兩岸服貿協議對我國的衝擊分析homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~ntuperc/conference-1-files/20130725_3_1.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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2013/07/25
1
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2
(Joseph Stiglitz)
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3
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ECFA
4
2010629ECFA
201289
2013621()
2013
ECFA
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5
http://www.ecfa.org.tw/
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6:
(1)(2)(3)(4)
E.
(b)(
)
(CPC83104**)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(c)
(CPC83101**)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(d)
(CPC83106-831
09)(
)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
F.
(a)
(CPC871**)(
)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(b)
(CPC86401**
)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(c)
(CPC865)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Page8
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()
7:
(1)(2)(3)(4)
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8
WTO(GATS)4
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
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9
/
(1).a.b.c.d.e.(2) ()(3)(4)(5)
(6)()
(1)(2)(3)
.(1)
(1)(2)()(3) ()
(1)() (2)(3) ()(4) ()
(1)
(1)(2)(3)
(1)(
)
(1)
(2)
(1)(2)
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/
(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)
(1)(2)(3)
(1)
(1)(2)(3)
()(1)(2)(3)(4)
(1)(2)(3)
(2).()(3)
(1)(
)(2)(3)()
()()(4)()(5)(6)(7)
()
10
-
11
1. ()
2. 3.2
1.2.3.
50%
1.
2.
1.50%2.3.
-
()
1. 2.
1. 3065%2.
1. 2.
3.
1. 2.
()2
12
-
(Joseph Stiglitz)
13
:http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2013/07/10/2003566743
First, any trade agreement has to be symmetrical.
Second, no trade agreement should put commercial interests ahead of broader national interests.
Finally, there must be a commitment to transparency.
By Joseph Stiglitz
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14
Joseph Stiglitz
Stiglitz: 1.
Stiglitz: 2.
Stiglitz: 3.
18!!
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2.1 :
(1)(2)(3)
(4)
(1)(2)(3)1.30
65%2.(4)
//
()
:
15
-
() ()
4 4,282 82
5 4,086 182
7 2,984 123
29 1,336 378
2.2 :
16
2013500896
89
6
() ()
30 1,321 32
305 365 -11
321 344 8
379 302 1
384 298 2
499 233 1
-
444 94 1,193 10 137
610 92 1,653 4 143
827 20 864 6 97
896 24 667 6 82
230 4,377 26 459
2.2 : ()
17
(Forbes) 2013
1 1,348 28,135 378 2,373
2 1,131 22,410 306 2,020
8 1,030 21,242 230 1,508
11 9,81 20,338 221 1,317
3,509 92,125 1,135 7,218
2040
-
2.3 :
12.5 IBMPC (2005)
50Morgan Stanley (2007)
30 (2007)
5520% (2007)
4335 (2008)
40 (2008)
25020 (2009)
200 (2010)
151 (2013)
20081032012652
6
18
-
2.4 :
19
-
2.5
20
!
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21
-
3.1 ?
22
117385C400
(11-12)
55% (PC Home)ICP
-
3.1 ? ()
23
(102/7/19) !
64()!
()
-
3.2 (41)
24
93.586158.64.2
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25
50 100
402013200
80
500
(1)(2)2(3)2(4)
100~1000
1000
2,000
202
5017
3.2 (42)
-
3.2 (43)
26
CEPA
-
3.2 (44)
27
3982166000
(1)
(2)
(3)2010
-
3.3
28
20
1/3
-
3.4 (21)
29
-
3.4 (22)
30
-
3.5
31
2008
-
3.6 (21)
32
(2013/7/03) !
2010ECFA25.3%26.8%201028.02%
-
3.6 (2 2)
2007 23.7% 20.4% 8.8% 7.2% 6.2% 33.8%
2008 24.3% 20.3% 8.0% 6.9% 5.9% 34.5%
2009 28.5% 19.3% 8.2% 6.7% 5.3% 32.0%
2010 30.1% 18.5% 8.0% 6.2% 5.1% 32.1%
2011 33.1% 16.7% 7.2% 5.4% 5.1% 32.5%
CEPA23.7%33.1%CEPA
-
3.7 (21)
34
: 201236.284.4
:
-
3.7 (22)
35
:
:
-
3.8
36
(1)(3)
-
37
-
:
38
200625
82
200742
2007630
201011
201012 ()
20111021
20111116FTA
20111129FTA14
2012315FTA
FTA