НАЦІОНАЛЬНИЙ БАНК УКРАЇНИ transition to bpm6: case of ukraine national bank...

НАЦІОНАЛЬНИЙ БАНК УКРАЇНИ

Transition to BPM6: Case of Ukraine

National Bank of Ukraine

National Bank of Ukraine

НАЦІОНАЛЬНИЙ БАНК

УКРАЇНИ

Legal framework

The Law of Ukraine on the National Bank of Ukraine (1999)

Sets the NBU responsibility for the compilation, analysis, and forecasting of the BoP (Article 7)

Allows the NBU to define forms and procedures of data reporting for the compilation of balance of payments statistics that are mandatory for all business entities (Article 67)

Joint resolution of the NBU and the Cabinet of Ministers on Balance of payments compilation, No.517 (2000)

Coordinates activities of ministries and other institutions on the compilation of external sector statistics

2


УКРАЇНИ

Data Collection System

National Bank of Ukraine International Transactions Reporting System (ITRS) Banks’ balance sheets Surveys of banks and enterprises on external loans (monthly

loan–by–loan data on stocks, transactions, schedules of repayments)

State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) Foreign trade statistics, Surveys of enterprises on

• export and import of services, • FDI, • accounts receivables and payables

Other data Travelers Survey Migrants Survey

3


УКРАЇНИ

Data Collection System

• Other data sources Ministry of Finance Ministry of Economy State Boarder Administration of Ukraine State Commission on Securities and Stock Market State Commission for Regulation of Financial Services Markets of

Ukraine “Naftogaz”

BIS statistics on other sectors deposits in foreign banks Estimates

4


УКРАЇНИ

Transition to BPM6 - History

5


УКРАЇНИ

Changes in Current Account

GOODS

Repairs on goods” were reclassified and moved from Goods to Services “Goods for processing” were reclassified from Goods to Services (based on customs

data) “Goods procured in ports by carriers” were included in “General merchandise”.

SERVICES

Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others Credit is recorded as a difference between values of finished goods made under processing

and values of goods imported for processing including services of assembling, packing, labeling, or processing by an entity that does not own the related goods (customs data)

Debit records are based on ITRS data.

Several changes have been made in classification of “Services” item: “Postal and courier services” were included into “Transportation” (previously were

recorded under “Communication services”). “Telecommunications” were included into “Telecommunications, computer, and

information services” (previously were recorded under “Communication services”). “Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others but not returned to the owner”

were excluded from “Miscellaneous business, professional, and technical services”.

6


УКРАЇНИ

Methodology Changes Effect on External Trade Data

Significant reduction of exports and imports of goods in 2014 Exports – by 8.5% ($ 4.7 bln) Imports – by 5.1% ($3.1 bln)

7

Export of goods

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

І.20

05ІІ

.200

5ІI

I.20

05ІV

.200

5І.

2006

ІІ.2

006

ІII.

2006

ІV.2

006

І.20

07ІІ

.200

7ІI

I.20

07ІV

.200

7І.

2008

ІІ.2

008

ІII.

2008

ІV.2

008

І.20

09ІІ

.200

9ІI

I.20

09ІV

.200

9І.

2010

ІІ.2

010

ІII.

2010

ІV.2

010

І.20

11ІІ

.201

1ІI

I.20

11ІV

.201

1І.

2012

ІІ.2

012

ІII.

2012

ІV.2

012

І.20

13ІІ

.201

3ІI

I.20

13ІV

.201

3І.

2014

ІІ.2

014

ІII.

2014

ІV.2

014

US

D b

ln.

Export of goods (BPM5) Export of goods (BPM6)

Import of goods

7

10

13

16

19

22

25

І.20

05ІІ

.200

5ІI

I.20

05ІV

.200

5І.

2006

ІІ.2

006

ІII.

2006

ІV.2

006

І.20

07ІІ

.200

7ІI

I.20

07ІV

.200

7І.

2008

ІІ.2

008

ІII.

2008

ІV.2

008

І.20

09ІІ

.200

9ІI

I.20

09ІV

.200

9І.

2010

ІІ.2

010

ІII.

2010

ІV.2

010

І.20

11ІІ

.201

1ІI

I.20

11ІV

.201

1І.

2012

ІІ.2

012

ІII.

2012

ІV.2

012

І.20

13ІІ

.201

3ІI

I.20

13ІV

.201

3І.

2014

ІІ.2

014

ІII.

2014

ІV.2

014

US

D b

ln.

Import of goods (BPM5) Import of goods (BPM6)


УКРАЇНИ

Methodology Changes Effect on External Trade Data

Exports of services increased by 11.8%Worsening of merchandise trade balance was compensated by improvement in balance

of services ($1.4 bln)

8

Merchandise trade

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

І.20

05ІІ

.200

5ІI

I.20

05ІV

.200

5І.

2006

ІІ.2

006

ІII.

2006

ІV.2

006

І.20

07ІІ

.200

7ІI

I.20

07ІV

.200

7І.

2008

ІІ.2

008

ІII.

2008

ІV.2

008

І.20

09ІІ

.200

9ІI

I.20

09ІV

.200

9І.

2010

ІІ.2

010

ІII.

2010

ІV.2

010

І.20

11ІІ

.201

1ІI

I.20

11ІV

.201

1І.

2012

ІІ.2

012

ІII.

2012

ІV.2

012

І.20

13ІІ

.201

3ІI

I.20

13ІV

.201

3І.

2014

ІІ.2

014

ІII.

2014

ІV.2

014

US

D b

ln.

Merchandise trade balance (BPM5)Merchandise trade balance (BPM6)

Trade in services

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

І.20

05ІІ

.20

05ІI

I.20

05ІV

.20

05І.

2006

ІІ.2

006

ІII.

2006

ІV.2

006

І.20

07ІІ

.20

07ІI

I.20

07ІV

.20

07І.

2008

ІІ.2

008

ІII.

2008

ІV.2

008

І.20

09ІІ

.20

09ІI

I.20

09ІV

.20

09І.

2010

ІІ.2

010

ІII.

2010

ІV.2

010

І.20

11ІІ

.20

11ІI

I.20

11ІV

.20

11І.

2012

ІІ.2

012

ІII.

2012

ІV.2

012

І.20

13ІІ

.20

13ІI

I.20

13ІV

.20

13І.

2014

ІІ.2

014

ІII.

2014

ІV.2

014

US

D b

ln.

Balance on services (BPM5) Balance on services (BPM6)


УКРАЇНИ

Effect on Current Account

Current account remains almost unchanged (difference in 2014 – $59 mln).

9

Current Account

-6,3

-5,3

-4,3

-3,3

-2,3

-1,3

-0,3

0,7

1,7

І.20

05ІІ

.20

05ІI

I.20

05ІV

.20

05І.

2006

ІІ.2

006

ІII.

2006

ІV.2

006

І.20

07ІІ

.20

07ІI

I.20

07ІV

.20

07І.

2008

ІІ.2

008

ІII.

2008

ІV.2

008

І.20

09ІІ

.20

09ІI

I.20

09ІV

.20

09І.

2010

ІІ.2

010

ІII.

2010

ІV.2

010

І.20

11ІІ

.20

11ІI

I.20

11ІV

.20

11І.

2012

ІІ.2

012

ІII.

2012

ІV.2

012

І.20

13ІІ

.20

13ІI

I.20

13ІV

.20

13І.

2014

ІІ.2

014

ІII.

2014

ІV.2

014

US

D b

ln.

CА balance (BPM5) СА balance (BPM6)


УКРАЇНИ

Main Changes in Financial Account - Foreign Direct Investment

PORTFOLIO AND OTHER INVESTMENT

The arrears were reclassified to the basic financial instrument under which they appeared. Inter-bank loans and arrears under these loans were reclassified from the “Loans” item to

the “Currency and Deposits” item.

10

Direct Investment Abroad, Other Capital, Liabilities to Affiliated EnterprisesDirect Investment Abroad, Other Capital, Liabilities to Affiliated Enterprises

Direct Investment, Net Liabilities, Debt Instruments, Direct Investment Enterprises in Direct Investor (reverse investment)

Direct Investment, Net Liabilities, Debt Instruments, Direct Investment Enterprises in Direct Investor (reverse investment)

The loans obtained by a resident direct investor from the nonresident direct investment enterprises

Direct investment in Ukraine, Other capital, Claims on direct investorsDirect investment in Ukraine, Other capital, Claims on direct investors

Claims on nonresident direct investors (trade credit)


УКРАЇНИ

Inter-bank loans

11

Loans (liabilities) - banks

-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,0

І.20

05ІІ

.200

5ІI

I.20

05ІV

.200

5І.

2006

ІІ.2

006

ІII.

2006

ІV.2

006

І.20

07ІІ

.200

7ІI

I.20

07ІV

.200

7І.

2008

ІІ.2

008

ІII.

2008

ІV.2

008

І.20

09ІІ

.200

9ІI

I.20

09ІV

.200

9І.

2010

ІІ.2

010

ІII.

2010

ІV.2

010

І.20

11ІІ

.201

1ІI

I.20

11ІV

.201

1І.

2012

ІІ.2

012

ІII.

2012

ІV.2

012

І.20

13ІІ

.201

3ІI

I.20

13ІV

.201

3І.

2014

ІІ.2

014

ІII.

2014

ІV.2

014

US

D b

ln.

Loans (liabilities) - banks (BPM5)Loans (liabilities) - banks (BPM6)

Currency and deposits (liabilities) - banks

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

І.20

05ІІ

.200

5ІI

I.20

05ІV

.200

5І.

2006

ІІ.2

006

ІII.

2006

ІV.2

006

І.20

07ІІ

.200

7ІI

I.20

07ІV

.200

7І.

2008

ІІ.2

008

ІII.

2008

ІV.2

008

І.20

09ІІ

.200

9ІI

I.20

09ІV

.200

9І.

2010

ІІ.2

010

ІII.

2010

ІV.2

010

І.20

11ІІ

.201

1ІI

I.20

11ІV

.201

1І.

2012

ІІ.2

012

ІII.

2012

ІV.2

012

І.20

13ІІ

.201

3ІI

I.20

13ІV

.201

3І.

2014

ІІ.2

014

ІII.

2014

ІV.2

014

US

D b

ln.

Currency and deposits (liabilities) - banks (BPM5)Currency and deposits (liabilities) - banks (BPM6)

Inter-bank loansLoansLoans Currency and DepositsCurrency and Deposits


УКРАЇНИ

New Treatments of Arrears

The arrears were reclassified to the basic financial instrument under which they appeared.

Due to significant accumulation of arrears by Ukrainian enterprises starting from 2009 main changes were in item “Loans, liabilities, other sectors, long-term”

12

Loans (liabilities) - other sectors

-3,0-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,0

І.20

05ІІ

.20

05ІI

I.20

05ІV

.20

05І.

2006

ІІ.2

006

ІII.

2006

ІV.2

006

І.20

07ІІ

.20

07ІI

I.20

07ІV

.20

07І.

2008

ІІ.2

008

ІII.

2008

ІV.2

008

І.20

09ІІ

.20

09ІI

I.20

09ІV

.20

09І.

2010

ІІ.2

010

ІII.

2010

ІV.2

010

І.20

11ІІ

.20

11ІI

I.20

11ІV

.20

11І.

2012

ІІ.2

012

ІII.

2012

ІV.2

012

І.20

13ІІ

.20

13ІI

I.20

13ІV

.20

13І.

2014

ІІ.2

014

ІII.

2014

ІV.2

014

US

D b

ln.

Loans (liabilities) - other sectors (BPM5)Loans (liabilities) - other sectors (BPM6)


УКРАЇНИ

Data Revision - External Statistics According to BPM6

Balance of Payments

Quarterly data for 2001-2004 will be revised till the end of 2015

Remittances

International Investment Position

External Debt Data

13

QQ20082008

QQ20102010

QQ20052005

QQ20052005

MM20102010


УКРАЇНИ

Dissemination

NBU website (www.bank.gov.ua) quarterly publication of the National Bank of Ukraine “Balance of

payments and external debt of Ukraine” ( in Ukrainian and English).

Data are disseminated in two formats BPM5 and BPM6 Quarterly data

monthly data in BPM6 format

14

Standard presentation Analytical presentation By sectors

Standard presentation Analytical presentation

НАЦІОНАЛЬНИЙ БАНК УКРАЇНИ transition to bpm6: case of ukraine national bank...

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