starter activity

Who or what influences the way we vote?

ClassClass AgeAge GenderGender EthnicityEthnicity EducationEducation MediaMedia Party policiesParty policies

Party leadersParty leaders Opinion pollsOpinion polls IssuesIssues GeographyGeography ParentsParents Personal economic Personal economic

prospectsprospects

Who influences Who influences the way we vote?the way we vote?

An introduction to voting An introduction to voting behaviourbehaviour

How do psephologists How do psephologists interpret voting behaviour?interpret voting behaviour?

PsephologyPsephology Primacy model (social divisions, e.g. Primacy model (social divisions, e.g.

age, gender, ethnicity)age, gender, ethnicity) Recency model (volatile voting Recency model (volatile voting

behaviour, e.g. behaviour, e.g. partisan partisan dealignment,dealignment, embourgeoisement, embourgeoisement, floating voters floating voters ) )

Voting behaviour in Voting behaviour in by-by-elections elections & & marginalsmarginals

Voting moreVoting more volatile volatile ProtestProtest & & tactical tactical

votingvoting v. common v. common Media & party focusMedia & party focus By election seats By election seats

often recaptured by often recaptured by original holders at original holders at general electionsgeneral elections

2005 anti-Iraq vote, 2005 anti-Iraq vote, e.g. Oona King, Bethanl e.g. Oona King, Bethanl

Green & Bow lost to Green & Bow lost to George GallowayGeorge Galloway

Voting behaviour in general Voting behaviour in general electionselections

Opinion pollsOpinion polls Swing Swing of votes of votes

from one party to from one party to another, measured another, measured against last against last general electiongeneral election

2005 GE, 2.0% 2005 GE, 2.0% swing from Lab. to swing from Lab. to Cons.Cons.

The Times Swingometer for 2005 GE

The electorate – socio-The electorate – socio-economic trends & issueseconomic trends & issues

North-South divideNorth-South divide Changing patterns Changing patterns

of occupationof occupation Home ownershipHome ownership EthnicityEthnicity GenderGender AgeAge ReligionReligion Social ClassSocial ClassBased on research in P. Fairclough, ‘AS & A Level Govt. & Politics through diagrams’

North-South Divide?North-South Divide? 1980s growing divide 1980s growing divide

between prosperous South & between prosperous South & economically declining Northeconomically declining North

Primary industriesPrimary industries (e.g. (e.g. mining) & manufacturing mining) & manufacturing (e.g. textiles) declining(e.g. textiles) declining

Service Service & & financial sectorfinancial sector expandingexpanding

Differences in health & life Differences in health & life expectancy (‘Postcode expectancy (‘Postcode lottery’)lottery’)

1994, average income per 1994, average income per head in North = 89% of UK head in North = 89% of UK averageaverage

Average income per head in Average income per head in South = 117% of UK averageSouth = 117% of UK average

Changing patterns of Changing patterns of occupationoccupation

Decline in heavy industry Decline in heavy industry (36% GDP, 1951; 22% GDP (36% GDP, 1951; 22% GDP 1995)1995)

Decline in manufacturing Decline in manufacturing employment (43%, 1955; employment (43%, 1955; 18%, 1996)18%, 1996)

Decline in heavy industry Decline in heavy industry employment (0.9%, 1996) employment (0.9%, 1996)

Expansion of service sector Expansion of service sector (36%, 1955; 76%, 1996)(36%, 1955; 76%, 1996)

Privatisation of nationalised Privatisation of nationalised industriesindustries

Increased share ownership Increased share ownership (7%, 1979; 22%, 1997)(7%, 1979; 22%, 1997)

More female, part-time More female, part-time workers (20%, 1996) & self-workers (20%, 1996) & self-employed (1979-90, employed (1979-90, increased 75%)increased 75%)

Home ownershipHome ownership Housing Act, 1980, gave Housing Act, 1980, gave

council house tenants council house tenants ‘right to buy’ at ‘right to buy’ at discounts of 50-70% discounts of 50-70% market valuemarket value

1988, most council 1988, most council house stock transferred house stock transferred to Housing Associationsto Housing Associations

Increased home Increased home ownership increased ownership increased (52-67%, 1971-95)(52-67%, 1971-95)

Decrease in rental (48-Decrease in rental (48-32%, 1971-95)32%, 1971-95)

EthnicityEthnicity 1996, ethnic population 1996, ethnic population

= 3.3m (6% of pop.)= 3.3m (6% of pop.) Problems – Problems –

discrimination, under-discrimination, under-achievement, achievement, unemployment & low payunemployment & low pay

Inherent racism - 1997, Inherent racism - 1997, Guardian survey, 32% Guardian survey, 32% white population would white population would mind if relatives married mind if relatives married Afro-CaribbeanAfro-Caribbean

Inequalities in judicial Inequalities in judicial systemsystem

Threat of terrorismThreat of terrorismOona King

GenderGender Increase in female Increase in female

workforce (1971-workforce (1971-196, 33-44%)196, 33-44%)

Glass ceilings – 26% Glass ceilings – 26% female workers female workers employed in clerical employed in clerical occupationsoccupations

Lower average Lower average weekly income weekly income (1995, 374.60 men, (1995, 374.60 men, £269.60 women)£269.60 women)

AgeAge

Ageing population Ageing population – pensions crisis, – pensions crisis, strains on NHSstrains on NHS

Decrease in birth Decrease in birth rate, increase in rate, increase in life expectancylife expectancy

Average life Average life expectancy 70+expectancy 70+

ReligionReligion Church of England Church of England

described as ‘Tory Party at described as ‘Tory Party at prayer’, closely identified prayer’, closely identified with establishmentwith establishment

Non-conformists aligned Non-conformists aligned with Liberalswith Liberals

Non-Christians & Catholics Non-Christians & Catholics tend to support Labour tend to support Labour (48%/60% in 2001)(48%/60% in 2001)

Conservatives receive Conservatives receive more support from more support from Anglicans than other Anglicans than other groups (39% in 2001)groups (39% in 2001)

Problems differentiating Problems differentiating religion from ethnicity, e.g. religion from ethnicity, e.g. Asian / Muslim votersAsian / Muslim voters

Social classSocial class

Market research divide class into 6 socio-Market research divide class into 6 socio-economic classes (1964/1992)economic classes (1964/1992)

A Professional / senior managerial (7.0/11.6)A Professional / senior managerial (7.0/11.6) B Middle managers / execs. (12.3/16.3)B Middle managers / execs. (12.3/16.3) C1 Junior managers / non-manual C1 Junior managers / non-manual

(23.1/31.3)(23.1/31.3) C2 Skilled manual (7.6/4.8)C2 Skilled manual (7.6/4.8) D Semi-skilled / unskilled manualD Semi-skilled / unskilled manual E Residual or causal workers / unemp. E Residual or causal workers / unemp.

(50.2/36.0)(50.2/36.0)