-Tarak Bahadur KC, PhD, NASC

DECISION MAKING SKILLS

29th BAT , 2071

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Session Outline Meaning of Decision / Decision

Making Approaches / Styles and Process of

Decision Making Bases / Methods / Characteristics of

Decision Making in Nepal Issues / Challenges / Problems in

Decision Making Approaches to Improving Decision

Making Ability Ethics and Morality in Decision

Making Tips for Effective Decision Making

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Importance of Decision Making

A key role of an officer Whatever an officer does, he does

through making decisions No organisations can be run without

making decisions Carries long-term implications.

Organisations grow or fail as a result of decisions made by its decision makers.

The wellbeing of an organisation depends almost entirely on the quality of its decisions.

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Decision

“A Decision is a Judgment.”

- Peter Drucker

- A decision is a Choice between or among various alternatives.

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1. Personal decisions to achieve own objectives.

2. Organisational decisions to fulfill the obligations of own position in the organisation.

1. Programmed – usually made at lower level and are usually routine in nature. Made on the basis of pre-established rules / procedures.

2. Non-programmed – established rules / procedures are inadequate to deal with the new kinds of situations, and the decision maker has to be innovative. The risks involved are high. Decisions made about non-recurring problems for which there are no pre-specified courses of action.

Classification of Decisions

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Decision Making

… is the selection of one behaviour alternative from two or more possible alternatives in relation to a problem / situation. – Terry… is the process of examining possible options, comparing them and choosing a course of action.… is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision-maker. When we make a decision, we want to choose the one/s that fit us best.

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The Authoritarian Approach. Deciding independently seeking no contributions other than asking for necessary information and passing them down the line for implementation. Officers assume the authority to take decisions alone and to pass them down the line for implementation.

The Democratic Approach. Jointly, as a team, making a decision which has the support of the whole group. The responsibility for decision making is shared between the officer and members of a team.

Approaches to Decision Making

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Authoritarian Style

Democratic

Style

The officer makes decisions and announces them

The officer sells the decision to the team

The officer presents the idea and invites questions

The officer presents a tentative decision subject to change

The officer presents a problem, gets inputs from the team and then decides

The officer defines the limits and asks the group to make the decision

The officer permits the team to make decisions with predefined limits

The officer allows team members complete freedom of action

Range of Decision Making Styles

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No one style appropriate for all situations.

Occasions when one style rather than any other is more likely to produce better quality decisions implemented with greater success.

Each style has a probability of getting results depending on the maturity of followers and the situation.

Need to adopt a flexible approach by varying style in response to the nature of the decision and the context in which it is made and ultimately implemented.

Approaches/Styles to Decision Making

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Decision Making Process

Rational Decision Making Process

Sense Effects

Identify/Define Problems

Develop Alternatives

Evaluate Alternatives

Choose the Best Alternative

Implement the Decision

Monitor the Implementation

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I Diagnose Problem/ Define the Objective

"A problem properly defined is a problem half solved.“

Define the problem Identify the decision objectives (what

will happen when the problem has been solved)

Identify the causes of problem To whom is it a problem? What kind of problem is it (attitude,

understanding, competence, …)? Has this ever happened before? What is the potential magnitude of the

problem, if it remains unresolved?

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II Develop Alternatives to Solve the Problem

This is a brainstorming step to generate alternatives, not to evaluate them. Brainstorming suggests a range of possible solutions. Listing options (Thinking creatively) - the alternatives to reach Pokhara?

- Nobody says “no”- Nobody says “That will never work”- Nobody says “That has already been

tried …”- Nobody says “That is a stupid idea"

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III Evaluate Alternatives

Realistic to Organisation Goals

Helpful to Solve the Problem

Timing Resources Acceptability Feasibility Risk

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IV Choose the Best Alternatives

Solution should be satisfactory rather than ideal. There are four criteria for choosing the best from among the possible solutions:

1. The risk - weigh the risks of each course of action against the expected gains.

2. Economy of effort - which will give the greatest results with the least effort?

3. Timing- situation in the organisation.

4. Limitations of resources - vision, competence, skill, etc. of staff who carryout decisions. Do we have resources to carryout decisions?

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V Implement the Decision

Putting a chosen solution into effect requires a carefully drawn-up action plan.SN Activities /

ActionsBy Required

Resource (s)Critical Success

Factor (s)Whom When

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VI Monitor the Decision

Set dates for monitoring. Who will monitor? How and when?

Is the solution effective? Are we still satisfied? Are there parts that

need reworking? In the light of new data received, do we need to make any changes?

Has there been any permanent improvement?

Are we learning from experience? What new problems have we identified?

Bases of Decision Making (Nepal)

Constitution Acts, Rules, Policies Court / Executive order Budgetary instruments Administrative procedures International conventions,

declarations and commitments Treaties/ MOUs with international

communities / agencies Parliamentary directives CIAA / NVC directions, etc.

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Methods (Nepal)

Tippani Cabinet Proposal Minutes (Meeting /

Committee) Tok-aadesh

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Characteristics (Nepal)

"Manasaya" "Bholi" - never comes. Passing to others

(above) / avoidance Afno manchhe- nepotism, favouritism /

(exclusion) Patchwork/ 11th hour Ad-hoc Populist Survival (individualistic) Pressure – individual / group Centralized- dominated by power centers Delegated matters forwarded to delegator Ignorance to institutional interest

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Issues / Challenges

Implementability Ownership of decision Decisiveness of decision maker Ethics and integrity of decision

maker Failing to consult others Globalization effects PEST Innovation / creativity?

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Problems in Decision Making

Real life Decision Makers must cope with: Inadequate information about the

nature of the problem and its possible solutions,

The lack of resources to acquire more complete information,

Distorted perceptions of the information available,

The inability of the human memory to retain large amount of information, and

The limits of their own intelligence to determine correctly which alternative is best. - Herbert Simon

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Problems in Decision Making

Which problem to solve? What is a right decision? External and internal

environment Individual's values,

capabilities, biasness / prejudice, experience

Influencing factors Conflicting information For some “thinking” is not

“work”

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Basic Approaches to Improve Decision Making Ability

1. Improve analytical ability2. Adopt systematic

approach3. Invite conflicting views4. Consider factors

influencing decision making

5. Use imagination / Be creative

6. Implementation and follow-up

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1. Improve Analytical Ability

Opinions are perfectly good starting point. Ask questions starting with:

What, Why, When, How, Where, and Who.

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2. Adopt Systematic Approach

Analyse the situation Identify possible

courses of action Weigh them up Decide what to do

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3. Invite Conflicting Views

One should not expect a bland consensus view

The best decisions emerge from a clash of conflicting points of view

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4. Consider Factors Influencing Decision Making

Availability of resources Environment- internal / external

(PEST) Capability, values, experience of

concerned people Knowledge Biasness / prejudice / interest Customs and habits of people Psychological factors- emotion,

ethics, values… Future as anticipated Superiors and subordinates

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5. Use Imagination

Use 'lateral thinking' and 'brain-storming'. You can develop your ability to think creatively by:

Breaking away from any restrictions Opening up your mind to generate

new ideas Delaying judgment until you have

thoroughly explored the alternative ideas (for example, 'It won't work', 'It won't solve the problem')

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6. Implementation and Follow-up

A problem is not solved until the decision is implemented. Think carefully not only about how a thing is to be done (who, what, when) but also about its impact on the people concerned and the extent to which they will co-operate.

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Ethics and Morality in Decision Making

Ethics: moral beliefs and rules about right and wrong.

The branch of philosophy that defines what is good for the individual and society,

Making ethical decisions in business is often difficult because business ethics is not just an extension of either an individual ’s or a society’s ethics. However, the following support being ethical:

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Ethics ….

Trustworthiness Respect Responsibility Fairness Caring Citizenship

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Some Tips for Effective Decision Making

It is not choice between right or wrong, rather choosing from among alternatives

What is right, not who is right Consider those affected by the decision

(involve if feasible) Mentally rehearse implementation of your

choice View a ‘problem’ as an ‘opportunity’ Decision must meet the situation, and be

acceptable to as large number of people as possible

Choosing the right alternative at the wrong time is not any better than the wrong alternative at the right time, so make the decision while still have time

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Conclusion

Decision must meet the situation, and be acceptable to as large number of people as possible. Effective decision making requires creativity. Creative thinking is hindered by perceptual blocks, emotional blocks and cultural / environmental blocks. Therefore, first thing is to overcome from the blocks and be creative in different course of action, likely causes, possible solutions, and a variety of outcomes.

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“Think Laterally, and be Creative.”

Good luck

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1. CONTRIBUTION- To solve problem

2. MONEY- Cost to implement

3. HR- Needed to implement the action

4. COMMITMENT: Committed suitable people to action

5. RESISTANCE- Expected resistance from stakeholders

6. PROBLEMS- Other problems by the decision

Options 1 2 3 4 5 6

A

B

C

D

III. Criteria for Evaluation / Decision Criteria

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III. Criteria for Evaluation / Decision Criteria

Positive Negative

Self

Others