Logistic

LOGISTIC

LOGISTIC Logistic

,,

RISK , ,

(relative risk)RR,P1P0,: RR>1,,;RR

17.1 ,, ,,:

(%)

12 351 363 P1=3.3 1 817 818 P0=0.12 13 1168 1181

RR= =27.627.6

(cohort study), ,,,,, ,

: a b c d

=a/(a+b)

=c/(c+d)

=[a/(a+b)]/[c/(c+d)]

:

a

b

a+b

c

d

c+d

a+c

b+d

n=a+b+c+d

RR H0:1, RR=1 H1:1,RR1 2MH=[(ad-bc)2(n-1)]/[(a+b)(c+d)(a+c)(b+d)] 22n/(n-1) 2MH =[(n-1)/n]2 2=(ad-bc)2n/[(a+b)(c+d)(a+c)(b+d)] n,,,2Yates2

95%,99%

AR95%

_758896506.unknown

_758896569.unknown

_758896664.unknown

_758896465.unknown

21.2 ,609,,17.1 27(a) 95(b) 122 44(c) 443(d) 487 71 538 609

,,2.45

:

=(27/122)/(44/487)=2.45

H0: RR=1

H1:RR1

=[(27443-4495)2(609-1)]/(12248771538)=16.22

=16.22>20.01 , P

(Case-Control Study),,,,, ,,,,

a

b

c

d

a

b

c

d

,t

(Grouped Case-Control Study)(odds),(odds ratio)

(odds), Odds=P/1-P=[a/(a+b)]/[b/(a+b)]=a/b=[c/(c+d)]/[d/(c+d)]=c/d

OR(odds ratio) OR=[a/b]/[c/d]=ad/bc (P320)

21.3 ,,183()183(),:17.2 () 55 128 183 () 19 164 183 74 292 366

(17.19), =(55164)/(19128)=3.71H0:=1H1:1 =[(55164-19128)2(366-1)]/(74292183183)=21.89 >20.01=6.635,P

, ,,, ,,,,2(,)

17.3 300 56 294 21 6 35 700 944 606 79 94 865

=(300944)/(56700)=7.22

=(29479)/(60621)=1.83

=(6865)/(9435)=1.58

=7.22, ,

_758908104.unknown

,,1.83,1.58 (Stratified Analysis)(,,),,

K22:P32317.4512 3 41

,,,,, ,,(Paired Case-Contral Study)

, , ,,,,,,

Logistic ,y Logisticy,,, 10SASlogistic12Y=1 Y=2 Logistic

Yresponse variable)X: (covariate),(explanatory) , X, logisticPY1,P=P(Y=1)Q=1-P,Q=P(Y=2) PXi Logistic

P=[exp(b0+b1x1++bmxm)]/[1+exp(b0+b1x1++bmxm)] Q=1-P=1/[1+exp(b0+b1x1++bmxm)] P/(1-P)=exp(b0+b1x1++bmxm)y=ln[P/(1-P)]logit,, y=ln[p/(1-p)]= b0+b1x1++bmxm Logistic

SASLogisticLogistic Logistic

Logistic

1. P2.

Logistic

3. Xibi Xiexp(bi)(1) Xi1=0= exp(bi)Logistic

2Xi0=1=2=3= exp(bi) exp(3bi)3Xi exp(bi)6035exp(25bi)Logistic

4. bi 5. XLXKXLK= XL*XK bLKXLXK6. LogisticLogistic

17 6 23 5 87 92 22 93 115

Sensitivity= 17/23=73.9%specificity= 87/92=94.6%correct= / 17+87/ 115=90.4%false positive rate= 5/22=22.7%false negative rate= 6/93=6.5%

LOGISTIC P/1PEXP-17.96+3.63X5+1.60X6+1.91X7+2.57X8 X

12X1A, =1, =0YY3=1=0 3 SAS6.12 t LOGISTIC3YYP0.05

1 RCPP 2LOGISTIC

P

-2.8770 2.0954 0.1697 . X3C 2.2844 1.0210 0.0253 0.519452 X5 1.0102 0.3147 0.0013 0.931773 X6 1.6321 0.5449 0.0027 0.837360 X8 -0.5764 0.1874 0.0021 -0.917033 X9 0.000386 0.000186 0.0384 0.392918

3 e2.2844=9.821 e1.0102=2.751 e1.6321=5.111g/L e0.5764=1.781000/mm3e0.386 =1.47

33

LOGISTICy=ln(P/(1-P))= -2.8770+2.2844 +1.0102 +1.6321 -0.5764 g/L +0.000386 /mm3

LOGISTIC98P0.5P0.5 47 7 54 9 35 44 56 42 98

Sensitivity= 47/54=87.0%specificity= 35/44=79.5%correct= / 47+35/ 98=83.7%false positive rate= 9/56=16.1%false negative rate= 7/42=16.7%