•

• MMMm

Resilience 360

DHL Global Forwarding CENAM & Caribbean

January 17, 2019

Are you ready?MAY 21, 2019

Nick Wildgoose, Senior Consultant RESILIENCE360

Mitigating risk in Modern Supply Chains

Global supply chain risks are a prevailing topic�

99% of companies experienced a

supply chain disruption in the past 5

years¹

57% of them with the potential to cause

bankruptcy¹

�resulting in long-standing consequences for businesses

30-40% lower stock returns for impacted

firms over the subsequent three years²

2% of surveyed disruptions caused

damages over 10 year period >$100M3

Sources: ¹Brüning & Bendul, 2017. ²Hendricks & Singhal, 2005. ³BCI/Zurich

Insurance Supply Chain Resilience Report 10 Year Trend

53%

41%

33%

30%

27%

23%

19%

19%

15%

15%

14%

14%

13%

13%

11%

10%

9%

9%

8%

7%

5%

2%

Unplanned IT or telecommunications outage

Adverse weather

Cyber attacks and data breach

Loss of talent/skills

Transport network disruption

New laws or regulations

Outsourcer failure

Health & Safety incident

Currency exchange rate volatility

Fire

Human illness

Energy scarcity

Insolvency in the supply chain

Civil unrest/conflict

Business ethics incident

Act of terrorism

Environmental incident

Intellectual Property violation

Earthquake/tsunami

Industrial dispute

Lack of credit

Animal disease

2018 Ranking of High-Impact Supply Chain Disruptions

Source: BCI Supply Chain Resilience Report 2018

Global Forwarding, FreightLeader in the forwarding business

ExpressNo. 1 in international express delivery220

Countries &

Territories

Post – eCommerce – Parcel (PeP)Europe’s largest postal service

Supply ChainNo. 1 in contract logistics4

million tons

AFR

3.25million TEU

OFR

~300 m International Express

Shipments per year

13.2 sqmsquare meters of

warehouse space

520,000Employees Worldwide

59 mLetters per workday in

Germany

Deutsche Post DHL Group, a Data Rich Company�

5

Disruptions Come in All Forms

May 2, 2018 FORD supplier fire shuts down

F-150 production for 19 days

Sept 22, 2017: Hurricane Maria shuts down

nearly 50 pharma plants in Puerto Rico

June 27, 2017: Maersk global IT breakdown

caused by cyber-attack

!

!

!

LOCAL

NEWS

Global Trade Disruptions

United States

25% import tariffs on

Chinese industrial

equipment & chemicals

United States

25% duties on 800+ Chinese

products including

semiconductors, low-tech

machinery & medical equipment

United States

Enacts tariffs on foreign

imports of steel (25%) &

aluminum (10%)

EU, Mexico, Canada

Tariffs on US imports worth

21 billion USD, including

manufacturing goods

China

Tariffs of 25% on over 545

US products including cars

& agricultural products

China

Retaliatory tariffs on US

medical equipment, steel,

cars & chemical products

March-June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018

United States

10% tariffs on additional

200 billion USD of

Chinese imports

(up to 25% in 2019)

China

60 billion USD in

retaliatory tariffs on

US imports

Best in Class Risk Prediction

Machine Learning and the Funnel of Relevancy

Clustering

by geography

Supplier Tagging industry

Grouping with

similar/duplicate

incidents

Business impact: HIGH

Sentiment: 0.96

Relevance – Automotive: 0.75

Relevance – User: 0.97

Impact on Shipment ETA: 0

Labor strikes in

France cancelled Risk Intelligence

TeamPlatform

500,000

employees

within DHL

8 mio

online

sources

9

2010: Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull: Total

airline industry loss of ~ €1.3 billion.

2011: Japan earthquake & tsunami: Total

economic loss over €275 billion.

The Origin of Resilience360

10

Resilience360: Module Overview

Where are we?

Supply Chain

Visibility

How prepared am I?

Risk & Impact

Assessment

How prepared are they?

Transparency

Portal

Are my partners OK?

Supply Watch

How to enable manage.?

Analytics

What’s going on?

Risk & Incident

Monitoring

Where is our stuff?

Shipment

tracking

11

Resilience360: Tool Demonstration

13

� 550+ homes & schools in 130+ countries & territories

� Global Emergency Response team based in Austria HQ.

� Customized satellite imagery map layer allows for

environmental damage and/or security assessments in the

wake of crisis events.

� Up-to-date intelligence is pushed, and situational feedback

received from – their vast network of affiliates and partners.

RESILIENCE360 Support SOS Children Village’s Emergency Response

� Enhanced visibility of time- and business-

critical shipments of components and

equipment used in major data-center

projects

� Early warning of potential supply chain

delays or transportation issues, to allow

proactive management of supply chain

exceptions

� Greater operational efficiency to help

logistics staff manage continued and

rapid growth in demand

RESILIENCE360 Powers Google Data Center Logistics

2018 Look Back & 2019 Predictions - Annual Risk Report

16

Nick Wildgoose

Senior Consultant, Resilience360

Nick.wildgoose@supplien.com

“It is difficult to make

predictions, especially

about the future.”

Appendices

17

Is Your Supply Chain Ready For Climate Change?

• 2018 4th warmest year on record

• 2019 warmest year on record?

• Climate risk & extreme weather

• Flood risk

• Wildfires

• Low water levels

• Droughts

• Melting ice

• Up to 20% of enterprise value at risk

Is Your Supply Chain Ready For Climate Change?

Forward Looking -Risk On Every

Point of the Planet

Where Is Your Risk Accumulating?

Fin

an

cia

l R

isk

Su

sta

ina

bil

itiy

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e

Ca

pa

bil

itie

s

So

urc

ing

Re

lati

on

sh

ip

Etc

...

15% 7% 7% 8% 10% 10%

Risk Exposure Index

Customer-SpecificRisk Index *

Ea

rth

qu

ak

e

To

rna

do

Ha

il

Flo

od

Natural Disaster

Wa

r

Te

rro

ris

m

Civ

il U

nre

st

PoliticalViolence

Etc

...

Co

rru

pti

on

La

w E

nfo

rce

me

nt

Co

un

terf

eit

Th

rea

t

La

bo

r S

trik

e

Socio Political

Avia

tio

n

Gro

un

d

Cu

sto

ms

Eff

icie

nc

y

Ma

rin

e

Operational

Ca

rgo

Th

eft

Pe

rso

na

l F

ree

do

m

Wo

rke

rs R

igh

ts

En

vir

on

me

nt

Ch

ild

La

bo

r

Sustainability

De

ath

& I

nju

ry

De

ten

tio

n &

D

isc

rim

ina

tio

n

Kid

na

p &

Ra

ns

om

Risk to Individuals

12% 12% 82% 9%Etc... Etc...

Overall

Index

Category

Index

Exposure

Scores

* Weightings shown above are representative. Actual weightings determined

in collaboration with customer.12% Weighting based on Loss Expectation/Expert Analysis