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�?_hi� �� �ih?@h_�

\doh Vfkrro ri Pdqdjhphqw

Qdwlrqdo Exuhdx ri Hfrqrplf Uhvhdufk

aL@U��4 @}?ihLqvwlwxw i�xu Yronvzluwvfkdiwvohkuh/ Xqlyhuvlw�dw O�xqhexuj

Dsulo 4<<; �2�f

Wklv sdshu h{dplqhv wkh ghflvlrq wr hqwhu wkh h{sruw pdunhw e| Jhupdq �upv1Zkloh h{sruwv kdyh sod|hg dq lpsruwdqw uroh lq uhfhqw Jhupdq exvlqhvv f|fohpryhphqwv/ olwwoh lv nqrzq derxw wkh h{sruw vxsso| uhvsrqvh ri Jhupdq �upv1Wklv sdshu suhvhqwv d g|qdplf prgho ri wkh h{sruw ghflvlrq e| dsur�w0pd{lpl}lqj �up1 Xvlqj d sdqho ri Jhupdq pdqxidfwxulqj sodqwv/ zh whvwiru wkh uroh ri sodqw fkdudfwhulvwlfv dqg vxqn frvwv lq wkh hqwu| ghflvlrq1 Zh �qghylghqfh iru vxevwdqwldo vxqn frvwv lq h{sruw hqwu|> h{sruwlqj wrgd| e| d sodqwlqfuhdvhv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh sodqw zloo h{sruw wrpruurz e| 83(1 Wklvdgydqwdjh ghsuhfldwhv txlfno|/ idoolqj e| wzr wklugv lq d |hdu1 Zh dovr �qghylghqfh wkdw sodqw vxffhvv/ dv phdvxuhg e| vl}h dqg surgxfwlylw|/ lqfuhdvh wkholnholkrrg ri h{sruwlqj1NH\ ZRUGV= vxqn frvwv/ k|vwhuhvlv/ sdqho gdwd/ xqrevhuyhg khwhurjhqhlw|/g|qdplf elqdu| fkrlfhMHO Fodvvl�fdwlrq= I53/ G54/ O93

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Table 1: Exporters and Non-Exporters

Year Status No. offirms

Export quota(percent)

Hours perworker - bluecollar workers

Hourly wagesblue collar

workers (DM;real, 1985)

Salaries -White Collar(1000 DM;real, 1985)

No. ofemployees

Fraction ofblue collar

workers

Sum of salesin Germany(1000 DM;real, 1991)

Exports (1000DM; real,

1991)

Value ofproduction(1000 DM;real, 1991)

78 0 2853 1876 16.59 42.74 53.50 0.75 10869 95831 1798 18.03 1717 21.18 51.99 278.45 0.75 42615 20006 50344

79 0 2845 1849 17.29 44.19 54.31 0.75 11269 99551 1791 18.24 1707 21.70 53.11 280.91 0.75 44339 21447 52201

80 0 2796 1828 17.44 44.64 55.31 0.75 11457 99611 1767 18.87 1680 22.41 54.41 288.27 0.74 44015 23164 54018

81 0 2909 1796 17.41 44.52 53.71 0.74 11248 99321 1780 20.10 1644 22.32 54.29 279.85 0.74 42251 24509 52487

82 0 2754 1776 17.30 43.85 53.08 0.73 10799 98401 1761 20.94 1613 22.08 54.62 273.80 0.73 41020 24975 51702

83 0 2665 1802 17.14 44.17 52.58 0.73 11282 95361 1736 20.75 1648 21.88 55.11 266.52 0.73 42796 24512 52394

84 0 2570 1802 17.17 44.45 52.56 0.73 11366 95171 1745 21.75 1654 22.30 55.95 262.21 0.73 42643 28544 55459

85 0 2397 1780 17.49 44.67 53.27 0.73 12294 99721 1818 21.95 1663 22.20 56.26 257.32 0.73 42198 30305 56618

86 0 2301 1767 18.16 46.76 55.10 0.74 12632 104591 1837 21.76 1698 22.77 58.58 263.83 0.73 43550 28809 56833

87 0 2270 1750 18.81 47.88 56.31 0.73 13361 106571 1800 22.15 1586 24.90 60.73 263.52 0.73 45127 28686 56323

88 0 2179 1776 18.97 48.85 56.35 0.72 13738 106261 1829 22.15 1597 25.42 62.27 259.44 0.73 46687 29822 57786

89 0 2232 1735 19.53 49.13 57.23 0.73 14469 112581 1885 22.08 1581 25.79 62.72 255.87 0.73 47319 32032 60188

90 0 2252 1727 20.33 50.58 59.42 0.73 15655 119821 1900 21.12 1565 26.32 64.04 261.79 0.74 51793 31347 61425

91 0 2248 1706 21.06 51.35 61.85 0.74 16263 131131 1954 19.77 1553 27.16 65.38 257.81 0.73 58104 29770 63903

92 0 2340 1702 21.53 52.18 60.33 0.73 16107 125521 1970 19.82 1556 27.82 67.10 251.00 0.72 55249 27362 63702

Table 2: Entry and Exit

Year No. of Firmsexporting in t

No. of Firms notexporting in t

No. of Firmsexporting in t

and t-1(1,1)

No. of Firmsexporting in t that did

not export in t-1(0,1)

No. of Firms notexporting in t that did

export in t-1(1,0)

No. of Firmsnot exportingin t and t-1

(0,0)

1978 1798 28531979 1722 2917 1625 97 112 28051980 1717 2966 1628 89 103 28631981 1711 2890 1617 94 102 27881982 1720 2904 1620 100 84 28201983 1688 2743 1569 119 104 26391984 1690 2622 1576 114 86 25361985 1742 2447 1602 140 78 23691986 1758 2334 1645 113 98 22361987 1726 2296 1640 86 112 21841988 1767 2238 1647 120 90 21481989 1789 2174 1685 104 86 20881990 1823 2264 1728 95 104 21601991 1862 2251 1767 95 88 21631992 1878 2301 1795 83 102 2199

Table 3: Estimating the Probability of Entry, No Plant Effects

(1) (2)LP-OLS Probit1

Last Exported in t-1 0.849*** 0.895***(0.007) (0.006)

Last Exported in t-2 0.128*** 0.396***(0.015) (0.016)

Size 0.021*** 0.098***(0.004) (0.004)

Productivity 0.009*** 0.023***(0.002) (0.005)

Multi-plant -0.015*** -0.089***(0.003) (0.008)

Wage -0.004 0.040***(0.006) (0.014)

Non-production 0.034*** 0.071**(0.011) (0.025)

Year Dummies Yes YesIndustry Dummies Yes No

1 Coefficients represent the change in probability of exporting due to a one standard deviation increase in the independent variable evaluated at the means of theother variables (or a change from 0-1 in the case of a dummy variable).

Table 4: Estimating the Probability of Entry, Plant Effects

(1) (2) (3) (4)2

LP-FE LP-FD REProbit

Last Exported in t-1 0.380*** 0.518*** 3.288*** 0.68(0.005) (0.048) (0.038)

Last Exported in t-2 0.018*** 0.168*** 1.061*** 0.40(0.006) (0.025) (0.051)

Size 0.040*** -0.016* 0.320*** 0.01(0.004) (0.009) (0.021)

Productivity 0.009*** -0.001 0.179*** 0.06(0.002) (0.004) (0.022)

Multi-plant -0.008 -0.224*** -0.07(0.006) (0.041)

Wage 0.004 0.000 0.171*** 0.02(0.008) (0.012) (0.067)

Non-production 0.036** -0.031 0.208* 0.01(0.016) (0.026) (0.112)

Year Dummies Yes Yes Yes

2 Coefficients represent the change in probability of exporting due to a one standard deviation increase in the independent variable evaluated at the means of theother variables (or a change from 0-1 in the case of a dummy variable).

Figure 1: Entry and Exit Rates

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

Year

% o

f fi

rms

Entry

Exit

Figure 2: Entry and Intensity

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

En

try

Rat

e

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Inte

nsi

ty

[0,1] Export Intensity

Figure 3: Export Entry and the Real Exchange Rate

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

year

% o

f F

irm

s E

nte

rin

g

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Rea

l Exc

han

ge

Rat

e (t

rad

e-w

eig

hte

d, 1

972=

100)

Entry Real Exchange Rate

Figure 4: Export Intensity and the Real Exchange Rate

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

Year

Rea

l Exc

han

ge

Rat

e (1

972=

100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

% o

f S

hip

men

ts E

xpo

rted

Export Intensity Real Exchange Rate