01 el niño impact and recovery monitoring program zb 2016 · moderate - strong el niño very...
TRANSCRIPT
El Niño Impact and Recovery
Monitoring Program
Kiritimati, Kiribati
Zulfikar Begg, Herve Damlamian, Cyprien Bosserelle, Salesh Kumar, Amrit Raj, Kataebati Bataua
Geoscience Division, Pacific Community, Fiji Islands
Background
2014Request for technical assistance sent to SPC’s Geoscience Division
(GSD) by the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources
Development (MFMRD)
2015• Baseline Data acquisition by SPC
Objective: Identify vulnerable areas to assist decision makers
for future developments planning.
• SPC funds via an annual grant from New Zealand (NZROSP)
• Climate outlook sent to GoK
2016• January Inundation Event: GoK requested SPC to undertake post
inundation survey
• 1 year monitoring program
Concept – Phase 1-2015• Baseline data:
– Geodetic
– Topography
– Infrastructure data
• Inundation Hazard:
– Water level
– Sea Level Rise
• Erosion- Shoreline Change analysis
• Develop Decision Making Tool:– Coastal Management
– Urban Planning
– Disaster risk reduction
Collaborative Approachbetween SPC and GoK(MFMRD & Lands) with astrong capacity buildingcomponent.
1 Year Monitoring Program
Phase 2-2016co-funded by NZROSP and the GEF Reef to Ridge Project
• Oceanographic data:
– Current Meter near the picnic area.
– 2 Wave gauges on the Ocean side
– 1 Tide gauge on the Lagoon side
• 3D Shoreline Change – Impact and Potential recovery.
- Compare Topography data from March 2015 (prior El Nino), May 2016,
~August 2016, ~December 2016.
• Change in Lagoon Habitat
– Compare 2015 Habitat map with August 2016.
Project Site
Normal Conditions
http://cosppac.bom.gov.au/products-and-services/ocean-portal/
Nov 2015-Jan 2016 SST Anomaly
SEA LEVEL ANOMALIES – REAL TIME – 03/11/2015
MEAN LEVEL OF THE SEA IN LINE ISLANDS: + 0.30m
source: http://cosppac.bom.gov.au/products-and-services/ocean-portal/
http://cosppac.bom.gov.au/products-and-services/ocean-portal/
Feb-April 2016 SST Anomaly
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index_5km_ssta_max_yeartodate.php
Jan-May 2016 NOAA CRW Bleach Alert
CBC News: "It looked like a ghost
town. The structure is still there,
all the buildings are still standing
but there is no-one home.
Meaning all the corals are
dead," says Julia Baum
HISTORICAL EL NINO EVENT IN KIRITIMATI
The 10 Largest water level recorded occurred during EL Niño
30 LARGEST WAVE FOR
KIRITIMATI OVER THE LAST 34
YEARS
2/3 Occurred during EL Niño
4 out of the 6 largest Swell
that reached Kiritimati
occurred during strong EL
Niño event.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Ann
ual r
ainf
all (
mm
)
Year
Annual rainfall v El Niño episodes, Kiritimati
Moderate - Strong El Niño
Very Strong El Niño
Baseline data collection
Geodetic data
Water Level
Baseline data collection
Geodetic data
Shoreline Change 2002-2015
March 2015 May 2016
Coastal Impact driven by 2016
El Niño at Koil, Kiritimati
2015 Beach Profile
2016 Beach Profile
EROSION
ACCRETION
March 2015 May 2016
Coastal Impact driven
by 2016
El Niño in Tabwakea,
Kiritimati
EROSION
ACCRETION
Conclusion
• The Pacific Islands are among those countries suffering the most from El Niño
• It is important to understand and quantify the possible impacts of El Niño in order to help improve resilience
• Wave runup increases for higher water levels (expected with sea-level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness(loss of corals)
• Coastlines continuously adjust towards more dynamic equilibrium but its state depends on wave climate and coastal processes.
• Although global or regional predictions provide useful info, the data needs to be downscaled to account for local conditions.
• Improve Coastal management� More localized studies: Coastal processes, wave climate, shoreline
response, reef check
Vinaka and
special
thanks to
the Ministry
of Line and
Phoenix,
MFMRD,
MELAD