recording.aspx?fileid=la f3494 01282016070416378 …...jan 28, 2016 · • the "flood...
TRANSCRIPT
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National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call
January 28, 2016 10:00 AM EST
Listen to the recording here to follow along with the presentation: http://www.freeconferencecalling.com/recordings/Recording.aspx?fileid=LAF3494_01282016070416378_1172299&bridge=697620&email=&accountid=1116753
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NCR HUG Call Details Conference Call Details: 1. Dial-in: 1-302-202-1110 2. Conference code: 697620
Join the Meeting through Adobe Connect: (No Registration Required)Click here to access the Adobe Connect meeting
The call will be recorded and the audio will be combined with the presentation and sent out at the end of the call. The audio and presentation will also be made available on the following websites:
NCR HUG Use HAZUS page - http://www.usehazus.com/ncrhugNCR HUG LinkedIn page - http://www.linkedin.com/groups/National-Capitol-Region-HAZUS-User-4790251?trk=myg_ugrp_ovr
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Agenda• Welcome + Announcements
• The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program– Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM
• Group Discussion - Visualization of the Month: Future Conditions– We will be evaluating the quality of this visualization and existing best
practices for communicating future conditions.
• Request for Volunteers – Next NCR HUG Call
• Adjourn
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AnnouncementsUpcoming HAZUS Courses at EMI
The Emergency Management Institute (EMI) has the following HAZUS training course available:
E296 Application of Hazus-MH for Risk Assessment: March 21-24, 2016E313 Basic Hazus-MH: April 11-14, 2016E172 Hazus-MH for Flood: June 20-23 2016E176 Hazus-MH for Floodplain Managers: July 18-21, 2016E317 Comprehensive Data Management for Hazus-MH: August 29-September 1, 2016E179 Application of Hazus-MH for Disaster Operations: September 26-29, 2016
Please note that enrollment is closed for each course, 6 weeks prior to the course!• To apply for a HAZUS training course, please visit:
http://training.fema.gov/Apply/• To enroll, download the Admission Application or contact the • For further information on registration, please visit training.fema.gov/emiweb
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New Geospatial Resources & Natural hazard News. Ranked: Climate Change Prep in 6 U.S. Citieshttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/climate-change-cities-how-prepared
What Taking the Temperature of 50 U.S. Cities Revealshttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/heat-islands-study-cities-us-hottest-summer-winter
A Fix For Tokyo’s Oldest, Densest, Most Disaster-Prone Neighborhoodshttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/a-fix-for-tokyos-oldest-densest-most-disaster-prone-neighborhoods
Why New Orleans’ Katrina Evacuation Debacle Will Never Happen Againhttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/new-orleans-evacuation-hurricane-katrina-will-never-happen-again
USDA – Forest Service Geospatial Training opportunities for February 2016 http://fsweb.geotraining.fs.fed.us/www/index.php
ArcGIS for Emergency Management Update - http://esriurl.com/EMnewInitial Damage Assessment Webinar - http://esriurl.com/DamageWebinar
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The "Flood Risk" AwakensThe Emergence of Hazuswithin the FEMA NFIP Program
Dr. Shane Parson, PE, CFM
January 28, 2016
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Presentation TitlePresentation Sub-Title
Presenter’s Name
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What is Flood Risk?
Since the 1960’s, FEMA has mapped and analyzed data to try and show the impacts from flooding.Paper maps, paper reports, digital maps, digital reports, and websites have all tried to explain FLOOD RISK.
But now, there is a NEW HOPE of not just making maps, but showing flood risk from Hazus. But what is FLOOD RISK and how have things changed from the 1960’s to 2015 to the future …
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Agenda
Past: Flood Maps
Present: Flood Risk Products
Future: Future Conditions Flood Risk
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Decide on methods to show flood risk
Make products to show flood risk
Address why products do not meet expectations
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Episode I: The Flooding Menace
What is Flooding?
Overflow of water that submerges land which is usually dry
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Flooding = impacts to people and property
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Episode II: Attack of the FIRMs
What is Flood Mapping?
Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) show the Special Flood Hazard Area designated by FEMA standards
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Flood mapping = paper map to show where flooding happens
V Zone
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Episode III: Revenge of the Data
Why is the Flood Mapping still Wrong?
Mapping is based on best available data and models FOR THE BUDGET AVAILABLE
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Episode IV: A New Hope – Risk MAP
What is Flood Risk?
Floods damaging something of value
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Episode V: The Data Strikes Back
How do we model Flood Risk?
GIS-based tools like Hazususing best available data
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Automated Modeling Processes
1. Storm Event Analysis
2. Hydrology Analysis
3. Hydraulic Analysis4. Flood Boundary Analysis
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Hazus Outputs
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Methods and Tools must
not get frozen in time…
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Episode VI: Return of the Risk
Why is Flood Risk Modeling still Wrong?
GIS-based tools like Hazususing best available data
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The balancing act and managing expectations
How well is what is at
risk defined?
(Inventory)
How accurate is the loss estimation methodology?
How well is the hazard defined?
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The challenge with homogenous census block analysis
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–Flood Risk Assessment Data• 2010 HAZUS Average Annualized Loss (AAL) Study
Data• Refined HAZUS and Other Risk Analyses Data• Composite Data
HAZUS MH Flood Risk Assessment
Flood Risk Assessment Datasets
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Seemed like a good idea
at the time…….
1. Jar Jar's the key to
all this, if we get Jar
Jar working. 'Cause
he's a funnier
character than we've
ever had in the movies.
– George Lucas (1999)
2. 2010 AAL Study
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Episode VII: The “Real” Flood Risk Awakens
How is flood risk going to change in the future?
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Always In Motion
The Future Is.
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FEMA Technical Mapping Advisory Council (TMAC)
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TMAC 2015 Annual Report
Recommendation No. 10: FEMA should transition from identifying the 1-percent-annual-chance floodplain and associated base flood elevation as the basis for insurance rating purposes to a structure-specific flood frequency determination and associated flood elevations.
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TMAC 2015 Future Conditions Report
Future risk assessment should have
Climate change (Sea Level Rise and Riverine Impacts)
Population change (land use)
Scenario-based (with uncertainty)
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Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) and EO 13690
EO 13690 establishes new construction elevation standard
– Climate-Informed Science Approach
– 100-year (1%-annual-chance) flood elevation plus freeboard of 2 or 3 feet (building criticality)
– 500-year (0.2%-annual-chance) flood elevation
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Coastal Flood Modeling - Components
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Coastal Flood Modeling - Approaches– “Bathtub” Methodology
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Coastal Flood Modeling - Approaches– Model-based Methodology
non-linear effects
non-linear effects
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Open Foundations = Wide Range of Flood Elevations
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Closed Foundations = Limited Usage in Coastal Floodplains
Closed foundations are not recommended in Coastal A Zones and not allowed in Zone V
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46
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How do we break this cycle:
Decide on methods to show flood risk
Make products to show flood risk
Address why products do not meet expectations
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Measuring Historic andProbable Flood LossesCity of Baltimore, MARYLAND
Visualization of the Month:Communicating Future Conditions
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Hurricane Isabel
Comparing Coastal Flood Extents
You are Here!
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Hurricane Isabel
Hurricane Isabel + 3ft
You are Here!
Comparing Coastal Flood Extents
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Hurricane Isabel
Hurricane Isabel + 3ft
Hurricane Isabel + 5ft
You are Here!
Comparing Coastal Flood Extents
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Hurricane Isabel
Hurricane Isabel + 3ft
Hurricane Isabel + 5ft
Hurricane Isabel + 7ft
Comparing Coastal Flood Extents
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![Page 55: Recording.aspx?fileid=LA F3494 01282016070416378 …...Jan 28, 2016 · • The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program –Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070807/5f0560db7e708231d412aa3f/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Effective FIRM
Total Economic Loss –
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in $1000
$0 - $45,000
$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000
$540,000 - $4,100,000
![Page 56: Recording.aspx?fileid=LA F3494 01282016070416378 …...Jan 28, 2016 · • The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program –Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070807/5f0560db7e708231d412aa3f/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Isabel
Total Economic Loss –
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in $1000
$0 - $45,000
$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000
$540,000 - $4,100,000
![Page 57: Recording.aspx?fileid=LA F3494 01282016070416378 …...Jan 28, 2016 · • The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program –Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070807/5f0560db7e708231d412aa3f/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Isabel + 3ft
Total Economic Loss –
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in $1000
$0 - $45,000
$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000
$540,000 - $4,100,000
![Page 58: Recording.aspx?fileid=LA F3494 01282016070416378 …...Jan 28, 2016 · • The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program –Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070807/5f0560db7e708231d412aa3f/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Isabel + 5ft
Total Economic Loss –
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in $1000
$0 - $45,000
$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000
$540,000 - $4,100,000
![Page 59: Recording.aspx?fileid=LA F3494 01282016070416378 …...Jan 28, 2016 · • The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program –Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070807/5f0560db7e708231d412aa3f/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Isabel + 7ft
Total Economic Loss –
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in $1000
$0 - $45,000
$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000
$540,000 - $4,100,000
![Page 60: Recording.aspx?fileid=LA F3494 01282016070416378 …...Jan 28, 2016 · • The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program –Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070807/5f0560db7e708231d412aa3f/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
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Comparison of Coastal Losses –TS Sandy Forecast
Total Economic Loss –
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in $1000
$0 - $45,000
$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000
$540,000 - $4,100,000
![Page 61: Recording.aspx?fileid=LA F3494 01282016070416378 …...Jan 28, 2016 · • The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program –Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070807/5f0560db7e708231d412aa3f/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Coastal Flood Results• Comparison of
Coastal Flood Losses• Structural (Count)• Shelter Needs (Individuals)• Debris Generation (trucks)• Essential Facilities
with loss of use (Count)
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Coastal Flood Results• Comparison of
Flood Losses from Coastal events• Total Economic Loss
o Direct - Building Losso Indirect - Business Interruption
Hurricane Isabel
Hurricane Isabel + 3ft
Hurricane Isabel + 5ft
Hurricane Isabel + 7ft
Sandy Forecast
![Page 63: Recording.aspx?fileid=LA F3494 01282016070416378 …...Jan 28, 2016 · • The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program –Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070807/5f0560db7e708231d412aa3f/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
• Hurricane Isabel – 7.5 Ft of Storm surge
• TS Sandy – 10-12 Ft of Storm surge forecasted for MD in the Upper Chesapeake
• Worse case scenario• Destruction of the Baltimore
Harbor industry &maritime Industry,Core entertainment/shopping district, & Historic residential neighborhoods
TS Sandy Comparison to Hurricane Isabel
• 5X the number of structures destroyed
• $10.5 Bill more in total economic loss
Baltimore dodged a bullet.......This time
Hurricane Isabel
TS Sandy
Inundation Overlap
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![Page 64: Recording.aspx?fileid=LA F3494 01282016070416378 …...Jan 28, 2016 · • The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program –Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070807/5f0560db7e708231d412aa3f/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Thursday February 25, 2016 at 10:00 AM EST
Use the same number and conference code for each call:Call 1-302-202-1110 and enter this conference code # 697620
**Request volunteer for next month’s presentation• HAZUS / Risk Assessment project• HAZUS “How to” presentation
Meeting notes and an updated presentation with audio will be sent out after this call
Adjourn
Next Call
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