, experience at the israeli meteorological service yoav levi, head r&d
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, experience at the Israeli Meteorological Service
Yoav Levi, Head R&D
77 IMS personnel
2012 IMS News
• New data policy - the IMS stopped selling products (data and forecasts), as all IMS budget is covered by the government.
• Less employees for public services and more for research. R&D from 5 to 8 employees.
• A new HPC.
SGI HPC with 1024 cores 32 nodes of 2 AMD 16 core Opteron 6276
processors
HPC performance
IMS Research & Development
NWP at IMS
• IMS runs WRF, HRM and testing COSMO.
• IMS has decided to join COSMO and use it operationally for forecasting duties and upgrade our NWP skills.
• 2 young FTE’s and a consultation from Dr. Shimon Krichak from the Tel-Aviv Uni. (50%).
2012 Research
• MSG - Land Surface Temperature (LST) and IR to evaluate frost and cloud fraction in partial filed pixels (replace human observations).
• Could it be relevant for Soil and Surface working group (WG3b), conditional verification (WG5)?
Where vegetation is enhanced evapo-transpiration reduces temperature
COSMO_LST > MSG_LST
After DrySeason
70 km
Tel Aviv
Jerusalem
At springwith~2 octas
INCA-Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis.
• NWP interpolated and adjusted to 1 Km grid together with 85 AWS observation.
• Could it be relevant for Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation (KENDA), grid verification(WG5)?
Wind energy atlas
2013 - COSMO 2.8 km as input to a micro-
scale model
Forecast verification comparing to Bet Dagan Radiosond
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144
RM
SE
[oC
]
Forecast lead time [hr]
Temp 850 hPa Beit-Dagan Sonde vs. NWP models
IMS_MM5WRFECMWFNCEPUKMODWDTAU_MM5COSMOHRM
-IT
DA?
60 hour average RMSE for T2m
1.82.0
2.5
2.1 2.1
2.5 2.4
1.9
1.6
2.8
1.9
3.4
2.1
2.3
2.01.9
2.6
1.7
2.12.3
2.0
2.9
3.8
2.7
2.3
3.8 3.7
2.8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
ECMWF CO-IT GME CO-IL UKMO WRF HRM
RM
SE
Bet Dagan
Jerusalem
Haifa
Har Knaan
7km 7km 12km 14km16km 20km
Tel Aviv
:T2m:COSMO-IT:12Z+18h:Bet Dagan near Tel Aviv
Observations (oC)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-20 -10 0 10 20
Temperature error (oC)
התפלגות השגיאות :
222 )(
RMSE2 = STD2 + MBE2
y = 0.905x + 1.4628R² = 0.9482
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 12 24 36 48 60 72
Forecast range (hr)
RMSE for 12Z runs COSMO-IT Bet Dagan
Large RMSE at 06Z
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 12 24 36 48 60 72
Forecast range (hr)
Decrees RMSE
Temperature error (oC)
Last 7 Days bias correction
No correction
7 days bias correction
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-20 -10 0 10 20
כל המודלים
RMSE W/O correction
Forecast range (hr)
Bet Dagan – near Tel aviv
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240
ECBHCOIC
213/263 events
CO-IT
CO-IL
UKMO
ECMWF
12Z
6Z
18Z
כל המודלים
RMSE after bias correction
Forecast range (hr)
Bet Dagan – near Tel aviv
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240
ECBHCOICCO-IT
CO-IL
UKMO
ECMWF
Summery for Temperature verification
Mean 60-hours RMSE score without bias correctionECMWFUKMOCO-ITGFSWRFCO-ILHRMGME
Bet Dagan1.832.071.982.372.462.142.402.54
Jerusalem1.913.391.582.972.051.922.312.80
Haifa2.022.091.942.052.261.701.952.59
Har Knaan2.913.773.822.873.742.272.812.70
Mean 60-hours RMSE score with last 7 days bias correctionECMWFUKMOCO-ITGFSWRFCO-ILHRMGME
Bet Dagan1.381.441.581.641.671.671.681.65
Jerusalem1.512.241.332.101.521.551.712.08
Haifa1.671.651.451.451.591.421.641.63
Har Knaan1.742.231.751.591.721.571.951.95
COSMO-IL, nocturnal RH 10% underestimation
COSMO underestimates humidity!& misses fog
AWS obs.
We live in a dry environment but COSMO makes it worse!
CO-IT – icbc from ECMWFCO-IL – icbc from GME
obs obs obs obs obsCOCO
CO
COCO
Summary, IMS experience with
• Good Temperature and wind forecasts. • Underestimation of Relative Humidity and fog
appearance. • Strong underestimation of precipitation.• Hopefully we will mange together to improve
COSMO skills in the future.
Israeli Meteorological Service
Thanks