04 rogner world energy d&s

8/13/2019 04 Rogner World Energy D&S

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IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency

World Energy Demand and Supply

H-Holger RognerHead, Planning & Economic Studies Section (PESS)

Department of Nuclear Energy

IAEA

utline

!" Energy system

#" $urrent situation

%" Driers of energy demand

'" Resources & tecnology

" *uture outloo+


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IAEA

coal oil natural gas sunlight uranium wind biomass

coal hydro oil cleaning separation benefication liquef- gasifi-

mine dam rig action cation

hydro thermal power oil nuclear generating photovoltaic wind

station plant refinery station cell converter

What

Nature

Provides

Energy

Sector

What

People

Want

electricity gasoline methanol methane hydrogen heat

Sources

Extraction

Treatment

Conversion

Technologies

Distribution

Service

Technologies

Currencies

(fuels)

Services

electricity grid gas grid truck dewar railway district heat grid

aircraftautomobile light

bulb

telephone furnace microwave

oven

PC

communicationtransportation keeping warm/cold food

health care securitypotable water consumer goods

rcitecture of te Energy System

Efficiency &

Infrastructure

IAEA

coal oil natural gas sunligt uranium ind .iomass

coal hydro oil cleaning separation benefication liquef- gasifi-

mine dam rig action cation

ydro termal poer oil nuclear generating potooltaic ind

station plant refinery station cell conerter

Primary

energy

Secondary

energy

Energy

serices

electricity gasoline metanol metane ydrogen heat

Sources

Extraction

Treatment

Conversion

Technologies

Distribution

Service

Technologies

Currencies

(fuels)

Services

electricity grid gas grid truck dewar railwaydistrict heat

grid

aircraftautomo.ile ligt

bulb

teleponefurnace microae

oven

PC

communicationtransportation +eeping arm/cold food

ealt care securitypota.le water consumer goods

rcitecture of te Energy System

*inal

energy


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IAEA

*irst 0a of 1ermodynamics2 Energy

conseration

169 EJ

144 EJ

22 EJ

161 EJ

496 EJ

Primary 496 EJ

Waste and rejectedenergy

Secondary 352 EJ

Final 330 EJ

Useful 169 EJ

Crude Oil

Examples

Coal

Gasoline Electricity

Gasoline Electricity

Kinetic Radiant

Truck Grid

Car Light Bulb

Passenger-km Light

Energy

Conversion

Distribution

End use

Services

Refinery Power Plant

IAEA

Recent callenges and orrisome trends

Economic concerns ae focused attention on sort-term energy security to te detriment of longer termsustaina.le deelopment o.3ecties

Post-*u+usima, a .umpy road aead for nuclear

poer 4EN turmoil raised 5uestions a.out region6s

inestment plans

Some +ey trends are pointing in orrying directions2

CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high (2010)

Energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2nd

straight year

Spending on oil imports is near record highs


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IAEA

7lo.al primary energy supply, !89 -#998

9

!99

#99

%99

'99

99

:99

!89 !8; !


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IAEA

7lo.al primary energy supply, !


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IAEA

Historical car.on intensity of energy supplies

k

O

2/GJ

12

1

!

"

#

2

1!$ 1!%$ 1& 1&2$ 1&$ 1&%$ 2

all '( carriers and CO2emissionsw/o biomass CO

2)but including biomass GJ*

biomass 112 kg CO2/GJ

coal +" kg CO2/GJ

oil %,+, kg CO2/GJ

gas $"+1 kg CO2/GJ

IAEA

$ar.on emissions

9

)

!9

!)

#9

#)

%9

%)

!


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IAEA

Structure of glo.al primary energy supply

1otal primary energy

supply (1PES) in #99


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IAEA

Structure of glo.al final energy use, #99/

yr

Residential:1. Rapid introduction of

strict building codes2. Accelerate retrofit rate

to 3% of stock peryear (x 4 improvementby 2050)

3. Improved electricalappliances

Residential:1. Rapid introduction of

strict building codes2. Accelerate retrofit rate

to 3% of stock peryear (x 4 improvementby 2050)

3. Improved electricalappliances

Transport:1. Technology

efficiency (50%)2. Reduced private

mobility (eg urbanplanning)

3. Infrastructure forpublic transport +railway freight

Transport:1. Technology

efficiency (50%)2. Reduced private

mobility (eg urbanplanning)

3. Infrastructure forpublic transport +railway freight

IAEA

AE nuclear poer pro3ections (RDS-!)

Pro3ections of future role of nuclear poer arepresented as 0W and HA7H estimates

Pro3ections are N1 predictions

1e RDS-! estimates sould .e ieed as erygeneral grot trends ose alidity must .econstantly su.3ected to critical reie

Economic grot and structural economic cange

Energy intensity

1ecnology performance and costs

Energy resource aaila.ility and future fuel prices

Energy policy and pysical, enironmental and economicconstraints"


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IAEA 85

$urrent status of glo.al nuclear poer

'%' NPPs operating(%:;": 7We)

:% NPPs underconstruction (:!"9 7We)

CS !9' (!)

*rance 8 (!)

>apan 9 (#)

Russia %% (!9)

$anada !8 Oorea #! ()

Andia #9 (:)

$ina !: (#:)

As of 31 December 2011

IAEA

Nuclear poer today

n %! Decem.er #9!!, '' nuclear poer plants (NPPs)operated in %9 countries orldide, it a totalinstalled capacity of %:8"# 7We"

KWere doesnuclearpoer go

from ereQL

9

9

!99

!9

#99

#9

%99

%9

'99

!


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IAEA


Units in Operation: 434367.6 GWe

Units under construction: 6361.0 GWe

Source: IAEA PRIS

Status: 31 December 2011

LatinAmerica

0.9%

NorthAmerica

28.6%

WesternEurope27.6%

Eastern

Europe/$AS15.7%

South

East5.3%

MiddleEast0.2%

FarEast

21.2%

Africa0.5%

LatinAmerica

3.1%

NorthAmerica

1.5%

WesternEurope

3.1%

EasternEurope/CIS

26.2%

South East10.8%

Far East55.4%

IAEA

$onstruction starts

9

!9

#9

%9

'9

9

no"

ofconstru

ctions

tarts


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IAEA

9

!9

#9

%9

'9

9

no"

ofconstructions

tarts

$onstruction starts

IAEA

Post *u+usima2 Cncanged driers .eind terenaissance in te interest in nuclear poer

7lo.al energy demand is set to gro4uclear power e+pands supply options

Enironmental pressures are rising4uclear power has low life,cycle "5" emissions

Energy supply security .ac+ on te politicalagenda4uclear power contributes to energy security

Relia.le .ase load electricity at predicta.le andafforda.le costs for meeting 4D7s4uclear power offers stable and predictablegeneration costs based on low resource costs


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IAEA

AE G 0W pro3ection

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

history

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

20102011

7W(e)

#9%92 Nuclear sare in glo.al electricity generation2 !!"8@

IAEA

AE G HA7H pro3ection

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

history

20052006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

7W(e

)

#9%92 Nuclear sare in glo.al electricity generation2 !'"9@


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IAEA

AE2 0o Nuclear $ase - ssumptions

E$D2 No ne .uilds .eyond tose already under

construction

Non-E$D2 nly 9@ ne .uilds compared it te

Ne Policy Scenario

Sorter life times for e=isting plants (' s 9 years)and ne .uilds (9 s years)

$ase deeloped to e=plore te implications of a lo

nuclear future

IAEA

0o Nuclear $ase - Amplications

?y #9# glo.al nuclear generating capacity slips to %#9 7W

(#9!92 %; 7W NPS2 :9 7W)

Nuclear6s mar+et sare drops to ;@ (NPS2!%@)

7ies a .oost to coal, gas and renea.les (in tat order), .ut

increases import .ills, reduces diersity & ma+es it arder tocom.at climate cange

?y #9%, compared it te Ne Policies Scenario2

coal demand increases .y tice ustralia6s steam coal e=ports

natural gas demand increases .y to-tirds Russia6s natural gas net

e=ports

poer- sector $# emissions increase .y :"#@ of 9"< 7t $#

?iggest implications are for countries it limited energy

resources tat planned to rely on nuclear poer


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IAEA

$oncluding remar+s

Rising incomes & population ill accelerate te demand for

energy serices

il supply diersity is diminising, ile ne options are opening

up for natural gas

7lo.ally, energy resources are plentiful and pose no limiting

constraint G .ut timely inestment re5uired

0ess nuclear ould lead to iger $# emissions, increased

energy prices and groing energy import .ills

Energy conersion tecnologies ill .ecome increasingly capital

intensie

Despite steps in te rigt direction, te door to #$ is closing

IAEA

AE

6atoms for peace'


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Units in Operation: 434367.6 GWe

Units under construction: 6361.6 GWe

Source: IAEA PRIS

Status: 6 December 2011

LatinAmerica

0.9%

NorthAmerica

28.6%

WesternEurope27.6%

EasternEurope/CI

S15.7%

South

East5.3%

MiddleEast0.2%

FarEast

21.2%

Africa0.5%

LatinAmerica

3.1%

NorthAmerica

1.5%

WesternEurope

3.1%

EasternEurope/CIS

26.2%

South East10.8%

Far East55.4%

04 rogner world energy d&s

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