Presented by

© April 2001

Larry Smarrlsmarr@soe.ucsd.edu

April 26, 2001

Future Planetary Scale Technology Disruptions

Presented by

© April 2001Page 2

The Emerging Information Power GridA Mobile Internet Powered by a Planetary Computer

• Wireless Access--Anywhere, Anytime

• Broadband to the Home and Small Businesses

• Vast Increase in Internet End Points• Embedded Processors• Sensors and Actuators• Information Appliances

• Highly Parallel Light Waves Through Fiber

• Emergence of a Planetary Computer

“The all optical fibersphere in the center finds its complement in the wireless ethersphere on the edge of the network.”

– George Gilder

Presented by

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Guerilla vs. Commercial Infrastructure

• Bottom Up

• Completely Decentralized

• Self-Assembling

• Use at Your Own Risk

• Paves the Way for Commercial Deployment

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Examples of Guerilla Infrastructure

• NSFnetInternet

• NCSA MosaicWeb

• NapsterPeer-to-Peer Storage

• SETI@homePeer-to-Peer Computing

• IEEE 802.11Broadband Wireless Internet

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The Internet is Poised to MoveThroughout the Physical World

Radio(1940s)

Internet(1990s)

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Broadband Wireless Internet is Here Today

• Create Wireless Internet “Watering Holes”• Ad Hoc IEEE 802.11 Domains

• Real Broadband--11 mbps 54 mbps• Security and Authentication Can be Added

• Home, Neighborhoods, Office, Schools?• MobileStar--Admiral Clubs, Starbucks, Major Hotels,

Restaurants, …• UCSD—Campus Buildings, Dorms, Coffee Shops…

“The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed”

– William Gibson, Author of Neuromancer

Presented by

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Will The Planned Global Rollout of 3G Proceed as Planned?

• The Economics of Telecom • The Huge Debt Load

• The Investment in 3G Buildout• Is There a Business Case to Recoup?     

• Technological Breakouts • IEEE 802.11 Buildout

• Will It Skim the Cream off 3G?        • 2.5G Can Deploy Now (Sprint PCS)

• Will 3G Standardize in Europe, Asia, US?        

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Why the Grid is the Future

Scientific American, January 2001

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Governor Davis Has Created Four New Institutes for Science, Innovation, and Tech Transfer

UCSBUCLA

The California NanoSystems Institute

UCSFUCB

The California Institute for Bioengineering, Biotechnology,

and Quantitative Biomedical Research

UCI

UCSD

The California Institute for Telecommunications

and Information Technology

The Center for Information Technology Research

in the Interest of Society(Proposed-UCB, UCD, UCSC, UCM)

UCSC

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The California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology

www.calit2.net

220 UCSD & UCI Faculty and StaffWorking in Multidisciplinary Teams

With Students, Industry, and the Community

The State Provides $100M for New Buildings, Laboratories, and High Tech Equipment

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A Broad Partnership Response from the Private Sector

Akamai, AMCC

Boeing, Broadcom

CAIMIS,Compaq

Conexant, Copper Mountain

Cox Communicaions

Emulex

Enterprise Partners VC

Entropia, Ericsson

Global Photon, IBM

IdeaEdge Ventures

Intersil, Irvine Sensors

Leap Wireless

Litton Industries

MedExpert, Merck

Microsoft, Mission Ventures

NCR, Newport Corp.

Orincon, Panoram Tech.

Printronix

QUALCOMM

R.W. Johnson Pharmaceutical

SAIC, SciFrame

Seagate Storage

Silicon Wave, Sony

STMicroelectronics

Sun Microsystems

TeraBurst Networks

Texas Instruments

UCSD Healthcare

The Unwired Fund, WebEx

ComputersCommunications

SoftwareSensors

BiomedicalStartups

Venture Firms

$140 M Match From Industry

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½ Mile

•Commodity Internet, Internet2•High-speed WAN (OC48+)•Link UCSD and UCI

• Campus Wireless

The UCSD “Living Grid Laboratory”—Fiber, Wireless, Compute, Data, Software

SIO

SDSC

CS

ChemMed

Eng. / Cal-(IT)2

Hosp

• High-speed optical core• 8 Gigabit now• 80 Gigabit in 18 months• 1 Terabit in 36 Months

Source: Phil Papadopoulos, SDSC

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Optically Linked High Resolution Data Analysis and Crisis Management Facilities

Planned for Fall 2001 at SIO and SDSUDriven by PC Clusters and AI Data Mining

Panoram Technologies, SGI, Sun, TeraBurst Networks,

Cox Communications, Global PhotonInstitute Industrial Partners

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Wireless Internet Can Put a Supercomputer in the Palm of Your Hand!

802.11b Wireless

Interactive Access to:• State of Computer• Job Status• Application Codes

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Creating Tiny and Inexpensive Wireless Internet Sensors Combining…

Fluids

Stresses and Strains

Optics and Lasers

UCI Integrated Nanosystems Research Facility

0.1 mm

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The Perfect Storm: Convergence of Engineering with BioMed, Physics, & IT

5 nanometersHuman Rhinovirus

IBM Quantum CorralIron Atoms on Copper400x

Magnification

VCSELaser

500x Magnification 2 mm

Nanogen MicroArray

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Goal: Design of Configurable Wireless Embedded Sensing/Computing/Communicating Appliances

Protocol Stacks

SoC DesignMethodologies

Sw/Silicon/MEMSImplementation

Memory

Protocol Processors

ProcessorsProcessors DSP

RFRFReconf.Logic

WirelessRTOS Network

TransportApplications

sensors

ProtocolsSw/Hw/Sensor/RF

Co-design Reconfiguration

Internet

Source: Sujit Dey, UCSD ECE

Data LinkPhysical

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The High PerformanceWireless Research and Education Network

NSF FundedPI, Hans-Werner Braun, SDSC

Co-PI, Frank Vernon, SIO45mbps Duplex Backbone

http://hpwren.ucsd.edu/Presentations/HPWREN

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The Wireless Internet Adds Bio-Chemical-Physical Sensors to the Grid

•From Experiments to Wireless

Infrastructure

•Scripps Institution of Oceanography•San Diego

Supercomputer Center•Cal-(IT)2

•From Global Warming to

Sewage Warning

Source: John Orcutt, SIO

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Pervasive Computing Means Overlaying the Physical and Cyber Realities

Source: Virginia Tech/Univ. Illinois, MIT, Univ Washington, UCSD

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How Will You Know if The People Are on the Internet?

It connects to the audio piece and works like a tiny monitor that projects an image through the really cool bug-eye monocle into my eye. It has lots of ‘serious’ applications, but my favorite is to watch ‘Buffy’.

My mom has already realized that when the video is on, the lenses become less transparent. That way she knows if I’m really paying attention to her or

reading my email. She’s caught on quickly.

http://wearables.www.media.mit.edu/projects/wearables/mit-ideo/

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Will People Find Their Cyber Lives More Compelling Than Their Physical Lives?

"EverQuest The online, real-time fantasy world lets players assume the roles of warriors and wizards for days on end... As the decade closed, this was the nearest you could get to being on a Star Trek holodeck."

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The Future Will Not Resemble the Past

The emergence of Peer-to-Peer computing signifies a revolution in connectivity that will

be as profound to the Internet of future as Mosaic was to the Web of the past.”

–Patrick Gelsinger, VP and CTO, Intel Corp.

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Entropia’s Planetary Computer Grew to a Teraflop in Only Two Years

Deployed in Over 80 Countries

The Great Mersenne Prime (2P-1) Search (GIMPS)Found the First Million Digit Prime (www.entropia.com)

Eight 1000p IBM Blue Horizons!

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SETI@home Demonstrated that PC Internet Computing Could Grow to Megacomputers

• Running on 500,000 PCs, ~1000 CPU Yrs./Day!• Over Half a Million CPU Years so far!• 22 Teraflops sustained 24x7

• Sophisticated Data & Signal Processing Analysis

• Distributes Datasets from Arecibo Radio Telescope

Next Step-Allen Telescope Array

AreciboRadio Telescope

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Companies Competing for Leadershipin Internet Computing

Intel Establishes Peer-to-Peer Working Group

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Extending the Grid to Planetary Dimensions

Using Distributed Computing and Storage

AutoDock Application Software Has Been Downloaded to Over 20,000 PCsOver 3 Million CPU-Hours Computed

In SilicoDrug Design

Art Olson, TSRI

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A Mobile Internet Powered by a Planetary Scale Computer

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Why Will a Million Processor Computer Be Different?

• Individual Processors Running at Gigaflops• One Million Means a Collective Petaflops in early 2000s• One Petaflops is Roughly a Human Brain-Second

• Morovec-Intelligent Robots and Mind Transferral

• Koza-Genetic Programming

• Kurzweil-The Age of Spiritual Machines

• Joy-Humans an Endangered Species?

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The Ultimate in Disruptive Technologies…

•Will the Planetary Grid Become Self-•Organizing?•Powered?•Aware?

Source: Hans Moravecwww.transhumanist.com/volume1/power_075.jpg

1 Million x