분산원장 기술과 디지털통화의 현황 및 시사점
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한국은행 - 분산원장 기술과 디지털통화의 현황 및 시사점TRANSCRIPT
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2016-2
2016. 1
(Tel : 02-750-6640, E-mail : [email protected])
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. 3
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. 34
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i I
1. ( ) (Ledger)
3 (TTP: Trusted Third Party)
,
3 (TTP)
( ) (Distributed Ledger)
P2P(Peer-to-Peer)
(peer nodes) ,
P2P
-
ii
(update)
: Santander(2015)
(1) (Efficiency), (2) (Security), (3) (Resilience), (4) (Transparency)
(Consensus)
2. (1) (Blockchain) (2) (Proof
of Work) (3) (Incentive) (Double spending)
(10)
-
iii
( () )
: www.ybrikman.com : Global Investment Research
(1) , (2) , (3) , (4)
7 ( 45GB)
1. ( )
(Digital currency) (ECB, 2015)
(Virtual currency) (Crypto-currency)
-
iv
, ,
( ) , (e-money)
, 1:1
P2P -
-
-
( )
/, ,
(/) (Legal tender) ( )
() (commodity)
() ( )
-
v2. ( ) Litecoin, Dash
( 670)
1 US$ 6 90%
($)1) ($)1)
Bitcoin 6,347 ( 91.3) 422.55 2009 BTC Ripple 213 ( 3.1) 0.0063 2012 XRP Litecoin 152 ( 2.2) 3.47 2011 LTC , (2.5)Ethereum 64 ( 0.9) 0.84 2015 Ether (12)Dash 18 ( 0.3) 3.03 2014 DASH Xcoin, DarkcoinDogecoin 14 ( 0.2) 0.0001 2013 DOGE Peercoin 9 ( 0.1) 0.41 2012 PPC : 1) 2015.12.29 , ( ) (%): http://www.coinmarketcap.com
( )
, ,
, ,
3. ( ) -
-
vi
( ) , , ,
, ,
(- ) (critical mass)
, - , ,
( )
, ,
, ,
, ,
,
,
-
vii
(1) , (2) , (3)
, ,
,
,
1.
,
-
viii
(BIS, 2015)
2. ( )
,
( )
,
( )
(private consortium)
3.
(Ripple )
-
ix
2012 (Gateway) (XRP) 2015.10 2015.8 2015.6 2,500 2015.12 (SEC)
,
,
-
x ,
()
()
,
( )
, , ,
-
iI IT
(Distributed Ledger)
BIS
2
95
362
484
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015
( )
: Coindesk
(Digital currency)
2015.12 400 ( )
2015 1)
100
200
300
400
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112
()
100
200
300
400
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112
()
: 1) : Blockchain.info
1/46
-
2/46
, ,
-
3/46
1.
.
(Ledger) (Record)
(M1)
,
, , -
,
: Santander(2015)
-
4/46
3 (TTP: Trusted Third Party)
IT
2014 (, , 155 ) IT 5.5 (66.2) 8.3% IT 9 (23) 3.8% (, 2014 )
3
.
(Distributed Ledger) P2P(Peer-to-Peer)
(peer nodes) ,
P2P
-
5/46
(update)
: Santander(2015)
( )
3
(Efficiency)
3
(Security)
-
6/46
(Resilience)
(single point of failure)
(Transparency)
(: Know Your Customer )
()
3
( ) (Consensus)
(Byzantine generals problem)#
#
(i) (ii) (iii)
-
7/46
2.
( )
(Double spending)
, 3 (TTP)
(Public key) (Private key)
(Bitcoin) (1) (Blockchain) (2) (Proof of Work) (3) (Incentive)
( 10) (block) (chain)
(Hash)
-
8/46
: www.ybrikman.com : Global Investment Research
(Longest Chain Rule)
( () )
1990 DDoS
(Hashing power)
(Mining)
25
-
9/46
( )
: IEEE(2015), (2015)
10% ( 6 ) 0.1%( )
1)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 6 12 18 24
q=0.1 q=0.2
z
Pz
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
q=0.1 q=0.2 q=0.3
()
()
Pz
z
: 1) 2) , ,
2014, 2012 (, 2015)
-
10/46
50% (51% )
51%
2013 , (ASIC: Application Specific Integrated Circuit)
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015
(GH/s)
: Blockchain.info
2015.12 7 4GH/s( 944 PetaFLOPS) 51% 1 8
(NUDT Tianhe-2) 34PetaFLOPS 2015 1,200 BitMain AntMiner S7(4,860GH/s)
15 , ,
-
11/46
( )
2~40(TWh) (The Economist, 2015)
2014 478TWh
( 7) ( 45GB)
1,700
-
12/46
Nakamoto(2009) (double payment)
,
,
(joint distribution)
,
-
13/46
1. .
ECB(2015) Virtual Currency Scheme a further analysis, ECB(2015)
(a digital representation of value)
(in some circumstances, can be used as an alternative to money)
, , (not issued by a central bank, credit institution or e-money institution)
(Digital currency) (Virtual currency), (Crypto-currency)
Digital currency () : ECB, , BaFin, (e-money ), ,
Virtual currency () : BIS, FATF, G7, , SEC, IRS, FINCEN, , , , , Riksbank, , ,
(e-money) (prepaid payment instruments)
,
(e-money) (stored value facility)
-
14/46
: BIS(2015)
. , (e-money)
3(TTP)
, 1:1 ( )
(, , )
3 (Ledger)
P2P
-
15/46
, 3 (TTP)
3
()
1:1
, P2P
,
, 1:1
P2P -
-
-
-
16/46
.
(/) (Legal tender)
48
( )
, ,
, , , ,
, , ,
(IOU liability)
, , ,
()
(commodity)
, (digital commodity)
-
17/46
,
,
,
,
()
( )
() (Xapo )
()
() 2015.5 (Bitcoin Investment Trust) (OTCQX)
-
18/46
(, , , )
, 3
3 ... () , ( "" ) ,
,
,
2. . Litecoin, Dash
( 670)
Coinmarketcap.com
, ,
Ripple, Ethereum ,
-
19/46
2015.12 63 US$
1 US$ 6 90%
($)1) ($)1)
Bitcoin 6,347 ( 91.3) 422.55 2009 BTC Ripple 213 ( 3.1) 0.0063 2012 XRP Litecoin 152 ( 2.2) 3.47 2011 LTC , (2.5)Ethereum 64 ( 0.9) 0.84 2015 Ether (12)Dash 18 ( 0.3) 3.03 2014 DASH Xcoin, DarkcoinDogecoin 14 ( 0.2) 0.0001 2013 DOGE Peercoin 9 ( 0.1) 0.41 2012 PPC : 1) 2015.12.29 , ( ) (%): http://www.coinmarketcap.com
.
,
2015.1~11 12.5 (2015.1~10 3 7)
2BTC(840) 4 6
-
2015
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
()
: Blockchain.info
-
20/46
2015.12 7,400 ( 120 )
1)
: 1) 2015.12.29. : Coinmap.org, Bitchain.co.kr
PG(Payment Gateway) 1%
, Bitpay, Coinbase, Gocoin
, , (eGift, Gyft )
,
.
, ,
-
21/46
2013.10 FBI (Silk Road) ,
(US Marshals Service) Ulbricht ( 26,000BTC 144,000BTC) (2014.6, 12, 2015.3, 11)
,
(Europol)
The Internet Organized Crime Threat Assessment, 2015.9
(pre-mine)
2013.7 (SEC) 7% (SEC v. Shavers)
2015.10 (SEC) (Gemcoin) 370
(2015.3) ()
()
-
22/46
()
2015.3 (uToken) 2015.9 57
(1) , (2) , (3) , (4)
, , (coinmarketcap )
,
3
(5), (
) (5)
-
23/46
3. . ( )
-
, ,
, , -
-
, ,
- -
- ,
- ,
-
(1 )
- -
-
- - ,
,
-
24/46
(hoarding)
-
, ,
: Okcoin, Btcn, Bitstamp, Itbit, Bitfinex (: , ) : Bitpay, Coinbase, Gocoin : F2pool, Antpool, BTCchina, Bitfury, Slush
(critical mass)
, - , , -
-
-
- - -
IT
- ,
-
-
25/46
( )
, ,
- , , ,
.
(1)
, ,
, ,
, , , ,
-
26/46
(2) ,
,
,
(BIS, 2015)
,
(FMI)
(, 2015)
( )
( )
-
27/46
( )
, , (BIS, 2015)
(Banking) (, 2014)
(BIS, 2015 )
, (BIS, 2015 )
, ,
Woodford(2000) (Unit of account) (, 2014)
-
28/46
,
-
29/46
1.
,
The Economist(2015.10.30), Yermack(2013)
(BIS, 2015)
, 2022 150~200 IT (Santander, 2015)
, , ,
, ,
, (CSD), (SSS), (TR)
, , (Smart contract) (The Economist, 2015)
, ,
-
30/46
2.
.
,
, (dye) (Colu)
, (Everledger)
(Lighthouse)
.
,
Ethereum:
() - (IOT: Internet of Things)
- , ,
.
-
31/46
(public)
(private consortium)
3.
(Ripple )
. , , JP, UBS
R3 CEV
2014
R3 CEV 2015.9.15(9) Barclays, BBVA, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Royal Bank of Scotland, State Street, UBS
2015.9.29(13)Bank of America, BNY Mellon, Citi, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Morgan Stanley, National Australia Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, Socit Gnrale, Toronto-Dominion Bank
2015.10.28(3) Mizuho Bank, Nordea, UniCredit.2015.11.19(5) BNP Paribas, Wells Fargo, ING, MacQuarie, the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
2015.12.17(12)BMO Financial Group, Danske Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, Natixis, Nomura, Northern Trust, OP Financial Group, Banco Santander, Scotiabank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, US Bancorp, Westpac Banking Corporation
-
32/46
,
RippleLabs (XRP)
2015.8 (Visa)
2015.9 , , Chain.com 3
2015.10
2015.6 Overstock 2,500 2015.12 (SEC)
2015.5 IT Factom ,
2015.12 (Linux Foundation) IT (Enterprise grade)
Accenture, ANZ Bank, Cisco, CLS, Credits, Deutsche Brse, Digital Asset Holdings, DTCC, Eris Industries, Fujitsu, IC3, IBM, Intel, J.P. Morgan, London Stock Exchange Group, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, R3, State Street, SWIFT, VMware, Wells Fargo
-
33/46
.
,
, , - 15 ,
: (2015)
R3 CEV
.
2015
One Bank Research Agenda, Discussion Paper, 2015.2
Money in a Digital World, 2014.11
(ESMA; European Securities and Markets Authority) , , (ESMA, 2015)
-
34/46
,
,
()
()
,
-
35/46
( )
BIS (CPMI)
, , ,
BitLicense
-
36/46
< >
, 2015, , KB , KB 2015-91, 11
, 2015, , , , 2015-27, 11
, 2013, , , 2013-2, 12
, 2015,2014 , 7
Ali, Robleh, John Barrdear, Roger Clews, and James Southgate, 2014.Innovations in payment technologies and the emergence of digital currencies, Bank of England, Quarterly Bulletin, Vol. 54, No. 3, September
_______,The economics of digital currencies, Bank of England, Quarterly Bulletin, Vol. 54, No. 3, September
Bank for Internal Settlements Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures(CPMI), 2015.Digital currencies, November
Bank of Canada, 2014.Money in a Digital World, Remarks by Carolyn Wilkins, Senior Deputy Governor, November
Bank of England, 2015.One Bank Research Agenda, Discussion paper, February
Bhme, Rainer, Nicolas Christin, Benjamin Edelman, and Tyler Moore, 2015.Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governance, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 29, No. 2, Spring
Conference of State Bank Supervisors, 2015.State Regulatory Requirements for Virtual Currency Activities CSBS Model Regulatory Framework, September
Dowd, Kevin and Martin Hutchinson, 2015.Bitcoin will bite the dust, Cato Journal, Vol. 35, No. 2, June
-
37/46
European Central Bank, 2012.Virtual currency schemes, December
_______, 2015.Virtual currency schemes a further analysis, February
European Securities and Markets Authority, 2015.Call for evidence Investment using virtual currency or distributed ledger technology, April
Europol, 2015.The Internet Organizaed Crime Threat Assessment (IOCTA) 2015, September
Financial Action Task Force, 2014.Virtual currencies Key Definitions and Potential AML/CFT Risks, FATF Report, June
Goldman Sachs, 2015.What if I Told You..., Emerging Theme Radar, December
Lo, Stephanie and J. Christina Wang, 2014.Bitcoin as Money?, Currenty Policy Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, No. 14-4, September
Nakamoto, Satoshi, 2008.Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, November
Santander Innoventures, Oliver Wyman, and Anthemis group, 2015. The Fintech 2.0 paper rebooting financial service, June
The Economist, 2011.Virtual currency Bits and Bob, June 13
_______, 2015.The Promise of the Blockchain the Trust Machine, October 30
Virtual Currency Today, 2015.Regulation of Virtual Currencies A Global Overview, February
Woodford, Michael, 2000. Monetary Policy in a World Without Money, NBER working paper, No. 7853, August
Yermack, David, 2013.Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An Economic Appraisal, NBER working paper, No. 19747, December
-
38/46
( )
0.0001BTC( 50)
1%
1%
() ,
(, ) , , ,
(pseudonymity)
(Mixing service) (Dash )
, (AML/CFT)
-
39/46
( ) , ,
( ) 7.68%(2015.2/4 )
(World Bank, Remittance Prices Worldwide)
( )
51% ( 1 )
10 (2 30), Ethereum(12)
(-)
2013.12 30 ( )
(nerd)
( )
2015.1~12 (- ) 4.1% 10% 24(6.6%)
-
40/46
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
100
200
300
400
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
,
(1/),(%)
: Coindesk
( ), , , ,
,
( ) ,
PC
(mining pool)
(USD/BTC)
-
41/46
(, ) ,
PC
,
( ) 7(10 4,200
1 60)
1,700 (The Economist, 2015)
45GB
(- )
IT
,
-
( )
2~40(TWh) (The Economist, 2015)
2014 478TWh
-
42/46
(, 2014)
(Proof of work) (brute-force)
(increasing return to scale)
(negative externality) (over-investment)
( )
F2POOL22%
AntPool21%
BTCCPool13%
BitFury11%
BW.COM8%
Slush6%
KnCMiner5%
21Inc3%
Eligius2%
Ghash.IO1%
8%
: 1) 2015.11.28.~2015.12.4 : Bitcoinchain.com
51%
51%
-
43/46
2013 ,
BIS, , ECB,
(FATF)
BIS CPMI - Retail Working Group
* * Digital currencies, 2015.11
- * BIS CPMI
* Virtual currencies: the legal and regulatory challenges 2013.6
Virtual currencies: legal, regulatory and policy implications 2014.5
ECB - * Virtual currency schemes 2012.10 Virtual currency schemes a further analysis, 2015.2
- * (future of money)
* The economics of digital currencies, 2015.3/4 Innovations in payment technologies and the emergence
of digital currencies,2015.3/4
- * Understanding platform-based digital currencies 2014.5 Competition in the cryptocurrency market 2014.8 Some economics of private digital currency 2013.11 Government and private e-money-like systems: Federal
Reserve notes and national bank notes 2015.6 The efficiency of private e-money-like systems: the US
experience with state bank notes, 2015.1 FATF -
* Virtual Currencies Key Definitions and Potential AML/CFT Risks, 2014.6
-
44/46
( )
(SEC) ,
,
ECB
, , , ,
(SEC) Investor Alert - Ponzi schemes Using Virtual
Currencies, 2013.7Investor Alert: Bitcoin and other Virtual Currency-related Investments 2014.5
(CFPB) Risks to consumers posed by virtual currencies 2014.8
(BaFin) Bitcoins: Supervisory assessment and risks to users 2014.2
Les dangers lis au dveloppement des monnaies virtuelles : lexemple du bitcoin, 2013.12
(FSMA)
Be careful with virtual money, such as bitcoin, 2014.1
DNB waarschuwt banken en betaalinstellingen voor integriteitsrisicos bij virtuele valutas 2014.6
2014.9( ) (IRS)
(IRS-2014-36)
, ,
-
45/46
, , , , ,
2015.10 (European Court of Justice)
2014 (GST: Goods and Services Tax)
IRS HMRC CRA ATO IRAS 2014.3 2014.3 2013.11,12 2014.8 2014.1
(property)(private
currency)
(commodity)
(asset) (services)
, , ,
1)
() x2) x x x
x x x ()
: 1) 2)
2015.6 (NYDFS) ,
(BitLicense)
, ,
-
46/46
45 2015.8.11 22 2015.9 Circle Internet Financial BitLicense
2015.9 (CSBS: Conference of State Bank Supervisors) (Model Regulatory Framework)
State Regulatory Requirements for Virtual Currency Activities CSBS Model Regulatory Framework, 2015.9
2015.9 (CFTC) (commodity)
CFTC (Commodity Exchange Act, CFTC Regulations)
2016
,
,
(2013.12) (2014.1) , ,
(dubious transaction)
:
-
()
1996.11 (G-10) 1996.12
1997.12 (RTGS)
1998. 2 1998.10 1998.12
1999.12
2000. 5 2000. 6 Payment Systems in Korea 2000.12 BIS
2001. 1 2001. 1 2001. 3
-
2002. 2 2002. 2 2002. 3 2002. 5 2002. 6 : 2002. 9 2002. 9 2002. 9 2002.11 2002.12
2003. 7 (BM) 2003. 9 2003.12
2004. 2 2004. 3 2004. 3 2004. 3 2004. 6 ( ) 2004.12
2005. 3 2005. 4 2005. 6 ( ) 2005. 6 2005. 9 2005.10 2005.11 Payment Systems in Korea 2005.11 2005.12 2005.12
-
2006. 5 ( ) 2006. 6 2006. 7 2006. 8 2006. 8 2006. 8 2006. 9 2006.10 2006.11 2006.12
2007. 1 2007. 6 ( ) 2007. 9 2007. 9
2008. 1 ECB 2008. 2 : 2008. 2 2008. 2 2008. 4 2008. 5 2008. 6 - 2008. 7 2008. 7 2008. 8 2008. 8 2008.11 2008.12 EDI
-
2009. 1 2009. 5 2009. 6 2009. 8 ( ) 2009. 9 2009.12 (2009 )
2010. 6 2010. 8 2010. 9 ( ) 2010. 9 CCP CCP 2010. 9 2010.10 Repo 2010.10 Payment Systems in Korea 2010.11 2010.12
2011. 1 2011. 2 2011. 4 (UN CUECIC) 2011. 4 2011. 4 2011. 6
2012. 6 2012. 7 RP 2012. 9 2012.10 2012.12 2012.12 Cashless society
-
2013. 4 RP CCP 2013. 5 2013. 5 2013. 9 RP 2013.11 2013.12
2014. 3 TR 2014. 6 CMS 2014. 6 2014. 6 2014. 7 2014. 8 2014.10 2014.11 2014.12 ASEAN+3 2014.12 CCP :
2015. 1 2014 2015. 4 2015.12
2016. 1 2015 2016. 1
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39www.bok.or.kr
2016 1 5 ()
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