© university of missouri-columbia the role of governance stability in migration pamela (pam) e...
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© University of Missouri-Columbia
The Role of Governance Stability in Migration
Pamela (Pam) E Kelrick & Tom G. Johnson
Liaison officer (Rural Policy Learning Commons)
Truman School of Public Affairs
University of Missouri-Columbia
Governance stability
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In this study, ‘governance stability’ refers to the quality of political and social
functionality in a society.
Governance & international migration?
Governance institutions are increasingly confronted by emergent influences on international migration
Globalization (Grugel and Piper, 2007)Security (Hanson, 2010; Ibrahim, 2005; Taureck, 2006; Weiner 1992)Human rights (Crush 2000; IOM 2009)Climate Change (IOM 2003 #3; UNFPA/IIED 2009)Preferential trade agreements (Orefice, 2012)
Yet…the focus has been to explain international migration dynamics in many countries using only economic factors. (Betts 2008)
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Why governance? Inclusive image of a nation and emerging
influences Government, strong political influencers, institutions, organizations
Sovereignty Nations are the standard political unit to define border security, establish
and enforce migration policy National institutions and networks (e.g. unions, trade organizations,
military) are stakeholders and influencers
Quality barometer National migration policy and regulation is responsive to political and
social forces Exploiting the variation of governance may reveal the level of influence (if
any) on international migration
Accessible and actionable If governance influences migration, then policy implications are
accessible and actionable.
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Not all governance is created equal…great variation exists
16.818.319.320.5 22 24.6 27 32.936.239.242.1 48 49.3 51 56.260.161.570.271.472.5 81 84.488.2
-0.015
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
Emigration per capita immigration per capita
Governance Stability where 1=stable and 10=unstable
Governance Stability versus Migration for Countries Worldwide
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N= 64 N= 49
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* Using Fund for Peace Stability Index
This Study
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Cross-section time series with random effects to determine the influence of governance stability on immigration and emigration in
30 countries.
MODELS & RESULTS
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Comparison of governance metrics that affect emigration and
immigration
Data Sources
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TERMS SOURCES
DEPENDENT Emigration per capita UN, Econ and Soc Affairs,
Pop Div.Immigration per capita UN, Econ and Soc Affairs,
Pop Div.INDEPENDENT Governance Stability Metrics Fund for Peace – 6
variablesCONTROL Total labor per capita World Bank
Annual data (2006-2009)
Governance Stability Metrics
FFP Failed States Index Indicator
Indicator Description
Presence of group grievanceHistory of aggrieved communal groups (past and present); institutionalized political exclusion
Legitimacy of the state Level of corrupting activity by elite groups, resistance to transparency
Public servicesBasic services to citizens, including public safety (policing), health, education, sanitation, and transportation
Human rights and rule of lawAuthoritarian, dictatorial or military rule at the expense of democratic institutions and constitutional practices
Security apparatusA stable security apparatus operates with a monopoly on the use of legitimate force
Factionalized elitesFragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions such that the country leadership does not represent the entire citizenry
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*Fund for Peace Stability Index 6 of 12 indicators
Generic Model
2 Model sets for comparison:
Emigration model (6 versions): Y1 = emigration per capita
Immigration model (6 versions): Y2 = immigration per capita
Yit = α + β1Xit + β2Xit + β3Xit + εit
X1 = lag term (emigration OR immigration)
X2 = governance metric (6 versions from previous slide)
X3 = Total labor per capita
ε = error term
where i= event and t = year of event
- All independent terms are lagged 1 year
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Emigration Model Set
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MODEL: Human rights and rule of law
Coefficient P-value
Emigration per capita 0.901 0.000****Total labor per capita 0.001 0.781
Human rights and rule of law -0.00015 0.036*R2 (N=90) 0.827
5 models with presence of group grievance, security apparatus, legitimacy of the government, public
services, presence of factional elites
• No governance stability metrics were statistically significant.
• Emigration per capita was statistically significant in all of these models, with R-sq values = 0.82
Statistical significance * ≤ 0.05, ** ≤ 0.01, *** ≤ 0.001, **** ≤ 0.0001; S.E. robust
Immigration Model Set
All Models Model a Model b Model c Model d Model e Model f
lag immigration per cap 0.788**** 0.729**** 0.709**** 0.739**** 0.778**** 0.773****
total labor per capita 0.0171*** 0.013*** 0.012** 0.016** 0.015*** 0.017****group grievance -0.0002legitimacy of the state -0.0003**public services -0.0006**human rights /rule of law -0.0004*security apparatus -.00024**factionalized elites -0.0002*R-sq .789 .794 .799 .795 .791 .791
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Statistical significance * ≤ 0.05, ** ≤ 0.01, *** ≤ 0.001, **** ≤ 0.0001; S.E. robust
Summary results – comparison
Emigrationlegitimacy of the statepublic serviceshuman rights /rule of lawsecurity apparatusfactionalized elitesgroup grievance
Immigrationlegitimacy of the statepublic serviceshuman rights /rule of lawsecurity apparatusfactionalized elitesgroup grievance
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* Bold variables were statistically significant
Summary results – conclusions Governance stability is important in international
migration, but in different ways for emigration and immigration
Emigration: lots can and must go wrong before anyone will leave
Immigration: many factors are relevant to encourage immigration these factors are all relatively equivalent in influence
Follow up: What happens at the subnational scale? Does this dynamic hold for longer periods of time? If we categorized the countries based on ranked stability,
would the results look similar?
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Policy implications
Managing international migration is not simply an issue of economic condition, regulation, job opportunities, or status.
Emigration: governance stability is not particularly influential Other factors (perhaps economic) are more influential
Immigration: Governance stability (real or perceived) may be a factor in
decision-making Other factors (perhaps economic) are more influential
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Limitations
National scale may not be relevant Only four years of available data available (2006-
09) Extrapolation of results to other countries is not
advised. Governance is not the same as government Confuses migration policy (national level) with
implementation (usually at regional/local level) Measurement error (perpetual nemesis of
studying migration)
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© University of Missouri-Columbia
Thank you
Pamela (Pam) Kelrick
Doctoral StudentTruman School of Public Affairs
Graduate Research Assistant
Community Policy Analysis Center (CPAC)
Liaison OfficerRural Policy Learning Commons