Name_________________________________________ Period_______

Skills in BiologyHypotheses and PredictionsScientific knowledge grows through a process called the scientific method. This process involves observation and measurement, hypothesizing and predicting, and planning and executing investigations designed to test formulated hypotheses. A scientific hypothesis is a tentative explanation for an observation, which is capable of being tested by experimentation. Hypotheses lead to predictions about the system involved and they are accepted or rejected on the basis of findings arising from the investigation. Rejection of the hypothesis might lead to new alternative explanations for the observations. Acceptance of the hypothesis as a valid explanation is not necessarily permanent: explanations may be rejected at a later date in light of new findings.

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Accept or reject

Based on a hypothesis, predictions (expected, repeatable outcomes) can be generated about the behavior of the system. Predictions may be made on any aspect of the material of interest, e.g. how different variables (factors) relate to each other.

Making Predictions

Investigations are planned so that the predictions about the system made in the hypothesis can be tested. Investigations may be laboratory or field based.

Designing an investigation

A hypothesis based on observations is used to generate the null hypothesis (Ho); the hypothesis of no difference or no effect. Hypotheses are expressed in the null form for the purposes of statistical testing. Ho may be rejected in favor of accepting the alternative hypothesis, HA.

Generating a Null Hypothesis

Features of a sound hypothesis: It is based on observations and

prior knowledge of the system It offers an explanation for an

observation. It refers to only one

independent variable. It is written as a definite

statement and not as a question It is testable by experimentation It leads to predictions about the

system.

Formulating a Hypothesis

The predictions are tested out in the practical part of an investigation.

Testing the Prediction

The observations lead to the formation of questions about the system being studied.

Asking Questions

Making ObservationsThese may involve the observation of behaviors in wild populations, physiological measurements made during previous experiments or accidental results obtained when seeking answers to completely unrelated questions.

Developing HypothesesAs questions are asked, scientists attempt to answer them by proposing possible explanations. Those proposed explanations are called hypotheses. A hypothesis tentatively explains something observed. It proposes an answer to a question. Consider question 5, preceding. One hypothesis based on this question might be “If spines on cacti prevent animals from eating the cacti, then cacti will have spines.” The hypothesis has suggested a possible explanation for the observed spines.

A scientifically useful hypothesis must be testable and falsifiable . To satisfy the requirement that a hypothesis is falsifiable, it must be possible that the test results do not support the explanation. In our example, if spines are removed from test cacti and the plants are not eaten by animals then the hypothesis has been falsified. Even though the hypothesis can be falsified, it can never be proved to be true. The evidence from an investigation can only provide support for the hypothesis. In our example, if cacti without spines were eaten, the hypothesis has not been proved, but has been supported by evidence. Other explanations still must be excluded, and new evidence from additional experiments and observations might falsify this hypothesis at a later date. In science seldom does a single test provide results that clearly support or falsify a hypothesis. In most cases the evidence serves to modify the hypothesis or the conditions of the experiment.

Science is a way of knowing about the natural world that involves testing hypotheses or explanations. The scientific method can be applied to the unusual and the commonplace. You use the scientific method when you investigate why your once white socks are now blue. Your hypothesis might be that your blue jeans and socks were washed together, an assertion that can be tested through observations and experimentation.

Students often think that controlled experiments are the only way to test a hypothesis. The test of a hypothesis may include experimentation, additional observations or the synthesis of information from a variety of sources. Many scientific advances have relied on other procedures and information to test hypotheses. For example, James Watson and Francis Crick developed a model that was their hypothesis for the structure of DNA. Their model could only be supported if the accumulated data from a number of other scientists were consistent with the model. Actually, their first model (hypothesis) was falsified by the work of Rosalind Franklin. Their final model was tested and supported not only by the ongoing work of Franklin and Maurice Wilkins but also by research previously published by Erwin Chargaff and others. Watson and Crick won the Nobel Prize for their scientific work. They did not perform a controlled experiment in the laboratory but tested their powerful hypothesis through the use of existing evidence from other research. Methods other than experimentation are acceptable in testing hypotheses. Think about other areas of science that require comparative observations and the accumulation of data from a variety of sources, all of which must be consistent with and support hypotheses or else be inconsistent and falsify hypotheses.

The information in your biology textbook is often thought of as a collection of facts, well understood and correct. It is true that much of the knowledge of biology has been derived through scientific investigations, has been thoroughly tested, and is supported by strong evidence. However, scientific knowledge is always subject to novel experiments and new technology, any aspect of which may result in modification of our ideas and a better understanding of biological phenomena. The structure of the cell membrane is an example of the self-correcting nature of science. Each model of the membrane has been modified as new results have negated one explanation and provided support for an alternative explanation.

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Exercise 1.1Questions and Hypotheses

This exercise explores the nature of scientific questions and hypotheses. A hypothesis offers a tentative explanation to questions generated by observations. Hypotheses are often constructed in a form that allows them to be tested statistically. For every hypothesis, there is a corresponding null hypothesis; a hypothesis against the prediction. Predictions are tested with laboratory and field experiments and carefully focused observations. For a hypothesis to be accepted it should be possible for anyone to test the predictions with the same methods and get a similar result each time.

Part A—Asking QuestionsScientists are characteristically curious and creative individuals whose curiosity is directed toward

understanding the natural world. They use their study of previous research or personal observations of natural phenomena as a basis for asking questions about the underlying causes or reasons for these phenomena. For a question to be pursued by scientists, the phenomenon must be well defined and testable. The elements must be measurable and controllable.

There are limits to the ability of science to answer question. Science is only one of many ways of knowing about the world in which we live. Consider, for example, this question: Do excessively high temperatures cause people to behave immorally? Can a scientist investigate this question? Temperature is certainly a well-defined, measurable and controllable factor, but morality of behavior is not scientifically measurable. We probably could not even reach a consensus on the definition. Thus, there is no experiment that can be performed to test the question. Which of the following do you think can be answered scientifically? Place a check beside the questions you think can be answered scientifically.

_______1. Does binge drinking cause more brain damage in teenagers than in adults?

_______2. Is genetically modified corn safe to eat?

_______3. Do children who wash their hands often and bathe daily have a greater risk of asthma than those who

wash their hands less often and bathe every other day?

_______4. Should endangered species be cloned to prevent extinction?

_______5. What is the function of spines on cacti?

_______6. Did the 19 year old college student develop ulcers because of his stress and fast food diet?

How did you decide which questions can be answered scientifically?__________________________

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Part B – Developing HypothesesBefore scientific questions can be answered, they must first be converted to hypotheses, which can be tested. For each of the following questions, write an explanatory hypothesis. Recall that the hypothesis is a statement that explains the phenomenon you are interested in investigating. For the purposes of our class, you will need to try to state the hypothesis as an “if…then” statement.

1. Does regular interaction with pets improve the health of the elderly?

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2. What effect do high concentrations of the industrial pollutant PCB (polychlorinated biphenyl) have on killer

whale reproduction?

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Scientists often propose and reject a variety of hypotheses before they design a single test. Which of the following statements would be useful as scientific hypotheses and could be investigated using scientific procedures? Give the reason for each answer by stating whether it could possibly be falsified and what factors are measurable and controllable.

1. The number of fungiform papillae (bumps on the tongue) affects taste sensitivity.

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2. Inflated self-esteem in young males increases the odds of aggression.

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3. Exposure to environmental pollutants produces feminization in newly hatched male

alligators.

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Exercise 1.2Designing Experiments to Test Hypotheses

The most creative aspect of science is designing a test of your hypothesis that will provide unambiguous evidence to falsify or support a particular explanation. Scientists often design, critique and modify a variety of experiments and other tests before they commit the time and resources to perform a single experiment. In this exercise, you will follow the procedure for experimentally testing hypotheses, but it is important to remember that other methods, including observation and the synthesis of other sources of data, are acceptable in scientific investigations. An experiment involves defining variables, outlining a procedure and determining controls to be used as the experiment is performed. Once the experiment is defined, the investigator predicts the outcome of the experiment based on the hypothesis.

Read the following description of a scientific investigation of the effects of sulfur dioxide on soybean reproduction. Then in Lab Study A you will determine the types of variables involved, and in Lab Study B, the experimental procedure for this experiment and others.

Investigation of the Effect of Sulfur Dioxide on Soybean ReproductionAgricultural scientists were concerned about the effect of air pollution, sulfur dioxide in particular, on soybean production in fields adjacent to coal powered plants. Based on initial investigations, they proposed that sulfur dioxide in high concentrations would reduce reproduction in soybeans. They designed an experiment to test this hypothesis (figure 1.1). In this experiment, 48 soybean plants, just beginning to produce flowers, were divided into two groups, treatment and no treatment. The 24 treated plants were divided into four groups of six. One group of 6 treated plants was placed in a fumigation chamber and exposed to 0.6 ppm of sulfur dioxide for 4 hours to simulate sulfur dioxide emissions from a power plant. The experiment was repeated on the remaining three treated groups. The no treatment plants were placed similarly in groups of 6 in a second fumigation chamber and simultaneously exposed to filtered air for 4 hours. Following the experiment, all plants were returned to the greenhouse. When the beans matured, the number of bean pods, the number of seeds per pod, and the weight of the pods were determined for each plant.

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Part A—Determining the VariablesRead the description of each category of variable; then identify the variable described in the preceding investigation. The variables in an experiment must be clearly defined and measurable. The investigator will identify and define dependent, independent and controlled variables for a particular experiment.

The Dependent VariableWithin the experiment, one variable will be measured or counted or observed in response to the experimental conditions. This variable is the dependent variable. For soybeans, several dependent variables are measured, all of which provide information about reproduction. What are they?______________________________________________________________________________________________

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The Independent VariableThe scientist will choose one variable, or experimental condition, to manipulate. This variable is considered the most important variable by which to test the investigator’s hypothesis and is called the independent variable. What was the independent variable in the investigation of the effect of sulfur dioxide on soybean reproduction?________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Can you suggest other variables that the investigator might have changed that would have had an effect on the

dependent variables?____________________________________________________________________________

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Although other factors, such as light, temperature, time and fertilizer, might affect the dependent variables, only one independent variable is usually chosen. Why is it important to have only one independent variable? __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Why is it acceptable to have more than one dependent variable?________________________________________

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The Controlled Variable or ConstantsConsider the variables that you identified as alternative independent variables. Although they are not part of the hypothesis being tested in this investigation, they would have significant effects on the outcome of this experiment. These variables must, therefore, be kept constant during the course of the experiment. They are known as the controlled variables. The underlying assumption in experimental design is that the selected independent variable is the one affecting the dependent variable. This is only true if all other variables are controlled.

What are the controlled variables in this experiment?

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What variables other than those you may have already listed can you now suggest?

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Part B—Choosing or Designing the ProcedureThe procedure is the stepwise method, or sequence of step, to be performed for the experiment. It should be recorded in a laboratory notebook before initiating the experiment and any exceptions or modifications should be noted during the experiment. The procedures may be designed from research published in scientific journals, through collaboration with colleagues in the lab or other institutions, or by means of one’s own novel and creative ideas. The process of outlining the procedure includes determining control treatment(s), levels of treatments and numbers of replications.

Level of TreatmentThe value set for the independent variable is called the level of treatment. For this experiment, the value was determined based on previous research and preliminary measurements of sulfur dioxide emissions. The scientists may select a range of concentrations from no sulfur dioxide to an extremely high concentration. The levels should be based on knowledge of the system and the biological significance of the treatment level. What was the level of treatment in the soybean experiment?____________________________________________________________________________________________

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ReplicationScientific investigations are not valid if the conclusions drawn from them are based on one experiment with one or two individuals. Generally, the same procedure will be repeated several times (replication), providing consistent results. Notice that scientists do not expect exactly the same results inasmuch as individuals and their responses will vary. Results from replicated experiments are usually averaged and may be further analyzed using statistical tests. Describe replication in the soybean experiment. _____________________________________________________________________________________________

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Control or Control GroupThe experimental design includes a control in which the independent variable is held at an established level or is omitted. The control or control treatment serves as a benchmark that allows the scientist to decide whether the predicted effect is really due to the independent variable. In the case of the soybean experiment, what was the control treatment?

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What is the difference between the control and the controlled variables discussed previously?

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Part C—Writing HypothesesWhen rigorous science is conducted, experimental design generally includes a Null Hypothesis as well as Alternative Hypotheses. A Null Hypothesis is one that can be tested statistically and generally states that there is no effect on the experimental organisms when exposed to the treatment. The Alternative Hypothesis predicts what the investigator thinks will happen in the experiment. The prediction is always based on the particular experiment designed to test a specific hypothesis. Hypotheses/Predictions are written in the form of if/then statements: “If [the independent variable] does this, then the [dependent variable] does this” For example, “if cactus spines prevent herbivory, then removal of the spines will result in cacti being eaten by animals.” Making a prediction provides a critical analysis of the experimental design. If the predictions are not clear, the procedure can be modified before beginning the experiment. For the soybean experiment, the idea being tested was: “Exposure to sulfur dioxide reduces reproduction.” State the Null Hypothesis and an Alternative Hypothesis.Null (HO):

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Alternative (HA):

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To evaluate the results of the experiment, the investigator always returns to the prediction. If the results match the prediction, then the hypothesis is supported . If the results do not match the prediction, then the hypothesis is rejected. Either way, the scientist has increased knowledge of the process being studied. Many times the rejection of a hypothesis can provide more information than confirmation, since the ideas and data must be critically evaluated in light of new information. In the soybean experiment, the scientist may learn that the prediction is true (sulfur dioxide does reduce reproduction at the concentration tested). As the next step, the scientist may now wish to identify the particular level at which the effect is first demonstrated.

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Calculation of Descriptive Statistics

1. A survey of the number of spores found on the fronds of a fern plant was conducted. The data is listed below:

Raw data: Number of spores per frond64 60 64 62 68 66 6369 70 63 70 70 63 6271 69 59 70 66 61 7067 64 63 64

Calculate each of the following—show work for all!a. Mean

b. Median

c. Mode

d. Range

e. Standard deviation

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Practice

A student investigated the variation in the length of bivalve shells at two locations on a rocky shore.

State the Null Hypothesis:

State an Alternative Hypothesis:

Data CollectedShell Length in mmGroup A Group B

46 2350 2845 4145 3163 2657 3365 3573 2155 3879 3062 3659 3871 4568 2877 42

Complete the table below:Group A Group B

MeanMedianModeRangeSE**95% CI

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Show ALL WORK!!!

**CI = mean ± (SE x 2)Based on the statistics on the previous page, should you accept or reject the Null Hypothesis? Explain.

Based on the statistics calculated on the previous page, what can you conclude?

What does this data and the statistics tell us about the two sets of bivalves and their environment?

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The Chi Square Test

This is a statistical test used to compare observed results with expected results. The calculation generates a X2

value. The higher the value of X2 the greater the difference between the observed and expected results.

Use this test when:The measurements relate to the number of individuals in a particular categoryThe observed number can be compared with an expected number which is calculated from theory

How to use a Chi Squared Test:1. State the Null Hypothesis

a. This statement says that there is no statistical difference between the observed and expected results

2. Calculate the expected valuea. This may be the mean of the expected valuesb. When you study inheritance, you would add up the expected values and apply a ratio

3. Calculate the Chi Squared value

∑ (o−e ) 2e

Where O = observed valueE = Expected value

4. Determine the degrees of freedoma. This is calculated from the formula n-1 where n = the number of sets of resultsb. This basically measures how many classes of results can freely vary in their numbers. For example,

if you were tossing two coins at a time and had an accurate count of how many 2 heads and 2 tails tosses were observed, then you already know how many of the 100 tosses ended up as mixed head-tails, so the third measurement provides no additional information.

5. Compare the Chi Squared value against a table of critical values.a. Refer to the degrees of freedomb. Look up the chi-square value you calculated on the table below. c. Use the table to determine the p value.

6. Decide whether to accept or reject the Null Hypothesis.a. If the p value is greater than .05 then you would accept (fail to reject) your null hypothesis .b. If the p value is .05 or less then you would reject your null hypothesis.

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7. Draw a conclusion.a. The Null hypothesis states that there is no difference between your observed and expected results. b. If p ≤ .05 then Null Hypothesis is Rejected.

i. This means that if the difference between your observed data and your expected data would occur due to chance alone fewer than 1 time in 20 (p=.05) then there is a 95% chance that the differences between your observed and your expected data are due to some other factor beyond chance.

ii. This means there is a statistically significant difference between what you expected and what you observed and you would reject your null hypothesis.

c. If p>.05 then the Null Hypothesis is Accepted.i. This means that there is no statistical difference between the observed and expected

results. ii. Any difference between the observed and expected results are due to random events and

doesn’t represent any sort of biological phenomenon.

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Chi Square PracticeNaked mole rats are a burrowing rodent native to parts of East Africa. They have a complex social structure in which only one female (the queen) and one to three males reproduce, while the rest of the members of the colony function as workers. Mammal ecologists suspected that they had an unusual male to female ratio. They counted the numbers of each sex in one colony.

Sex Number of AnimalsFemale 52Male 34

State the Null Hypothesis:

What is the sex ratio you would EXPECT in the population?

Calculate the Chi Squared Value below:Sex Observed Expected o-e (o-e)2 (o-e)2/eFemale 52Male 34

Total

X2 ___________

What are the degrees of freedom? _________

Based on the degrees of freedom and calculated Chi Squared value what is the p value? (LOOK IT UP ON THE TABLE) ___________

Properly state your conclusion below based on the p value.

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Chi Squared PracticeYou have been wandering about on a seashore and you have noticed that a small snail (the flat periwinkle) seems to live only on seaweeds of various kinds. You decide to investigate whether the animals prefer certain kinds of seaweed by counting numbers of animals on different species. You end up with the following data:

Type of Seaweed Number of animals on each kind of seaweed

Serrated wrack 45Bladder wrack 38Egg wrack 10Spiral wrack 5Other algae 2

TOTAL 100

State the Null Hypothesis:

What proportions would you EXPECT to see of each seaweed?

Calculate the Chi Squared Value below:Seaweed Observed Expected o-e (o-e)2 (o-e)2/eSerrated wrack 45Bladder wrack 38Egg wrack 10Spiral wrack 5Other algae 2

Total 100

X2 ___________

What are the degrees of freedom? _________

Based on the degrees of freedom and calculated Chi Squared value what is the p value? (LOOK IT UP ON THE TABLE) ___________

Properly state your conclusion below based on the p value.

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