04 martin stopford marine money 21st feb 2013.pdf
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 1
Ship Finance at the CrossroadsMarine Money Hamburg
21st February 2013
What toExpect
From the shippingmarkets
Martin StopfordPresident,
Clarkson Research
Futurevision
ofm
aritime
Industry
1. Long Cold Winter2. Costly Bunkers, Cheap Ships3. Geopolitical Change4. Evolving Offshore Era?5. New Container Business Model
So Manychallenges, so
manyexpectations
What makes the business climate so difficult today is that shipping investors must dealwith several major changes taking place simultaneously. What are the challenges, howwill they interact and where they might lead?
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 2
1. Ship owners are restless
What shall Ibuy now?
5. Governments intervening
ShippingsWild West isbeing tamed
4. Financiers are VERY fragile
Shall we say30 cents inthe $, Sir? What about
our $1.2billion loan?
Increasinginvestments isnot the plan"
3. Shippers happy2. Shipbuilders...??!!
We buildships.. so
please ORDERSOME!
WHERE
ARE
WE
TODAY?
It is the 22nd troughsince 1741 and coulddrag on
Take it seriously
Expectation 1: Long, Cold Winter?The immediate challenge is to get through the recession in one piece.
It's gonna becold, it's gonnabe grey, and it's
gonna last
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5019
8019
8119
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0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
13
Cla
rkse
aIn
dex
$000
/day
Clarksea Index : weighted average earnings by tankers, bulkers, containerships & gas
2004$39,000/day
2008$50,000/day
$22,800/day
2000$24,000/day
Wow
$8,500/day $12,000/day$14,000/day $9,938/day
Shipping Cycle 1965-2013
2013$7,910
New low of $7,900 per day in Feb 2013
Not Much Laid Up Tonnage
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Mdw
t
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Bulkers Tankers % Tanker TCShows tonnage of ships laid up on a monthly basis
Laid up tonnage (notreally tracked) is still low.
Surplus absorbed byslow steaming, waiting
etc
% on T/C
In the1970s the
spotmarket
was small-most of the
fleet oncharter
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5019
6519
6619
6719
6819
6919
7019
7119
7219
7319
7419
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
12
Cla
rkse
aIn
dex
$000
/day
(Clarksea Index is a weighted average of earnings bytankers, bulkers, containerships & gas.) 2004
$39,000/day
2008$50,000/day
$22,800/day
2000$24,000/day
Extraordinarilyprosperous
$8,500/day $12,000/day$14,000/day $9,938/day
Shipping Cycle 1965-2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Cla
rkse
aIn
dex
$000
/day
(Clarksea Index is a weighted average of earnings bytankers, bulkers, containerships & gas.) 2004
$39,000/day
2008$50,000/day
Here
$22,800/day
2000$24,000/day
Wow
$8,500/day $12,000/day$14,000/day $9,938/day
Shipping Cycle 1965-2012
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 4
Three Speed Trade
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%19
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
12
Major Bulks Crude Oil ImportsContainer Linear (Container)
% growth Container cargo still growing very fast
Containers
FORECAST
The Merchant Shipbuilding Cycle
020406080
100120140160
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Deliveries Scrapping
Deliveries61 m dwt in
1976
Deliveries162.8 m dwtin 2012 (est)
Last phaseof 1970s
scrapping!
Million DwtShipyards expand to replace the ships built in the 1970s boom
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 7
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
180019
6519
6719
6919
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
1120
1320
15
M. Dwt
-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
% SurplusWorld Cargo Fleet 1963-2013
Demand for seatransport runs
ahead of supply
Surplus shippingcapacity (% right axis)
From 2009 world fleet (midyear) surges ahead of
demand
World Shipping Supply/Demand
Change 2: The Cost Of Energy
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$/day cost
Bunker cost 1 Year TC Rate
THE SHIP USED TO COST MUCH MORE THAN BUNKERS BUT. TODAY BUNKERS COST MORE THAN THE SHIP.
2005Ship costs
3x fuel
2012Ship costs
half fuel
Based on Aframax tanker, 1 year TC rate and Rotterdam bunker price
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 5
Shipbuilding Deliveries Now 10% fleet
-5%-3%-1%1%3%5%7%9%
11%19
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
11
Trade growth (5 yr average) Deliveries % Fleet
Compares the % growth of trade with shipyard deliveries % fleet% perannumgrowth
Three Speed Trade
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Major Bulks Crude Oil ImportsContainer Linear (Container)
% growth Container cargo still growing very fast
Containers
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 4
FORECAST
The Merchant Shipbuilding Cycle
020406080
100120140160
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Deliveries Scrapping
Deliveries 61m dwt in 1976
Deliveries169.3 mdwt in
2012 (est)
Last phaseof 1970s
scrapping!
Million DwtShipyards expand to replace the ships built in the 1970s boom
Sea Trade Growing About 3% a Year
-5%-3%-1%1%3%5%7%9%
11%
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
% perannumgrowth
Graph shows 5 year moving average of % growth of sea trade
Trend about 3% pa
Note surge to 5% pa in 2000s
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 5
World Shipbuilding Shares
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
%CG
TDe
liver
ies
Europe
Japan
Korea
China
China overtakes Korea
Orderbook in 2013 Nearly the 1990s
10% 10% 11% 11% 11%14% 14% 14%
20%24% 25%
33%
47%51%
41%36%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
%fle
et(D
wt)
Orderbook % Fleet (Dwt)
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 6
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
17019
5019
5219
5419
5619
5819
6019
6219
6419
6619
6819
7019
7219
7419
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
0620
0820
1020
12
M. Dwt shipdemand
Chart shows Trade expansion each year converted into dwt demand
Expansion demand
The Expansion Demand For New Ships
Expansion demand
1967-1973 tradegrew at 203 mtonnes a year
2002-2008 tradegrew at 267 mtonnes a year
This chart suggests that the need for new ships to expandthe fleet did not grow all that fast in the last decade,especially when troughs are taken into account
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
M. Dwt
Now add the tonnage of ships replaced eachyear to give the total requirement for newships. The average 2003-2012 was 56m dwt
Expansion demand
Now Add Replacement Demand
Expansion demand
Average 56 m dwt pa
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 7
DELIVERIESDWARF DEMANDSO IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO CLEAR THEBACKLOG
Expansion demand
Now Compare Demand With deliveries
Expansion demand
Expectation 2: Cheap Ships, Costly Energy
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$/day cost
Bunker cost 1 Year TC Rate
THE SHIP COST MORE BUNKERS BUT TODAY BUNKERS COST MORE
Based on Aframax tanker, 1 year TC rate and Rotterdam bunker price
2005Ship costs
3x fuel
2012Ship costs
half fuel
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 8
Fuel Consumption Ships
Fuel consumption ofships has not improvedmuch in the last 13years
The containershipconsumption was about140 tpd at 24.5 knots(latest 136 tpd)
The bulker was about35 tpd at 14.5 knots(latest 33 tpd) 80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Panamax bulker
Panamax containership
Index of fuel consumption in MPG(higher is better)
Fuel Consumption Cars
Fuel consumption ofcars did not improvemuch until last year
The Ford Focus 1.6Zedtec averaged about39 mpg.
The 2011 modelspushed that up to 47mpg and the 2012model to 56 mpg
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Ford FocusPanamax bulkerPanamax containership
Index of Miles Per Gallon
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 9
Fuel Consumption Cars
Fuel consumption ofcars did not improvemuch until last year
The Ford Focus 1.6Zedtec averaged about39 mpg.
The 2011 modelspushed that up to 47mpg and the 2012model to 56 mpg
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Ford FocusPanamax bulkerPanamax containership
Index of Miles Per Gallon
2 4
10
23
10 10
2024
12 14 11
19
138
33
18 20
13
73 3
05
101520253035404550
unde
r8.5
8.5-
99-
9.5
9.5-
1010
-10.
510
.5-1
111
-11.
511
.5-1
212
-12.
512
.5-1
313
-13.
513
.5-1
414
.14.
514
.5-1
515
-20
20-2
525
-30
30-3
535
-40
40-4
545
-50
Numberof months
Clarksea Index earnings band $000/day
BOOMNORMALSLUMPtoday we are here, thelowest since 1990
Months since 1990 that Clarksea Index fellin each earnings band shown below
fasterslower need flexi-speed?
Less Horsepower, Less LossesIndex covers tankers, bulkers, LPG and containers
More Horsepower, More Profits
slower
faster
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 10
My Expectation For the Future is Flexible77,000 Dwt Panamax Bulk Carrier
14.2metresdraft
Main engine12,670 HP at 89rpm
Side rollinghydraulic
hatch covers
7 cargo holds, each with capacity for 12-13,000 m3 or 10 -11,000 tons depending
on density of cargo being carried
Corrugated bulkhead
Water line
Double bottom used for water ballast
No 4 hold floodable for extrawater ballast in heavy weather
No 1 hold12,600m3
No 2 hold13,300m3
No 3 hold13,000 m3
No 4 hold12,300 m3floodable
No 5 hold13,000 m3
No 6 hold13,000 m3
No 7 hold12,200 m3
Crane
Steering gearroom
Anchor
Prop shaft
Hatchcoaming
225 m LOA, 77,000 dwt
2. New propellertuned to revised
engine spec
1. De-rate enginefor improvedgrams/kWh
3. Cut out oneturbo charger &slide injectors
5. Tune Enginewith electroniccontrol system
7. Improved trimmanagement
4. Waste heatrecovery system
6. Improved lowload cylinderlubrication
8. Hull coatings,less ballast, airresistance etc.
07/03/2013 Martin Stopford 20
Expectation 3: Changing Geopolitical SceneTHE OECD COUNTRIES NO LONGER DOMINATE SEA TRADE
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 11
M. East3%Africa5%S America5%
China2% W Europe
36%
N America16%
Japan18%
SE Asia14%
Oceania1%
The World is Changing 1990
OECD 70%
M. East3%Africa5%
S America5%
China22%
W Europe21%
N America11%
Japan9%
SE Asia23%
Oceania1%
The World is Changing 2012
OECD 41%
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 12
Expectation 4: Dominant Offshore Flag Era
237 255294 311
323 335359
383407 407
441 451468 480 486
501552
603649
699748
800852
995
-
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1,000.0
198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
National & Foreign Flag Fleets M GT, , 0%
Nationalflag 396 mdwt, 28%
ForeignFlag 995mdwt, 72%
National flag fleet
Foreign flag fleet
72% OF THE WORLD FLEET FLAGGED ABROAD & GROWING
Flag State Regulation Will Get MoreTechnical (like airlines?)
Requirement that new ships mustcomply with the EEDI, attemptsto drive efficiency improvements
The focus on air emissions ballast water; recycling; energy efficiency and the carbon footprint.
The dilemma of gas oil versusscrubbers and the uncertaintyover of which ballast watersystem technology do not help
Many shipyards, after a decadewhen they were able to sellstandard ships, are struggling torespond.
-
Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 13
Expectation 5: New Container Business Model?
Over the centuries technicaldevelopments in liner shippinghas been not so much acontinuous process as anoccasional leap forwardprecipitated by a compellingcall for change.
In between there have beenlong periods of conservatism".Ronnie Swayne, Chairman OCL 1973 y = 6.5684e
0.0888x
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Billion tons
This chart shows containercargo growing to 1.5 billiontonnes today. In 2009 thetrade had its first seriouswobble.
Will the exponentialtrend of 8.8% trendcontinue?
The Container Business Model is Tired
General Cargo Transport In the 1950s, the ocean-going freighter was dying. The
general forecast was that it would be replaced by air freight,except for bulk commodities.
Costs were rising and it took longer to get merchandisedelivered by freighter as one port after another became badlycongested.
This, in turn, increased pilferage at the docks. In response the industry built faster ships, and ships that
required less fuel and a smaller crew. It concentrated on theeconomics of the ship while at sea and in transit from oneport to another costs that were already low
The solution was to uncouple loading from stowing. Do theloading on land, where there is ample space and where it canbe performed before the ship is in port, so that all that has tobe done is to put on and take off pre-loaded freight.
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Marine Money 21st Feb 2013 20/2/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 14
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan-
96Ja
n-97
Jan-
98Ja
n-99
Jan-
00Ja
n-01
Jan-
02Ja
n-03
Jan-
04Ja
n-05
Jan-
06Ja
n-07
Jan-
08Ja
n-09
Jan-
10Ja
n-11
Jan-
12
Billio
nto
nnes
ofca
rgo
..
SeriveOperatorOwned
50%
CharterOwner50%
Container Fleet Oct 2012
Container Fleet By Ownership
OWNED BY SERVICE OPERATORS
Conclusions on Managing Change1. Key strands in strategy are:-2. Manage through the supply
overhang: Lower earnings in comingdecade will make cost control key,so play the margins.
3. Adjust to bunker cost regime: itschanging the balance of maritimeeconomics
4. Adapt to Change: The world ischanging - remember thatrecessions are there to driveshipping to respond to thesechanges
Amarillo Slim, was fourtimes the World Pokerchampion. His tips are:-
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 9
The Ship Speed & Consumption Matrix
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7
Ship
cost
chan
ge$0
00as
ship
slow
s
Speed of ship (knots)
21
3
4
Shows effect on fuel cost (green lines) & the cost of shipping capacity (brown line) of changingship operating speed in 1 knot increments on a 5000 mile voyage)
Future of Fuel will be Frugal
Higher cost is changing the economic balanceand behaviour will change
Things that did not work will now work, but itwill take time and committment
Charterers will become more fuel conscious. Look for the pressure points:-
Direct consumption v indirect consumption Measurement of efficiency Marketing and public image
-
Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 10
25/01/2013 Martin Stopford 19
Change 3: Geography & Political Hegemony
0.20
0.6
0.8
3.80
6.30
7.50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Tonnes of sea imports per person a year
Japan
Europe
N. America
China
S America
Africa
2000-20506 billion Non-OECDpopulation want to
consume at OECD levels
1950-2000OECDs 1.3 billion
population
The Changing World
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 11
The Changing World of Trade0
500
1,00
0
1,50
0
2,00
0
2,50
0
Million tons imports
W EuropeN America
JapanSE Asia
ChinaS America
AfricaM. East
Oceania
M. East3%
Oceania1%
SE Asia23%
Japan9%
N America11%
W Europe21%
China22%
S America5%
Africa5%
Sea Trade in 2011
OECD42%
NonOECD58%
World Sea Trade ScenarioWill Sea Trade will grow from 10 billion tons to 27 billion tons?
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
Bill
ion
tons
trad
e
Total TradeSea Trade Scenario
27 billion tons of tradein 2057 looks extreme.If it happens, will it putpressure on resources
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 12
The Future Geopolitical Landscape The USA Hegemony was a
major driver ofglobalization.
It has been fading since the1970s and this will weakenfuture trade
China is different lessdominant, more imperialist
The future has less lowhanging fruit, more conflictsof interest, more activetrading partners.
Change 4: Flag State Regulation Escalating
Requirement that new ships mustcomply with the EEDI, a clearattempt to drive efficiencyimprovements
The focus on air emissions ballast water; recycling; energy efficiency and the carbon footprint.
The dilemma of gas oil versusscrubbers and the uncertaintyover of which ballast watersystem technology do not help
Many shipyards, after a decadewhen they were able to sellstandard ships, are struggling torespond.
-
Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 13
Merchant Shipping Offshore Trend Continues
Offshore Flag TonnageNudges 1 Billion GT
72% of the merchantfleet is now registeredoffshore
Up from 42% 23 yearsago
We are evolving into atruly stateless industry W orld fle e t M dwtOwne rship 1989 1997 2009 2012
Na tiona l 334.3 295.0 347.0 396.5Fore ign 237.2 407.3 748.0 995.3T ota l 571.5 702.4 1,105.0 1,391.8
Na tiona l 58% 42% 31% 28%Fore ign 42% 58% 68% 72%T ota l 100% 100% 100% 100%
-
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1,000.0
198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
Foreign Flag
National Flag
National & Foreign Flag Fleets M GT
Top Shipowning Nations 2012National Foreign Total Foreign %
Japan 20.5 197.2 217.7 91%Greece 64.9 159.1 224.1 71%Germany 17.3 108.3 125.6 86%China 51.7 72.3 124.0 58%USA 7.2 47.5 54.6 87%S Korea 17.1 39.1 56.2 70%Chinese 4.1 35.0 39.0 90%Bermuda 2.3 27.7 30.0 92%Norway 15.8 27.3 43.1 63%Denmark 13.5 26.5 40.0 66%Canada 2.5 19.4 21.8 89%Taiwan 28.9 16.6 45.5 36%Singapore 22.1 16.5 38.6 43%UK 2.0 16.4 18.4 89%Russia 5.4 15.0 20.4 73%
Flag of RegistrationM GT
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 14
Top FLAG STATES IN 2012
Top 10 Flag StatesStatus 2008 2012 % Increase
Panama Open 182.9 227.5 24%Liberia Open 81 128.5 59%Marshall Is Open 44.1 84.6 92%Hong Kong Open 39.3 77.2 96%Singapore Open 40.3 58.2 44%Bahamas Open 47.5 54.7 15%Malta Open 29.2 44.1 51%China National 27.2 43.6 60%Greece National 36.7 43.1 17%Cyprus Open 20.4 20.5 0%
548.6 782.0 43%
The Future of Regulation
The UN based system isfragile and strugglingwith complex technicalchallenges
The Port state regime isimpulsive, proactive andpolitically motivated
Surge of piracy has raisedmany issues about thepolicing of trade lanes
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 15
Change 5: Information & Communications
Fibre optic cable network
GordonMoore
Invented Moores Law
Conclusions on Strategy1. Key strands in strategy are:-2. Manage through the supply
overhang: Lower earnings in comingdecade will make cost control key,so play the margins.
3. Adjust to bunker cost regime: itschanging the balance of maritimeeconomics
4. Adapt to Change: Ship designschanging due to regulations. Makesure todays eco-ship isnttomorrows White Elephant.
Amarillo Slim, was fourtimes the World Pokerchampion. His tips are:-
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Copenhagen BLUE Business & ShippingConference
25/01/2013
Martin Stopford, President, Clarkson Research 16
Amarillo Slims Advice
1. Play the players, not the cards.2. Watch them from the minute
you sit down.3. Play fast in a slow game , slow in
a fast game.4. Never get out when you are
winning.5. Look for the sucker and, if you
dont see one , get up and leavebecause the sucker is you