0 8 date / n teth purpose of this report is to attempt to answer the above questi4ns. ,however, in...
TRANSCRIPT
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DOCIPOSIT RISOBIC.
20 167 320 IC 011 210
T8 OR Smith., Jeanne,
TLE Enrollment Data and Future Projections: Oglala.SiouxCommunity College, 19,2-1984.. , -
ST/TUT/ON Oglala Sioux Community Coll.,, Pine Ridge, N. Saki.-.0 8 DATE / Jun 78 . .
N TE . 21p.; Not available in hard copy dote to pccr printquality of original document
!DRS PRICEDESCRIPTORS
MF-$0.83 Plus Postage HC Not Available-from EDRS*Adult Education; *American Indians; *CoasamityColleges; Employment Picgtais; *AntollmentInfluences; *Enrollment Projectrens; Enrollment'Trends; Higher Education;,-Postsecondary,Edacation;,-*Student Characteristics; Tribes
IDENTIFIERS Oglala Sioux (Tribe) ; *Cglala Sioux Cdmmunity CollegeSD
ABSTRACTSince Fall of 1973, the population of Oglala Sioux
Communit/ College has remained fairly constant, averaging 339students in the fall and 380 in the spring. In Spring, 15.784;64percent of the student body attended part time, with an average of 68percent being female. Although the number cf graduates has increasedfrom 7 in 1974 to 24 in 1978, the retention rate has dropped from 76
percent in 1975-to 57 percent. Enrollment is strongly influenced bylocal employment patterns. Government, state, and tribal programscause sudden changes in enrollment when they require employees totake classes. Availability of financial aid programs and employers'support of their employees taking college courses are alsoinfluences. Because of the shifts in both the financial aid programsand the employment training Picture, enrollment projection isdifficult. Many young people leave the reservation and nc largecollege age population boom can be predicted. Eased on projectedreservation growth, however, student enrollment should be 386 in1980-81 and 406 in 1983-84. Protection from unexpected enrollmentfluctuations can be provided by working closer with employers,providing courses to compliment federal programs, and directingrecruiting efforts at both high school counselors and students.(DS)
***************************************4*******************************Reproductions supplied by EDPS are the best that can be made
.* from the original document.**********************************************************************
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T*..../6.
arm e,to sw
M
Enro 11 men+ Data_
Fu,fu.re 1:1"oj ect O(tSO
"PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THISMATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED ElY
TO, THE EciticArioNAL RESOURCESINFORMATION tENTER,1CRIC) ANTIUSERS OrTHE ERIC SYSTEM " Olpak
COY,k rq.0 Coite.9e1972. 11
U S DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH,EDUCATION kINELFARENATIONAL INSTITUTE OF
EDUCATION
THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRO.DUCE() EXACTLY AS RECEIVEU .FROMTHE PERSON OR ORGANIZATiON:OR IGIN-AT IND IT POINTS OF VIEW OA OPINIONSSTATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRE-SENT OFFICIAL NATIONAL INSTITUTE OFEDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY,
4
4
,--JeartyLeJune., I 'I 7 7
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INTRODUCTION
In preparing for accreditation candidacy, the Oglala Sioux
ComMunity College-must'look closely at previous "student- enrollment
statistics to help us project the future growth of the College al§...
well as t 'better understand who Oglala Sioux Commtinity College..
students aye. We need to learn: '\
1.)_ What have the enrollment figures been for the College,
and,what trends do they reflect?
2.) What do reservation censnc figures imply for the growth
of the Oglala Sioux Community College?
3.) What growth can the College reasonably
next. 'six years?
expect in the
Th purpose of this report is to attempt to answer the above
questi4ns. ,However, in the view this researcher, this report
- raises, as many questions as it answers. A list of suggestions
for further research iS therefore included at the end\of this re-
Tort.
3
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1:tio: 4,11* 4 I.
2,
WRAF HAVE PAST ENi6LLMENT FIGURES BEW
Because the College kept only minimal statistics on the
student population from its inception in 1970 until the fall of
1973, acid because of a fire in June df.1975, some early College
popUlation figures are not avaiTable. However, we do have some
early data, and records from the fall .Of 1972 until the present
have been systematically kept and do reflect an accurate picture'
of the. student body.
TheAfollowing chart, looks at 'fall and winter 'courses as one
group, and summer courses as a separate, smaller group. Total
pqrollmemt figures, percentages of Tull and part-time students,
male and female students, retention rates,Juld age groupings are
all, included on the chart! The mean for each column is given at
the bottom ,of the yhart.
Although several tests ofi'significanCe were applied to see
If apparent changes in,the percentages of full and part-time stU-1
dents, FTF, rates and retention rates were significant, none were
significant at anything lower than the 49% level. Thus, the ob-
servati,ons 'belowmust remain' at the con jezture level. However,
even on .the Conjecture level, interesting trends should be men-
tioned.
1 The, population, allhoun:h fluctuating, has remained4'
4alrbHconstant since Fall 1973. We averaged 339 studentseach fall and 380 each ..pring. We may have had slightgrowth, hut only --;I i;011. In fact, the 1Fall 1973, Fall1976, and Spritl 17`,- enrollment figures arcs all thesame 3G8 .!;tuck-nIH! The highest, enrollment occurred in1-rtjn'':, 1977. (455 f11(1,wtH) :tlid the lowest way; in Full.
1971 (2(;1 -:rhdeut).
2 . We have hu ; ;ens ru re:e.;e i n t he percent. o f rilltime 5-J-tadent:: and a c(,o'resimflidln!2-, decrease in they presentor pari-time sindeuts. ()lir current full-Limo enrollment,3(=i, is 8 th,reenlui,,eiTini r. abov(e,the mean, while ourcurr(,:ntpurt-lime enrollment, 61c,: is 8 percentage pointsbelow the mean.. 4
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CHART I
OGLALA SIOUX COMMUNITY COLLEGE
STUDENT STATISTICS
Enrollment % Full 1 Part FTE At- Retention Grad- .'% 1571 20- 125- 130- 135- %40- 145+ :I,
ptal Time Time tem.pted Rate liates 19 24. 29 34 1 39, c4 t li
a 1972 348 19% 81% 184 N.A. , N.A. N.A. N.A, N.A. N.A, N.A, N.A. 61 39
:ln8'1973 393 211 79% '204 N.A. . N.,A, N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 67 33
Li 1973 368 .34% 66% 222 .76% , N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 56' 44
gnE,1974 303 23% 77% 184 70% , 7 Mean Age: 28 68 37.
Li .1974 ( 261 . 247 76% 161 637, Mean Age: 29 72 IS
ring 1975 337 24% 76% 201 72% 8 Mean Age: 28 6 35
11 19-75 366 23% 7.7% 216 55% 2 . 21 31 17 14 7 6 5 41
i.:11,r, lt') 436 267 74% 310 46% 19 2
,
`;26 31 14 17 6 4 62 38
1,1 1976
qnp, 1977
368.
445
417,
35%
59%
65%
275 ,
295
62%
53% '19
4
2
30
21
30
28
.18
19
10
13
5
9
4.
9
61
62
39
3811 1.977 ''321
q'llf, 1978 3031/,
i((,/,
'69%
647
221
295
57%
NA 24
3
2'
25
'29
30
24
16
18
12
7
7
10
7 76
1M __A 68
L4
3i
in: 30__............. . . - _
2S! 12, 1 231 61.57. 2.5 25 29 17 12 7
76.6 6;435!
---
[I MO'.12, :.................
fl9 35% /17+
213 63% 3 25 30, 17 12 6 6 64 6
dng.:loan: 380 2(3% 737, 248 60%, 2 25 28 17 12 8
..6
8 65 135
SUM ER KIRK (INCOMPLET,DATA)
;11.117 1974
wi'n: 197
nlor 1976
iaer 1977
.
123
li)
1
1
ti
+-
. ; i6 2432.
30-
1
66%
. ,
68
147.
80. 1
.
,
70
347 1 66% 1% 24% ,26% 25% 10% 1,07 37 82', 18
tn: 131 11 744 261.
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3. Opr. full-time equivalency rate "(FTE) has had agenera1ihcrease from a low of 162. in Fall 1974 to a high of310 in Spring 1976. The current figure- oT '295 is 6Apoints above the meInt
4. We' have had a steady increase in the number of graduatesfrom a low of 7 in 1974 to 24 in 1978.
5. The age group8 from which we draw students have remainedconstant in the 1519, 20-4; 25 -29, 30-34 age groupS,have decreased in the 35-39 age group and have increased.in the 40-44, 45 + age groups.
6. We have had a consistently largerj number of female students(mea-ri. 64%) ranging from 56% inof 1977.
1973 to 82% in the,summer
g
7. Our retention rate appears to be dropping f)om a. high of76% in Fa1 1 "-4973 to to low.of'46% in Spring 1970. The mostrecently. recorded rate was 57%.
ENROLLMENT FLUCTUATIONI
I was particularly puzzled by the appar;ently random fluctuation
in. College enrollment figures'from 1973-78. Discussions with past
Registrar and currentl Aide Director, Sissy Eagle Bull,
however3revealed that there are often reasons for the 'swings in
enrollment.
1973 3G8
piing 1974 303
Fall 1974 261 *Public Service Careers & New Careers ended.Ty.aineeS in hoT.4 progra wore required totake cUsses.
Spring 1975 337 '
Fall 1975 366
Spring 1976 '436 *Judian Action required their employees..,
to take Math and other general courses.
Fall 1976 368 *Title 7 ended- (Title 7 trainees had been
)required to t:ak(' classes)., 'Title 1 aideshired late. were .no. a1 be to 'register forclasses. Releaseime end's for Title I,BIA employee
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Spring 1077 445 *Indian ction rbqu4red their traineesMath and other general courses. S
Fall 1977 321for classes.
to to
*Title I hired late, not able to register
Spring 1978 368
The information above would seem to indicate that enrollment in
OSCC classes can be'strongly influenced by the local employment picture.
Government, State and Tribb.r programs which'require their employees
to take classes have caused sudden decreases in enrollment' when the
programs end ,(Fall 1974), or when people are hired late (Fall 1977)r
The same kinds of programs have caused sudden increases when they
add a large number of new employees or when the programs require
e1tra course work (Spring 1976, 1977).
Another factor linked to the employment situation is the employer's
support for employees to take college courses. Agencies which'have
linked promotions to training, such as the BIA, New Careers, and
Title I have supplied'incentive for many of 'their employers to take
courses. Originally many of these programs provided release time
for employees to.take afternoon clAses. When this policy was Uhangefl
(Fall 1976) a corresponding reduction in enrollment occurred. However,
employees in such programs still take many classes in an effort to
gain promotions to advance to prOfessional careers.
Financial alfle programs have also caused some fluctuation in
college -enrollment. When requirements change or a)re difficult to
understand and when programs: are added or withdrIwn;shifts in our
enrollment occur. Since "9M, of our students re:eive financial aide
from prC\gram Such as HbOG, t.11e Veterns Program, the RIA, and mis-
cellaneoits on the job training hinds , and because these programs can
change or IA dropped overnight, we have, to realize 'that projecting
the impact of. future financial'-aide is a shady task at` best.
8
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In fact, the combination of shifting,financial aideprograms
and the shifting emplokment/training,picture-make projecting future
enrollment a shaky ,task at best .
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WHAT DOES THE RESERVATION CENSUSIMPLY FOR THE GROWTH
OF. OSCC?
't-.
Okiginalceng.ms data was Obtained.t6 use in a complex formula--
which projects colLege growth'(Chart #4). However, the, census data
by itself is helpful in discussing possible growth 'or the college:
On the chart which follows, the_reader can compare stratiTied census,
data froW1977* and, 1067* as well as comparative figures fbrthe
percentages ofpeople in,h-twh age group.
At least two ,things should be noted in reading thistA
-1, The population has increased. 2047 in the. last 10 years,
approximately 205 per year. ThUs.;' since 1972 when we .have'
figures for the College Center population, the reservation
population vftwn approxil 1,230. Yet in the-Fall
Of 1973 we had ;lt48 students; we.currentiv have 368 students :
2. The porcont.:wf, <o tnoople in each age group has remained:
.constant From 1907-1977, varyin0: at best n. ThuS, no large
population boom can be predieted for the college ages .of 18
and over, even (lioul the population is growing. People seem
to migrate off 1he reservation when they reach their late
teens in:: siN ki proportion, each yar7 Aecordigtto Eileen
Maynard and G:[vIn Twi, in That These People May Live; "Almost
half (47Y. of saiiide popnlation) have Jived one continuous yearti
or more Oil iho r(,rv-ati(m, (df the miad bloods.fand 34% of
the Full. (
*The 1977 da i s f rou I ic ,dy:1 -I ',L. S i ()'11;:-1'z' i 1)e. C(nil..rn,c-Ls' Of ,
1.11e 1 f)67 cla t :1 rofit .1)t11)-1i y Jinni th Sevi cornmuni.tyNlenital.. lien I -VII I) r( t;)
i0
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11
CHART II
PINE RIDGE RESERVATION CENSUS 11-7-77
.,
..
, ' '
,
AGES
01
1963-*
1977,
v
AGES
15-19
1958-
1962
AGE
, 20-24
1953-
1'.957
AGES
25-29
1918-
1952
ApEs
'30:3 ,
194-,
194/,
AGES
35-39
1938- ,
1942
AGES
40-44
1933-
1937
N
AGES
,
45 &
OVER
1932-
-
NO AGE
GIVEN
,
TOTAL DISTRICT'
POPULATIO.'
,
4
...-
?INE 'RIDGE '1119 331 , 243 172 119 90 78 31.0 270. 2135 .
fAXPAMNI. 397 139 110 58 13 28 29 189 296 . , 1,283
IOUNDED KNEE 501 135 108 ' 68 09 .28 it39 123 111 . 1,185
PORCUPINE 5W3 148. , 80 57 -54 32 35 125 . 215 1,255
MEDICINE ROOT 601 220 130 ' 115 69 50 ,63 216 395 1,859
WHITE CLAY .475, 173 10.0 .78 OR 50 33 190 143 1,311- '
ACREEK, '288 91 Y8 73 7 i 33 102 158. 869,
EAGLE NEST , 246 75 55 55 '3 19 15 90 277 855
PASSCREEK 219 58 31 34 18 11 10. 61 33 178
11-7-77 ,352 ,373 947 710 510 337 335 1,400 1,8!98 11!862
1977,CNS118 ADJUSTED, TO DISTRIBUTE I'NO AGE GIVEN" COLTA
kcljuted 5187 1638 11:J0 812 605 394 392 1665 '. 11,862
1977 835) (f265) ('-189), (H.32) (+95) ;+57) . (+57) (+265)
1967 CENSUS PINE RIDGE MENTAL HEALTH PROGRAM',
)
1, 67 4487 1106 695 541 462 436, 366 1708 14 9,815
(PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE IN EACH AGE GROUP 1967/1977
.,'
PERCENTAGES 44% 14% 10% .7% 5% 3%, ',
14% .
7.j67: .
....Hli .
46% 11% t. 7% , 6% 5%, "4$ 4% . 17% . .
/12
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WHAT GROWTH CAN THE .COLLEGE EXPECT IN THE NEXT SIX YEARS?
Realizing that .student forecasting is difficult at best,
enrollments'being affected so much by finnnCjal aide and federal
program changes, the Ogl al a Sjoux Ct)mmunity College still. wanted
a measure of rut, ro 1 1 men t found 1 he roll n g mathema-
t ea I formula. wiuile .t our heed; in forecatini.,, student
grow( h i n 1 ht 1. r:;.i.
( I iI i I' i tie iii'
1 '5 5.
1;) :t11(1 (1(.1
( I eu I I 1 i i)':( : t , ruled
n
( ep I i I I I I I
-1'0Up;I: listed
t (It,: I (: 'r I iI);iI 11011111 t't t i()11
i'hr" :ii en] to t Ite-
iH I ilvti 1.1 h 1'v lit, 1st
r \ I i pocti I i hit.
I' III: Chill I:11 Hill
H I I : tarn Tit H; vIt I h(`
ii . i ;1
i :' ii e I i I t t
r t ( 1 HI II I :
Vt11Ik00.(II it I I I 11.: I(I ILI i ell::
t )1' I 11 Ilk
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CHART IVCOLLEGE GROWTH PR) 1ECTIONS
1978-1981
Step I: Reservation Stratifiod Population(Adjusted Figures)
0 - 1415- 1920- 2425- 2930- 3435- 3940- 1145 +
Stop II:
I ;
51871638
13(;911-1
60539:13W.!
1 (1(;
I I i
IHP,1 Tilrw Total
11 1 1'1H. Hd-
105
6(1
/0
t1 t. I 1.'11 1!);;;', -1
L. 1, IL- i 18111'10 1 II I I: '111 1 1. 11110.
'1',) , ,..1,;0 91 1 91';',:10 '1 l 111: L' i, 1 ,' 11.1,,', (1(17
:19 1(41 1(1,1 1111. 11;1 ITh 1:11111 11 ::!W, 101 1 10 1 1C, 111:1 P'9M -F I li-1 I .H1 1 i';1 1;1011 IW,17.
'7',G1TOTAL 671.1)1 Co.,o1 ,o1C,
i IS
/131 7218
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Step V:
AI;C___ Grottp15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3910-1418 1
8111111,011:11;;
Pro jec Led Cel ler,e Cent el; 1,1111-oil einen I : 1978-1.9811 ep 1V x S Lop I l l : Full ,! rut F211! [-I' i mo 8 I uden 1,--; )
MILL 111^1H M111)11,Nr1
19 8.____ -79...
1979-80 11)$0.: -81 1981 82__
1982-83 1983184_.......L __L___:___________3 3 4 i 4 4
38 39 11) 10 41.E 4232 :12 33 33 34 '3425 28 26 26 '2G 2710 10 10 11 11 11.10 11 11 11 11 11., )
I ! 1 1;1 1.8 15:19 1.12, 141
1 ;)8 ) 198:1- 849827
9 7462
I I 18 .18 /1GI I 8 19
28) 1 ' 2G
I 1
.)i,
1 ' 1'
89:1 10G
1 i 1 ' 1!1;',3 '', I
) t , ; 1 I 1 I 1
I 1, I ; I 1 1 i'
1
1
1 HI 1 it's \ 1 I. 1 t; :I I ;II
i ht,
' ; 1 ;1111 .
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12.
We are, at least in a li mi. ted '.';ay, ab to ve t.:ome control over
our recruitmen t. pc.)1 i es. however , a.s c.otrl d he seen in the in-formation on enrol 1 In( fl uc Lun t i on (pag(' 1.) we cannot depend
upon funding and emp I oymen I./ I ma 1 n i int fa c.1 t; stay constant.Wha ti, then , (.(1 p ect on_rtt, I ves f rent unexpected
('Itt.(t1 I. I its I u
-; I (`1?: 1 II
a t on I t»
1 ) i 11- I
1,1f i
('lilt) I (
t1111 ,11.(.1,1W111'11,1.
11..1 'I
ri.'!1 I'S I !()
I ),
I 1011'; i cIt prr(2\v
,111(1 I),)\\ I X111 t o Cf.
h y (in provi CL,r
' I! I I \ I !I 'II II( ) .
;(0): :1
I'jk jj',0 IF - 1' I V;(,) k \vol) (41 t'OO l' "Ilt'j';()t t,O
; I I;IO VIM PH I I)I. () I. :I I'll 1 I '\. t t
,) 1 I \ 1,, -1',.ii!,11,,,, I r...) i IL i v(1 ,
, ill .1- ,, 1 ,I. I i 'I I
1 Ct c,,i.l.:el i
I' i ,, I :I(L (-)1'
I il i :. I i ev, II:II I IIII '.. 1, 1H! III), )
1
II I I1. MII I I (1(''.1 I I y
II, (),) 111. HOI):I
,M( I (,r( 1,;(,
.,11111 it 1 t.(1 i
l I (I,'I I I I III
I :lI ILI'
II I I \
I \
'II I l'II I I I
I III ,,,
1. 6
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13
11'. ) lii gh School counselors :---;houl (I 1M encouraged 1 o understandwhat we have to 0 I ler local student s, no t only as a bridge.to four year roll ekes, 1)11 I. as a derree .grant i tig lust 1. tu t,, ionteat .eci to prov i (H p rac t i cal ;job ski 11 s for resery tt t i onet loymen t 4 The :i mini' Lance of our 141.1C0 1, a S Cudi OS programshout Cl n 1 so he s I ressed to Ili gh school .sen "ors si nee manyhave men t i ()nod t lint I hry des i.re tuich course work as part .,of the i r ('duel. 1 , i on .* '
15 . ) We1 I
pc op I e i !, I ;
1 a l'12,v :th( 1: I ()lir pr;;;-,r:N.; :, 1--',.11m)111;;I : hrf );Thur(,;--; 'T , V . time ,,
tart' :( '1 rrouos on I il l't''-1)1' \'11 i ( )11 , ;1 -; \\''.1 i as the ,public at
I. - i tilt; v. n I (I Inol- ha n I i 1..;) I y i. tic tst!:t .-:;(, enrol 1In(, n t .
A tC;1; )1.1(I; I :;
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APPENDIX
A Shannon County school census report which li. tS the number
Of, people ( In:Alan and Non -1. ndi an ) in each age group rom 1 to 26years old col 1 ows . The to a Is seem t o i nd i cat e a gradual decreasein the 11'11111w/ t i 1(11 1;, e;tell ye;
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1421. YOU 1 SCHOOL CE:11309 BEPOIT,
YEA.1 SC'1-1061, CENSUS REVAT
4 4
VIkpmtor SuppV 4 Printing Co., Altd?,11,...1 P.ra
School Dist, Sham, County No, '63-1: County IllannonJolutoort. SatUi.rni. , Name o: Scholl LilstrloI Clerk, Address of School IbtrIct
COPIES OF CENSUS: One copy is to lie filed for each unty lr which the school district has land area. Copies of each county arils' sh,^41..bl! fillwall the Commissioner of School and ljlic Lands by the first day of 41y. The Business Manager is to retain a copy for kach county toalchool di'stiict's'composite of all enumerated children under,twenty One years of age who have're.siLenee with the school district(SIJCL 13.13, 13.22 and 13.23).
LEGEND: 10 CUM NUMBERS ON SOPOL CENSUS NAME SHEETS
1 ''.,M1117,i1 -- This co!uniii ;;Ito\vs the of census children listed on page..*
mmalitnaMMOPIPIAN
2 Sn'll00i.C::V,:s Li -2,.,11',e; of all chhdrelk tInt:er 12,1 years of age on Octqer 31st of i,he yeas in which the cnsus is heir.icand
N1.10 :,:-nlerce in ;ijstric'or: the 1say opril.
3 and v(v.
,
K,ACE tom., or c :Lv ',),:*! state. '(I)1 FOREIGIvi, DOM LIST NAME OF TOWN AND CO',:f,TilY.)r "ti 31 --
6 it, 0.1 day of October of the year in whieh the cen'J.Is is 1, !It.g taken.
7obi!(1 A \vith Loth parents, a with 'f:)ther C, r,.,11.;,-r, Li::the c'oild, --- Beardin,:c, away from home to attend F
CL. 'c' It -.- tttlIl1y self supported twelve months out of the yo):,
rA
1...t k.):-
Hale
Female
4 1Ire," et ,,l or
!; OF SCHOOL CENSUS TOTALS
8 9 ,10,t 11 12 13 14 15 15 ...0
\
...he above
5122
1 12 1'21 -11121
1 1 12
, >
ef
lil futti,o',111,.. Fur',
19 20 Total
103 IL69 222798
201 157 4693
21