05/10/2017

Major Events of the Week 2 - 6 October

Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous

MONDAY, 2 OCTOBER

8:30 AM GBP Manufacturing PMI September 55.9 56.3 56.7

2:00 PM USD ISM Manufacturing PMI September 60.8 57.9 58.8

TUESDAY, 3 OCTOBER

3:30 AM AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision Oct-03 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

8:30 AM GBP Construction PMI September 48.1 51.1 51.1

WEDNESDAY, 4 OCTOBER

8:30 AM GBP Services PMI September 53.6 53.3 53.2

12:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change September 135K 131K 228K

THURSDAY, 5 OCTOBER

12:30 AM AUD Retail Sales m/m August -0.6% 0.3% -0.2%

12:30 PM CAD Trade Balance August -3.0B

FRIDAY, 6 OCTOBER

9:00 AM CAD Employment Change September 22.2K

12:30 PM USD Non-Farm Employment Change September 156K

GBP/USD: UK Services PMI

The British Pound strengthened against the Greenback on the grounds of

shiny UK service industry data. Following the report, the GBP/USD

currency pair jumped 22 base points to the 1.3278. However, by the end

of the session the pair returned to the prior lows near the 1.3230 area,

confirming that the sentiment concerning the Sterling’s outlook stayed

more downbeat amid lingering uncertainties over Brexit talks.

Markit report showed that the Britain’s services sector grew at a

stronger-than-anticipated pace in September, putting the industry’s PMI

to a seasonally adjusted 53.6, above forecasts for an unchanged reading.

The strong data could ease concerns over the UK economy and support

expectations for the Bank of England’s interest rate hike.

Historical Data Table: UK Services PMI

Date 05.06.2017 05.07.2017 03.08.2017 05.09.2017 04.10.2017

Actual 53.8 53.4 53.8 53.2 53.6

Forecast 55.1 53.6 53.6 53.5 53.2

Initial Reaction on Main Pairs

Open Price Close Price % Change

GBP/USD 1.32562 1.32786 0.17%

EUR/GBP 0.88745 0.88566 -0.20%

GBP/CAD 1.65434 1.65672 0.14%

GBP/JPY 149.231 149.492 0.17%

EUR/USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

The US Dollar strengthened against the Euro in the wake of US data

release on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair fell 0.15% or 17 pips

to continue the session below the 1.1770 level, additionally confirming

the position amid the better-than-expected ISM report and a small

reaction on EU and US officials’ speeches.

The US companies slashed hiring to the lowest level in 11 months in

September owing to the disruption of business activities caused by

Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, according to the ADP Employment report.

The private survey showed that the country’s businesses added 135K

jobs in September, suggesting the most of Hurricane’s impact forced

small retailers to cut hiring.

Historical Data Table: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Date 01.06.2017 06.07.2017 02.08.2017 30.08.2017 02.10.2017

Actual 253K 158K 178K 237K 135K

Forecast 181K 184K 187K 185K 131K

Initial Reaction on Main Pairs

Open Price Close Price % Change

AUD/USD 0.78678 0.78555 -0.16%

EUR/USD 1.17875 1.17704 -0.15%

USD/JPY 112.399 112.467 0.06%

NZD/USD 0.71878 0.71784 -0.13%

AUD/USD: AU Retail Sales, Trade Balance

The Australian Dollar deprived Wednesday’s gains against the

Greenback, as the report showed an unexpected fall in Australian retail

sales. The AUD/USD marked solid decline of 0.34% or 26 base points to

the 0.7830 mark and continued the side move near the aforesaid level.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics release showed that the country’s

retail sales dropped significantly 0.6% in August, missing projections for a

0.3% increase in the reported month. The decrease could be attributed

to households suffering from low pay growth, higher energy bills, as well

as record debt levels and weakening property price growth. Weak retail

sales are likely to weigh on Australian economic expanison in the Q3,

supporting the view that RBA is unlikely to raise rates next year.

Historical Data Table: AU Retail Sales

Date 01.06.2017 04.07.2017 03.08.2017 07.09.2017 05.10.2017

Actual 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% -0.6%

Forecast 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

Initial Reaction on Main Pairs

Open Price Close Price % Change

AUD/JPY 88.691 88.426 -0.30%

AUD/USD 0.78562 0.78366 -0.25%

EUR/AUD 1.49681 1.50031 0.23%

GBP/AUD 1.68558 1.68914 0.21%

Disclaimer

Everything in this article, including opinions and figures, is provided for informational purposes only and may not be interpreted as financial advice or solicitation of products. Dukascopy group assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this article. Financial figures indicated in this article have not been verified by the Dukascopy group. Views, opinions and analyses are those of the author of the article, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy group. Dukascopy group waive any and all warranties, express or implied, regarding, but without limitation to, warranties of the merchantability or the fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to all

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