 02$415.010/14/02

18 Nov 02$393.011/18/02

16 Dec 02$380.0$237.512/16/02

13 Jan 03$374.0$240.01/13/03

10 Feb 03$373.0$243.02/10/03

9 Feb 04$470.0$223.02/9/04

22 Mar 04$453.0$222.03/22/04

415237.5

393240

380243

374223

373222

470

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LCD-

.5. $US() LCD (, 14.10.02 - 22.03.04 ) (, 16.12.02 - 22.03.04)

MBD0056C6EF.xls

1957 . .

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617.218.19.78.7

730.432.213.214.1

844.547.314.115.1

972.671.328.1240

1084.78312.111.7

1193.391.78.68.7

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, ( . )

Jun-98570

Dec-981119

Mar-991262

Jun-991439

Sep-991910

Dec-992023

Mar-002667

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Jan-974.0%

Jan-996.0%

Jan-019.0%

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, ( . )

20024.6

2002-20035.5

20036.4

20036.1

20036.9

2003-20048.2

20048.5

20049.5

200410.1

2004-200510.3

200511

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200512.9

2005-200615.1

200615.6

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3 ( )1 ( ) ( )

%. .%. .%. .%. .

200288.777.666.544.6

2002-200399.688.777.755.5

20031011.5910.588.966.4

20031112.11010.88966.1

20031213.11011.699.966.9

2003-20041314.61213.31011.678.2

20041414.91213.7111288.5

20041516.91415.51213.499.5

20041617.31415.71213.7910.1

2004-20051617.615161314.2910.3

20051718.91617.51415.51011

20051920.91718.91516.11011.2

20052021.71819.71617.51212.9

2005-20062123.82022.21820.11315.1

20062124.32022.71820.61415.6

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2

Apr-94May-94Jun-94Jul-94Sep-94Nov-94Jan-95Mar-95May-95Jul-95Sep-95Nov-95Jan-96Mar-96Apr-96May-96Sep-96Nov-961997Mar-97May-97Jul-97Sep-97Nov-97Jan-98Mar-98May-98Jul-98Sep-98Nov-98Jan-99Mar-99May-99Jul-99Sep-99Nov-99Jan-00Mar-00May-00Jul-00Sep-00Nov-00Jan-01Mar-01May-01Jul-01Sep-01Nov-01Jan-02Mar-02May-02Jul-02Sep-02Nov-02Jan-03Mar-03May-03Jul-03Sep-03Nov-03Jan-04Mar-04May-04Jul-04Sep-04Nov-04Jan-05Mar-05May-05Jul-05Sep-05Nov-05Jan-06

654535525443343343333334233334433334444334455556677777910810101110111311101214121514161717

710763788768777971276910913116101111121010121411151518121414151614171918201921211823282531262634313026373632313135333837383838

2006

17

38

Jan-04Mar-04May-04Jul-04Sep-04Nov-04Jan-05Mar-05May-05Jul-05Sep-05Nov-05

101113111012141215141617

263736323131353338373838

Jan-02Mar-02May-02Jul-02Sep-02Nov-02Jan-03Mar-03May-03Jul-03Sep-03Nov-03

6777779108101011

212118232825312626343130

200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001

444334455556

181214141516141719182019

199819981998199819981998199919991999199919991999

233334433334

61011111210101214111515

199619961996199619961996199719971997199719971997

343343333334

7797127691091311

Apr-94May-94Jun-94Jul-94Sep-94Nov-94Jan-95Mar-95May-95Jul-95Sep-95Nov-95

654535525443

7107637887687

3

, . (1999 . )

Chart1

2.75

5.49

6.53

12.5

10.91

13.73

16.47

19.22

21.96

24.705

27.45

30.195

46.47

51.96

57.45

65.49

87.45

95.49

100.98

World Wide PC Shipments

Year

Millions of Units

World Wide PC Shipments, 1981-1999

Chart2

2.753.384

5.494.1076463616

6.534.9836726758

12.56.0430441788

10.917.3224876365

13.738.865309973

16.4710.722206607

19.2212.9519810364

21.9615.6220536671

24.70518.8085791372

27.4522.5959157478

30.19527.0750992052

46.4732.3408724454

51.9638.4867305399

57.4545.5973867868

65.4953.7381064892

87.4562.9405660702

95.4973.1853723349

100.9884.3822087031

World Wide PC Shipments

Fitted World Wide PC Shipments

Year

Millions of Units

Actual and Fitted Worldwide PC Shipments, 1981-1999

Chart3

2.753.384

5.494.1076463616

6.534.9836726758

12.56.0430441788

10.917.3224876365

13.738.865309973

16.4710.722206607

19.2212.9519810364

21.9615.6220536671

24.70518.8085791372

27.4522.5959157478

30.19527.0750992052

46.4732.3408724454

51.9638.4867305399

57.4545.5973867868

65.4953.7381064892

87.4562.9405660702

95.4973.1853723349

100.9884.3822087031

10096.3497923986

101108.7993185126

102121.3264896586

103133.4179599354

104144.4772493566

105153.8722322115

106161.0011415572

107165.3677583496

108166.6512970306

109164.7550347272

110159.8214777875

Peak2008

697 Million UnitsShipments through1999

Shipments Includes Replacements(Upgrades)

World Wide PC Shipments

Fitted World Wide PC Shipments

Year

Millions of Units

Actual Worldwide PC Shipments, 1981-1999 and Fitted and Projected Shipments, 1981-2010, m=3.384 Billion, p= .001, q= .195

Sheet1

YearWorld Wide PC ShipmentsTimeWorld Wide PC ShipmentsFitted World Wide PC Shipments

812.7502.753.384

825.4915.494.1076463616

836.5326.534.9836726758

8412.5312.56.0430441788

8510.91410.917.3224876365

8613.73513.738.865309973

8716.47616.4710.722206607

8819.22719.2212.9519810364

8921.96821.9615.6220536671

9024.705924.70518.8085791372

9127.451027.4522.5959157478

9230.1951130.19527.0750992052

9346.471246.4732.3408724454

9451.961351.9638.4867305399

9557.451457.4545.5973867868

9665.491565.4953.7381064892

9787.451687.4562.9405660702

9895.491795.4973.1853723349

99100.9818100.9884.3822087031

1001996.3497923986

10120108.7993185126Raw R-square (1-Residual/Total) = 0.996

10221121.3264896586Mean corrected R-square (1-Residual/Corrected) = 0.990

10322133.4179599354R(observed vs predicted) square = 0.990

10423144.4772493566Bass Model Estimates

10524153.8722322115Wald Confidence Interval

10625161.0011415572Parameter Estimate A.S.E. Param/ASE Lower < 95%> Upper

10726165.3677583496M 3384.069 1303.840 2.595 620.052 6148.086

10827166.6512970306P 0.001 0.000 3.795 0.001 0.002

10928164.7550347272Q 0.195 0.017 11.353 0.158 0.231

11029159.8214777875

697.2

Sheet2

Sheet3

, 10% ? . . . .

1 . . . $245 , 2004 ,

1

0.492

0.356

0.339

0.248

$245 , 2004 ,

1

18-2425-3435-4445-60

1, 44.855.846.551.649.9

2, , 4.9818.621.914.5

3, 1 1311.213.611.112.2

4, 2-3 , 12.610.69.55.99.3

5, 2-3 , 7.85.74.22.54.7

6, ( ), 1- 7.74.23.73.34.4

7, ( ), 1- 8.13.92.923.8

8 49.235.633.924.834.4

1.10.611.61.1

Count9441192146514995100

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-60

$245 , 2004 , 49.2%35.6%33.9%24.8%

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. ( ). . .

1 -2 340 000 12 . 200000 20000 . .

90

570

1119

1262

1439

1910

2023

2667

0.04

0.06

0.09

0.16

0.27

0.27

0.36

0.37

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-,

2002 2006

4.6

5.5

6.4

6.1

6.9

8.2

8.5

9.5

10.1

10.3

11

11.2

12.9

15.1

15.6

, ( . )

Jun-98570

Dec-981119

Mar-991262

Jun-991439

Sep-991910

Dec-992023

Mar-002667

-

Jan-974.0%

Jan-996.0%

Jan-019.0%

Jan-0216.0%

Jan-0327.0%

Jan-0427.0%

Jan-0536.0%

Jan-0637.0%

, ( . )

20024.6

2002-20035.5

20036.4

20036.1

20036.9

2003-20048.2

20048.5

20049.5

200410.1

2004-200510.3

200511

200511.2

200512.9

2005-200615.1

200615.6

-0.5

3 ( )1 ( ) ( )

%. .%. .%. .%. .

200288.777.666.544.6

2002-200399.688.777.755.5

20031011.5910.588.966.4

20031112.11010.88966.1

20031213.11011.699.966.9

2003-20041314.61213.31011.678.2

20041414.91213.7111288.5

20041516.91415.51213.499.5

20041617.31415.71213.7910.1

2004-20051617.615161314.2910.3

20051718.91617.51415.51011

20051920.91718.91516.11011.2

20052021.71819.71617.51212.9

2005-20062123.82022.21820.11315.1

20062124.32022.71820.61415.6

-00.500.500.500.5

67

510

47

56

33

57

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28

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46

48

37

37

47

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37

412

37

36

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310

39

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410

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314

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414

517

519

518

520

619

621

721

718

723

728

725

931

1026

826

1034

1031

1130

1026

1137

1336

1132

1031

1231

1435

1233

1538

1437

1638

1738

1738

,

2

Apr-94May-94Jun-94Jul-94Sep-94Nov-94Jan-95Mar-95May-95Jul-95Sep-95Nov-95Jan-96Mar-96Apr-96May-96Sep-96Nov-961997Mar-97May-97Jul-97Sep-97Nov-97Jan-98Mar-98May-98Jul-98Sep-98Nov-98Jan-99Mar-99May-99Jul-99Sep-99Nov-99Jan-00Mar-00May-00Jul-00Sep-00Nov-00Jan-01Mar-01May-01Jul-01Sep-01Nov-01Jan-02Mar-02May-02Jul-02Sep-02Nov-02Jan-03Mar-03May-03Jul-03Sep-03Nov-03Jan-04Mar-04May-04Jul-04Sep-04Nov-04Jan-05Mar-05May-05Jul-05Sep-05Nov-05Jan-06

654535525443343343333334233334433334444334455556677777910810101110111311101214121514161717

710763788768777971276910913116101111121010121411151518121414151614171918201921211823282531262634313026373632313135333837383838

2006

17

38

Jan-04Mar-04May-04Jul-04Sep-04Nov-04Jan-05Mar-05May-05Jul-05Sep-05Nov-05

101113111012141215141617

263736323131353338373838

Jan-02Mar-02May-02Jul-02Sep-02Nov-02Jan-03Mar-03May-03Jul-03Sep-03Nov-03

6777779108101011

212118232825312626343130

200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001

444334455556

181214141516141719182019

199819981998199819981998199919991999199919991999

233334433334

61011111210101214111515

199619961996199619961996199719971997199719971997

343343333334

7797127691091311

Apr-94May-94Jun-94Jul-94Sep-94Nov-94Jan-95Mar-95May-95Jul-95Sep-95Nov-95

654535525443

7107637887687

3

2004 .

$250 $500- 250 , 7- 8 5,3%10,6%18,6%16,0%13,3%10,3%4,7%12,5% 300-350 , 10-12 18,6%31,4%30,1%32,9%27,2%24,7%14,2%27,0% 400-500 , 13-15 21,9%22,7%24,9%23,5%26,2%24,4%18,3%23,7% 600-700 , 20-25 17,2%17,9%10,7%11,4%17,2%16,1%13,6%14,6% 1000 , 30-35 11,9%8,1%6,3%4,6%8,3%9,8%18,3%8,6% 1200-1300 , 40-45 6,9%2,8%3,2%3,4%2,4%3,8%9,5%4,0% 1500-1800 , 50-60 3,9%1,4%1,9%1,4%1,0%3,0%7,1%2,4% 2000 , 70 3,6%1,4%1,1%1,4%1,0%2,0%4,1%1,8% $21,0$17,1$15,9$15,4$16,5$18,5$24,5$17,7 1,231,321,361,271,140,861,19 2,00%1,63%1,51%1,47%1,58%1,76%2,33%1,68%

,

, 2004

15% 27%

.: . .

,

1

22000

60000

80000

100000

120000

150000

197000

283000

301045

1

:

Aug-0422000

Sep-0460000

Oct-0480000

Jan-05100000

Mar-05120000

May-05150000

Aug-05197000

Mar-06283000

Jun-06301045

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( JSon&Partners)

2004 , , ndex 9121 . 20000, 100000.