01 sudalgaanii saj9o
DESCRIPTION
kokTRANSCRIPT
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2011
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2
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,
, . . . . . . , . , , .
, . , . 6 .
, SMIM , - , ARIMA , , , , , , , , .
, .
, , .
3
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1. - , ...........................................................5 2.
..................................................................................................................99 3. (SMIM): /
...................................................................113 4.
/ / ...................................................................................155 5. ............179 6. ....................................195 7. ..........................................................203 8. ...........235 9. ..........257 10.
(SBVAR) ...............................................................................................................277 11. The role of the exchange rate in Mongolia: A shock absorber or a source of shocks?
................................................................................................................................341 12. : ,
............................................................................................................361 13.
...............................................................................................................389 14. - : -
................................................................................................................405 15. , :
(DSGE) ......................................................................................................419 16. .................453 17. (DSGE)- ...479 18. Measuring exchange market pressure in Mongolia: EMP index ..........................503 19. : EMP ...........533 20. , : ARIMA
............................................................................................565
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, ()- , . - , . - , . , - - , 2011 3 4 . , - 5 , . , , . , , , , - , . , - 1000, , - 100, 50 , 2,100 . , 2011 3 4 2,224 , . , . (, , , ) . - , , , 2007 7 27- , , - 2009 , . - - , . , , , . ,
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M - 1994
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6 .
1998 , , .
1999 . 2002 -
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. 2005 - . 2005-2006 - 1
. 2006
. 2007 - . 2008 ,
. 2009 ,
- 2012 .
2009 - - . 2009 -
. 2009 -
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, .
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2009-2010 - 60.8 .
2010 - 25 . - .
2010 - 90 , 300 .
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2010 , 4 .
2010 - 75 2 .
2011 1 48 , 690 ( 19%) 2010 65 9 .
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- , , . 95%- ( 5%- ) , 2. 2010 ()- 3 40,921 . 1000, -, , 100, 50 2200 . 1.2%- 2,227 . , 46.3%- , 53.7%- , -, 4.1-4.5 , 2.1-2.3 / 1/. 1 - , . 2 ; n- , z- (95%- 1.96- ), s- , N- - . 3 , , 2010 12 .
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40,921 - 5.4% 3.8%, , -, 6.5-9.0%, 37.8%, 4.7-11.6% . 1.1 ,
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- 702 1.72% 50 52 2.3% 7.41% - 435 1.06% 50 50 2.2% 11.49% 586 1.43% 50 50 2.2% 8.53% 614 1.50% 50 51 2.3% 8.31% 1057 2.58% 50 49 2.2% 4.64% 545 1.33% 50 51 2.3% 9.36% 588 1.44% 50 50 2.2% 8.50% 498 1.22% 50 51 2.3% 10.24% 1291 3.15% 100 101 4.5% 7.82% 694 1.70% 50 50 2.2% 7.20% 559 1.37% 50 50 2.2% 8.94% 156 0.38% 50 59 2.6% 37.82% 1028 2.51% 100 92 4.1% 8.95% 459 1.12% 50 51 2.3% 11.11% 401 0.98% 50 50 2.2% 12.47% 608 1.49% 50 50 2.2% 8.22% 1561 3.81% 100 101 4.5% 6.47% 619 1.51% 50 51 2.3% 8.24% 664 1.62% 50 56 2.5% 8.43% 421 1.03% 50 49 2.2% 11.64% 584 1.43% 50 51 2.3% 8.73% 26851 65.62% 1.000 1.032 46.3% 3.84% 40921 100.00% 2.200 2.227 100.0% 5.44% : ,
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4.8 / /
:,
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21 World bank Country Profiles- Mongolia
" " - 6
47
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:,
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,
: Encyclopedia of the Nations, 2009
0
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40
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%
- /
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103918370605241302521118621
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" " - 6
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" " - 6
104
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" " - 6
109
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" " - 6
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-
VI.
; , ,
.
VII. , [1] Regis Barnichon, [2008], International Reserves and Self-Insurance against External Shocks, IMF, Working paper series 08/149.
[2] Pablo Garcia and Claudio Soto [2006], Lange Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?, Central bank of Chile, Working paper.
[3] Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk [2007], Optimal Reserve Management and Sovereign Debt, Harvard Business School, Working paper 2007-29.
[4] Olivier Jeanne and Romain Ranciere [2006], The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications, IMF, Working paper 06/229.
[5] Fernando M.Goncalves [2007], The Optimal Level of Foreign Reserves in Financially Dollarized Economies:The Case of Uruguay, IMF, Working paper 07/265.
[6] J.Onno de Beaufort Wijnholds and Lars Sundergaard [2007], Reserve Accumulation objective or by-product?, European Central Bank, Working paper 73.
[7] Jaewoo Lee [2004], Insurance Value of International Reserves: An Option Pricing Approach, IMF, Working paper 04/175.
[8] Jun Il Kim [2008], Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance, IMF, Working paper 08/144.
[9] Andrew Berg and Catherine Pattillo [1999], Are Currency Crises Predictable?: A Test, IMF, Working paper 46/02.
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-
" " - 6
112
-
(SMIM): /
.-1
, , (SMIM)- . . (i) . (ii) (SIMOM, SMIM )- . (iii) (SIMOM, SVAR SMIM)- 12 35-50 (fan-chart)- , .
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" " - 6
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" " - 6
114
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" " - 6
115
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" " - 6
116
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" " - 6
117
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(Bernanke (1999)). , ( markup ), ( ), ( ) . . 4 (, , )- . Juselius (1992), Mertin (1995), Hendry (1999) Sekine (2001) . Johansen , . , ( , markup)- Juselius (1992) Mertin (1995) (VEC)- . p-star , rkup . , , , , , . arkup,. Markup de Brouwer Ericsson (1998) , Tanaka Kimura (1998), Sekine (2001) . (unit labor cost)- de Brouwer Ericsson (1998) markup- . [1] P W P P - ( - ), W- , P- ( ). 3 (p,w, p)- VAR Johansen- . 1- - . VE Lag Exclusion Wald Test- 3- . Johansen- . , 1 . rkup . [2] markup p 0.45w 0.12p , . , 2 .
" " - 6
118
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" " - 6
119
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[3] 2003-2007 2008 2008 2 2009 ( 1- A). , 4 . 20.SMIM , p-star 5 . , . . , ( ), . - , , . 2 0 . () , (Sargent Wallace (1981)). , , . 2000 . , Sahay Vegh (2002) 94 . Luis Catao Marco E.Terrones (2003) 107 42 , , . Sargent Wallace (1981) . (Dornbusch, Sturzenegger Wolf (1990), Calvo Vegh (1999)) .
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" " - 6
120
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" " - 6
121
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" " - 6
122
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123
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" " - 6
124
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" " - 6
125
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