統計學 : 應用與進階
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統計學 : 應用與進階. 第 1 章 : 統計學概說與資料處理. 什麼是統計學 統計學的應用 資料的種類 資料的呈現. 什麼是統計學. 統計學就是闡述如何收集 (collect), 分析 (analyze), 呈現 (present) 以及詮釋 (interpret) 資料 (data) 的一門藝術與科學 。 為何要研究資料 ? 驗證經濟理論 ( 事實上 , 我們意圖 否證經 濟理論 ) 提供經濟理論建構之指引與動機. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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(collect), (analyze), (present) (interpret) (data) ?(, )
"I have no data yet. It is a capital mistaketo theorise before one has data. Insensiblyone begins to twists facts to suit theories,instead of theories to suit facts.Sherlock Holmes, A Scandal in Bohemia (Sir ArthurConan Doyle)
vs. : : :
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vs. / vs.
(e.g. )(e.g. )(e.g. )(e.g. )(e.g. ):ILO15
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15 ().500 20,300 2.615 6Neyman Allocation20
100/1~101/81018
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()
889
()
/1990.8.19,7501991.8.111,0401992.8.112,3651993.8.1613,3501994.8.2014,0101995.8.114,8801996.9.115,3601997.10.1615,8402007.7.117,2802011.1.117,8802012.1.118,7801987~2011
vs. : , : :
Q: ?A: : ?, ?!/, (random shocks/stichastic shocks): ?!.....(qualitative data) , , , (quantitative data) , , , , 0 1 (): , , , : ,, , : , , 2006 : , 1972 2006 34:
86 99 98 99 99 83 86 75 94 98 99 92 95 85
?: !
:
(Mean): n
(Median):
MeanXXnXXXniinn112
MedianPosition of median in sequence
Positioning Point
Ordered: 75 83 85 86 86 92 94 95 98 98 99 99 99 99
(Quartiles) (Percentile)
Variance:
(Standard Deviation):Ordered : 75 83 85 86 86 92 94 95 98 98 99 99 99 99 QuartilesQPosition1 +114114143754n()().Q661Ordered: 75 83 85 86 86 92 94 95 98 98 99 99 99 99
QPosition2 214214147.5n()().Q9495294.52Ordered: 75 83 85 86 86 92 94 95 98 98 99 99 99 99
Q993QPosition3 3143141411.2511n()()
Percentile
Variance:SXXnXXnSiiniin221122221927583 9914159.3846 92 92 ()()()()where 92(Standard Deviation):Sample Standard Deviation
SSXXniin22117.7061()59.3846
(Skewness) ()
= 0 > 0 < 0
(Kurtosis) ()
(Normal distribution) = 3 (): < 3: > 3
k =
=