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ESTIMATING THE CHANGE IN ECOSYSTEM

SERVICES DUE TO SHALE GAS EXTRACTION IN

PENNSYLVANIA

David Murphy, Ph.D.Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Lab

Northern Illinois University

ACES and Ecosystem Markets 2012

Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

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Gas Extraction in the Marcellus Shale

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Hydraulic Fracturing and Horizontal

Drilling

Marcellus wells consume between 3 and 6 million gallons of freshwater per well

Google images

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How is this land-cover change

impacting the provision of

ecosystem services?

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Land-Cover Change Model: Convert Well

Location Data to Well-Pads

Well-Location

(up to 15 wells per pad)

Well-Pad Location

(120m x 120m = 3.5 ac)Lots of ArcGIS

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CARBON STORAGE ANDSEQUESTRATION: METHODS AND

RESULTS

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Carbon Storage

CarbonStorage

=above ground carbon + below groundcarbon + soil carbon +dead carbon

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AboveGround

BelowGround Soil Dead

Developed High Intensity 0 0 16 0

Barren Land 0 0 0 0

Deciduous Forest 120 85 70 15Evergreen Forest 89 95 83 12

Mixed Forest 115 96 67 12

Grassland/Herbaceous 22 6 33 10

Pasture/Hay 4 3 15 0Cultivated Crops 63 3 12 0

Carbon Pools (Tonnes per Ha)

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-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Deve

lope

dOp

enSp

ace

Deve

lope

dLo

wIntensity

Barre

nLand

Decid

uous

Forest

Evergree

nForest

Mixe

dForest

Shrub/

Scrub

Grassla

nd/H

erba

ceous

Pastu

re/Hay

Cul

vatedC

rop

TotalLosso

fStoredCarbon

(103Mg)

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Total Cost = $4 to $120 million

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RESERVOIR HYDROPOWERPRODUCTION: METHODS AND

(INTERMEDIATE) RESULTS

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Why Hydropower Production

Tradeoff between Land-cover change andwater consumption

Between 3 and 6 million gallons of water are

used per well in the marcellus

Land-cover change increases water run-off and(potentially) hydropower production

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Water YieldInputs: Precip, PoEt, Soil Depth,PAWC, Land Cover, Watershed

boundaries, Biophysical table(root depth, EtK)

Outputs: total and mean water

yield volume per sub-watershed(rasters), Watershed Yield Table(dbf attribute table), Sub-watershed Yield Table (dbf

attribute table)

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Water Yield

Outputs

Mean Water Yield

Total Water Yield (Volume)

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Water ScarcityInputs: Total and mean water

yield per sub-watershed, land-cover, Yield tables, waterdemand table, hydropowercalibration table

Outputs: Calibrated water yieldvolume, water consumptionvolume, watershed and sub-

watershed scarcity table

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W t S it

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Water Scarcity

Outputs

Water Consumption(Volume)

Calibrated Water Yield(Volume)

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Model Validation

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Water Consumption 2006 (m3) 68457000

Water Consumption 2011 (m3) 70269856

Difference 1812856

Number of Wells (low consumption) 160

Number of wells (high consumption) 80

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ValuationInputs: Calibrated water yield,water consumption,hydropower valuation

Outputs: hydropower energyproduction, hydropowerenergy value ($)

d l lid i

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Annual Hydropower

Production (GWh)

Actual 2341

InVEST Model 14179

Calibration Ratio

(Model / Actual)6

Model Validation

Gross Adjusted

Annual Ecosystem

Service19.0 3.2

50 Year Value of

Ecosystem Service

951.3 158.5

*Assumed $0.07 per kwh

Hydropower Valuation (Billion $)*

***Change in hydropower production from gas extraction isinsignificant

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Questions/Comments?

Contact Informationdjmurphy@niu.edu, djmurphy@anl.gov

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Appendix A: Points to Wellpad

Conversion in ArcGIS

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Convert X,Y coordinates from

well data to point features

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Buffer the wells by 100meters

** The borders were dissolved so thatany overlapping buffers become asingle feature (next step)

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Convert the dissolved buffersto individual features

In this case, the ActiveWell_Bufferfeature is a single feature that isconverted to multiple features. Allbuffer features that do not intersectanother buffer feature are split

into individual features. In thiscase, 1923 features were created.

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Join the well data (from the pointfile) to the buffered features

The spatial join allowsthe user to attach data

from the input featuresto the join features. Inthis case, the sum of gasproduction and gasquantity were calculatedas well as the average

lat/long of the wells.

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The average lat/long values (ofthe wells) from the spatial joinare used to create wellpad

centroids

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Wellpad centroids arethen converted to a raster

with 120m resolutioncells

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Wellpad raster is

resampled so that the120m cells match the 30mresolution of the NLCDraster

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Is Null tool assigns all no data

values within the input raster(Resample wellpads) as 1. All othervalues are given a 0. In this case, allwellpads are 0 and the remainingcells are 1.

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The output raster from the previousstep is reclassified so that allwellpads (formerly classified as 0)are now classified as 24 (matchingthe appropriate NLCD classification)

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The output raster from theprevious step is reclassifiedso that all wellpads (formerly

classified as 0) are nowclassified as 24 (matching theappropriate NLCDclassification)

Pre Wellpad Development Post Wellpad Development

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Appendix B: Data Sources

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Data Sources: Water Yield Annual Precipitation

o

Prism Climate Group (Oregon State University) Potential Evapotranspiration

o Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Soil Depth and Plant Available Water Content

o USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service Land Use

o Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium(MRLC)

Watersheds and Sub-watershedso U.S. Geological Survey

Biophysical Attributeso Reclassification of the sample biophysical table

Carbon Pool Data

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OID C_above C_below C_soil C_dead LULC LULC_Name

0 0 0 0 0 11 Open Water

1 0 0 0 0 12 Perrenial Ice/Snow

2 6 11 10 3 21 Developed Open Space3 10 7 40 1 22 Developed Low Intensity

4 1 1 3 0 23 Developed Medium Intensity

5 0 0 16 0 24 Developed High Intensity

6 0 0 0 0 31 Barren Land

7 120 85 70 15 41 Deciduous Forest

8 89 95 83 12 42 Evergreen Forest

9 115 96 67 12 43 Mixed Forest

10 0 0 0 0 51 Dwarf Shrub

11 39 11 81 2 52 Shrub/Scrub

12 22 6 33 10 71 Grassland/Herbaceous

13 0 0 0 0 72 Sedge/Herbaceous14 0 0 0 0 73 Lichens

15 0 0 0 0 74 Moss

16 4 3 15 0 81 Pasture/Hay

17 63 3 12 0 82 Cultivated Crops

18 9 4 23 0 90 Woody Wetland

19 0 0 0 0 95 Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands

Carbon Pool Data

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Data Sources: Water Scarcity

Water Demand Table

o Reclassification of sample data to match NLCDclassifications

Hydropower Calibration TableoNational Inventory of Dams (U.S. Army Corps of

Engineers)

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Data Sources: Valuation

Hydropower Valuation TableoNational Inventory of Dams (U.S. Army Corps of

Engineers)

Appendix C: Full list of inputs and

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Appendix C: Full list of inputs andoutputs per model for Reservoir

Hydropower Production

ld

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Water YieldData Needs

Annual Precipitation (raster)

Potential Evapotranspiration(raster)

Soil Depth (raster)

Plant Available WaterContent (raster)

Land Cover (raster)

Watershed and Sub-

watershed boundaries(shapefile/feature class)

Biophysical Table (dbfattribute table)

Outputs

Total Water YieldVolume per sub-watershed (raster)

Mean Water Yield per

sub-watershed (raster)

Watershed Yield Table(dbf attribute table)

Sub-watershed YieldTable (dbf attributetable)

i

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Water ScarcityData Needs

Total Water Yield Volume per

sub-watershed (raster)

Mean Water Yield per sub-watershed (raster)

Land Use (raster)

Watershed and Sub-watershedboundaries (shapefile/featureclass)

Watershed Yield Table (dbfattribute table)

Sub-watershed Yield Table (dbf

attribute table)

Water Demand Table (dbfattribute Table)

Hydropower Calibration Table(dbf attribute table)

Outputs

Calibrated Water YieldVolume (raster)

Water ConsumptionVolume (raster)

Watershed ScarcityTable (dbf attributetable)

Sub-watershed ScarcityTable (dbf attributetable)

H d V l i

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Hydropower ValuationData Needs

Calibrated Water YieldVolume (raster)

Water ConsumptionVolume (raster)

Watershed and Sub-

watershed boundaries(shapefile/feature class)

Watershed Scarcity Table(dbf attribute table)

Sub-watershed ScarcityTable (dbf attribute table)

Hydropower ValuationTable (dbf attribute table)

Outputs

Hydropower Energy(sub-watershed energyproduction)

Hydropower Value (sub-

watershed hydropowervalue)

Watershed HydropowerValue (dbf table)

Sub-watershedHydropower Value (dbftable)