02 09-2008 almir guilherme barbassa - energy-power conference-iehman brothers (somente em inglês)
TRANSCRIPT
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CEO Energy/Power Conference Lehman Brothers
Almir Guilherme BarbassaCFO and Investor Relations OfficerSeptember, 2008
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Disclaimer
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
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For Year Ended 2005 2006 2007 Net Revenues 56.3 72.3 87.7 EBITDA 17.6 22.9 25.3 Capex 10.4 14.9 21.0 Total Debt(1) 21.2 21.3 21.9 Cash & Cash Equivalents 9.9 12.7 7.0 Net Debt 11.3 8.7 14.9 Total Equity 32.9 44.3 65.2 Total Assets 78.6 98.7 129.7
NOTES:
Exploration & Production
Downstream(Supply)
Gas & Energy
Biofuels
Distribution
Petrochemicals
Downstream
16%
Domestic E&P
81%
Distribution
3%
International
CORPORATE ORGANIZATION AND KEY OPERATING RESULTS
Summary Financials (US$ billion)
Income from Operations(2)
1 Includes capital leases2 For tthe year ended December 31, 2006. Excludes losses in gas and energy, corporate results and eliminations
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NATIONAL PRODUCTION OF OIL, NGL & NATURAL GAS – 2Q08 VS 1Q08
1.789 1.816 1.854
269 304 321
2Q07 1Q08 2Q08Oil and NGL Natural Gas
Thou
s. b
pd
2,120 2,1753%2,058
• 2% increase in oil production for the quarter due to the increase in the production of P-52 and P-54 platforms (Roncador field);
• 6% increase in the natural gas production. Increase in the production of non-associated natural gas in the Manati field and in the EspíritoSanto Basin, and increase in the production of associated natural gas in the new production units in the Campos Basin;
• June, monthly production record: 1,867 th. bpd .
62.161.059.2FPSO Rio de Janeiro
31.726.927.9FPSO Vitória
62.2
107.9
Production2nd Q/08
P-54
P-52
Unit
96.542.7
154.852.7
Current Production (August, 5)
Production1st Q/08
Thou
sand
bpd
6%
Oil and Natural Gas Production in Brazil
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2.421
1.792
1.950*2.191
2.2962.374
1.600
1.800
2.000
2.200
2.400
2.600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Obs.: This curve does not include Tupi’s Pilot System Production
MAIN PROJECTS IN BRAZIL – 2007-2012
Rio de JaneiroEspadarte Mód II100.000 bpd6/jan/07
RoncadorP-52180.000 bpdNovember 2007
RoncadorP-54180.000 bpdNovember 2007
Piranema30.000 bpd10/oct/07
Cidade de VitóriaGolfinho Mód. 2100.000 bpdNovember 2007
Marlim LesteP-53180.000 bpd2008
Marlim Sul Módulo 2P-51180.000 bpd2008
Cidade NiteróiJabuti (FPSO)100.000 bpd2008
Parque das Conchas100.000 bpd2009
Frade100.000 bpd2009
Cachalote & BaleiaFranca FPSO Capixaba100,000 bpd2010
Marlim SulMódulo 3 –P-56
100.000 bpd2011
EspadarteMódulo 3100.000 bpd2012
JubarteP-57180.000 bpd2012
TupiEWTUp to 30.000 bpd2009
TupiPilot SystemUp to 100.000 bpd2010
RoncadorModule 4 P-62100.000 bpd2012
* Target may vary +/- 2.5%
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2812179628Total per year
63352322156Cumulative
+ 28 new units to be leased
• Delba V• Delba VI• Scorpion• Delba VII• Delba VIII• Norbe IX• Schahin 1• Schahin 2• Norbe VIII• Petroserv• Etesco 8• Sevan Brasil
•Delba IV
• Gold Star• Schahin I• Norbe VI• Delba III• SSV Victoria• West Orion
• Lone Star• Schahin III• Petrorig II• Sevan Driller• West Taurus• West Eminence• Dave Beard
5≥ 2000m
From 2013 to 2017
1000-1999m
0-999m
Water Depth
18
5
Operating 2007
• Pride South Atlantic
• O. Yorktown• Pride Mexico • Borgny Dolphin• Ocean Concord• Falcon-100
Start Up 2008
Olinda StarOcean Worker
Start Up 2009
Start Up 2011
• Petrobras XIV
Start Up 2010
Start Up 2012
NEW DRILLING RIGS
Stena Drillmax e Deep Water Millennium are not being considered since they are being negotiated in the Spot Market
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COMPETITIVE NATIONAL SUPPLY OF GOODS AND SERVICES
imports
imports
Current Demand Future Demand
1. Increase productive capacity of sectors already highly competitive
2. Develop competition among sectors with limited competition
3. Incentives for new national entrants
4. Incentives for joint ventures between national and international companies
5. Incentives for international companies to invest in Brazil
National Industry
PATH
Increase in National Supply
Capacity of G&S
Adequacy of The National Supply Industrial Complex
GOOD AND SERVICES SUPPLY
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PETROBRAS EMPLOYEES
Number of employees
HUMAN RESOURCES
46.723 48.798 52.037 53.90462.266
68.931
80.931
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012
Participants in the Training Programs
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
774989 1.043
1.213
2.468
2.101
22,000 new employees since 2002 and 12,000 more up to 2012 The superior level professionals, who were recently admitted, without the required previous experience, spend up to a year in classrooms before starting to effectively work at the company
Forecasted demand for workers at Petrobras supply chain in Brazil
The Brazilian Government, with Petrobras support has a specific training program to meet this demand
ENGENEERING CONSTRUCTION &PROCUREMENT
CIVILCONSTRUCTION MAINTENANCE
112.625 workers
5.967 84.57615.020 7.062
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Sergipe-AlagoasLight Oil
Espirito SantoLight Oil & Natural Gas
CamposProducible Heavy Oil & Light Oil
SantosLight Oil & Natural Gas
Proven Reserves: 3,80 B boeProb.&Poss. Res: 4,50 B boeUnder Evaluation (2007) : 4,70 B boe
~ 13.0 billion boer(2002-2007)
MAIN DISCOVERIES - 2002/2007
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164 Million years ago152 Million years ago130 Million years ago122 Million years ago108 Million years agoEarth Planet as today
FORMATION OF THE PRE-SALT
0 4960 Miles
SINBPA/Petrobras - Scotese
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PRE SALT PROVINCE
Total area of the Province: 112,000 km2Area under concession: 41,000 km2 (38%)Area not under concession: 71,000 km2 (62%)Area with Petrobras interest: 35,000 km2 (31%)
Well Tested HC CampusExploratory blocks Pre-salt Reservoirs
hinge line
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RECENT OIL/GAS DISCOVERIES 2006-2007 - CLUSTER BLOCKS
Discovered fields before 1984Discovered fields between 1985/2001Discovered fields between 2002/2007Cluster Blocks
Production to date: 7 bi boeActual Production: 1.6 MMboepdProducing Wells: 542 Area: 7,000 km2
Pre-salt Cluster15,000 km2Tupi: 5 a 8 bi boe
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PRE SALT – SANTOS BASIN
BM-S-17
BM-S-50
BM-S-52(Corcovado)
BM-S-42
Wells Being Drilled
Wells Drilled
BM-S-21 (Caramba)
BM-S-8 (Bem-te-Vi)
BM-S-10 (Parati)
BM-S-11(Tupi)
(Guará)
BM-S-24(Jupiter)
(Yara)
BM-S-22
BM-S-9 (Carioca)
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* Leased from BW Offshore
EXTENDED WELL TEST -TUPI
1st Oil: March/2009
1 Oil Production
Capacity
1Riser to Export Gas1000 thous. m3Flare Capacity
Wells
2.170 mWater Depth
28 – 42 º API30,000 bpd
Oil RangeCapacity to Process Oil
FPSO – Leased*
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Capacity
5 oil production (+4 extra)2 water injection (+3 extra)
1 gas injection (+1 extra)Wells
20 – 30 º APIOil degree
100 mil bpd60 mil bpd
Water InjectionWater Production
2.145 mWater Depth
4 million m3 /d
100,000. bpd
Capacity of Gas Compression
Capacity to Process Oil
1st Oil: Dec./2010
TUPI PILOT SYSTEM - PRODUCTION UNIT
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Gasene
77 km
Azul
Catuá
Jubarte
Cachalote
Ostra
Abalone
Argonauta
NáutilusFranca
Anã
Pirambú
CaxaréuMangangá
20 km
4-ESS-1491-ESS-122
1-ESS-1163-ESS-110HPA
BAZ
CTU
1-ESS-125
3-ESS-175
4-ESS-172
4-ESS-172-ES
4-ESS-175-ES
1-ESS-103A-ESJUB
BFR
MGG
NAU
PRB
CXR
BLACHT
1-ESS-119
4-ESS-135
1-ESS-103
6-CHT-4
PRE-SALT DISCOVERIES IN ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE (CAMPOS BASIN)
Well tests showed high productivities in the pre-salt reservoirs.
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Participation of the natural gas in the Brazilian energy matrix
Sour
ce: M
ME, B
EN 2
006
In 16 years, natural gas participation in the energy matrix increased 370%, boosted by the ramp up of Campos Basin production and Gasbol pipeline
Campos Basin
Gasbol
INCREASING DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS
1970 1980 1989 1990 1998 1999 2000 2002 2004 2006
4.7%
9.4%
2.0%
2007 2012*
10%13,4%
*Forecast
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GAS & POWER OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE
Energy sold in the last auctions
Increase gas supply from E&P
New gas pipelines in operation
New regulatory framework in the electric sector
Next Steps…Completed ActionsMore gas available to be sold or to be used in
thermo generation
Better prices and margins
Higher dispatch in the thermo power plants to guarantee the security of the electric system
Recovery of fixed costs
Reduction in contractual penalties
HydroNuclearWindCoalThird-parties Thermo generation (oil + gas)Petrobras Thermo generation (oil + gas)
New contracts with the distribution companies
40.000
42.000
44.000
46.000
48.000
50.000
52.000
jan/07 jun/07 jan/08 jun/08
MW av
erga
e
Gas-fired thermo generation growing importance in Brazil
Creating flexibility in the portfolioIncrease LNG regasification capacity
Completing gas infra-structure
Increasing domestic production
More contracts sold in energy auctions
Source: ONS (Brazilian Energy System)
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DOMESTIC NATURAL GAS SUPPLY CURVE
28,0
45,7
64,171,1 71,3 70,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Parque das Conchas
Marlim LesteP-53
Frade
RoncadorP-52
RoncadorP-54
Marlim SulMódulo 2
P-51
Rio de JaneiroEspadarte Mód II
Cidade NiteróiJabuti(FPSO)
Cidade de VitóriaGolfinho Mód. 2
Marlim SulMódulo 3 - P-56Albacora
(water injection)
Barracuda(infill drilling)
EspadarteMódulo 3
JubarteP-57
Peroá-Cangoá
Urucu
Canapu
Mexilhão
Uruguá -Tambaú
Non-associeted natural gas
Associated natural gas
Camarupim
Lagosta
Million m3d
Bacia Campos
Manati
Pirapitanga
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DOWNSTREAM BUSINESS STRATEGY - Northeast Region
NEW REFINERY IN PERNAMBUCO
PREMIUM REFINERY IN CEARÁ
Petrobras will study, together with Ceará State, the possibility of installing a Premium refinery;
Capacity: 300,000 bpd;
The refinery’s first operation phase is scheduled to start in 2014.
PREMIUM REFINERY IN MARANHÃO
Petrobras will study, together with Maranhão State, the possibility of installing a Premium refinery;
Capacity: 600,000 bpd;
The refinery’s first operation phase is scheduled to start in 2013.
Total Investment: US$ 4.1 billion (Petrobras share US$2.4 billion);Throughput capacity: 200 thousand heavy oil barrels (60% Petrobras oil / 40% PDVSA oil);Focusing diesel and LPG production maximizationStart Up: 2011
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13%
87%
Brasil Internacional6%4%
1%
2% 26%
58%
2%
65.1
29.6
6.74.3
2.62.6
E&P RTC G&EPetrochemical Distribution Corporate Biofuel
1.5 97.4
15.0
Note: Includes International
US$ 65.1 billion directed to E&PExploration: US$ 13.8 billionProduction: US$ 51.3 billion
INVESTMENT PLAN BY BUSINESS SEGMENT
2008-12 PeriodUS$ 112.4 billion
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INVESTMENTS – SEGMENTS BREAKDOWN
1.4581.670327Distribution
6.3146.5742.864International
45.285875
4.817
10.536
20.813
2007 (BR GAAP)
Total InvestmentsCorporate
Gas & EnergySupplyExploration & Production
1.382628
60.80620.978
9.1463.223
14.5054.488
28.0019.448
BUDGET 2008* 2007 (US GAAP)
*R$/US$ = 1,7713 (date12/31/2007)*Forecast R$/US$ = 1,80 (average)
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STRONG RETURNS HAVE ENABLE COMPANY TO GROW WITHOUT INCREASING DEBT
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sources Uses
CFFO(including W.C.)
Capex
Dividends
Consolidated Cash Flows74.3 BN 2003-2007
Inc. Debt
7,5961,83810,61514,48048,529PP&E (inc. Dep.)
291
446
Distri-bution
Int’lGas & Energy
Downstream (Brazil)
E&P(Brazil)
1,1446,0239,37113,558O/w Construction in Progress
(815)(834)2,78514,072Net Op. Inc.
Historical ROCEU.S. GAAP
Operating Income and Assets by Segment - 2007(US GAAP – US$ Millions)
Source: Petrobras and Bloomberg
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QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSIONVisit our website: www.petrobras.com.br/ri
For more information contact:Petróleo Brasileiro S.A – PETROBRAS
Investor Relations DepartmentTheodore Helms – Executive Manager
E-mail: [email protected]. República do Chile, 65 – 22o floor
20031-912 – Rio de Janeiro, RJ(55-21) 3224-1510 / 3224-9947