) in relation to thermal time and potential … · 2020. 7. 20. · introduction and background...

GROWTH AND YIELD OF NAVY BEAN (Phaseolus vulgaris) IN RELATION TO THERMAL TIME

AND POTENTIAL CULTIVATION IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Dr. Benedict Bonaventure Aligebam

1

Outline of Presentation

• Introduction and background• Approach and objectives• Methodology• Data collected• Agronomy Results (no necessary) • Modelling of temperature data• Results• Conclusion

3

Introduction and Background

• Navy bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) are pea sized white bean.

• In the United States, these very common beans are known by a variety of alternate names, including haricot beans, Boston beans, pea beans and Yankee beans.

• These are closely related to larger white beans such as Great Northern and cannelloni beans.

4

Contd.

• It was first grown as a commercial crop in North America where enormous work has been done from the Agriculture and Agric-Food Canada (AAFC) Research Centre at lethbridge Alberta, Canada.

• Current areas of production are USA, Canada and Australia

5

Contd.

• Around 50,000 tonnes of navy bean are imported each year into the United Kingdom from the Michigan area of the USA and more than one million cans are sold in Britain each day as “baked beans” (Scarisbrick and Wilkes 1973).

• Current imports of Phaseolus vulgaris are 120,000 tonnes (DEFRA 2010) most of these are likely to be navy bean.

6

Contd.

• Scarisbrick and Wilkes (1973) stated that trials in the 1950’s within the UK showed the growing season of navy bean to be too short to allow ripening, and that sowing date is constrained by frost.

• And went further to state that Trials with North American cultivars during the 1970s’ created considerable interest in the possibility of cultivating the crop in the UK.

7

• Work begun in 1970 by the Pea Growing Research Organization indicated two cultivars, Seafarer and Revenge, can be grown successfully in Britain.

• Scarisbrick and Wilkes (1973) then undertook an investigation into suitable times to drill these cultivars.

• Results showed that, it seems unwise to sow this crop before the middle of May and sowings made after the end of May are likely to result in losses of potential yield.

• This occurred due to a cold summer in 1972 which resulted in smaller bean seed. 8

Contd.

• Andrews et al. (1983) reported for four successive years mean yields of air dry seed varying between 222 and 398 g m-2 with an annual mean harvest date between 20th September and 9th October.

• Hardwick (1988) in his review of recent research on navy bean in the UK made mention of the attempts made since the 1960’s for the crop to be introduced into the UK.

9

Contd.

• He stated how favoured areas of the UK with small plot trials could expect yields of 300 g seed m-2 with optimum plant spacing of between 20 and 30 plants m-2.

• He also reported that 90,000 tonnes of navy beans per year are imported into the UK and four and half million cans of baked beans consumed daily in the UK.

10

Contd.

• The requirements of adequate thermal time units (Ontario Heat Units) for the growth of the crop in the UK was investigated by Dodd (1991)

• He concluded with analysis of a 29 year period showing a 14 day possible planting period on the south coast of England.

11

Contd.• He produced from 5 km grid point temperature

records with the probability of achieving 2000 Ontario Heat Units, regarded as the minimum for navy bean cultivation.

• This showed that less than 2% of England and Wales had more than 60% chance of receiving 2000 Ontario Heat Units under the then climatic condition (1961 – 80).

• However, this area increased to 70% of England and Wales assuming a mean rise in temperature of 1.5 °C.

12

Contd.

• Jenkins et al. (2008) in their first report of the UKCP09 stated warming of global climate system with average temperatures having risen by nearly 0.8 °C since the 19th century and rising at about 0.2 °C per decade over the past 25 years.

• The incidence of days of air frost in England and Wales has been reduced by 16 to 24 days per year between 1960 and 2006.

13

Contd.

• The major summaries of the change in the average temperatures were:

An annual warming by the 2080 of between 1 °C and 5 °C depending on the region and scenario.

Greater summer warming in the Southeast than the Northeast.

Distinct greater warming in summer and autumn than in winter and spring.

14

Contd.

• It is in the light of the above that, the research question was posed as:

15

Approach

• To answer the research question posed above, experiments were carried out with three cultivars of navy bean:

• BWP418 from Holland

• NA00076 and NA99070 from USA.

16

Contd.

• Field experiments with different sowing dates and irrigation regimes were conducted to examine the responses of these cultivars to temperature and soil water availability.

• In those experiments the dry matter yield could be explained by the conceptual approach of the model:

17

Contd.

• Dry Matter Yield = S * Fi * RUE * HI

Where:

S - accumulated incident radiation

Fi - fractional light intercepted

RUE - radiation use efficiency

HI - harvest index

18

Contd.

Radiation Use Efficiency (RUE gMJ-1) was calculated as change in dry weight per unit (g m-2) divided by absorbed accumulative PAR (MJ m-2) over the same period.

19

Contd.

• Light interception and radiation use efficiency A Delta –T Devices Sunfleck Ceptometer was used

to measure light interception. The fraction of PAR transmitted (PAR at ground

level divided by PAR above plants) was calculated for each reading and the mean of these ten values calculated (t).

The fraction of PAR intercepted was calculated as 1-t.

20

Contd.

Daily values of (1-t) were linearly interpolated between measurements.

Accumulated absorbed PAR was calculated for each plot. On each day the absorbed PAR for each plot was assumed to be:

= 0.9 x (1-t) x 0.5SWhere:

t = fraction transmittedS = daily solar radiation (MJ m-2 d-1)

21

Contd.

It was assumed that 50 % of incoming solar radiation (S = daily solar radiation (MJ m-2 d-1)) was PAR (Szeicz, 1974).

The factor 0.9 was to change intercepted PAR to absorbed PAR on the basis that 0.1 of incoming PAR is reflected (Gallagher and Biscoe, 1978).

22

Objectives

The first set of objectives is to quantify and compare the effects of temperature and soil moisture on the growth, development and yield of the three cultivars in terms of:

• Germination and emergence in relation to thermal time.

23

Contd.

• Dry matter production in terms of accumulated incident radiation, interception of PAR and radiation use efficiency.

• The partitioning of dry matter to pods.

• The thermal time requirements for germination, flowering and harvesting.

24

Contd.

• The second set is:

• Use the thermal requirements to examine the feasibility of successful growing crops of navy bean at Reading and whether this has changed since 1960.

• To extend this analysis to further areas surrounding Reading.

25

Management and Analysis

• All data were entered into Excel (Microsoft 2007) and then transferred to SAS (2002) or GENSTAT (2007) for analysis.

Analysis of emergence data

Generalised logistic curves were fitted to the number of seeds emerged (GERM) against DAS (X) using nonlinear regression in GENSTAT.

26

Analysis of thermal time for emergence

• The reciprocal of the time to each stage (5%, 50% and 95%) was regressed on the mean temperature during the time from sowing to that stage.

Analysis of light interception

• Repeated measurements analyses of variance in SAS (SAS 9.3.1) were used.

27

Weather Conditions

Rainfall

Temperature

Thermal time

28

Mean rainfall May June July August September October

2007 100.8 90.6 115.5 40.5 40.1 35.1

2008 67.8 49.5 76.6 69.4 43.8 52.7

1971 - 2000 46.6 50.1 41.2 52.5 57.5 64.5

Rainy days May June July August September October

2007 19 16 21 10 8 7

2008 17 8 13 22 15 16

1971 - 2000 13 11 10 11 11 13

29

Temperature May June July August September October

Max 2007 17.2 20.3 20.2 21.0 18.8 15.0

Max 2008 19.2 19.6 21.5 20.4 17.9 14.6

Max 1971 - 2000 16.5 19.3 22.0 21.8 18.5 14.5

Min 2007 8.9 12.0 12.4 11.6 10.2 7.4

Min 2008 9.4 10.6 12.5 13.3 9.6 6.2

Min 1971 – 2000 7.3 10.1 12.4 12.1 10.0 7.1

Mean 2007 13.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 14.5 11.2

Mean 2008 14.3 15.1 17 16.9 13.8 10.4

Mean 1971 - 2000 11.9 14.7 17.2 17.0 14.2 10.8

30

Accumulated mean temperature (Thermal time with base temperature 10) from 10th May in 2007 and 2008.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Th

erm

al

tim

e (°

C)

Date

Themal time 2007/2008

TT102007 TT102008

31

Results2007 Experiment 1

EmergenceDry matter production

Light interception and Radiation use efficiency

Final harvest

32

Emergence

33

Final number of plants Time to 80% Emergence

S1 S3 S1 S3

REP 1 W1 27.2 27 14.2 13.5

W2 26.8 29.9 13.7 12.9

W3 30.1 31.1 13.8 13.5

REP 2 W1 39.5 29.3 15 13.2

W2 26.6 38 14.4 13.3

W3 28.3 31.6 14.4 15

REP 3 W1 19.8 30 14.4 13.8

W2 29.7 33.8 14.9 13.4

W3 24.1 34 14.4 13.5

means 28.0 31.6 14.4 13.6

Coefficient of variation0.19 0.10 0.03 0.04

Between reps ( 2, d.f 17) F = 1.40 P = 0.28 F = 2.86 P = 0.09

Between sowings (1, d.f 17) F = 3.20 P = 0.09F = 12.89 P = 0.003 34

S1 S3

A -0.3

0.335

0.02

0.176

C 28.2

0.482

32.6

0.481

B 1.17

0.109

1.2

0.057

M 12.8

0.0909

11.3

0.0465

r2 0.994 0.999

Final number of plants 28.0 32.6

Relative growth rate 0.59 0.60

Time to 5% 10.20 8.70

Time to 50% 12.75 11.28

Time to 95% 15.31 13.84

Duration 5% to 95% 5.11 5.00

Fitted parameters with standard errors and derived variables for the logistic curves

fitted to emergence count. Standard errors are shown in bold.

Logistic curves were fitted to these mean data. The main use of these parameter will be to compare emergence between experiment during the two years.

35

Dry matter production

Dry matter production will be considered as total dry matter per plant and total dry

matter per square metre.

36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

S1 S3

To

tal

dry

wei

gh

t (g

)

Sowing date

Total Dry Weight

12-Jul

14-Aug

17-Sep

Mean values of total dry weight (g) for sowing dates S1 (at 65, 98 and 132 DAS) and S3 (at 52, 85 and 119 DAS). Error bars are ± s.e. of mean.

37

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

S1 S3

To

tal

dry

wei

gh

t (g

m-2

)

Sowing date

Total dry weight (g m-2)

12-Jul

14-Aug

17-Sep

Mean values of total dry weight (g m-2) for sowing dates S1 (at 65,

98 and 132 DAS) and S3 (at 52, 85 and 119 DAS). Error bars are ±s.e. of mean.

38

Light interception

39

Fractional light interception of S1 and S3

Data were analysed using repeated measurements analyses of variance

in SAS (SAS 9.3.1), as the measurements on each plot are

repeated in time. 40

S1 S3

Disease < 0.0001 0.201

Time < 0.0001 0.0027

Time * Disease < 0.0001 0.1484

Summary of P values for repeated measures (in time), analyses of variance for the fraction of light intercepted.

Separate analyses were conducted for S1 and S3.

This shows that the late sowing S3 was not so seriously impacted by the diseases.

41

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Fra

ctio

na

l li

gh

t in

terc

epti

on

Days after sowing

S1

DF

D

LSD = 0.015

The effects of disease on fractional light interception against days after sowing for S1, for disease (D) and disease free (DF) plots.

42

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Fra

ctio

na

l li

gh

t in

terc

epti

on

Days after sowing

S3

DF

D

LSD = 0.032

The effects of disease on fractional light interception against days after sowing for S3, for disease (D) and disease free (DF) plots.

43

Radiation Use Efficiency(RUE)

Cumulative absorbed PAR was calculated from the fraction

intercepted PAR and calculated daily incident solar radiation

44

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115

Cu

mu

lati

ve

PA

R (

MJ

m-2

)

Days after sowing

S1

DF

D

Cumulative PAR against DAS for disease (D) and disease free (DF) plots of sowing S1 cultivar BWP418.

45

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 102

Cu

mu

lati

ve

PA

R (

MJ

m-2

)

Days after sowing

S3

DF

D

Cumulative PAR against DAS for disease (D) and disease free (DF) plots of sowing S3 cultivar BWP418.

46

Sowing RUE gMJ-1

(64 to 97 DAS S1)

(51 to 84 DAS S3)

Crop growth rate gm-2d-1

(7 to 64 DAS S1)

(7 to 51 DAS S3)

Crop growth rate gm-2d-1

(64 to 97 DAS S1)

(51 to 84 DAS S3)

DF D DF D DF D

S1 2.18 0.12 5.1 4.0 17.3 0.8

S3 1.37 1.08 5.9 5.0 11.3 0.7

Radiation use efficiency and crop growth rates for disease free (DF) and disease (D) plots.

47

FINAL HARVEST

The final harvest was conducted within the period of 13th September

to 10th October 2007. Harvesting started with the third replicate in

experiment 148

Variable S1 S3 LSD P values

Sow Block

Number of plants m-2 29.8 38.0 3.6 0.0002 0.73

Number of pods m-2 355.5 286.3 149.0 0.33 0.86

Dry weight pods (g m-2) 237.4 185.9 118.9 0.37 0.97

Pods dry weight per plant (g) 8.0 5.0 3.9 0.11 0.93

Number of pods per plant 12.1 7.6 5.2 0.08 0.76

Harvest index 0.30 0.21 0.07 0.02 0.003

Mean values per metre square for sowing S1 and S3 of number of plants and pods, dry weight pods, pods per plant and dry weight pods per plants. P values for difference between sowing date and block are in bold.

49

Variables S1 S3 LSD P values

Sow Block


Number of pods m-2 414 339 81.9 0.10 0.002

Dry weight pods (g) 283 244 89.6 0.41 0.03

Dry weight pod per plant (g) 9.5 6.6 2.1 0.02 0.003

Number of pods per plant 14.0 9.1 1.8 0.001 0.0001

Individual seed dry weight (g) 0.177 0.175 0.016 0.73 0.29

Seed per pod 3.1 3.4 0.6 0.26 0.73

Harvest index 0.26 0.20 0.08 0.09 0.02

Mean values per metre square for sowing S1 and S3 of number of plants, pods dry weight pods, pods per plant, dry weight pods per plants, individual seed dry weight and seeds per pod. P values for differences between sowing dates and block are in bold.

The analysis is based on the twelve disease free plots.

50

Conclusion

Unfortunately, the water treatments could not be applied due to the wet nature of the season.

Importantly too, the experiment was also badly affected by Fusarium Wilt.

Therefore, this conclusion will concentrate on effects of sowing date and the spread and effects of the disease.

51

Contd.

Sowing S1 (28.0) had a slightly lower mean final plant number than sowing S3 (31.6).

This was only slightly significant between the sowing dates (P = 0.09).

Time to 80% emergence both shown a high significant value (P = 0.003) between S1 and S3 with mean values of 14.4 and 13.6 days.

Though statistically significant the difference was only 0.8 days

52

Contd.

The final plant number agreed well with means of the last two values.

For S1 a few plants presumably died after emergence and this is attributed to the short dry spell during the time of sowing.

It appears that counting of emergence for S3 was stopped too soon, as at final harvest the mean plant number was 38.0 plants m-2

compared to 32.6 plants m-2 at emergence.

53

Contd.

The corresponding figures S1 were 28.0 and 29.8 plants m-2.

Sowing S1 was greater by 1.5 days in time to 5%, 50%, and 95% than S3; however duration from 5% to 95% was only 1 day different.

Hence, germination to 5% was slower in S1 but subsequently at the same rate.

54

Contd.

In comparing the effects of sowing S1 and S3 light interception in the diseased and non-diseased plots.

Sowing S1 exhibited a highly significant effects (P ≤ 0.0001) for disease, time and time with disease whereas sowing S3 showed significance with only time (P ≤ 0.0027).

This confirms that the late sowing S3 was not so seriously impacted by the disease.

55

Contd.

For S1, light interception was reduced substantially by disease from about 70 DAS, by 110 DAS fractional light interception was 0.4 compared to 0.95.

Reduction of light interception by plant disease is often observed, for example (Madeira and Clark 1994) reported out that light intercepted was reduced in faba bean.

56

Contd.

Cumulative absorbed PAR for the disease free plots for sowing S1 and S3 was 343 MJ m-2 and 359 MJ m-2 over the same period 13th July to 29th

August (S1 65 to 112 DAS) and (S3 52 to 99 DAS) respectively.

The RUE for sowing S1 (1.63 g MJ-1) was greater than sowing S3 (1.30 g MJ-1).

The growth rate for sowing S1 (13.6 gm-2d-1) was higher compared to sowing S3 (10.8 gm-2d-1).

57

Contd.

It was found out that the early part of the season growth rates were smaller for sowing S1 (4.9 gm-

2d-1) 7 to 64 DAS and S3 (5.9 gm-2d-1) 7 to 51 DAS.

These were attributed to the very cool wet nature at the start of the season from 15th to 29th May 2007.

Despite these differences, the crop picked up with reasonable growth rates values of 13.6 gm-

2d-1 for S1 (64 to 97 DAS) and 10.8 gm-2d-1 (51 to 84 DAS) for S3.

58

Contd.

Effects of disease reduced RUE’s substantially in sowing S1 (0.12 g MJ-1) and S3 (1.08 g MJ-1) compared with undiseased RUE’s of sowing S1 (1.63 g MJ-1) and S3 (1.30 g MJ-1).

Madeira and Clark (1994) reported RUE’s were 1.45 g MJ-1 in control plants to 1.19 g MJ-1 in diseased plants.

59

contd.

The Fusarium Wilt disease disrupted and had severe effects on growth and yield.

Nevertheless, two highest undiseased plots gave mean yields of 351 and 448 g m-2.

The undiseased plots gave mean pod yields of 283 g m-2 (S1) and 244 g m-2 (S3).

These are similar to the range of pod yields reported for the second (174 to 241g m-2) and third (140 to 188 g m-2) sowing dates recorded by Scarisbrick and Wilkes (1973).

60

Results 2007 Experiment 2



Final harvest

61

Emergence

62

BWP418 NA00076 NA99070

REP 1 51.2 35.5 36.7

REP 2 49.9 34.7 37.1

REP 3 50.7 27.2 38.4

Mean 50.6 32.5 37.4

Coefficient of variation 0.01 0.14 0.02

Between reps ( 2, 4 df ) F = 0.52 P = 0.63

Between cultivars (2, 4 df) F = 29.9 P = 0.004

Final number of plants, experiment 2, 2007

63

BWP418 NA00076 NA99070

REP 1 14.8 15 14.2

REP 2 10.4 15.8 16.6

REP 3 15.8 13.2 16.6

Mean 13.7 14.7 15.8

Coefficient of variation 0.21 0.09 0.09

Between reps ( 2, 4 df ) F = 0.12 P = 0.89

Between cultivars (2, 4 df ) F = 0.61 P = 0.59

80 % time to emergence, experiment 2, 2007.

64

BWP418 NA00076 NA99070

A -1.91 -1.36 -1.27

C 49.6 30.5 35.2

B 0.63

M 9.09

r2 0.980

Final plant number 47.7 29.1 33.9

Relative growth rate 0.3335 0.2535 0.3385

Time to 5% 7.225 7.245 7.145

Time to 50% 9.78 9.8 9.7

Time to 95% 12.355 12.355 12.255

Duration 5% to 95% 5.13 5.11 5.11

Fitted parameters and derived variables for the logistic curves fitted to emergence count experiment 2, 2007.

65


Dry matter production will be considered as total dry matter per

plant and total dry matter per metre squared.

66

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

BWP 418 NA00076 NA99070

To

tal

dry

wei

gh

t (g

)

Cultivars

Total dry weight

12-Jul

30-Aug

17-Sep

Total dry weights (g) per plant of the three cultivars at the three harvests for S2 (58, 107 and 125 DAS). Error bars are ± s.e. of mean.

67

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

BWP 418 NA00076 NA99070

To

tal

dry

wei

gh

t (g

m-2

)

Cultivars

Total dry weight (g m-2)

12-Jul

30-Aug

17-Sep

Total dry weights (g m-2) of the three cultivars at the three harvests for S2 (58, 107 and 125 DAS). Error bars are ± s.e. of mean.

68

Light interception

69

Fractional light interception of the three cultivars.


in SAS (SAS 9.3.1).

70

S2

Rep 0.37

Cultivar 0.03

Time < 0.0001

Time*rep 0.04

Time*cultivar 0.001

Summary of P values for repeated measures (in time), analyses of variance for the fraction of light intercepted.

This shows that there was significant effect of cultivar (P = 0.03), time, time*cultivar ((P ≤ 0.0001) and time*rep (P = 0.04).

71

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

Fra

ctio

na

l li

gh

t in

terc

epti

on

Day after sowing

S2

BWP418

NA00076

NA99070

LSD = 0.0029

Sowing S2 fractional light interception against day after sowing for the three cultivars.

72


Cumulative absorbed PAR was calculated from the fraction

intercepted for each cultivar and the calculated daily incident solar

radiation73

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

Cu

mm

ula

tiv

e P

AR

(M

Jm

-2)

Days after sowing

S2

BWP418

NA00076

NA99070

Cumulative PAR against days after sowing for the three cultivars BWP418, NA00076 and NA99070 for sowing S2.

74

RUE (gMJ-1)

Cultivar 57DAS – 124DAS Sowing – 57DAS 57DAS – 106DAS 106DAS – 124DAS

BWP418 1.58 - 0.34 6.74

NA00076 1.26 - 1.28 1.19

NA99070 1.44 - 1.36 1.74

Growth Rate (gm-2d-1)

BWP418 10.80 14.71 2.60 33.12

NA00076 8.84 9.61 9.79 6.26

NA99070 9.86 11.64 10.29 8.72

Cultivar means of radiation use efficiency (57 to 124, 57 to 106 and 106 to 124 DAS) and crop growth rate from (57 to 124, sowing to 57, 57 to 106 and 106 to 124 DAS) for sowing S2.

75

Final Harvest

The final harvest was conducted on the 26th September 2007, 134 DAS.

76

Variables BWP418 NA00076 NA99070 LSD P values


Number of pods m-2 894 743 854 283 0.40

Dry weight pods (g m-2) 597 670 630 196 0.60

Dry weight pod plant-1 (g) 12.5 17.7 15.2 6.9 0.23

Number of pods plant-1 18.7 19.7 20.5 9.9 0.90

Seed weight (g m-2) 436 529 473 146.9 0.31

Harvest index 0.34 0.45 0.42 0.44 0.79

Individual seed dry weight (g) 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.01 0.02

Seeds per pod 3.5 5.1 3.4 0.63 0.003

Mean values per metre square for sowing S2 of number of plants and pods, dry weight pods, weight of seed and dry weight pods per plant, number of pods per plant, harvest index, individual seed dry weight and seeds per pod of cultivars BWP418, NA00076 and NA99070. LSD’s and P values for differences between cultivars. Effects significant at P≤ 0.05 are shown in bold.

77

Conclusion

Final number of plants estimated by the logistic curves was slightly lower.

Emergence showed that BWP418 had a higher final number of plants (50.6 plants m-2) compared to NA00076 and NA99070 (32.5 and 37.4 plants m-2).

Partly because the occurrence of temperature between the base temperatures (10 °C) slowed emergence and the curves did not fit well.

78

Contd.

Both methods showed there was no difference in the timing of emergence with a mean time to 80% emergence of 14.7 days.

The fraction of PAR intercepted showed significant effects between cultivars, time, time and cultivars (P < 0.05) differences were relatively small.

The pod yields did not differ significantly between cultivars and ranged from 597 to 670 g m-2.

79

Contd.

Seed yields were not measured in this experiment, but using an approximate seed to pod ratio of 0.73 the above correspond to seed yields of 436 to 529 g m-2.

Highest values include 386 – 538 g m-2

(Scarisbrick and Carr, 1975) and 398 g m-2

(Froussios, 1970).

80

Results2008 Experiment 1



Final harvest

81

Introduction

• Experiment 1, 2008 was designed to investigate and compare the effect of sowing date and water treatments on the growth, development and yield of the three cultivars.

• The experimental design was a completely randomised block with three replicates.

82

Contd.

• The sowing dates were S1 (10th May 2008), S2 (20th May 2008) and S3 (30th May 2008) with three water treatments rainfed (R), watering continuously (Wcont) and watering at flowering (Wf)).

• Sowing S1 and S2 had all three cultivars but sowing S3 had only BWP418.

83

Contd.

• A mean of two lines per plot per replicate were calculated for the different cultivars.

• A final mean across the treatments for each cultivar were taken for the different sowing dates for the logistic curves.

• The final number of plants and 80% time to emergence were calculated from the mean of the two lines per plot for each replicate.

84

Emergence

85

Treatment BWP418 NA00076 NA99070 mean

R 34.1 28.1 34.1 32.1

Wcont 38.5 25.3 31.9

Wf 42.9 28.6 34.7 35.4

mean 38.5 27.3 34.4

Between Reps ( 2 , 14 df ) F = 2.72 P = 0.10

Between Cultivars ( 2 , 14 df ) F = 14.26 P = 0.0004

LSD For comparison with NA99070 = 5.14

LSD For others = 4.60

Between Treatments ( 2 , 14 df ) F = 1.45 P = 0.27

S1 Final number of plants, experiment 1, 2008.

86


R 12.5 14.8 14.8 14.0

Wcont 12.3 18.4 15.4

Wf 13.9 16.8 13.6 14.8

mean 12.9 16.7 14.2


Between Cultivars ( 2 , 14 df ) F = 7.99 P = 0.005




S1 80% time to emergences, experiment 1, 2008.

87


R 44.5 38.8 40.7 41.3

Wcont 46.5 37.7 42.1

Wf 47.0 36.3 40.2 41.2

mean 46.0 37.6 40.4


Between Cultivars ( 2 , 14 df ) F = 44.13 P < 0.0001

`LSD For comparison with NA99070 = 1.94



S2 Final number of plants, experiment 1, 2008.

88


R 15.0 13.5 13.3 13.9

Wcont 15.8 14.0 14.9

Wf 16.4 13.6 12.9 14.3

mean 15.7 13.7 13.1

Between Reps ( 2 , 14 df ) F = 8.54 P < 0.004



Between Cultivars ( 2 , 14 df ) F = 45.89 P < 0.0001


S2 80% time to emergences, experiment 1, 2008.

89

BWP418

Treatment Final plant number 80% time to emergence

R 51.4 8.4

Wcont 56.6 8.0

Wf 49.5 8.7

mean 52.5 8.4

Between Reps ( 2 , 4 df ) F = 0.60 P = 0.59 ( 2 , 4 df) F = 0.92 P = 0.47

Between Treatment ( 2 , 4 df ) F = 5.64 P = 0.07 ( 2 , 4 df ) F = 8.57 P = 0.04

S3 Final number of plants and 80% time to emergence, experiment 1, 2008.

90

BWP418 NA00076 NA99070

A -1.79 -1.34 -1.55

C 38.6 27.9 35.47

B 0.53 0.37 0.43

M 9.80 12.48 11.43

r2 0.993

Final number of plants 36.8 26.6 33.9


Time to 5% 4.2 4.4 4.4

Time to 50% 9.8 12.5 11.4

Time to 95% 15.5 20.6 18.5

Duration 5% to 95% 11.3 16.2 14.1

Sowing S1 fitted parameters and derived variable for the logistic curves to emergence count.

91

BWP418 NA00076 NA99070

A -0.58 -0.13 -0.07

C 45.3 36.8 39.8

B 0.86 1.34 1.77

M 13.46 12.54 12.18

r2 0.997

Final number of plants 44.7 36.7 39.7


Time to 5% 10.0 10.3 10.5

Time to 50% 13.5 12.5 12.2

Time to 95% 17.0 14.8 13.9

Duration 5% to 95% 7.0 4.5 3.4

Sowing S2 fitted parameters and derived variable for the logistic curves to emergence count.

92

BWP418

A -0.51

C 52.3

B 2.02

M 6.51

r2 0.997

Final number of plants 51.8

Relative growth rate 1.01

Time to 5% 5.0

Time to 50% 6.5

Time to 95% 8.0

Duration 5% to 95% 3.0

Cultivar BWP418 sowing S3 fitted parameters and derived variables for the logistic curve to emergence count.

93


Dry matter production will be considered as total dry matter per

plant and total dry matter per metre squared.

94

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Tota

l dry

we

igh

t (g

)R Wcont Wf S1

LSD4.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Tota

l dry

we

igh

t (g

)

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD 2.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Tota

l dry

we

igh

t (g

)

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD4.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Tota

l dry

we

igh

t (g

)

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD23.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Tota

l dry

we

igh

t (g

)

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD23.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Tota

l dry

we

igh

t (g

)

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD 22.4

(a) (b) (c)

(d) (e) (f)

Total dry weight (g) with LSD between individual treatments (a) 60 days after first sowing, (b) 60 days after second sowing, (c) 60 days after third sowing, (d) 120 days after first sowing, (e) 120 days after second sowing, (f) 120 days after third sowing.

95

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Tota

l dry

we

igh

t(g

m-2

)

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD 149.8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

To

tal

dry

wei

gh

t(g

m-2

)

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD 98.7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

To

tal

dry

wei

gh

t(g

m-2

)

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD 224.7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

To

tal

dry

wei

gh

t(g

m-2

)

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD692.6

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500T

ota

l d

ry w

eig

ht(

g m

-2)

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD 954.9

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

To

tal

dry

wei

gh

t(g

m-2

)

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD1146

(a) (b) (c)

(d) (e) (f)

Total dry weight (g m-2) with LSD between individual treatments (a) 60 days after first sowing, (b) 60 days after second sowing ( c) 60 days after third sowing, (d) 120 days after first sowing , (e) 120 days after second sowing, (f) 120 days after third sowing.

96

Light interception


in SAS (SAS 9.1.3), as the measurements on each plot are

repeated in time. 97

S1 S2 S3

Rep 0.8160 0.2966 0.1481

Cult 0.0037 0.2613

Trt 0.2026 0.2632 0.0098

Cult*Trt 0.7842 0.9884

Time 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

Time*Rep 0.0939 0.1160 0.0793

Time*Cult 0.0001 0.0001

Time*Trt 0.6094 0.0145 0.0014

Time*Cult*Trt 0.9916 0.9796

Summary of P values for repeated measures (in time) analyses of variance for the fraction of light intercepted for sowing S1, S2 and S3.

98


Cumulative absorbed PAR was calculated from the fraction of PAR intercepted for each treatment and

the daily incident solar radiation.

99

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

30 50 70 90 110 130

Cu

mu

lati

ve

PA

R

Day after sowing

S1 R BWP418

Wcont BWP418

Wf BWP418

R NA00076

Wcont NA00076

Wf NA00076

R NA99070

Wf NA99070

Cumulative PAR against days after sowing for the three cultivars and treatments sowing S1.

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

30 50 70 90 110 130

Cu

mu

lati

ve

PA

R

Day after sowing

S2 R BWP418

Wcont BWP418

Wf BWP418

R NA00076

Wcont NA00076

Wf NA00076

Rain NA99070

Wf NA99070

Cumulative PAR against days after sowing for the three cultivars and treatments sowing S2.

101

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Cu

mu

lati

ve

PA

R

Day after sowing

S3

R BWP418

Wcont BWP418

Wf BWP418

Cumulative PAR against days after sowing for the only cultivar BWP418 and the three treatments sowing S3.

102

Crop growth rate (gm-2d-1) (7 to 120 DAS)

R Wcont Wf Mean

S1

BWP418 13.8 20.0 22.5 18.8

NA00076 16.3 18.9 13.9 16.4

NA99070 16.3 14.3 15.3

Mean 15.5 19.5 16.9

S2

BWP418 14.1 14.6 17.7 15.5

NA00076 21.8 16.4 22.3 20.2

NA99070 17.4 17.5 17.5

Mean 17.8 15.5 19.2

S3

BWP418 24.3 23.8 18.6 22.2

Summary of sowing dates, cultivar and treatment with their respective crop growth rates from 7 to 120 DAS.

103

Final Harvest 2008 Experiment 1

The final harvest was conducted on different days for the three sowing dates

S1 S2 and S3 and also for the cultivars.

104

Contd.

• Sowings S1 and S2 BWP418 and NA00076 were harvested on the 23rd September 2008 and 2nd October 2008 respectively.

• NA99070 for both sowings dates was harvested a week later on 30th September 2008 and 9th October 2008 respectively due the late maturity nature of the pods.

• The last sowing date S3 was harvested on the 12th October 2008.

105

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Nu

mb

er

of

po

ds(

m-2

)

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD 165

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Nu

mb

er

of

po

ds(

m-2

)

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD172

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Nu

mb

er

of

po

ds(

m-2

)

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD430

Number of pods (m-2) for sowing S1, S2 and S3. LSD’s between individual treatments.

106

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Dry

we

igh

t p

od

s (g

m-2

)

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD 172

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Dry

we

igh

t p

od

s (g

)

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD196

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Dry

we

igh

t p

od

s (g

)

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD463

Dry weight pods (g m-2) for S1, S2 and S3. LSD’s between individual treatments.

107

Seed weight (g m-2) for sowing S1, S2 and S3. LSD’s between individual treatments.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

See

d w

eig

ht

(g)

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD133

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

See

d w

eig

ht

(g)

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD152

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

See

d w

eig

ht

(g)

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD374

108

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

See

d n

um

be

r

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD771

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

See

d n

um

be

r

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD815

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

See

d n

um

be

r

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD2805

Seed number (m-2) for sowing S1, S2 and S3. LSD’s between individual treatments.

109

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

Sin

gle

se

ed

we

igh

t (g

)

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD0.2

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

Sin

gle

se

ed

we

igh

t (g

)

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD0.00

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

Sin

gle

se

ed

we

igh

t (g

)

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD0.04

Single seed weight for sowing S1, S2 and S3. LSD’s between individual treatments.

110

00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9

1

See

d f

ract

ion

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD0.08

00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9

1

See

d f

ract

ion

R Wcont Wf S2

LSD0.02

00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9

1

See

d f

ract

ion

R Wcont Wf S3

LSD0.07

Seed fraction for sowing S1, S2 and S3. LSD’s between individual treatments.

NB: Seed fraction (seed dry weight/ dry weight pod)

111

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

Ha

rves

t in

dex

R Wcont Wf S1

LSD0.17

-0,1

6E-16

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

Ha

rves

t in

dex

R Wcont Wf

LSD0.17

S2

-0,1

6E-16

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

Ha

rves

t in

dex

R Wcont Wf

LSD0.09

Harvest index for sowing S1, S2 and S3. LSD’s between individual treatments.

112

Conclusion

• BWP418 grew more rapidly than the other cultivars up to 60 DAS due to greater individual plant size as well as slightly higher plant densities.

• Later sowing increased growth rate and canopy development during the first 60 DAS, but not from 60 to 120 DAS.

• BWP418 and NA99070 achieved full light interception rapidly, NA00076 was slightly slower.

113

Contd.

• Values of RUE were relatively high with means of 4.28, 4.40 and 5.98 g MJ-1 absorbed PAR for S1, S2 and S3 respectively.

• There were no consistent effects of water treatments on RUE and crop growth rate.

• There was no effect of sowing date on seed yield.

114

Contd.

• Seed yields were generally slightly higher for NA00076.

• Seed yield of NA00076 and NA99070 were slightly increased by Wf in S1 only, perhaps by ensuring pod set.

• Seed yield of BWP418 showed a positive response to Wcont in the later sowings (S2, S3).

115

Contd.• Seed number showed a similar pattern as

weight of seed, individual seed weight was a cultivar characteristic and not affected by any treatment.

• Seed yield was not related to total dry matter, harvest index decreased with increased total dry weight.

• Total dry weight m-2 was not measured at final harvest because of the large and varying amounts of leaf senescence.

116

Contd.• In summary, all three cultivars gave good yields

with NA00076 tending to be slightly higher yielding.

• NA99070 was later maturing and whilst giving good yields here, it might be difficult to harvest in a prolonged wet autumn.

• Yields were not affected by sowing date, so sowing around 20th May (corresponding to S2) might avoid problems of low temperatures early in the season but still provides enough time for the crop to mature.

• The results suggest that soil moisture can reduce yields if there is shortage of water either at flowering or during pod filling.

117

Thermal time and developmental stages

• Emergence, flowering and harvesting of the two experiments in 2007 and one in 2008.

• Timing of these developmental stages is considered in both calendar time and in thermal time.

118

Contd.

• An analysis of thermal time for the emergence for 2007 and 2008 sowings for the field experiments were based on the logistic curves fitted to emergence counts against DAS for each cultivar.

• The time to 5%, 50% and 95% emergence was calculated from these curves.

119

5% time to

emergence

50% time to

emergence

95% time to

emergence

r2 0.962 0.473 0.437

slope 0.0345 0.0196 0.031

s.e. 0.0031 0.0065 0.011

Intercept -0.3526 -0.1811 -0.3562

s.e. 0.0453 0.0921 0.1538

Tb 10.2 9.2 11.6

s.e. 2.2 (Good) 8.0 10.0

Thermal time above Tb 28.9 51.0 32.7

Regression results for the combination of sowings S1, S2, S3 for 2007 and 2008 emergence counts for 5%, 50% and 95% time to emergence

120

Summary

• The base temperature can be taken as 10 °C.

• Thermal time for 50% emergence was 37 °C d above 10 °C with adequate soil moisture.

• Thermal time from sowing to flowering differed little between cultivars with a mean of 352 °C d.

• Mean thermal time from sowing to harvest was 757 °C d for BWP418, 755 °C d for NA00076 and 767 °C d for NA99070. The overall mean of 760 °C d is recommended.

121

Modelling of temperature data

• First an analysis is carried out using daily temperature data from University of Reading –1968 to 2009.

• The analysis looked at the timing of these events and probability of successful maturity for two sowing dates (1st May and 15th May).

• Changes over the period are examined.

• The analysis was repeated with a 5 km grid of temperature from 1960 to 2006 covering an area of 2500 km2 around Reading.

122

02-mai

07-mai

12-mai

17-mai

22-mai

27-mai

01-juin

06-juin

11-juin

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Da

tes

Year

Emergence dates 1968 to 2009 for the early sowing date

1st May.

6th May (1990) to 7th

June (1984), i.e. between 5 and 38 days from sowing

123

17-mai

22-mai

27-mai

01-juin

06-juin

11-juin

16-juin

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Da

tes

Year

Emergence dates1968 to 2009 for the late sowing date

15th May.

21st May to 11th June, which is an interval of 27 days.

124

Flowering

Considering thermal time for flowering (352 °C d), dates of

flowering was found for the two sowing dates and cumulative

probability graphs for each sowing date.

125

126

y = -0,3617x + 41098

R² = 0,2268

26-juin

01-juil.

06-juil.

11-juil.

16-juil.

21-juil.

26-juil.

31-juil.

05-août

10-août

15-août

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Da

te

Year

Flowering dates sowing from 1st May

1968 - 2009

varied from 2nd

July to 12th August

that is a 41 day

interval

y = -0.2759x + 40931

R² = 0.1599

01-juil.

06-juil.

11-juil.

16-juil.

21-juil.

26-juil.

31-juil.

05-août

10-août

15-août

20-août

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Da

te

Year

Flowering dates late sowing date 15th May.1968 - 2009

5th July to 14th

August, an interval of 43 days

127

Harvesting

The harvesting thermal time (760 0C d) was examined for the two sowing dates

for the period and cumulative graphs drawn.

128

10-août

20-août

30-août

09-sept.

19-sept.

29-sept.

09-oct.

19-oct.

29-oct.

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Da

te

Year

Harvesting dates against year from 1968 to 2009 for the early sowing date 1st of May.

14th August to 24th October ranging from 106 to 177 days from sowing.

129

10-août

20-août

30-août

09-sept.

19-sept.

29-sept.

09-oct.

19-oct.

29-oct.

08-nov.

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Da

te

Year

Harvesting dates against year from 1968 to 2009 for the late sowing date 15th of May.

21st August to 26th

October ranging from 98 to164 days from sowing

130

Sowing 1st May 15th May

30th September 1968 - 1990 1991 - 2009 1968 - 1990 1991 - 2009

20% 644.8 796.1 626.1 762.9

50% 709.9 838.7 692.4 794.2

80% 833.7 912.5 811.7 876.8

Probability ≥ 760 °C d 0.43 0.86 0.39 0.81

31st October 1968 - 1990 1991 - 2009 1968 - 1990 1991 - 2009

20% 706.2 841.6 684.5 811.5

50% 762.9 902.7 756.0 863.2

80% 897.5 992.4 854.7 969.0

Probability ≥ 760 °C d 0.57 0.93 0.49 0.91

Thermal time (°C d) showing cumulative probabilities of 20%, 50% and 80% for both sowings to successful harvest by 30th September and 31st

October for the period 1968 to 1990 and 1991 to 2009.

131

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

03-mars 13-mars 23-mars 02-avr. 12-avr. 22-avr. 02-mai 12-mai 22-mai 01-juin 11-juin

Cu

mu

lati

ve

pro

ba

bil

ity

Date

Cumulative probability of date of last air frost

1968 - 1990

1991 - 2009

Cumulative probabilities for the last date of air frost temperature for the periods 1968 to 1990 and 1991 to 2009.

1968 to 1990 20%= 10th April50% = 26th April 80% = 4th May1991 to 200920%= 26th March 50% = 13th April 80% = 19th April

The overall trend for the period 1991 to 2009 shows that there is a small risk after 1st May of an air frost, hence, it is possible for the crop to be sown. 132

Extension to area around Reading

Results so far suggest a greater probability of reaching 760 °C d and a

successful cultivation.

133

Contd.

• This was based on University of Reading Meteorological data from 1968 – 2009

• However to generalize these results to the area around Reading, Meteorological Office grid data of 5 km squares were used.

• The UKCP09 daily mean temperature time series for 1960 to 2006 (Meteorological Office, 2010).

134

Contd.

• Data from a 5 X 5 km grid squares were derived by regression and interpolation as described by Perry and Hollis (2005).

• A 50 X 50 km area around Reading, giving 100 grid squares were used for the analysis.

135

1960 – 1990 1st May 50% 30th September

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 743 696 671 673 611 621 668 621 621 650

192500 710 652 666 608 561 620 615 700 659 679

187500 676 668 627 539 621 608 643 729 688 710

182500 604 625 637 608 655 638 647 700 733 758

177500 613 603 707 714 704 734 704 734 755 774

172500 638 672 704 733 775 743 722 738 721 721

167500 664 657 694 733 720 682 668 723 717 721

162500 641 637 659 700 687 652 660 669 714 730

157500 616 645 684 696 699 694 709 731 696 698

152500 621 642 676 704 723 721 711 725 689 681

1991 - 2006 1st May 50% 30th September

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 881 845 830 815 754 749 803 744 760 797

192500 857 805 800 761 703 770 756 851 803 828

187500 829 825 779 683 781 785 823 901 837 860

182500 755 774 785 749 815 819 829 872 889 906

177500 762 745 857 848 834 893 878 902 914 923

172500 778 816 841 865 924 892 884 889 869 865

167500 801 793 831 873 871 847 851 876 868 865

162500 780 775 797 844 838 831 835 825 863 877

157500 756 784 824 838 845 846 853 873 836 842

152500 760 775 811 836 849 849 843 864 829 829

Thermal time (°C d) values for the periods 1960 to 1990 and 1991 to 2006 achieved in 50% of years from early sowing date 1st May to

30th September.

137

1960 – 1990 1st May 30th September

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 616 575 547 531 477 496 547 498 501 530

192500 587 525 507 478 438 498 494 579 538 558

187500 555 541 496 415 498 479 511 610 567 586

182500 484 503 513 489 542 503 519 579 610 632

177500 494 482 588 585 574 612 590 617 634 648

172500 515 550 577 604 660 619 601 613 600 598

167500 538 533 569 607 600 554 551 591 595 601

162500 519 517 537 578 567 545 552 548 595 609

157500 496 523 561 573 576 575 586 608 577 585

152500 503 521 554 579 595 593 582 603 575 577


452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 768 723 703 707 652 657 720 657 664 695

192500 738 675 665 640 601 669 664 749 703 743

187500 712 697 652 573 670 680 717 790 733 754

182500 647 659 668 640 706 712 721 761 778 797

177500 658 639 743 740 733 784 766 786 800 812

172500 672 707 733 758 818 783 765 768 756 757

167500 688 685 723 764 760 738 722 748 751 755

162500 659 664 690 735 729 715 712 704 747 765

157500 640 674 713 727 732 730 727 744 726 740

152500 651 668 701 724 736 733 715 730 722 736

Thermal time (°C d) values for the periods 1960 to 1990 and 1991 to 2006 achieved in 90% of years from early sowing date 1st May

to 30th September.

138

1960 - 1990 1st May 31st October 10%

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 654 597 569 569 505 517 575 521 526 561

192500 613 551 540 500 453 519 516 613 568 592

187500 582 569 531 431 519 504 542 648 600 626

182500 514 524 533 506 567 532 527 614 647 674

177500 521 504 617 623 618 656 624 655 675 692

172500 540 578 611 646 715 664 637 656 637 635

167500 563 559 601 648 645 598 581 635 631 635

162500 542 539 565 612 603 583 582 576 626 643

157500 516 548 590 607 612 611 624 648 607 612

152500 526 545 581 613 636 636 623 644 603 600

1991 - 2006 1st May 31st October 10%

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 831 782 760 765 699 699 752 697 705 740

192500 799 729 719 686 640 715 706 806 751 777

187500 770 755 704 608 719 728 770 856 787 813

182500 695 708 719 683 759 765 776 823 842 864

177500 707 684 806 798 789 851 830 854 869 883

172500 722 764 792 819 886 850 829 834 818 819

167500 743 738 781 828 821 795 783 813 814 818

162500 712 714 743 796 787 772 770 759 808 829

157500 689 726 771 787 793 790 787 806 784 801

152500 700 718 757 785 800 796 772 791 780 797

Thermal time (0C d) values for the period 1960 to 1990 and 1991 to 2006 achieved in 90% of years for the early sowing date (1st

May) to late harvest (31st October).

139

1960 - 1990 15th May 31st October 10%

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 631 577 550 550 494 502 553 505 510 540

192500 592 523 523 485 445 503 500 587 546 567

187500 557 551 514 420 502 489 529 617 575 596

182500 493 506 514 485 537 515 521 586 619 642

177500 501 484 585 588 585 619 591 623 643 658

172500 515 548 578 610 673 628 606 622 608 607

167500 537 532 570 613 615 573 563 609 603 609

162500 519 516 540 584 575 557 557 556 602 618

157500 496 525 566 582 588 587 599 621 585 591

152500 503 523 560 592 617 614 599 618 582 582

1991 - 2006 15th May 31st October 10%

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 813 770 751 755 695 687 734 686 705 737

192500 788 726 703 685 640 710 699 798 751 777

187500 765 755 704 608 719 727 769 851 787 813

182500 695 708 719 683 758 765 776 822 842 863

177500 707 684 801 796 788 846 829 853 869 881

172500 722 763 791 817 867 847 828 833 818 819

167500 743 738 780 827 820 794 782 812 813 818

162500 711 714 742 795 787 772 769 758 808 829

157500 688 726 770 786 793 790 786 805 784 800

152500 700 718 757 785 799 795 772 789 780 792

Thermal time (0C d) values for the period 1960 to 1990 and 1991 to 2006 achieved in 90% of years for the late sowing date (15th May)

to late harvest (31st October).

140

Probability of greater than 760 (°C d) in (%) for the periods 1960 to 1990 and 1991 to 2006 for the early sowing date 1st May to

30th September

141

1960 to 1990 1st May 30th September

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 49.0 35.6 30.3 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 15.4 15.9 22.1

192500 38.9 25.5 32.2 15.9 8.7 16.3 15.4 37.0 24.5 29.8

187500 28.4 27.9 18.3 7.2 16.8 14.4 21.6 47.6 32.7 38.9

182500 13.0 16.3 19.2 13.9 24.5 19.7 20.2 37.5 46.6 54.3

177500 13.5 12.0 37.0 37.5 34.1 46.6 38.9 48.1 54.3 59.1

172500 16.8 26.0 34.1 42.8 62.5 47.1 41.3 47.6 42.3 41.3

167500 22.6 22.1 31.3 43.3 41.3 28.4 26.0 42.3 39.9 41.3

162500 18.3 17.3 22.6 33.2 30.3 23.6 25.0 25.0 38.5 43.3

157500 13.0 19.2 29.3 32.7 34.1 33.2 37.0 43.8 32.7 33.7

152500 14.9 18.8 27.9 36.1 42.8 41.8 37.0 42.3 31.3 30.3


452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 91.3 82.2 76.4 86.1 86.1 86.5 86.1 51.0 56.7 69.7

192500 86.1 67.3 65.9 93.3 31.3 58.7 54.8 85.6 72.1 80.3

187500 78.4 75.5 58.7 21.6 62.0 64.9 78.4 93.8 82.7 88.0

182500 51.4 58.2 63.0 48.6 75.0 76.9 80.3 89.9 92.8 94.7

177500 55.3 47.6 86.5 84.6 81.7 92.8 90.9 93.8 95.7 96.6

172500 62.0 76.0 83.7 88.5 95.2 91.8 90.4 91.8 89.4 88.9

167500 71.2 68.3 80.8 89.9 88.5 83.7 82.2 88.5 88.9 89.4

162500 62.0 61.5 69.7 84.6 82.7 79.8 79.3 76.9 88.5 91.8

157500 52.4 65.4 79.3 83.7 85.1 85.1 85.6 89.9 83.2 85.6

152500 54.8 62.0 76.0 83.2 86.1 86.1 82.7 88.0 81.7 83.2

Probability of greater than 760 (°C d) in (%) for the periods 1960 to 1990 and 1991 to 2006 for the late sowing date 15th May to 30th September.

142

1960 to 1990 15th May 30th September

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 40.4 28.4 24.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 12.0 12.0 16.8

192500 31.7 20.2 26.9 12.0 6.7 12.5 12.0 29.3 18.8 22.6

187500 22.6 22.1 14.4 5.8 13.0 11.1 16.8 38.9 26.0 31.3

182500 9.6 13.0 14.9 10.6 18.8 14.9 15.4 29.8 38.0 45.2

177500 10.1 9.1 29.8 29.8 26.9 38.0 30.8 39.4 45.2 50.0

172500 13.0 20.2 26.9 35.1 53.8 38.9 33.2 38.9 34.1 33.7

167500 17.3 16.8 24.5 35.1 33.2 22.1 19.7 34.1 31.7 33.2

162500 13.9 13.5 17.3 26.0 23.1 17.8 18.8 18.8 30.3 34.6

157500 10.1 14.4 22.6 26.0 26.4 26.0 29.3 36.1 25.5 26.0

152500 11.5 14.4 21.6 28.4 34.6 33.7 29.3 34.6 24.5 23.6

1991 to 2006 15th May 30th September

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 86.5 74.5 67.8 81.7 81.7 81.7 81.3 41.8 46.6 60.6

192500 79.3 57.7 55.8 40.4 23.1 49.0 45.2 79.8 63.5 73.1

187500 70.2 66.8 49.0 15.4 51.9 54.8 69.7 90.4 75.5 82.7

182500 40.9 48.1 52.9 38.5 66.3 68.3 71.6 84.6 88.5 91.8

177500 44.7 37.5 80.3 77.9 74.5 88.9 85.6 90.4 92.8 93.8

172500 51.4 67.3 76.0 82.7 92.3 87.5 85.6 87.0 83.7 83.7

167500 61.1 58.7 73.1 84.6 82.7 76.9 74.5 82.2 82.7 83.7

162500 52.4 51.4 60.1 77.4 75.5 71.2 70.7 67.3 82.2 86.5

157500 42.8 54.8 71.2 76.0 77.9 77.9 78.4 83.7 75.0 78.4

152500 44.2 51.4 66.3 75.5 79.3 79.3 75.0 81.3 73.1 75.0

Probability of greater than 760 0C d in (%) for the period 1960 to 1990 and 1991 to 2006 for the early sowing date 1st May to 31st

October.

143

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 65.4 51.4 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 25.0 25.0 33.7

192500 55.3 38.5 44.7 24.5 13.5 26.4 25.0 53.4 47.1 44.2

187500 43.3 42.8 29.8 10.6 26.9 23.6 34.6 65.4 48.1 55.8

182500 20.7 26.9 30.3 22.1 38.0 31.3 32.2 54.3 63.9 71.2

177500 22.1 19.2 53.8 53.8 50.0 63.9 56.3 65.9 71.6 76.0

172500 27.9 39.9 50.5 60.1 78.4 64.9 59.1 65.4 60.1 59.1

167500 35.6 34.1 47.1 61.1 59.1 43.8 41.3 60.1 57.7 59.1

162500 28.8 27.9 35.1 50.0 46.2 37.5 39.4 39.4 55.8 61.1

157500 21.6 30.8 43.8 49.0 50.5 49.5 53.4 61.1 48.6 50.0

152500 24.0 29.8 41.8 52.4 59.6 59.1 52.9 59.6 46.6 46.2

1991 to 2006 1st May 31st October

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 95.2 89.9 86.1 86.5 86.1 86.1 86.1 64.9 69.7 80.3

192500 91.8 80.3 80.3 66.3 47.6 72.6 68.8 91.3 82.2 88.0

187500 87.5 86.1 74.0 37.5 75.5 76.9 86.5 96.6 89.4 92.8

182500 67.8 73.6 76.9 64.4 85.1 86.1 88.0 94.2 95.7 97.1

177500 70.7 63.9 92.3 90.9 88.9 96.2 94.7 96.6 97.6 98.1

172500 76.0 86.1 90.4 92.8 97.1 95.2 95.2 95.7 93.8 93.8

167500 82.7 80.8 88.9 94.2 93.3 90.4 90.4 93.8 94.2 93.8

162500 76.9 76.0 81.7 91.3 89.9 88.5 88.5 86.5 93.8 95.2

157500 69.2 78.8 88.0 90.4 91.8 91.8 91.8 94.7 90.4 91.8

152500 71.2 76.4 86.1 90.4 92.3 92.3 90.4 93.3 89.4 90.4

1960 to 1990 1st May 31st October

Probability of greater than 760 0C d in (%) for the period 1960 to 1990 and 1991 to 2006 for the late sowing date 15th May to 31st

October.

144

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 58.2 44.2 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 20.2 19.7 27.4

192500 47.6 32.2 38.9 20.2 10.6 21.6 20.2 45.7 30.8 37.0

187500 36.5 35.6 24.0 8.2 21.6 18.8 28.4 57.7 40.9 47.6

182500 16.3 21.6 25.0 17.3 31.3 23.6 26.0 46.6 56.3 64.4

177500 17.3 15.4 46.2 46.2 42.3 56.3 48.1 58.7 64.9 69.2

172500 22.1 33.2 42.8 52.4 72.1 57.7 51.4 58.2 52.4 51.4

167500 29.3 27.9 39.9 53.8 51.9 37.0 34.1 52.4 50.0 51.4

162500 23.1 22.6 28.8 42.8 38.9 30.8 32.2 32.2 48.1 53.8

157500 17.3 24.5 36.5 41.8 42.8 41.8 45.7 53.8 40.9 41.8

152500 19.2 24.0 35.1 45.2 51.9 51.4 45.2 51.9 39.4 38.9

1991 to 2006 15th May 31st October

452500 457500 462500 467500 472500 477500 482500 487500 492500 497500

197500 92.8 85.6 81.7 81.3 81.3 81.3 81.3 57.7 63.0 74.5

192500 88.5 74.5 73.6 59.1 39.9 65.9 62.0 88.0 77.4 83.7

187500 83.2 81.3 67.8 30.3 69.2 70.7 82.2 94.7 85.6 89.9

182500 60.6 64.4 70.2 57.2 79.8 81.3 83.7 91.8 93.8 95.7

177500 63.9 56.7 89.4 87.5 85.1 91.3 92.3 95.2 96.2 97.1

172500 69.7 80.8 86.5 90.4 95.7 93.3 92.3 93.3 91.3 90.9

167500 77.4 75.0 85.1 91.8 90.4 87.0 86.1 90.9 91.3 91.3

162500 70.7 69.2 76.0 88.0 86.1 84.1 84.1 81.7 90.4 92.8

157500 62.0 72.6 84.1 86.5 88.0 88.0 88.5 91.8 86.5 88.0

152500 63.9 69.7 80.8 86.5 88.9 88.9 86.1 90.4 84.6 86.1

1960 to 1990 15th May 31st October

1968 - 1990 1991 - 2006

Reading Grid Reading Grid

1st May – 30th Sept (%) 0.43 0.47 0.84 0.89

15th May – 30th Sept (%) 0.39 0.39 0.77 0.83

1st May – 31st Oct (%) 0.57 0.65 0.91 0.93

15th May – 31st Oct (%) 0.49 0.59 0.89 0.90

Probability of > 760 0C d calculated from University of Reading weather station and from 5 km grid square.

145

Conclusion

For University of Reading, in comparing the periods 1968 – 1990 and 1991 – 2009...

• The risk of air frost after 1st May has decreased from 0.4 to 0.1.

• The probability of successful harvest by 30th

September (760 °C d) increased from 0.43 to 0.86(for sowing 1st May) and from 0.39 to 0.81 (for sowing 15th May).

• Optimum sowing date appears to be around 15th

May which avoids slow germination but provides enough time for successful harvest.

146

Contd.

For the 250 km2 grid centered around Reading, comparing the periods 1960 – 1990 and 1991 – 2006…

• Thermal time above 10 °C has increased in all 5km grid squares. The thermal time achieved in 90% of years has increased by about 170 to 180 °C d i.e. by approximately 35%.

147

Contd.

• The probability of successful harvest (760 °C d from 1st May to 30th September) has increased in all 100 grid squares. The number of squares achieving this in 50% of years has increased from 4 to 98 and those achieving this in 80% of years from 0 to 59.

• Successful cultivation is possible in much of the grid area, particularly to the South and East of Reading.

148

Way forward for Coffee

With the clear view of Climate change issues:

• There is the urgent need to determine optimal thermal time units in coffee growing areas.

• Examine favourable thermal time units in global coffee growing areas in relation to Africa.

• Developing mitigation measures around the incidence of rising temperatures in Africa coffee growing areas.

149

A typical SAS programme for these calculations is given below.

Abbreviations are as in Allen et al (1998). LATD and Z are

latitude (0) and height (m) for Reading. RS2 is estimated solar

radiation.

• DATA bonasun.weather2007;• SET bonasun.weather2007;• LATD = 51.47;• Z = 40;• J = DOY;• LAT = LATD*3.14159/180;• DEC = 0.409*SIN(0.0172*J-1.39);• dr = 1 + 0.033*COS(0.0172*J);• ws = ARCOS(-TAN(LAT)*TAN(DEC));• RA = 37.6* dr*(ws*SIN(LAT)*SIN(DEC) + COS(LAT)*COS(DEC)*SIN(ws));• NA = 7.64*ws;• Sunfrac = SUNH/NA;• Radfrac = SGGLOBE/RA;• RS2 = (0.22605 + 0.55411*Sunfrac)*RA;• run;

150

Thank you for your kind

attention!

152

) in relation to thermal time and potential … · 2020. 7. 20. · introduction and background...

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