Future directions in adaptation research?Supporting the implementation of EU and Irish climate policy

Stefan Gray, EPA Research Fellow – Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

EU & Irish adaptation policy: Five research challenges

Two key policy instruments: EU Adaptation Strategy (EU AS) National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (NCCAF)

…pose five key challenges

1. Uncertainty

2. Risks and costs

3. Coordination

4. Indicators & metrics

5. Transformation

Impacts

Climate Change

Responses

Mitigation Adaptation

Substantial uncertainties attend climate adaptation Particularly the case at local scales Adaptation is held to be a principally local issue NCCAF: Local authority County Development plans

must be reviewed to include adaptation by mid-2014

How can the uncertainties of climate impact projections be dealt with in local level planning? ‘Policy first’ adaptation assessment? Low-regret, win-win adaptation options? Adaptive (experimental) management?

Uncertainty

(Ranger et al 2010)

Risks and costs

Calculating the cost implications of climate impacts is an extremely complex and difficult task Adaptation cost 2050 = US$75 – 100b/yr? SLR impact cost 2100 = US$300 – 90b/yr? EU AS: “climate-proof” CAP, CFP, infrastr. standards NCCAF: Sectoral adaptation plans to be published by

mid-2014, with a “clear understanding of the consequences of climate change for each sector”

How can climate impact cost and adaptation benefit be evaluated in a pragmatic and tractable way? EEA (2013): ROA? RDM? RBR? Untested in Ireland

Coordination

Adaptive measures adopted by one sector, region or country may have maladaptive consequences Management is traditionally carried out in silos Water management vs. Energy vs. Transport? NCCAF: 6 Govt. Departments & 1 State Agency to

prepare 12 sectoral adaptation strategies by mid-2014

How can coordination across sectors, scales and borders be facilitated? EU AS: National adaptation strategies; explicitly

particiaptory adaptation; targeted LIFE funding Cross-sectoral conceptual modelling? Communities of practice; oversight via a dedicated

(independent) body?

Indicators and metrics

Beyond the avoidance of maladaptation, how to judge what constitutes ‘successful’ adaptation is as yet unclear EU AS: Commission to develop an “adaptation

preparedness scoreboard” NCCAF: Sectoral adaptation plans to be revised and

updated every five years

How can meaningful indicators and metrics of adaptation efficacy be deployed? Should indicators be process or outcome based?

Qualitative or quantitative? Can existing performance metrics be employed in

adaptation, or must new metrics be developed in the future?

Transformation Adaptation is an iterative process, the limits of which are

increasingly coming to be acknowledged (Dow et al 2013) The literature therefore calls for adaptation

management cycles to evolve toward double and triple loop learning (Moser & Ekstrom 2010)

NCCAF: Sectoral adaptation plans to be revised and updated every five years; Local Authority County Development plans adopted every six years

What institutional or organisational innovations will be required to facilitate transformation? How can adaptation cycles build knowledge and

establish momentum? Is anticipatory transformation feasible?

Aims & Objectives

System Identity

Actions

Outcomes

1

2

3

Conclusion

Uncertainty

Risks and costs

Coordination

Indicators and metrics

Transformation

These research challenges are interdependent, and foundational to the success of European and Irish adaptation

They provide real opportunities to influence future research and policy

Timelines are short, adaptation is already underway

Thanks for your time and attention!

Contact details: Stefan Grays.gray@ucc.ie