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Climate Change AdaptationDr Matt Huddleston, Principal Consultant – Climate Change

The Guardian Climate Change Summit 2008

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Current emissions

Michael Raupach et al., June 2007

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CO2e Stern (based on Meinhausen)

Met Office Hadley Centre

450 ppm 25 77% 77%

550 ppm 65-99% 99%

650 ppm 80-99% 99%

What are the chances of exceeding 2 and 4ºC above pre-industrial levels if we stabilise greenhouse gases?

Can we avoid dangerous climate change?

CO2e Stern (based on Meinhausen)

Met Office Hadley Centre

450 ppm 1-30% 3%

550 ppm 5 52% 25%

650 ppm 15 66% 60%

4ºC

- 75%

- 50%

- 65%

2ºC

The record temperatures of summer 2003 could become a bi-annual event by 2040

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Climate resilience

Informing on changing risks is essential

What is known and knowable?

Creating a climate of confidence

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Risks in your languageTransport & Network Rail

• Probability of heavy rain as defined by Network Rail

• Background of rail regions

• Chart designed specially to be received by field engineers on Blackberries

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Reacting to the impacts: Finance

Seasonal climate forecasts and historical data blended for view of near future.

Risk assessment informed in multi-billion pound decision.

Risk-based climate analysis –Protecting investments

Tailored forecast of UK drought risk 2006/07

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EP2: The Impact of Climate Change on the UK Energy Industry

Exploring risks – Reducing exposure

Increasing resilience

Met Office working with:

EDF Energy, EON, C.E. Electric, Centrica, National Grid, Northern Ireland Electricity, npower, Scottish Power, Scottish and Southern Energy, United Utilities, Western Power Distribution

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Essential forecasts for everyone, every dayMet Office