Виды и точность геомагнитных прогнозов geomagnetic forecasts...
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Виды и точность геомагнитных прогнозов Geomagnetic forecasts А.А.Петрукович ИКИ РАН A.A. Petrukovich Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences. Earth as space ecosystem. Life depends on Space: Earth climate driven by constant solar energy. Earth as space ecosystem. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Geomagnetic forecasts
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A.A. Petrukovich Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
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Earth as space ecosystemLife depends on Space:Earth climate driven by constant solar energy
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Life depends on Space:Earth climate driven by constant solar energySolar system climate: solar activity, solar evolution, orbit interactionsEarth as space ecosystem
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Galaxy climate: local interstellar medium and galactic cosmic rays Life depends on Space:Earth climate driven by constant solar energySolar system climate: solar activity, solar evolution, orbit interactionsEarth as space ecosystem
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: . 8 1-12 ( ) 1-3
: : ~0.1%
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1. :, ,
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2. :
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: 30 000 50 000
: : ~10 ~100 : ~ 100 ~1000
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0-23-45-67-9, 0 - 9 12-3239-94111-400
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Dst AL/AU/AE
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-: = 8-9 : =5-6
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10
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: ,
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27, 45, 55 : 1 2
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27 3-4
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27- 2003 27
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3-7 , STEREO ,
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1 - 3 1.5 4 :
50%
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1-3 = 6
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1-7
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1-3 , Belov et al 2005
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ACE - available in INTERNET
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1 hour forecast >90% reliabilitySolar light: 300 000 km/s: 8 min 3-day forecast 50% reliabilitySolar stormSolar wind: 400-1000 km/s: 1.5-3 days Geomagnetic stormLibration point 1.5 mln km150 mln km- ( ) ,
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o Dungeyp VBz
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www.spaceweather .ru
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www.spaceweather .ru
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( ) () 1-2
() ,
()
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* -
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