© ukcip 2006 ukcp09 and the west midlands region west midlands regional climate change adaptation...
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UKCP09and the West Midlands region
West Midlands Regional
Climate Change Adaptation Partnership, 8th July 2009
Chris Thomas, UK Climate Impacts Programme
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Outline
Introduction to the new projections
What do they tell us?
What are the impacts?
How do we respond?
UKCP09 and the West Midlands
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So... What’s new?
Improved modelling – now includes carbon cycle feedback and takes uncertainties (both parameters and modelling) into account
Probabilistic data – considered more robust to work with a range of possible outcomes, rather than a single number
Much more data – more spatial and temporal detail Improved accessibility and delivery – User Interface –
customised outputs to explore your choice of variables. Also user guidance available, training programme
Introduction to the new projections
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Dealing with uncertaintyAnswer 1 Answer 2
“42°C” No information on uncertaintyVery acceptable to someMay be misunderstood as “no uncertainty”
Uncertainty is explicitMay be unwelcome – much more work requiredBetter decisions possible
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?
VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY
Climate variable
Strength of evidence (Probability)
Probabilistic data
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Spatial and temporal
25km grid Predefined areas
Administrative River basins
More time periods –
overlapping
Much more data
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Improved accessibility and delivery
2080s Mean summer temperatures, medium emissions, 50% probability level
2080s Hottest daily temperature, High emissions, 90% percentile
Customisable output
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UKCP09 layered approach
Communicators
Researcher / Scientist
Decision Makers
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Broad differences compared with UKCIP02 (UK wide) Projected changes in mean temperature are generally
somewhat greater than UKCIP02
Summer reduction in rainfall is not as great as UKCIP02 Increases in winter rainfall broadly similar to UKCIP02,
but with a different geographical pattern A few grid squares are projected to be drier in UKCP09 –
in UKCIP02, all areas were projected to be wetter
What do they tell us?
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Summer average temperature in the West Midlands: significant increases over the decades to the 2080s
West Midlandscentral estimate
Medium emissions
Increased Tourism
Increased Heat stress
Infrastructure risks
Risks to biodiversity
Heat related deaths
Risk to Food Security
The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than 6.1ºC
DEFRA, 2009
But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by
up to 10ºC
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Summer rainfall in the West Midlands: significant summer decreases
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Reduced stream flow and water
quality
Increased drought
Subsidence
Decreased crop yields
Serious water stress
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -43% and very unlikely to be higher than +6%
DEFRA, 2009
West Midlandscentral estimate
Medium emissions
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Winter rainfall in the West Midlands: significant increases
Increased winter flooding
Increased subsidence
Risks to urban drainage
Severe Transport disruption
Risks of national Infrastructure
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +3% and very unlikely to be higher than +39%
DEFRA, 2009
West Midlandscentral estimate
Medium Emissions
But rainfall on the wettest day of the year could increase
by up to 30%
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Or... Where will the impacts be felt?
West Midlands landscape: conurbation and countryside Built up urban areas, high density housing
Social and economic impacts – health impacts 70% agriculture
Impact of changing climate on crops – opportunities? Landscape and biodiversity
Nationally important, but also fragmented habitats
Transport infrastructure – regional and national links Explore vulnerability to current weather: road and rail
Population density – water quality and availability
What are the impacts?
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Decisions, decisions...
Planning to adapt – what kind of decisions do we need to make? What the climate and weather will be doing The sensitivity of the system to climate and weather variables Our own attitude to risk
Using UKCP09 is going to be more challenging than applying information from UKCIP02 , especially at the more detailed levels
BUT it will be worth it – probabilistic information allows more robust decision making, as we can be more aware of the range of possibilities and can decide what level of risk we are prepared to take
How do we respond?
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Online support and Training Online support
Dedicated website – start with http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk User Guidance User Interface manual Help Desk – FAQs – use and contribute!
Training Projections in Practice (PiP). Go to www.ukcip.org.uk to
register your interest in regional training events (Autumn 09) eLearning
Communities of practice Webinars, podcasts Online resources to develop skills
Exploring UKCP09
