02.27.09 rmra steering committee presentation...

1© TEMS, Inc. / Quandel Consultants, LLC TEMS, Inc. / Quandel Consultants, LLC

Presentation To

RMRA Feasibility Study Steering Committee

Feasibility Update

February 27, 2009

2© TEMS, Inc. / Quandel Consultants, LLC

Study Work Schedule: Tasks 1 thru 4.4.2Study Work Schedule: Tasks 1 thru 4.4.2


Study Work Schedule: Tasks 4.5 thru 8.4Study Work Schedule: Tasks 4.5 thru 8.4


February Public Involvement UpdateFebruary Public Involvement UpdateFinalized and attained approval on stakeholder email blast–Distributed on 2/25 to nearly 1,000 contacts

Community Partnership Program Materials–Newsletter Article–Station Map–Alternatives Fact Sheet

Distributed Community Partnership Program Materials to 120+ organizations on 2/25

Continued coordination w/ I-70 Coalition and other studies (e.g. Gaming Area EIS)


Engineering Segments: Engineering Segments: Unconstrained Rail NetworkUnconstrained Rail Network


Engineering Segments: Engineering Segments: Constrained Rail and Maglev NetworkConstrained Rail and Maglev Network


Operations: IOperations: I--25 South 25 South –– Joint LineJoint LineRail Corridor Consists of two tracks –former DRGW (UP) and ATSF (BNSF) alignment

– Proposing to “undo” USRA-era mix and match that has been in place since 1918

– This becomes the starting point for a further program of curve easements

– Almost completely separate freight from passenger operations

Passenger Alignment

Freight Alignment

Sedalia

Spruce

North Colorado Springs

South Colorado Springs

Buttes

Denver

Pueblo

ATSF

ATSF

ATSF

ATSF

ATSF

DRGW

DRGW

DRGW

DRGW DRGW

DRGW

DRGW

Buttes to Fountain section, issue of Buttes to Fountain section, issue of which track segment to usewhich track segment to use


Joint Line: Nixon Power PlantJoint Line: Nixon Power Plant

Former ATSF Alignment paralleling IFormer ATSF Alignment paralleling I--2525


Joint Line and Spanish Peak LinesJoint Line and Spanish Peak LinesJoint Line, Littleton to Pueblo– With R2C2 - ATSF alignment used for passengers; DRGW for freight.

Equip DRGW with bi-directional Traffic Control and 2 mile passing sidings at 10 mile intervals (same as parallel R2C2 line freight configuration.)

– Without R2C2 – Fully replace the ATSF track by double tracking the DRGW alignment for freight with universal crossovers every 8-10 miles (except possibly from Palmer Lake to Colorado Springs where the passenger system builds it own track on the abandoned ATSF grade.)

Spanish Peaks Line, Pueblo to Trinidad– With R2C2 – Spanish Peaks line will lose most of its freight traffic (Empty

coal trains) as a result of R2C2 diversion. Upgrade one of the two tracks from Pueblo to Walsenburg to 110-mph, and single track from Walsenburg to Trinidad to best available speed based on curvature.

– Without R2C2 – Upgrade one of the two tracks Pueblo to Walsenburg to 110-mph and co-mingle with freight (empty coal trains) at 79-mph from Walsenburg to Trinidad.


Joint Line: Littleton to DUSJoint Line: Littleton to DUS

Prop Freight

Prop PsgrSouth Suburban Sta

“The Trench”

Shift LRT west onto siding to make Room for 4th Trk

“Crestline Ave”

In these areas, some freight tracks on 14’center to Light Rail. Shift freight track to

make room and widen track centers to LRT

KEYW/ R2C2

W/O R2C2


Joint Line Bridges over CJoint Line Bridges over C--470470


Rail Tracks Converging South of LRTRail Tracks Converging South of LRT


End of LRT South of Mineral StationEnd of LRT South of Mineral Station


Littleton TrenchLittleton Trench


LRT Flyover Looking SouthLRT Flyover Looking South


Four Tracks South of LRT FlyoverFour Tracks South of LRT Flyover

Four Tracks Here already!Four Tracks Here already!


Freight on 14Freight on 14’’ Center to LRT TrackCenter to LRT Track


Parked Freights at Mississippi AveParked Freights at Mississippi Ave

Trains awaiting Crew Change, also showing room to add track on bTrains awaiting Crew Change, also showing room to add track on bridgeridge


View South of CML at Curtis StreetView South of CML at Curtis Street

This area will be reconfigured by RTD West Light RailThis area will be reconfigured by RTD West Light Rail


Arriving DUS on Joint LineArriving DUS on Joint Line


Alternative Denver Station SitesAlternative Denver Station Sites

16th Street SITE

BROADWAY SITE

Broadway Site provides through movement from DIA to Golden Line (Via Arvada) – but requires movement

through Pullman Yard as well as new track connections at Prospect Jct.

To DIA via Pullman YardTo DIA via Brush LineTo Golden/I-70 via Arvada

To Pueblo and I-70 via US-6

DUS


Joint Line and CMLJoint Line and CMLJoint Line and CML, Denver to Littleton–With R2C2 - Detailed capacity simulation will be required to

finalize freight requirements and ultimately determine the necessity of capital improvements through the area:

- Tentatively, plan to add a track for bypassing the freight trainstaging area between South Denver and Englewood. The passenger track would “buffer” between the freight and LRT tracks and would extend 9 miles, all the way from the LRT flyover to DUS.

–Without R2C2 – In addition to above improvements:- Maximally extend the length of the freight train staging area to the

north end of the Littleton trench by adding switches at Crestline Avenue. Adding a fourth track here may require shifting the LRT tracks onto the “Electron Lead” to make room.

- Additionally, based on the result of the line capacity simulation, if necessary to mitigate freight capacity needs, construct an aerial rail structure to carry the passenger line through. (An alternative may be either to tunnel, or else to displace LRT out of the trench to surface running.)


Base Rail RouteBase Rail Route--79mph/150mph79mph/150mph

79-mph

110-mph

150-mph


Base Rail RouteBase Rail Route--220mph/300mph220mph/300mph

125-mph

150-mph

300-mph


X

4

XX79 mph

6

XXXXX300 mphXXXX200 mph

XXX150 mphXXX110-125 mph

30242018161412108Trains / day

Speed/FrequencySpeed/Frequency RidershipRidership Scenarios Scenarios for Typical High Speed Corridorsfor Typical High Speed Corridors


Market Analysis: Winter SurveysMarket Analysis: Winter SurveysGoals – Three Distinct Survey Types– “Abstract Mode” surveys quantify how much travelers value time (VOT)– “Transfer” surveys evaluate penalty associated with changing trains/modes– “Bias” surveys evaluate modal bias Air vs. Rail and Auto vs. Rail

Approach– Quota Surveys with individual “Sample Frame” Targets by Sub-Group (e.g.

Trip Length, Mode, Trip Purpose).

Survey Implementation– Fall Survey was targeted Primarily at Colorado Resident and non-seasonal

tourism.– Winter Survey (completed) focused on Resort tourism:

- DIA Survey of Colorado intra-state flights(VOT, Bias and Transfer survey versions)

- Ski Resort surveys at Copper Mountain and Vail(VOT, Bias and Transfer survey versions)

- Casino surveys at Central City(VOT version only)


Fall and Winter Survey ObjectivesFall and Winter Survey Objectives

Gaming ResortsAmtrak

Location Fall WinterDenver Int’l AirportBuses (RTD/FREX/Greyhound)Ski Resorts

DMV


Final Survey Locations and DatesFinal Survey Locations and Dates

SURVEY DATES

SUMMER

WINTER

BOTH


Winter Survey Actual DeploymentWinter Survey Actual DeploymentSurvey Team Actual DeploymentSurvey Team Actual Deployment

Survey TalliesSurvey TalliesLocation ResultsFall Survey . . . 2,808

Winter DIA 342Central City 74Ski Resorts 499Subtotal 915

TOTAL 3,723

Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed2/12 2/13 2/14 2/15 2/16 2/17 2/18

DIA Airport SurveyVail Resorts PilotCentral City Gaming SurveyVail and Copper Mountain


Differences in Fall vs. Winter SurveysDifferences in Fall vs. Winter SurveysBesides the three different survey versions administered (VOT, Bias, Transfer) the target populations were different:–DIA Surveys

- The Fall DIA Survey targeted local Colorado Residents and screened out connecting passengers.

- The Winter DIA Survey targeted all resort travelers on intra-state flights, including both local and connecting passengers.

–Urban and Resort Surveys- The Fall Surveys at DMV, Rail and Bus stations targeted local

Colorado Residents.- The Winter resort surveys targeted both “Day Trip” and

“Destination” resort travelers.


Winter Resort Survey QuestionnaireWinter Resort Survey QuestionnaireClassification

Questions on LeftTradeoff Questions

on Right


Winter Survey AnecdotesWinter Survey AnecdotesFlier on Aspen air connection–Felt that flying to Aspen was cheaper than renting a car for 10 days,

and not needing the car

Copper Mountain destination traveler–Staying in a time-share at Silverthorne, needs a car to get to and

from the house. Wanted to know about availability of local rental cars at the train station

Day tripper on Season Pass–Not particularly time sensitive, since they have a season pass to the

ski slopes and don’t care if they have all day on the slopes.

Central City casino visitor–Comes to gamble several times a week; enjoys the scenery and

considers the ride up to be a part of the outing.


Base YearSocio-

Economics

Base YearSocio-

Economics

DemandModel

Calibration

DemandModel

CalibrationBase Year

MatrixBase Year

Matrix

RailStrategies

RailStrategies

TravelDemand

Model Run

TravelDemand

Model Run

FinancialAnalysisFinancialAnalysis

UserBenefit

Analysis

UserBenefit

Analysis

EconomicRent

Analysis

EconomicRent

Analysis

Four-ModeTransportNetwork

Four-ModeTransportNetwork

Origin-Destination

Data

Origin-Destination

Data

TripMatrices

TripMatrices

StatedPreference

Survey

StatedPreference

Survey

EconomicScenariosEconomicScenarios

ForecastYear TripMatrices

ForecastYear TripMatrices

RevenueAnalysisRevenueAnalysis

Demand Update: Demand Update: COMPASSCOMPASS™™ Model StructureModel Structure


Zone SystemZone System


Colorado Economic Scenarios: State Colorado Economic Scenarios: State Demography Office & TEMS High, Central Demography Office & TEMS High, Central and Low Case and Low Case –– Population GrowthPopulation Growth

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Mill

ions

High Case

Central Case (SDO, BEA and MPOscombined)

Low Case (BEA)

2035 High-Low Range - 9%

Average Annual Growth Rates (%):

2.01.81.6


Colorado Economic Scenarios: High, Colorado Economic Scenarios: High, Central and Low Cases Central and Low Cases –– Real Average Real Average Household Income GrowthHousehold Income Growth

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Thou

sand

s 20

07$

Low Case

Central Case

High Case

Average Annual Growth Rates (%): 1.2

1.0

0.6


Colorado Economic Scenarios: High, Colorado Economic Scenarios: High, Central and Low Case Central and Low Case –– Employment Employment GrowthGrowth

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Mill

ions

Central Case (SDO, BEAand MPOs combined)

Low Case (SDO and BEA)

High Case

1.71.82.0Average Annual

Growth Rates (%):


Base Highway NetworkBase Highway Network


Future Rail NetworkFuture Rail Network


Generalized Cost ComponentsGeneralized Cost Components

Frequency of Service

Convenience of TimesScheduleSchedule

On Time PerformanceReliabilityReliability

Operating Costs TollsParking(all divided by occupancy)

Fare

Access/Egress CostsCostsCosts

Travel Time

In-vehicle Time

Access/Egress Time

Number of Interchanges

Connection Wait Times

Terminal Wait Times

TimeTime

AutoAutoPublic ModesPublic Modes


VOT and VOF are needed to define VOT and VOF are needed to define Travel Utility Equation for the NetworksTravel Utility Equation for the Networks

WhereGCijp = Generalized cost of travel between zones i and j for purpose p

WhereTTijm = Travel time between zones i and j for mode m (in-vehicle time + waiting time + delay time + connect time + access/egress time + interchange penalty), with

waiting, delay, connect and access/egress time multiplied by two to account for the additional disutility felt by travelers for these activities

TCijmp = Travel cost between zones i and j for mode m and purpose p (fare + access/egress cost for public modes, operating costs for auto)

VOTmp = Value of Time for mode m and purpose pVOFmp = Value of Frequency for mode m and purpose pFijm = Frequency in departures per week between zones i and j for mode mOH = Operating hours per week

Uijp = ƒ(GCijp)

GCijmp = TTijm + TCijmp VOFmp x OH+VOTmp VOTmp x Fijm


Values of Time $/hrValues of Time $/hr

Trip Purposes Modes Business Commuter Tourist Other

Transit $13.20 $10.92 $11.39 $11.60 Rail $16.07 $17.50 $17.65 $15.92 Auto $18.91 $18.95 $18.86 $17.69 Air $48.69 $35.73 $33.34 $34.69


Coverage of Existing Colorado DataCoverage of Existing Colorado DataIntercity Trips (greater than 55 miles)Intercity Trips (greater than 55 miles)

Destination 1 2 …. 159 … 178

1 2

…

159

Data Available …

Ori

gina

tion

178 Data Unavailable

Dat

a U

nava

ilabl

e

Total Existing Data Percentage

Covered Zones 178 159 79.79% Population 4.9 Million 4.6 Million 93.70% Trips per year 100 Million 98 Million 95.5%


Base Year Trip SummaryBase Year Trip SummaryIntercity Trips (greater than 55 miles)Intercity Trips (greater than 55 miles)

Mode Car Bus Air Rail Trips 100,200,000 2,960,000 150,503 831,982 Market Share 96.21% 2.84% 0.14% 0.80%


Preliminary Base Year Rail Preliminary Base Year Rail RidershipRidership


Railroad Station Traffic: Passenger Railroad Station Traffic: Passenger Volumes (trips greater than 55 miles)Volumes (trips greater than 55 miles)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

DIA

Den

ver C

BD

Nor

th S

ubur

ban

Sou

th S

ubur

ban

Col

orad

o S

prin

gs

Nor

th F

ront

Ran

ge

Bla

ck H

awk

Gol

den

Bre

cken

ridge

Pue

blo

Vai

l

Asp

en

FortC

ollin

s

Cop

per M

T.

Avo

n

Key

ston

e

Ste

ambo

at S

prin

gs

Gra

nd J

ct.

Che

yenn

e, W

Y

Mon

umen

t

Gle

nwoo

d S

prin

gs

Cas

tle R

ock

Foun

tain

Trin

idad

Geo

rget

own

Eag

le (A

irpor

t)

Wal

senb

urg

Gyp

sum

Rifl

e

Mid

Val

ley

Idah

o S

prin

gs

Cra

ig

Hay

den

Airp

ort

Par

achu

te

Phi

ppsb

urg

Stations

Sta

tion

Pas

seng

er V

olum

es

Amtrak Service: 2 trains per dayAmtrak Service: 2 trains per day


Total DemandTotal Demand

α 1β 2β R2

Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Business -9.13974 -36.626 0.470345 57.304 0.920915 307.218 0.819

Commuter -10.1815 -28.7279 0.505322 44.382 0.960207 247.942 0.767 Tourist -14.9839 -99.727 0.573926 117.992 0.956997 228.389 0.643 Other -3.08006 -7.15492 0.26977 19.965 0.742494 168.657 0.613

TotalUSELnTripLn ×+×+= 21 )()( ββα where )( *03927.0*004316.1534404.1 AutoPublic GCUTotal eeLnU

−+ += for Business )( *044539.0*97189.0822572.3 AutoPublic GCUTotal eeLnU

−+ += for Commuter )( *014755.0*984576.0301322.3 AutoPublic GCUTotal eeLnU

−+ += for Tourist )( *075726.0*948322.060536.1 AutoPublic GCUTotal eeLnU

−+ += for Other


Mode Split Mode Split –– Base Hierarchy: Base Hierarchy: Slow SpeedSlow Speed

PublicModes

AutoMode

AirMode

SurfaceModes

TotalDemand

RailMode

BusMode


Rail Mode Rail Mode vs vs Bus Mode Bus Mode –– Level 1Level 1

BusRailBusRail GCGCPPLn ×−×+= 21)/( ββα

α 1β 2β R2

Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Business 0.53889 8.568 -0.01111 -81.952 -0.014473 -135.152 0.658

Commuter 0.990313 18.936 -0.0255 -210.949 -0.028183 -381.638 0.902 Tourist 2.551864 22.065 -0.01078 -67.8733 -0.010347 -201.344 0.707 Other -2.57302 -20.7771 -0.0157 -66.2623 -0.023674 -162.451 0.694


Surface Modes Surface Modes vs vs Air Mode Air Mode –– Level 2Level 2

AirSurfaceAirSurface GCUPPLn ×−×+= 21)/( ββα where )( *014473.0*01111.053889.0 BusRail GCGCSurface eeLnU

−− += for Business

)( *028183.0*0255.0990313.0 BusRail GCGCSurface eeLnU−− += for Commuter

)( *010347.0*01078.0551864.2 BusRail GCGCSurface eeLnU−− += for Tourist

)( *023674.0*0157.057302.2 BusRail GCGCSurface eeLnU−−− += for Other

α 1β 2β R2

Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Business -4.94237 -63.286 1.078908 358.194 -0.016375 -352.145 0.954

Commuter -3.07048 -53.922 1.038667 882.438 -0.028473 -784.575 0.986 Tourist -2.66938 -61.219 1.052402 486.498 -0.010385 -448.071 0.951 Other -3.42992 -29.855 1.079045 363.454 -0.024794 -344.276 0.94


Public Modes Public Modes vs vs Auto Mode Auto Mode –– Level 3Level 3

AutoPublicAutoPublic GCUPPLn ×−×+= 21)/( ββα where )( *016375.0*078908.194273.4 AirSurface GCUPublic eeLnU

−+− += for Business

)( *028473.0*038667.107048.3 AirSurface GCUPublic eeLnU−+− += for Commuter

)( *010385.0*052402.166938.2 AirSurface GCUPublic eeLnU−+− += for Tourist

)( *024794.0*079045.142992.3 AirSurface GCUPublic eeLnU−+− += for Other

α 1β 2β R2

Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Business 1.534404 68.892 1.004316 474.26 -0.03927 -492.097 0.919

Commuter 3.822572 243.601 0.97189 1017.555 -0.044539 -430.593 0.983 Tourist 3.301322 193.102 0.984576 550.053 -0.014755 -157.397 0.94 Other 1.60536 47.501 0.948322 409.67 -0.075726 -368.674 0.865


Highway–I-70 PEIS: No Action/Collaborative Recommendations–I-25 N PEIS: No Action–I-25 S PEIS: No Action

Transport StrategiesTransport Strategies

Other Public Modes–Air – System grows with traffic

– Fares constant in real terms

–Bus – System grows with traffic– Fares constant in real terms– Schedule impacted by congestion


U.S. Crude Oil Composite Acquisition U.S. Crude Oil Composite Acquisition Cost by Refiners Cost by Refiners ––Historic Data and the ForecastsHistoric Data and the Forecasts

Source: Energy Information Administration and TEMS, Inc.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year

2008

$ pe

r Bar

rel

Low Case Central Case High Case


U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices as a Function U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices as a Function of Crude Oil Prices (1993 of Crude Oil Prices (1993 ––2008)2008)

Source: TEMS, Inc and Energy Information Administration.

y = 2.598x + 100.246R2 = 0.979

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Crude Oil Composite Acquisition Cost (2008 $ per Barrel)

Gas

olin

e Pr

ice

(200

8 C

ents

per

Gal

lon)

Each $38 increase in Crude Oil = $1 on gas.


U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices --Historic Data and the ForecastsHistoric Data and the Forecasts

Source: TEMS, Inc and Energy Information Administration.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year

2008

$ pe

r Gal

lon

Low Case Central Case High Case


Highway Congestion:Highway Congestion:II--70 Segments (I70 Segments (I--70 PEIS)70 PEIS)


II--70 AADT and Segment Locations70 AADT and Segment Locations

Source: CDOT, www.dot.state.co.us/App_DTS_DataAccess/index.ctm

Seg 1 Seg 6 Seg 12


II--70 Hourly 70 Hourly Traffic Traffic Volumes: Volumes:

Segment 1 Segment 1 Eastbound Eastbound and and WestboundWestboundWeekdayWeekday

EB Weekday_Seg 1

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500

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fic V

olum

es

2007 2010 2020 2025 2035 2040 Capacity

WB Weekday_Seg 1

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2007 2010 2020 2025 2035 2040 Capacity



Segment 1 Segment 1 Eastbound Eastbound and and WestboundWestboundWeekendWeekend

EB Weekend_Seg 1

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WB Weekend_Seg 1

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es

2007 2010 2020 2025 2035 2040 Capacity



Segment 6 Segment 6 Eastbound Eastbound and and WestboundWestboundWeekdayWeekday

EB Weekday_Seg 6

0

500

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

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es

2007 2010 2020 2025 2035 2040 Capacity

WB Weekday_Seg 6

0

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2007 2010 2020 2025 2035 2040 Capacity



Segment 6 Segment 6 Eastbound Eastbound and and WestboundWestboundWeekendWeekend

EB Weekend_Seg 6

0

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2007 2010 2020 2025 2035 2040 Capacity

WB Weekend_Seg 6

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2007 2010 2020 2025 2035 2040 Capacity



Segment 12 Segment 12 Eastbound Eastbound and and WestboundWestboundTypical DayTypical Day

EB _Seg 12

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WB _Seg 12

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2007 2010 2020 2025 2035 2040 Capacity


II--70 Hours of 70 Hours of Congestion: Congestion:

Segments Segments 1 thru 12 1 thru 12 Eastbound and Eastbound and WestboundWestboundWeekdayWeekday

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122007

20350

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Hou

rs

Segments on I 70

Years

EB Weekday

2007 2010

2020 2025

2035 2040

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122007

20350

1

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3

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5

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Hou

rs

Segments on I 70

Years

WB Weekday

2007 2010

2020 2025

2035 2040



Segments Segments 1 thru 12 1 thru 12 Eastbound and Eastbound and Westbound Westbound WeekendWeekend

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122007

20350

1

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3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

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Hou

rs

Segments on I 70

Years

EB Weekend

2007 2010

2020 2025

2035 2040

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122007

20350

1

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rs

Segments on I 70

Years

WB Weekend

2007 2010

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2035 2040


II--25 AADT and Segment Locations25 AADT and Segment Locations

Source: CDOT, www.dot.state.co.us/App_DTS_DataAccess/index.ctm

Seg 1: Castle Rock Seg 2: Johnstown



Segment 1 Segment 1 Northbound Northbound and and SouthboundSouthboundTypical DayTypical Day

NB _Seg 1

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Segment 2Segment 2Northbound Northbound and and SouthboundSouthboundTypical DayTypical Day

NB _Seg 1

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SB _Seg 1

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Segments Segments 1 and 2 1 and 2 Northbound and Northbound and SouthboundSouthboundTypical DayTypical Day

1 22007

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Thank You.Thank You.

02.27.09 rmra steering committee presentation...

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