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Prof Sanjay Bakshi’s Fav Stock Falls From

Grace Even As ValuePickr Forum’s Ominous

Warning Rings True

Written by Arjun

Prof Sanjay Bakshi’s favourite stock which supposedly has an “impenetrable moat ”

around it has fallen off the cliff. Worse, the Company is being likened to Satyam and

questions are being raised about the existence of a huge amount of cash on its books.

What is the way out for its beleaguered investors?

Our Stocks Talk Forum already has 3000+ investors having

stimulating discussions on stocks. Please join us asap

Prof Sanjay Bakshi’s mastery in stock investing theory cannot be disputed.

He is a staunch believer in the theory that buying stocks with a “moat ” or a

competitive edge will benefit investors immensely in the long run even if

they pay a hefty premium for such stocks.

Sadly, the Prof’s stock picks are not living up to the high expectations

reposed in them. At least three of the Prof’s favourite stocks, Kitex

Garments, Vaibhav Global and Ashiana Housing, are presently reeling under

poor performance and are close to their 52-week lows.

Kitex Garments shocked everyone today by slumping 13% on the back of

poor Q3FY16 results. The stock has lost 35% in just the last month. The

stock touched an all-time high of Rs. 1070 on 6th July 2015. At the CMP of

Rs. 473, there is a whopping loss of 56%.

It is notable that the Prof was uncharacteristically bullish about theprospects of Kitex Garments. In a note titled “The Importance of

Unconventionality ”, the Prof came out with all guns blazing in favour of

Kitex Garments. He said:

“As gigantic customers like Carter’s, Toys “R” Us, Gerber, and The Children’s

Jan26th

2016

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Why these stock advisors dont start mutual funds if they are so skilled?????

I always read various posts including

various fights and blame game about

various advisory firms..I have one

question if these stock advisory services

are as efficient and accurate in stock

market prediction, why they don't start

mutual funds or why don't start

investment compnies like Warrent Buffet.

As far as claim I read ,which might […]

Kitex Garments - Does stated futuregrowth justify its high valuations?

After it was mentioned that textiles is a

good sector, someone was also kind

enough to mention Kitex Garments.

Since then I have studied their numbers

and business model and details onmanagement integrity. They look to be a

great firm with a clear vision and track

record of execution. But it is quoting at

[…]

WHICH IS BEST BRANDED APPAREL PLAY TO RIDE URBAN CONSUMPTION BOOM

STOCKS TALK FORUM

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Articles Research Reports Stocks Talk News

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Place divert more of their sourcing requirements to Kitex, I expect the

company’s revenues and earnings to grow manifold over the next decade.

…..

Despite its tiny size, the company enjoys significant power over its much

larger customers which is reflected in improvement in its profitability and

working capital situation. EBITDA margins have improved from 16% in 2008

to 24% in FY14. Working capital turns have improved from 4x to 11x over

the same period. In FY14, Kitex delivered a 60% pre-tax return on equity with no net debt.”

The Prof also made it clear that more bucks can be harvested from Kitex

Garments and that he has no intention of cashing out: He wrote:

“As I write this, the current market price is Rs 492 per share. I have no

target sell price, and I haven’t sold a single share. Moreover, I feel good

that I invested in this pro-social, and yet highly profitable business – a

combination I absolutely love.”

Unfortunately, the Prof did not voice any concerns or risk factors about the

stock. Instead, he raised a rhetorical question in the note “What could proveme wrong in this investment? ” which was supposed to be answered by his

elite students in class and to which the members of the public would have

no access.

It is notable that the Prof’s unbridled bullishness about Kitex Garments

was/is in sharp contrast with the caution expressed by the analysts of

valuepickr forum.

The valuepickr forum, co-founded by Donald Francis and Ayush Mittal,

boasts of a large number of razor-sharp and knowledgeable members, each

of whom keeps a red alert to ensure that junkyard stocks don’t slip through

the tight cordon.

Donald Francis raised the pertinent question whether Kitex Garments was

really that hot an investment opportunity given that “We have many

businesses which are capable of growing 20-25% CAGR for next 3-5 years –

where we do not have these issues – transparency, consistency and strong

visibility for next 2-3 years.”

He also asked “What remains in the puzzle is how come Kitex is doing 20%

EBITDA margins when the norm is 10%? is this sustainable? why? ”

He also explained that “The key to proper in-depth research is not to take

anything for granted. And to question anything that prima facie does not

add up”

Other members shared similar concerns about Kitex Garments. krishere

expressed his worry about Kitex’s “funny math”. He pointed out that the

projections made by the MD didn’t quite add up.

krishere also voiced what he called are his “major five concerns” about

Kitex.

Donald also issued a clear cut “warning to novice investors” that “What

doesn’t add up – are big gaps between stated and what seems to be thecurrent picture”.

Dhiraj Dave homed in on what he called “concerns about management

conduct ”, one of which had to do with a huge cash balance which was

mysteriously not earning much interest.

Present market crisis will pass if not in

days than in months,but we need to

focus what after that? .We need to focus

on 1.3 Billion Indian consumers for

Secular growth stories .One will be

Branded Apparel Play.What will be best

play in this category to ride on urban

consumers ??Can members help to find

[…]

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Prof Sanjay Bakshi’s Fav Stock Falls

From Grace Even As ValuePickr Forum’s

Ominous Warning Rings True

Model Portfolio Update By ICICI-Direct

(Jan 2016)

20 Top-Quality Mid-Cap Stock

Recommendations By Forbes India For

2016

Forget High P/E vs. Low P/E. It Is A

“Rubbish” & “Stupid” Way Of Valuing

Stocks: Bharat Shah

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Buffett’s Credo & Pockets Fortune From

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kharb on Prof Sanjay Bakshi’s Fav Stock

Falls From Grace Even As ValuePickr

Forum’s Ominous Warning Rings True

Harshad on Prof Sanjay Bakshi’s Fav

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3/7



The issue of the alleged cash balance in Kitex’s balance sheet came up for

frequent discussion with several members exclaiming that it is “ very odd ”

that the cash was being allegedly held abroad in apparent contravention of

FEMA regulations. sumi00 called it “sort of stupid behaviour which led to

blow up of many mid-caps’ balance sheets during the last crisis”. “They

should have transferred to India and invested in mutual fund if they really

want to get higher returns” he opined.

varadharajanr was also skeptical. He called it “illogical ” that a company

would keep Rs. 199 crore in an interest free deposit. “ I feel something doesnot add up here” he added in an ominous tone.

PP1 was not at all impressed by Kitex Garments. “Some brokers, and others

have been pumping up the stock, I suspect….” he said and later added

bluntly “There is no moat here, I am afraid.”

varadharajanr pursued the issue of the cash balance like a blood hound “I

have been only focussed on this over the last two days and I am convinced

that the Rs. 200 Cr. cash raises several questions” he said and proceeded to

raise several red flags. varadharajanr was bold enough to liken Kitek with

the scam-tainted Satyam “the Rs. 200 Cr. cash is a “phantom” cookie jar.

Seems like satyam redux – through a merger with KCL, (so like satyam

maytas merger), wipe out the cash and keep the scheme going ” he said. He

added that he was “very very nervous” about Kitex Garments.

Ayush Mittal, the co-founder of the forum also sent out a clear warning:

“given the points raised and short-comings in the company, this investment

call can go wrong – so everyone please be careful and do your homework ”

he said.

vivekbothra also sounded a warning: “Caution here : Managment has not

always walked the talk, you can go through last five years AR to verify

that ”.

The specter of the huge cash caused so much concern that one intrepid

member even called up the auditor to “dig more into the truth of the 200

crore cash “. Of course, the auditor assured him that everything was hunky-

dory though he was described as being “very nervous”.

The cash issue raised its ugly head again during the Q2FY16 results. The

management’s assertion that it was waiting for the rupee to touch Rs. 67 to

a dollar was mocked and termed as a red flag. “Mgmt is crazy over the cash

issue…I doubt the Corporate governance of the company ” abhishek90 said

while chiragjain1976 called it a “totally foolish thing to do”. richdreamz was

also suspicious of the management’s reluctance to come clean on the issueof the cash balance.

The rumors that something is amiss with regard to the cash balance of Rs.

200 crore got some credence when Boby Michael, Kitek’s General Manager

(Finance) and Chief Financial Officer resigned with “immediate effect ” on 7th

January 2016. Rajesh_R voiced the concern of everyone on the forum “CFO

resignation effective immediately doesn’t seem right. Could this be more of

a non-performance or personality clash or some financial mess up esp.

related to 200 crores cash? ” he pondered.

Meanwhile, before the management could offer any clarification on why the

CFO resigned in the abrupt manner, the Q3FY16 results have been

announced which caused the stock price to tank 13%.

Some members at the valuepickr forum were openly distraught at their loss

while others kept a brave face. KS16 mourned the huge loss that he had

http://forum.valuepickr.com/t/kitex-garments-limited/946/405http://forum.valuepickr.com/t/kitex-garments-limited/946/209http://forum.valuepickr.com/t/kitex-garments-limited/946/311http://forum.valuepickr.com/t/kitex-garments-limited/946/306http://forum.valuepickr.com/t/kitex-garments-limited/946/297


4/7



← Model Portfolio Update By ICICI-Direct

(Jan 2016)

suffered “ All I can say is that from here, I will never take any concall update

or guidance in face value. In India, anything goes and people can talk

anything, pull wool over one’s eyes, wash their mouth and move on….” he

wept.

The punters at MMB were equally distraught at the huge loss facing them.

“Mr jacob cannot be trusted anymore-period. We are taken for a ride. ”

“Unfortunately Mr Jacob talks too much. He claimed full year revenue is

secured INR 600 cr . Now GOD knows what will happen. Q4 cannot bemagical to have INR 250 cr rev. So the questioning is -Did he bull shit in

CNBC after Q1 results” mossad demanded to know.

Man111 smelt a rat in Kitex Garments “Resignation of CFO and GM Finance

smell foul in the company. Most important is the cash flow is very much

interesting” he said.

Now, there is an important investing lesson embedded in the Kitex

Garments episode. We have to see whether Prof Sanjay Bakshi unravels the

lesson for us sooner or later!

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Comments

kharb

Whlat is written by Prof Baksh that he preaches valueinvesting,but most of time I see him as invester of

Duds.Any body can go through my comments iñ various articles andstock talk to see that .More over many of so called experts have beenin agreement or has been father of their Duds. Which can also beenseen in various comments.Without naming any stock or experts,manyof them suddenly start buying a dud claiming that they have found agem.Public also followed without knowing that many of these Duds arerolling stone till yesterday,what value addition magic can expert put inold Duds which have been lying dorment .There is simple game playedwith permoters,buy dud cheap ,make a beautiful and sexy griwth storyand dump it to inexperienced and those type investers who are insearch of quick money.Stock market can not give quick money butserious long term play of aprox 20% return in Quality fundamentalystrong sector leaders with some growth and pricing power .To memany of the new magicians in Stock market are Father of Duds.

Reply

January 26, 2016 at 8:36 am | Permalink

kharb

Latest magic sector found by Guru was real estate, asector known for notorious for destroying and foolinginvesters directly in stock market and as well in real estateinvestment ,although as always all builders are not same andmay be good ,but a diifcult game to find out among most.Kitexgarment future performance has been questioned by me invarious forms including stock talk.

Reply


Suvendu

Dear KharbI don’t think Prof Bakshi needs to be called asfather or investor of duds. I been through several of hisseminars, wont call him out part of traditional valueinvesting club. He is entitled to his contrarian view whiletrying to define competitive advantage.Saying this I do agree, even today I feel uncomfortable tosome of stock pickings such as real estate, over hypedgarments company. With such poor balance sheet

management, little protection…i wasnt convinced howvaluation can create a sustainable growth alone!

Reply


kharb

I did not said Prof as father of Duds andhas great respect to our Prof Guru..Butsimply said that he advocated value investing, butstunnedto see him as invester of Duds.I may bewrong but sorry to say many of his recommendations

made to believe me so.I shall be happy to be wrongand with Great respect to Prof saheb wish Good luckto investers in his recommendation.I wish Prof Sahebalso look into some bigger Mid caps or large capcompnies with authentic managements and trustworthy numbers for benefit of investers like me.Anyway sorry for harsh comments.


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god

yes. bakshi is dk bose

Reply


Anitha

Today it is Kitex. Tomorrow!!!! Ashapura intimate????

Reply


Harshad

Mistakes keep us human…every one has some failures in investing life.BM faced it with Hawkins, now Prof facing it with Kitex and Vaibhavglobal. Damani with Gati,One has to take all advise with pinch of salt, study your own, takenwhat ever is good for your financial health, leave out the rest.Some ideas click, some don’t, its individuals study and opinion.Investment is a journey , make profits , make mistakes but keepmoving on..

Reply

January 26, 2016 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

kharb

Although I am no fan of BM.But he atleast discussquality names,but recommending even at any cost ishis fault.

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January 26, 2016 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

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