02 think futures 2014

Strategic Management @ 2014

Wai chamornmarn

02 การวิเคราะห์อนาคต Thinking futures


The first ……… in thailand that make a big change.

Future designs •  VISION (desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision) •  TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation;

expert knowledge) •  FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends;

expert knowledge) •  SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and

their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures

–  STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantified options)

–  COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitative aspects of alternative future designs)


Scenarios versus Forecasts


วิธีการพยากรณ์อนาคต

•  อนาคตที่ชัดเจน

•  การพยากรณ์แบบเดียว พอเพียงที่จะกําหนดกลยุทธ์ได้

•  ใช้วิธีการพยากรณ์แบบดั้งเดิม

อนาคตที่มีช่วงหรือขอบเขตระยะหนึ่ง

• อนาคตมีความเป็นไปได้อยู่ช่วงหนึ่ง

• Technology forecasting • Scenario Planning

อนาคตมีทางเลือก อนาคตที่ชัดเจนมี 2 – 3 แบบ Decision Analysis Game theory

คลุมเคลือ ไม่มีหลักเกณฑ์เดี่ยวในการพยากรณ์อนาคต Analogies and Pattern recognition


Futures

Long-term notions of the good society

Unrealized but realisitic possibilities of problem

solutions

Likely temporal development of societal problems

Possible futures

Desirable futures

Probable futures


Three common types of futures thinking


History of Scenarios


•  Strategic •  Foresight


Context : Why foresight?

Source: David A. Jarvis

Shell Scenarios

Strategic Management @ 2014 Source: Adam Gordon


Source: Adam Gordon

Strategic Management @ 2014 Source: Adam Gordon


•  มองอนาคต • 


Key assumptions about futures studies


Barriers to understanding the future


•  Type of Scenario

• 

Opportunities and threats can be found by analysing the

changes in the operating environment

Trend analysis One or several dominating development process analysed

Scenario analysis Several alternatives described and analysed

Weak signal analysis Uncertain but potentially high impact


Types of Scenarios

•  Deductive ←→ Inductive •  organizing the big uncertainties or questions about the future into a logical form vs. taking into

consideration all data and ideas about the future,then insights about the future are induced from this study of the data.

•  Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory •  Present → Future. The current situation and then describe the steps that lead to a future situation vs.

Present ← Future Start with a prescribed vision of the future (either optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral) and then work backwards in time to visualize how this future could emerge.

•  Qualitative ←→ Quantitative •  visual symbols: diagrams; pictures or words: written phrases, outlines; or storylines vs.

Numerical information ,Commonly computed with models • 


Scenario Planning – Types

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Inductive

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Deductive

Official Future

Alternative scenario

Incremental

Vision

Normative

Adapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21st century, Shell International, 2002

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Ged Davis is Managing Director, Head of the Centre for Strategic Insight at the World Economic Forum.


Generic Foresight Process


•  Steps in Scenario Development

Thomas Powell Oxford University


Scenarios Caribbeanต้นแบบจากการประเมินระบบนิเวศสหัสวรรษ

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)

Scenario Development: 1


Euroelectric Power choices –scenario 2050 Total consumption of energy will decrease...

Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies

More electricity = less energy


Things to consider ………….



IF ………Then…………


If………….. Then………………


If…………….. Then…………….

02 think futures 2014

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