ปัทมา เธียรวิศิษฎ์สกุล และทีมงาน...
DESCRIPTION
ปัทมา เธียรวิศิษฎ์สกุล และทีมงาน สำนักงานคณะกรรมการพัฒนาการเศรษฐกิจและสังคมแห่งชาติ. หลักการและแนวคิด การวิเคราะห์เศรษฐกิจมหภาค. การวิเคราะห์เศรษฐกิจมหภาค. วัตถุประสงค์ : เพื่อให้ผู้เข้ารับการอบรมมีความรู้พื้นฐานเกี่ยวกับหลักการ และแนวคิดในการวิเคราะห์เศรษฐกิจมหภาคในฐานะผู้ทำข้อมูล - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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: : () 3 ()
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/(3) (4)
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// (Demand side)(1) (2) (Supply side) ( )
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() ( )/ /
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() ( ) ( . )
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() :
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( ad hoc issues) SARS -
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(Macroeconomists)
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/
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(+) (Exchange Rate)
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GDP (Production side or Supply side) (Expenditure side or Demand side) C, I , G, X M GDP = C + I + G + (X - M) (Income side)
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GDP = Ag. + Non-Ag.Ag. Non-Ag.
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GDP
(GDP) (Value added) (Value added)
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GDP
( )253925402541254425452546p438.1447.2499.0468.9513.1595.063.482.484.3126.2135.9154.61,370.41,427.71,428.31,715.91,831.92,060.4 106.8119.0142.3166.7175.6190.9341.5271.8178.7154.5165.7175.6 762.9812.2785.9856.1866.0914.3249.0245.9230.9289.2309.6300.4 341.1370.0360.9427.0449.6465.2328.2309.2235.4151.4171.0202.2 155.2157.0153.4163.9171.7177.9171.3181.1195.3222.2244.7262.1149.2163.5181.7202.3211.3220.968.876.483.2104.8107.6106.8 58.962.860.677.185.096.26.26.77.07.37.57.8Gross Domestic Product, (GDP)4,611.04,732.64,626.45,133.55,446.05,930.4
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GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)C I G X M
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GDP .
: 2539254025412544254525462,949.33,063.73,017.03,522.13,717.23,991.0 - 2,479.83,017.02,505.32,941.03,113.53,360.6 - 469.52,587.0511.7581.1603.7630.41,892.92,505.31,035.41,181.31,243.11,425.3 - 1,422.3476.7588.9784.7865.71,038.3 - 470.6511.7446.6396.6377.5387.0&1,809.91,598.62,724.03,380.83,499.03,886.6&2,099.21,035.41,988.93,047.63,134.33,485.3GDP4,611.01,048.54,626.45,133.55,446.05,930.4
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(Macroeconomists) quantitative data (Prices) (Quantity or volume) (Value) = x
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(GDP) Nominal GDP Nominal GDP (GDP at current price) Real GDP Real GDP (GDP at constant prices)
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6 (6 most important macroeconomic data) (Real gross domestic product: real GDP) (Unemployment rate) (Inflation rate) (Interest rate) (Exchange rate) (SET index)
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2547
GDP Q1 = 6.7%
GDP Q2 = 6.4%
GDP Q3 = 6.0%
GDP Q4 = 5.1%
Demand side : Supply side :
2547 GDP =6.1 % = 2.7%
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( 1988)252325332543254425452546p20.213.610.310.410.010.223.127.836.436.236.737.94.66.02.52.52.52.4--3.83.93.83.53.15.62.82.83.03.2 36.435.242.042.241.840.6Gross Domestic Product, (GDP)100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
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( 1988)253925402541254425452546p9.39.310.310.410.010.21.72.02.02.12.22.232.833.733.636.236.737.9 2.62.83.13.43.43.36.34.83.32.52.52.4 16.916.616.115.314.814.33.53.43.73.93.83.5 8.69.19.310.110.29.97.16.45.02.83.03.2 3.73.84.14.04.03.92.62.83.33.23.33.22.22.42.92.82.72.61.01.11.41.41.41.3 1.61.71.81.92.02.00.10.10.10.10.10.1Gross Domestic Product, (GDP)100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
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: (%) : 40
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252325332543254425452546p78.265.963.264.263.963.3 - 66.557.154.055.055.054.8 - 11.78.89.29.28.98.529.539.119.919.719.920.8 - 20.433.212.512.813.815.2 - 9.15.97.46.96.15.7&21.436.564.760.764.564.6&29.741.549.846.049.750.1
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(%)
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: () : .
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(Supply side)
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8.76.76.925462547-4.96.4(%)-5.2-4.47.17.2GDP25475.16.16.1Q4Q3Q2Q1GDP Q4/2547-5.87.76.4-2.07.76.7
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-5.28.48.016.38.48.64.09.42.811.6Q3/47Q4/47-4.9
7.45.66.86.57.7 5.522.22.915.7
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2547
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:
2544254525462547Q1/47Q2/47Q3/47Q4/472548..MPI2.78.913.811.013.49.612.48.53.9CAP U62.262.067.566.270.567.168.171.171.2
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(Demand side)
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()2541254225432544254525462547-11.54.35.24.15.36.45.6-52.3-3.316.84.913.417.515.38.29.017.5-4.212.07.07.8-21.610.527.1-5.513.77.712.1GDP-10.54.44.82.25.36.96.1
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2547
2546 13.0 5.1 15.3
Chart1
3.52.90357852888.257.6535785288
3.52.60625620668.257.3562562066
3.52.40547263688.257.1554726368
3.52.30119880128.257.0511988012
3.51.7948846548.256.544884654
3.51.49196787158.256.2419678715
3.251.34619238488.256.3461923848
3.251.15419161688.256.1541916168
30.60717846467.8755.4821784646
31.30845771147.8756.1834577114
31.3101391657.8756.185139165
31.61248761157.8756.4874876115
31.71541501987.8756.5904150198
2.51.02362204727.56.0236220472
2.51.02362204727.56.0236220472
2.50.0320829227.55.032082922
2.5-0.26134122297.54.7386587771
2.50.23622047247.55.2362204724
2.50.33677482797.55.3367748279
2.51.03372434027.56.0337243402
2.51.13680623177.56.1368062317
2.51.13013698637.56.1301369863
2.51.42473118287.56.4247311828
2.251.46798631487.256.4679863148
2.251.46951219517.256.4695121951
21.70902036867.1256.8340203686
21.41804073717.1256.5430407371
21.61464354537.1256.7396435453
21.90403071027.1257.0290307102
21.80750721857.1256.9325072185
21.90375360927.1257.0287536092
21.7109826597.1256.835982659
21.61575408267.1256.7407540826
1.750.30212355216.755.3021235521
1.750.58945841396.755.5894584139
1.750.19810863246.755.1981086324
1.75-0.47652468546.754.5234753146
1.75-0.18423597686.754.8157640232
1.5-0.23577627776.6254.8892237223
1.5-0.13147792716.6254.9935220729
1.5-0.41754554176.6254.7074544583
1.25-0.47910662826.1254.3958933718
1.125-0.70192307695.6253.7980769231
1.125-1.0844140255.6253.415585975
1.125-0.59748803835.6253.9025119617
1-0.23691722175.6254.3880827783
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1-0.81470869155.6253.8102913085
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1-1.27488151665.6253.3501184834
1-1.45514636455.6253.1698536355
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1-2.02171860255.6252.6032813975
1-2.15.6252.525
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1-2.65.6252.025
3
MLR
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39.353838.8323
1/6/0439.1708538.8532
1/7/0439.0418538.85935
1/8/0438.9786538.8827
1/9/0438.96538.8883
1/12/0438.896938.8915
1/13/0438.853238.8969
1/14/0438.888338.95755
1/15/0438.9755538.962
1/16/0438.96238.965
1/19/0438.9873538.97465
1/20/0439.014738.97555
1/21/0438.9844538.97865
1/22/0438.979338.9793
1/23/0438.9940538.9832
1/26/0439.1893538.98445
1/27/0439.248338.98675
1/28/0439.0779538.98735
1/29/0439.166938.99405
1/30/0439.23438.99675
2/2/0439.1760539.0147
2/3/0439.14939.0273
2/4/0439.027339.0365
2/5/0438.9967539.04185
2/6/0439.045939.04455
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2/10/0438.9575539.07795
2/11/0438.882739.08185
2/12/0438.832339.09655
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2/17/0438.9746539.1169
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2/19/0439.0445539.1478
2/20/0439.1126539.149
2/23/0439.2292539.1657
2/24/0439.2248539.1669
2/25/0439.147839.17085
2/26/0439.219639.17605
2/27/0439.2801539.18935
3/1/0439.2096539.20965
3/2/0439.2247539.2196
3/3/0439.350239.22475
3/4/0439.4666539.22485
3/8/0439.476139.22925
3/9/0439.2860539.234
3/10/0439.336739.2483
3/11/0439.3657539.28015
3/12/0439.3553539.28085
3/15/0439.3987539.28605
3/16/0439.450239.3314
3/17/0439.377439.3367
3/18/0439.401639.34895
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3/22/0439.441339.3538
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3/29/0439.48539.4016
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3/31/0439.4080539.4165
4/1/0439.165739.4254
4/2/0439.1437539.4413
4/5/0439.0818539.44325
4/7/0439.0965539.4502
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4/9/0439.1075539.4554
4/12/0439.116939.46665
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4/19/0439.2808539.485
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5/4/0439.901139.9011
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5/18/0440.827940.54865
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5/26/0440.692440.62025
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6/11/0440.6202540.78345
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6/15/0440.9434540.8279
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6/21/0440.8488540.8507
6/22/0440.9281540.8921
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6/28/0440.850740.94345
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7/5/0440.659940.6599
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7/7/0440.753440.711
7/8/0440.737840.7274
7/9/0440.7383540.7378
7/12/0440.646340.73835
7/13/0440.681440.7481
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7/15/0440.7662540.7534
7/16/0440.809240.76625
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7/21/0440.8161540.81615
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7/26/0441.0645541.06455
7/27/0441.181841.1818
7/28/0441.3510541.2016
7/29/0441.3673541.2108
7/30/0441.3212541.2198
8/3/0441.28341.23655
8/4/0441.3528541.2397
8/5/0441.4053541.283
8/6/0441.4246541.29845
8/9/0441.331141.32125
8/10/0441.3300541.33005
8/11/0441.4418541.3311
8/13/0441.5073541.35105
8/16/0441.482741.35285
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8/18/0441.4374541.36
8/19/0441.4390541.36735
8/20/0441.38241.37335
8/23/0441.3837541.382
8/24/0441.4472541.38375
8/25/0441.4510541.40535
8/26/0441.6442541.42465
8/27/0441.577841.4285
8/30/0441.641.43745
8/31/0441.5993541.43905
9/1/0441.5597541.44185
9/2/0441.56641.4467
9/3/0441.4804541.44725
9/6/0441.5603541.45105
9/7/0441.6048541.46645
9/8/0441.6025541.48045
9/9/0441.556141.4827
9/10/0441.529641.50435
9/13/0441.5043541.50735
9/14/0441.3641.5209
9/15/0441.201641.5296
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9/22/0441.239741.566
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39.3538
39.17085
39.04185
38.97865
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39
38.85935
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41.37335
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41.4285
41.53
41.5209
41.4467
/ .
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41.6443
38.8323
3 MLR
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..3.502.618.257.40.9
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..3.501.498.256.22.0
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..3.001.617.8756.51.4
235218.03.001.727.8756.61.3
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..2.50-0.267.54.72.8
..2.500.247.55.22.3
..2.500.347.55.32.2
..2.501.037.56.01.5
..2.501.147.56.11.4
..2.501.137.56.11.4
..2.501.427.56.41.1
..2.251.477.256.50.8
235584.02.251.477.256.50.8
..2.001.717.1256.80.3
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..2.001.907.1257.00.1
..2.001.817.1256.90.2
..2.001.907.1257.00.1
..2.001.717.1256.80.3
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..1.750.306.755.31.4
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236679.01.00-1.705.6252.92.7
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0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0
0
0
0
3
MLR
%
/
DateInterbank OvernightRepurchase Rate
modeR/P 1 R/P 7 R/P 14
1/5/040.950.9062511.25
1/6/040.90.9062511.25
1/7/040.90.9062511.25
1/8/040.950.9062511.25
1/9/0410.9062511.25
1/12/041.10.9687511.25
1/13/041.05111.25
1/14/0410.937511.25
1/15/041.050.937511.25
1/16/041.1111.25
1/19/041.10.9687511.25
1/20/041.050.9687511.25
1/21/041.050.9687511.25
1/22/041.050.9687511.25
1/23/041.050.9687511.25
1/26/041.030.9687511.25
1/27/041.030.9687511.25
1/28/041.050.9687511.25
1/29/041.030.9687511.25
1/30/041.10.9687511.25
2/2/041.10.9687511.25
2/3/041.050.9687511.25
2/4/041.050.9687511.25
2/5/041.050.9687511.25
2/6/041.050.9687511.25
2/9/041.050.9687511.25
2/10/041.050.9687511.25
2/11/041.030.9687511.25
2/12/041.030.9687511.25
2/13/041.050.9687511.25
2/16/041.1111.25
2/17/041.10.9687511.25
2/18/041.060.9687511.25
2/19/041.050.9687511.25
2/20/041.050.9687511.25
2/23/041.05111.25
2/24/041.050.9687511.25
2/25/041.05111.25
2/26/041.050.9687511.25
2/27/041.1111.25
3/1/041.11.031251.06251.25
3/2/041.081.031251.031251.25
3/3/041.081.031251.031251.25
3/4/041.051.031251.031251.25
3/8/041.051.031251.031251.25
3/9/041.051.031251.031251.25
3/10/041.0311.031251.25
3/11/041.0311.031251.25
3/12/041.0311.031251.25
3/15/041.0511.031251.25
3/16/041.0511.031251.25
3/17/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/18/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/19/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/22/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/23/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/24/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/25/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/26/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/29/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/30/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/31/041.050.968751.031251.25
4/1/041.010.968751.031251.25
4/2/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/5/041.0311.031251.25
4/7/041.0311.031251.25
4/8/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/9/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/12/0410.93751.031251.25
4/16/041.020.93751.031251.25
4/19/041.030.93751.031251.25
4/20/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/21/041.050.968751.031251.25
4/22/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/23/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/26/041.0311.031251.25
4/27/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/28/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/29/041.030.93751.031251.25
4/30/041.030.93751.031251.25
5/4/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/6/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/7/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/10/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/11/041.030.93751.031251.25
5/12/041.020.93751.031251.25
5/13/041.030.93751.031251.25
5/14/041.020.93751.031251.25
5/17/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/18/041.0311.031251.25
5/19/041.0311.031251.25
5/20/041.0311.031251.25
5/21/041.0311.031251.25
5/24/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/25/041.0311.031251.25
5/26/041.0311.031251.25
5/27/041.0311.06251.25
5/28/041.0311.031251.25
5/31/041.050.968751.031251.25
6/1/041.050.968751.031251.25
6/3/041.051.06251.031251.25
6/4/041.061.031251.031251.25
6/7/041.0511.031251.25
6/8/041.0511.031251.25
6/9/041.030.968751.031251.25
6/10/041.0311.031251.25
6/11/041.0311.06251.25
6/14/041.0311.06251.25
6/15/041.030.968751.031251.25
6/16/041.020.968751.031251.25
6/17/041.020.968751.06251.25
6/18/041.030.968751.06251.25
6/21/041.031.031251.06251.25
6/22/041.0311.06251.25
6/23/041.0311.031251.25
6/24/041.0311.06251.25
6/25/041.0311.06251.25
6/28/041.0211.06251.25
6/29/041.031.031251.06251.25
6/30/041.111.031251.25
0.950.9062511.25
0.90.9062511.25
0.90.9062511.25
0.950.9062511.25
10.9062511.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.05111.25
10.937511.25
1.050.937511.25
1.1111.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.1111.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.060.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.05111.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.05111.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.1111.25
1.11.031251.06251.25
1.081.031251.031251.25
1.081.031251.031251.25
1.051.031251.031251.25
1.051.031251.031251.25
1.051.031251.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0511.031251.25
1.0511.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.050.968751.031251.25
1.010.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
10.93751.031251.25
1.020.93751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.050.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.020.93751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.020.93751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.050.968751.031251.25
1.050.968751.031251.25
1.051.06251.031251.25
1.061.031251.031251.25
1.0511.031251.25
1.0511.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.020.968751.031251.25
1.020.968751.06251.25
1.030.968751.06251.25
1.031.031251.06251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0211.06251.25
1.031.031251.06251.25
Interbank Overnight
R/P 1
R/P 7
R/P 14
%
-
(Farm Income) ..: .
-
9.6 7.3 19.0
-
(%) - - () 8.114.413.9Q312.014.225473.815.517.8Q212.916.110.318.519.1Q116.718.6-0.817.417.8254611.917.528.213.211.2Q416.212.711.715.315.4254714.415.3
-
: ..
2546254725472548Q1Q2Q3Q4..PII57.064.462.065.066.164.463.0%Y-0-Y13.612.918.217.713.25.75.1
-
:
(% Y-O-Y)2546254725472548Q1Q2Q3Q4.. ( 38)5.35.812.611.07.6-6.43.9 25.117.726.518.8-1.027.036.2 33.722.239.741.818.91.58.7 5.212.212.911.411.013.619.6 16.07.312.412.414.8-8.96.9 -1.8-1.0-0.23.93.6-12.0-10.1 BOI 16.1115.335.899.826.0358.1898.3 74.6111.7148.551.556.9197.824.1 / -63.411.3-40.9-23.495.445.6273.9
-
: ... 48 942 USD 7 9
2544254525462547Q1Q2Q3Q42548.. (%)-7.14.818.223.021.924.625.420.311.6 (%)-3.04.617.427.026.635.129.518.233.6 (m.USD)2,4942,7393,7591,682236-1822411,387-1,475 (m.USD).6,2057,0087,9657,2892,1586351,4723,024-942
-
: . :
25462547Q1Q2Q3Q4..2548..Agriculture28.820.519.539.819.98.4-5.72.4Fishery7.01.39.1-7.2-6.29.816.8-7.0Manufacturing17.723.421.824.725.821.418.311.9 - Labour2.813.09.514.215.312.816.417.5 - High-tech18.228.626.830.231.526.220.013.5 - Resource12.89.07.62.612.114.013.45.6Total18.223.021.924.625.420.316.711.6 Price7.915.817.316.615.014.514.013.7 Quantity9.56.23.96.99.05.02.4-1.9
-
: . :
25462547Q1Q2Q3Q4..2548..Capital 14.920.819.722.225.45.8-11.421.1Raw material 17.532.531.128.237.033.416.628.7Consumer12.915.526.029.218.93.3-10.513.9Oil19.949.018.093.946.149.865.179.9Vehicle & parts36.717.530.921.319.32.3-16.719.3Total17.427.026.635.129.518.27.033.6 Price7.213.310.712.714.215.514.314.5 Quantity9.512.014.219.813.32.3-6.416.7
-
: 2547% Y-O-YSARS
2547254825462547Q1Q2Q3Q4.-. (%)57.264.467.557.663.568.864.2 ()10,00411,7392,9752,5372,9453,2831,802% Y-O-Y-7.417.34.475.114.05.1-14.8
2547254825472548806.9654.9808.3701.0(-18.8)(-13.2)654.7650.9608.6651.4(-0.6)(7.1)
-
: . Q3 Q4 Q3 , Q1 Q3 .. swap
254525462547Q1/47Q2/47Q3/47Q4/47Direct Inv.8411,466656-11379-1289Portfolio Inv-1,606-731,099143-6381,397197Other Inv.-3,427-9.393-1,631-1,746740-1,203578Capital Ac.-4,192-8,000124-1,6144811931,064
-
: .
254525462547Q1/47Q2/47Q3/47Q4/47Current Ac.7,0087,9657,2892,1586351,4723,024Capital Ac.-4,192-8,000124-1,6144811931,064BOP4,2341435,7359998521,0832,801
-
: .
()25412542254325442545254625477187137457768771,0131,1188438338539099569961,109-125-120-108-133-79168-4-34-21028-4-129-154-110-123-77244
-
: () : .
-
: : .
Chart1
3.52.90357852888.257.6535785288
3.52.60625620668.257.3562562066
3.52.40547263688.257.1554726368
3.52.30119880128.257.0511988012
3.51.7948846548.256.544884654
3.51.49196787158.256.2419678715
3.251.34619238488.256.3461923848
3.251.15419161688.256.1541916168
30.60717846467.8755.4821784646
31.30845771147.8756.1834577114
31.3101391657.8756.185139165
31.61248761157.8756.4874876115
31.71541501987.8756.5904150198
2.51.02362204727.56.0236220472
2.51.02362204727.56.0236220472
2.50.0320829227.55.032082922
2.5-0.26134122297.54.7386587771
2.50.23622047247.55.2362204724
2.50.33677482797.55.3367748279
2.51.03372434027.56.0337243402
2.51.13680623177.56.1368062317
2.51.13013698637.56.1301369863
2.51.42473118287.56.4247311828
2.251.46798631487.256.4679863148
2.251.46951219517.256.4695121951
21.70902036867.1256.8340203686
21.41804073717.1256.5430407371
21.61464354537.1256.7396435453
21.90403071027.1257.0290307102
21.80750721857.1256.9325072185
21.90375360927.1257.0287536092
21.7109826597.1256.835982659
21.61575408267.1256.7407540826
1.750.30212355216.755.3021235521
1.750.58945841396.755.5894584139
1.750.19810863246.755.1981086324
1.75-0.47652468546.754.5234753146
1.75-0.18423597686.754.8157640232
1.5-0.23577627776.6254.8892237223
1.5-0.13147792716.6254.9935220729
1.5-0.41754554176.6254.7074544583
1.25-0.47910662826.1254.3958933718
1.125-0.70192307695.6253.7980769231
1.125-1.0844140255.6253.415585975
1.125-0.59748803835.6253.9025119617
1-0.23691722175.6254.3880827783
1-0.81644359465.6253.8085564054
1-0.81470869155.6253.8102913085
1-0.23106060615.6254.3939393939
1-1.18216318795.6253.4428368121
1-1.27488151665.6253.3501184834
1-1.45514636455.6253.1698536355
1-1.44590780815.6253.1790921919
1-2.02171860255.6252.6032813975
1-2.15.6252.525
1-2.15.6252.525
1-2.65.6252.025
3
MLR
%
/ .
39.353838.8323
1/6/0439.1708538.8532
1/7/0439.0418538.85935
1/8/0438.9786538.8827
1/9/0438.96538.8883
1/12/0438.896938.8915
1/13/0438.853238.8969
1/14/0438.888338.95755
1/15/0438.9755538.962
1/16/0438.96238.965
1/19/0438.9873538.97465
1/20/0439.014738.97555
1/21/0438.9844538.97865
1/22/0438.979338.9793
1/23/0438.9940538.9832
1/26/0439.1893538.98445
1/27/0439.248338.98675
1/28/0439.0779538.98735
1/29/0439.166938.99405
1/30/0439.23438.99675
2/2/0439.1760539.0147
2/3/0439.14939.0273
2/4/0439.027339.0365
2/5/0438.9967539.04185
2/6/0439.045939.04455
2/9/0438.9867539.0459
2/10/0438.9575539.07795
2/11/0438.882739.08185
2/12/0438.832339.09655
2/13/043939.10755
2/16/0438.8593539.11265
2/17/0438.9746539.1169
2/18/0438.983239.14375
2/19/0439.0445539.1478
2/20/0439.1126539.149
2/23/0439.2292539.1657
2/24/0439.2248539.1669
2/25/0439.147839.17085
2/26/0439.219639.17605
2/27/0439.2801539.18935
3/1/0439.2096539.20965
3/2/0439.2247539.2196
3/3/0439.350239.22475
3/4/0439.4666539.22485
3/8/0439.476139.22925
3/9/0439.2860539.234
3/10/0439.336739.2483
3/11/0439.3657539.28015
3/12/0439.3553539.28085
3/15/0439.3987539.28605
3/16/0439.450239.3314
3/17/0439.377439.3367
3/18/0439.401639.34895
3/19/0439.3489539.3502
3/22/0439.441339.3538
3/23/0439.416539.35535
3/24/0439.455439.36575
3/25/0439.455439.3774
3/26/0439.5238539.39875
3/29/0439.48539.4016
3/30/0439.522139.40805
3/31/0439.4080539.4165
4/1/0439.165739.4254
4/2/0439.1437539.4413
4/5/0439.0818539.44325
4/7/0439.0965539.4502
4/8/0439.036539.4554
4/9/0439.1075539.4554
4/12/0439.116939.46665
4/16/0439.425439.4761
4/19/0439.2808539.485
4/20/0439.331439.5221
4/21/0439.4432539.52385
4/22/0439.560339.5433
4/23/0439.5573539.55735
4/26/0439.543339.5603
4/27/0439.57539.575
4/28/0439.697739.6977
4/29/0439.873639.74255
4/30/0439.9545539.8736
5/4/0439.901139.9011
5/6/0439.7425539.92095
5/7/0439.9209539.95455
5/10/0440.34540.345
5/11/0440.5486540.46325
5/12/0440.4632540.47055
5/13/0440.604840.50985
5/14/0440.7834540.51605
5/17/0440.763240.5345
5/18/0440.827940.54865
5/19/0440.65840.54885
5/20/0440.669940.5545
5/21/0440.755640.58685
5/24/0440.685140.6048
5/25/0440.762940.6066
5/26/0440.692440.62025
5/27/0440.6835540.658
5/28/0440.534540.6676
5/31/0440.4705540.6699
6/1/0440.554540.68355
6/3/0440.606640.6851
6/4/0440.667640.6924
6/7/0440.5488540.7556
6/8/0440.5098540.7629
6/9/0440.5160540.7632
6/10/0440.5868540.77675
6/11/0440.6202540.78345
6/14/0440.787740.7877
6/15/0440.9434540.8279
6/16/0440.838740.8387
6/17/0440.91340.84825
6/18/0440.8482540.84885
6/21/0440.8488540.8507
6/22/0440.9281540.8921
6/23/0440.922940.913
6/24/0440.892140.9229
6/25/0440.7767540.92815
6/28/0440.850740.94345
6/29/0440.8516
6/30/0440.88545
7/2/0440.750340.6463
7/5/0440.659940.6599
7/6/0440.7691540.6814
7/7/0440.753440.711
7/8/0440.737840.7274
7/9/0440.7383540.7378
7/12/0440.646340.73835
7/13/0440.681440.7481
7/14/0440.71140.7503
7/15/0440.7662540.7534
7/16/0440.809240.76625
7/19/0440.727440.76915
7/20/0440.748140.8092
7/21/0440.8161540.81615
7/22/0440.969540.96515
7/23/0440.9651540.9695
7/26/0441.0645541.06455
7/27/0441.181841.1818
7/28/0441.3510541.2016
7/29/0441.3673541.2108
7/30/0441.3212541.2198
8/3/0441.28341.23655
8/4/0441.3528541.2397
8/5/0441.4053541.283
8/6/0441.4246541.29845
8/9/0441.331141.32125
8/10/0441.3300541.33005
8/11/0441.4418541.3311
8/13/0441.5073541.35105
8/16/0441.482741.35285
8/17/0441.4664541.3568
8/18/0441.4374541.36
8/19/0441.4390541.36735
8/20/0441.38241.37335
8/23/0441.3837541.382
8/24/0441.4472541.38375
8/25/0441.4510541.40535
8/26/0441.6442541.42465
8/27/0441.577841.4285
8/30/0441.641.43745
8/31/0441.5993541.43905
9/1/0441.5597541.44185
9/2/0441.56641.4467
9/3/0441.4804541.44725
9/6/0441.5603541.45105
9/7/0441.6048541.46645
9/8/0441.6025541.48045
9/9/0441.556141.4827
9/10/0441.529641.50435
9/13/0441.5043541.50735
9/14/0441.3641.5209
9/15/0441.201641.5296
9/16/0441.219841.53
9/17/0441.210841.5561
9/20/0441.2365541.55975
9/21/0441.2984541.56035
9/22/0441.239741.566
9/23/0441.3733541.5778
9/24/0441.356841.59935
9/27/0441.428541.60255
9/28/0441.5341.60485
9/29/0441.520941.6102
9/30/0441.446741.64425
39.3538
39.17085
39.04185
38.97865
38.965
38.8969
38.8532
38.8883
38.97555
38.962
38.98735
39.0147
38.98445
38.9793
38.99405
39.18935
39.2483
39.07795
39.1669
39.234
39.17605
39.149
39.0273
38.99675
39.0459
38.98675
38.95755
38.8827
38.8323
39
38.85935
38.97465
38.9832
39.04455
39.11265
39.22925
39.22485
39.1478
39.2196
39.28015
39.20965
39.22475
39.3502
39.46665
39.4761
39.28605
39.3367
39.36575
39.35535
39.39875
39.4502
39.3774
39.4016
39.34895
39.4413
39.4165
39.4554
39.4554
39.52385
39.485
39.5221
39.40805
39.1657
39.14375
39.08185
39.09655
39.0365
39.10755
39.1169
39.4254
39.28085
39.3314
39.44325
39.5603
39.55735
39.5433
39.575
39.6977
39.8736
39.95455
39.9011
39.74255
39.92095
40.345
40.54865
40.46325
40.6048
40.78345
40.7632
40.8279
40.658
40.6699
40.7556
40.6851
40.7629
40.6924
40.68355
40.5345
40.47055
40.5545
40.6066
40.6676
40.54885
40.50985
40.51605
40.58685
40.62025
40.7877
40.94345
40.8387
40.913
40.84825
40.84885
40.92815
40.9229
40.8921
40.77675
40.8507
40.8516
40.88545
40.7503
40.6599
40.76915
40.7534
40.7378
40.73835
40.6463
40.6814
40.711
40.76625
40.8092
40.7274
40.7481
40.81615
40.9695
40.96515
41.06455
41.1818
41.35105
41.36735
41.32125
41.283
41.35285
41.40535
41.42465
41.3311
41.33005
41.44185
41.50735
41.4827
41.46645
41.43745
41.43905
41.382
41.38375
41.44725
41.45105
41.64425
41.5778
41.6
41.59935
41.55975
41.566
41.48045
41.56035
41.60485
41.60255
41.5561
41.5296
41.50435
41.36
41.2016
41.2198
41.2108
41.23655
41.29845
41.2397
41.37335
41.3568
41.4285
41.53
41.5209
41.4467
/ .
.(.. - ..47)
41.6443
38.8323
3 MLR
234853.03.502.908.257.70.6
..3.502.618.257.40.9
..3.502.418.257.21.1
..3.502.308.257.11.2
..3.501.798.256.51.7
..3.501.498.256.22.0
..3.251.358.256.31.9
..3.251.158.256.22.1
..3.000.617.8755.52.4
..3.001.317.8756.21.7
..3.001.317.8756.21.7
..3.001.617.8756.51.4
235218.03.001.727.8756.61.3
..2.501.027.56.01.5
..2.501.027.56.01.5
..2.500.037.55.02.5
..2.50-0.267.54.72.8
..2.500.247.55.22.3
..2.500.347.55.32.2
..2.501.037.56.01.5
..2.501.147.56.11.4
..2.501.137.56.11.4
..2.501.427.56.41.1
..2.251.477.256.50.8
235584.02.251.477.256.50.8
..2.001.717.1256.80.3
..2.001.427.1256.50.6
..2.001.617.1256.70.4
..2.001.907.1257.00.1
..2.001.817.1256.90.2
..2.001.907.1257.00.1
..2.001.717.1256.80.3
..2.001.627.1256.70.4
..1.750.306.755.31.4
..1.750.596.755.61.2
..1.750.206.755.21.6
235949.01.75-0.486.754.52.2
..1.75-0.186.754.81.9
..1.50-0.246.6254.91.7
..1.50-0.136.6255.01.6
..1.50-0.426.6254.71.9
..1.25-0.486.1254.41.7
..1.13-0.705.6253.81.8
..1.13-1.085.6253.42.2
..1.13-0.605.6253.91.7
..1.00-0.245.6254.41.2
..1.00-0.825.6253.81.8
..1.00-0.815.6253.81.8
236314.01.00-0.235.6254.41.2
..1.00-1.185.6253.42.2
..1.00-1.275.6253.42.3
..1.00-1.465.6253.22.5
..1.00-1.455.6253.22.4
..1.00-2.025.6252.63.0
..1.00-2.105.6252.53.1
..1.00-2.105.6252.53.1
..1.00-2.605.6252.03.6
..1.00-2.505.6252.13.5
..1.00-2.005.6252.63.0
..1.00-1.905.6252.72.9
236679.01.00-1.705.6252.92.7
3
MLR
%
/
DateInterbank OvernightRepurchase Rate
modeR/P 1 R/P 7 R/P 14
1/5/040.950.9062511.25
1/6/040.90.9062511.25
1/7/040.90.9062511.25
1/8/040.950.9062511.25
1/9/0410.9062511.25
1/12/041.10.9687511.25
1/13/041.05111.25
1/14/0410.937511.25
1/15/041.050.937511.25
1/16/041.1111.25
1/19/041.10.9687511.25
1/20/041.050.9687511.25
1/21/041.050.9687511.25
1/22/041.050.9687511.25
1/23/041.050.9687511.25
1/26/041.030.9687511.25
1/27/041.030.9687511.25
1/28/041.050.9687511.25
1/29/041.030.9687511.25
1/30/041.10.9687511.25
2/2/041.10.9687511.25
2/3/041.050.9687511.25
2/4/041.050.9687511.25
2/5/041.050.9687511.25
2/6/041.050.9687511.25
2/9/041.050.9687511.25
2/10/041.050.9687511.25
2/11/041.030.9687511.25
2/12/041.030.9687511.25
2/13/041.050.9687511.25
2/16/041.1111.25
2/17/041.10.9687511.25
2/18/041.060.9687511.25
2/19/041.050.9687511.25
2/20/041.050.9687511.25
2/23/041.05111.25
2/24/041.050.9687511.25
2/25/041.05111.25
2/26/041.050.9687511.25
2/27/041.1111.25
3/1/041.11.031251.06251.25
3/2/041.081.031251.031251.25
3/3/041.081.031251.031251.25
3/4/041.051.031251.031251.25
3/8/041.051.031251.031251.25
3/9/041.051.031251.031251.25
3/10/041.0311.031251.25
3/11/041.0311.031251.25
3/12/041.0311.031251.25
3/15/041.0511.031251.25
3/16/041.0511.031251.25
3/17/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/18/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/19/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/22/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/23/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/24/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/25/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/26/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/29/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/30/041.030.968751.031251.25
3/31/041.050.968751.031251.25
4/1/041.010.968751.031251.25
4/2/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/5/041.0311.031251.25
4/7/041.0311.031251.25
4/8/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/9/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/12/0410.93751.031251.25
4/16/041.020.93751.031251.25
4/19/041.030.93751.031251.25
4/20/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/21/041.050.968751.031251.25
4/22/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/23/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/26/041.0311.031251.25
4/27/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/28/041.030.968751.031251.25
4/29/041.030.93751.031251.25
4/30/041.030.93751.031251.25
5/4/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/6/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/7/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/10/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/11/041.030.93751.031251.25
5/12/041.020.93751.031251.25
5/13/041.030.93751.031251.25
5/14/041.020.93751.031251.25
5/17/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/18/041.0311.031251.25
5/19/041.0311.031251.25
5/20/041.0311.031251.25
5/21/041.0311.031251.25
5/24/041.030.968751.031251.25
5/25/041.0311.031251.25
5/26/041.0311.031251.25
5/27/041.0311.06251.25
5/28/041.0311.031251.25
5/31/041.050.968751.031251.25
6/1/041.050.968751.031251.25
6/3/041.051.06251.031251.25
6/4/041.061.031251.031251.25
6/7/041.0511.031251.25
6/8/041.0511.031251.25
6/9/041.030.968751.031251.25
6/10/041.0311.031251.25
6/11/041.0311.06251.25
6/14/041.0311.06251.25
6/15/041.030.968751.031251.25
6/16/041.020.968751.031251.25
6/17/041.020.968751.06251.25
6/18/041.030.968751.06251.25
6/21/041.031.031251.06251.25
6/22/041.0311.06251.25
6/23/041.0311.031251.25
6/24/041.0311.06251.25
6/25/041.0311.06251.25
6/28/041.0211.06251.25
6/29/041.031.031251.06251.25
6/30/041.111.031251.25
0.950.9062511.25
0.90.9062511.25
0.90.9062511.25
0.950.9062511.25
10.9062511.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.05111.25
10.937511.25
1.050.937511.25
1.1111.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.030.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.1111.25
1.10.9687511.25
1.060.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.05111.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.05111.25
1.050.9687511.25
1.1111.25
1.11.031251.06251.25
1.081.031251.031251.25
1.081.031251.031251.25
1.051.031251.031251.25
1.051.031251.031251.25
1.051.031251.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0511.031251.25
1.0511.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.050.968751.031251.25
1.010.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
10.93751.031251.25
1.020.93751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.050.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.020.93751.031251.25
1.030.93751.031251.25
1.020.93751.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.050.968751.031251.25
1.050.968751.031251.25
1.051.06251.031251.25
1.061.031251.031251.25
1.0511.031251.25
1.0511.031251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.030.968751.031251.25
1.020.968751.031251.25
1.020.968751.06251.25
1.030.968751.06251.25
1.031.031251.06251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0311.031251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0311.06251.25
1.0211.06251.25
1.031.031251.06251.25
Interbank Overnight
R/P 1
R/P 7
R/P 14
%
-
: . : %NPLs . NPLs 2% 2549
254625472548 (..)1.82.82.7
-
31 July 0341.98 GDP 2546( ) 2540 2543 () ( ) : . : . .
-
/ US$ (RHS)
(LHS)()( US$) : . : .
-
( US$)() : . : . US$
-
: & ( . )
25472548Q1Q2Q3Q4.. ....(1-8)34.3329.7533.4936.7537.2939.241.0855.8733.6529.4533.336.335.5237.9239.8743.67 9547.2242.7546.3449.150.6847.5754.2758.29 HSD45.5438.340.9849.1353.7649.2352.5360.32
-
2547GDP Q1 = 6.7%GDP Q2 = 6.4%GDP Q3 = 6.0%GDP Q4 = 5.1% Demand side : Supply side : 2547 GDP =6.1 % = 2.7%
-
2548
-
2548 3.8
2548
-
/ 47 1 48 2548
-
( 48 1.5 ) OECD surplus capacity 2548 Tsunami
-
50,000 (. 25,685 25,942 ) (-) (-) 2548
-
7 2548
2548 = 6% 47 4825462547p2548f2548fGDP ( , )5,930.46,576.07,130.17,130.1 GDP ( %)6.96.15.5-6.55.5-6.5 ( %)11.914.412.215.6 ( %)5.85.45.75.7 (%)18.223.011.814.8 (%)17.426.915.520.2 (Bill.US$)3.81.7-0.4-3.2 (Bill.US$)8.07.36.41.9 GDP (%)5.64.53.41.0 (%)1.82.72.9-3.23.0-3.2
-
2548 38 . GDP 5.5 GDP 6.5 50,000 2548
-
/
-
/ ( ) () /
-
Think Economicand Social Strategy,Think NESDB....www.nesdb.go.th
Update 7 march 2003
Update 7 march 2003
Update 7 march 2003
Update 7 march 2003
Update 7 march 2003
Update 7 march 2003