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  • C M Y CM CY MY CMY CMY50% K K50%

  • 2012 12 2012 12

    (2285-0936)

    2-02361(97.4.23) (142-728) 1307()

    900-4300() 901-2525() 901-2544 http://www.kinu.or.kr

    ISBN 978-89-8479-677-5 93340

    15,000

    , 2012

    .

    () : : 734-6818 : 394-0337

    ,

    .

  • :

    4(20102013) : . 3 .

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    2010 .

    1 (2010)

    01 ( )

    02 ( )

    03 20 ( )

    04 ( )

    05 ( )

    06 4 ( )

    07 Korean Unification and the Neighboring Powers ( )

    1 01, 02, 03, 04 . 05

    06 07 .

    2 (2011)

    01-1 ( )

    01-2 ( )

    02 ( )

    03 ( )

    04 ( )

    05 US-China Relations and Korean Unification ( )

    06 ()

    2 01, 02, 03, 04 . 05

    . 06

    .

  • 3 (2012)

    01 ( )

    02 :

    ( )

    03 Korean Unification and a New East Asia Order ( )

    3 01, 02 . 03

    .

  • xiii

    . 1

    . 2013 71. 2012 92. 2013 123. 184. 21

    . 2013 311. 332. 2012 353. 2013 , 474. 73

    . 791. 812. 833. 894. 975. 103

  • . 1091. 1112. 1173. 1274. 134

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  • . 2471. 2492. 2623. 2694. 276

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    . 325 335

    341

  • 2013 18

    SWOT 74

    2008~20011 141

    158

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    - 4 274

    311

    313

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    . 20132017

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    20132017

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    (Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Dismantlement: CVID).

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    xv

  • Abstract

    North Korea Policy in Pursuit of

    Unification in the Period of 2013~2017

    Park, Hyeongjung et al.

    North Korea policy should ultimately contribute to the realization

    of Korean unification. In practice, this has not been easy in the past

    and wont be also in the future. The daily challenges for North

    Korea policy may make the policy maker loose the sense of ultimate

    purpose of North Korea policy on behalf of Korean unification. This

    analysis reviews the policy challenges in the next five years of 2013

    2017 regarding various areas of North Korea policy and suggests

    policies for managing them, while keeping the perspective of

    unification.

    Key words: Unification Policy, North Korean Policy, Inter-Korean

    Relation, Exchanges and Cooperation, Denuclearization,

    Scenario Method

    xvi

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  • . 2013 37

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  • 38

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    13Philippe C. Schmitter, Liberalization by Golpe: Retrospective Thoughts on the

    Demise of Authoritarian Rule of Portugal, Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 2

    (1974), p. 20.

    14Geoffrey Pridham, The Dynamics of Democratization: A Comparative Approach

    (London and New York: Continuum, 2000), p. 69.

    15 Ibid., p. 77.

  • 48

    .

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  • . 2013 49

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  • 58

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  • . 2013 59

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  • 62

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  • . 2013 63

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    . 2000

    IMF 2000

    .20

    20, 3000 (: , 2008), p. 65.

  • . 2013 65

    , 1980

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    (economic

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    .21

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    21, : (; , 2001), pp. 62, 67.

  • 66

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  • 68

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  • 70

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  • 72

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    . 2005 2

    6 .

    919 .

    BDA

    6 ,

    1 213 103 (2007)

    . 103

    6 .

    2 ,

    , 1874 .

    2 ,

    . 2010 3 11

    , 6

    .

    2011

  • 262

    2011 7

    (ASEAN Regional Forum: ARF) .

    , 2012 229

    . 20

    , 229 2

    .

    2.

    .

    (CVID)

    .

    ,

    . CVID

    . 919

    .

    919 6

    .

    NPT IAEA

    .