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National Petroleum CouncilFuture Transportation Fuels Study

Coordinating Subcommittee Conference Call

June 30, 2011

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Agenda

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CSC Meeting Agenda (6/30)Thursday 11:00 AM to 12:30 PM EST

Anti-trust Reminders D. MelinCalendar M. PalfreyReport Outs

– Coordinating Subcommittee L. Capuano– Report Integration Subgroup P. Montana– Demand Task Group D. Short– Technology Task Group S. Brand– Supply & Infrastructure Task Group S. Yosufzai– Engines/Vehicles C. Phillips– HD Engines/Vehicles J. Hobbeheydar– Electric B. Reinert– Hydrogen T. Boccanfuso

New Business – Round Robin AllReview Next Weeks Agenda M. PalfreySummarize New Action Items M. Palfrey

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Antitrust Reminders – NPC Studies

• Remember the Antitrust Guidelines, and don’t– Coordinate your companies’ plans, prices, outputs– Disclose your company’s non-public information– Use the study process to create competitive harm.

• Check with counsel before you– Collect or discuss non-public data– Evaluate public data about future prices and costs– Discuss topics about whose legality you’re unsure.

• Antitrust resources include your lawyer, and:– Mike Young (Anadarko) 832-636-7555– Doug Melin (Marathon) 419-421-3265– Barbara Moran (Caterpillar) 309-494-1270– Jim Haynes (Chevron) 925-842-1298– Courtney Lynch (Chevron) 925-842-6474 – Kenly Webster (NPC) 202-898-0780

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Calendar

Coordinating Subcommittee • Jul 6&8 (W,F) Informal Writing Session – Three days (Denver, CO)• Jul 7 (Th) Report Integration Meeting w/CSC (Denver, CO & WebEx)• Sep TBD CSC Meeting – TBD

Task Groups and Subgroups• Oct 24 (W) L1 Dinner (Boston, MA)• Oct 25 (Th) Technology Peer Review #3 (Boston, MA)

Communications and Outreach• Jun 14 (T) Automotive News Green Car Congress• Jul 14 (Th) Aspen Inst. Forum on Global Energy, Economy, and Security• Aug 1 (M) TEP Clean Vehicles Strategy Retreat (Westchester, NY)• Dec 7 (W) World Petroleum Congress

Other Meetings for Information Only• Sep 15 (Th) NPC Meeting – Washington, DC• Wednesdays (9:30 AM) Fuels and Resources CSC Chair Call• Thursdays (2:30 PM) Weekly Resource CSC Call

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Beginning July 14, alternate CSC Conference Calls will be working sessions used to progress framework and preliminary findings

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CSC Meeting Agenda (7/14)Thursday 11:00 AM to 12:30 PM EST

Anti-trust Reminders D. MelinCalendar M. PalfreyWorking Session P. MontanaNew Business – Round Robin AllReview Next Weeks Agenda M. PalfreySummarize New Action Items M. Palfrey

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Secretary Chu’s Request Letter – September 19, 2009Secretary Chu’s Supplemental Question – April 30, 2010Study Scope and Work Plan Approval EventsNPC Request from Energy Secretary ChuGuiding PrinciplesScope and DeliverablesFuels Study LeadershipFuture Transportation Fuels StudyDemand Task GroupSupply & Infrastructure Task GroupTechnology Task GroupFuels Study DemographicsGuiding QuestionsDOE Organization of Future Transportation Fuels ParticipantsKey Milestones for NPC Resource and Fuels Studies Roles and Responsibilities: Coordinating SubcommitteeRoles and Responsibilities: Task Group Chairs

Appendix

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Secretary Chu’s Request Letter – September 19, 2009

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Secretary Chu’s Supplemental Question – April 30, 2010

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NPC Request from Energy Secretary Chu

• Study Future Transportation Fuels prospects through 2035/2050 for auto, truck, air, rail and waterborne transport

• Address fuel demand, supply, infrastructure, and technology

• Advise on policy options and pathways for integrating new fuels and vehicles into the marketplace, including infrastructure development– Address the transition to an expanded suite of reliable, secure and clean, low-carbon

transportation fuels– Evaluate options, risks, and consequences

• Factors to consider include:– Technological advances– Energy efficiency– Environmental, e.g., impact on carbon, land and water– Economic competitiveness and market dynamics– Cost/benefit tradeoffs– Manufacturing, distribution and infrastructure– Customer expectations and acceptance

• Address the following question: (Supplemental Letter Apr 30, 2010)– What actions could industry and government take to stimulate the technological advances and

market conditions needed to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in the US transportation sector by 50 percent by 2050 relative to 2005 levels while enhancing the Nation’s energy security and economic prosperity?

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Guiding Principles

• Scope then execute– Develop a detailed scope of work for each task group before commencing work

• Diversity of thought– Identify and involve a broad and diverse set of interests to participate in the study to

maximize input and acceptance

• Promote consensus based leadership

• Maximize the use of prior studies– Provide a broad review of current research– Conduct new studies only as needed

• Clarity of assumptions

• Examine the facts then address policy– Advance basic analytical work to reach consensus on the facts– Assess policy through three lenses

• Environment• Economic• Security

• Communicate and outreach throughout the study

• Integrate with NPC Resource Development study

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Scope and Deliverables• SCOPE

• Transportation fuel prospects for 2035/2050 for auto, truck, air, rail and waterborne transport– Environment, economic & security Impact

Efficiency, emissions, land & water use– Competitiveness & technology leadership– Resource and related infrastructure

investment, reliability, and availability

• Examine technology that will accelerate timelines to alternative fuels

• Insights on policy, investments, risks and consequences

• Address what actions industry and government can take to stimulate the technological advances and market conditions needed to reduce life-cycle GHG emissions in the US transportation sector by 50% by 2050 relative to 2005 levels, while enhancing national energy security and economic prosperity.

DELIVERABLES

• Deliver a report to the Secretary of Energy on Future Transportation Fuels prospects through 2035/2050 for auto, truck, air, rail and waterborne transport which– Addresses fuel demand, supply, infrastructure, and

technology in the context of U.S. objectives to:• Protect the environment• Promote economic growth & competitiveness• Support energy security

• Describe accelerated technology pathways to: improved fuel efficiency, reduced environmental impact, and deployment of alternative fuels at scale

• Deliver insights into potential policy options and investments which industry and government can take to accelerate the acceptance of alternate fuels, engines and vehicles

• Describe actions industry and government can take to stimulate the technological advances and market conditions needed to reduce life-cycle GHG emissions in the US transportation sector by 50% by 2050 relative to 2005 levels, while enhancing the nation’s energy security and economic prosperity.

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Fuels Study Leadership

Study Committee LeadershipChair Clarence Cazalot (Marathon)Government Cochair Dan Poneman (DOE)Alternate Government Cochair Kristina Johnson (DOE)Demand Vice Chair Jim Owens (Caterpillar)Supply & Infrastructure Vice Chair John Watson (Chevron)Technology Vice Chair John Deutch (MIT)Secretary Marshall Nichols (NPC)

Coordinating SubcommitteeChair Linda Capuano (Marathon)Government Cochair Steve Koonin (DOE)Alternate Government Cochair David Sandalow (DOE)Assistant Chair Mike Leister (Marathon)Supply & Infrastructure Task Group Chair Shariq Yosufzai (Chevron)Demand Task Group Chair Deanne Short (Caterpillar)Technology Task Group Chair Stephen Brand (ConocoPhillips)Secretary Andy Oliver (NPC)

MembersChris W. Erickson (ExxonMobil) William Reinert (Toyota)J. Michael Gallagher (Westport) Matthew C. Rogers (DOE)Mitch Jackson (FedEx) Arthur Rypinski (DOT)Henry C. Kelly (DOE) Paul Sankey (Deutsche Bank)Deron W. Lovaas (NRDC) Chris Sultemeier (Walmart)Jan W. Mares (Resources For the Future) Alan I. Taub (General Motors)Margaret C. Montana (Shell) Todd A. Werpy (Archer Daniels Midland)Richard G. Newell (DOE)

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Leadership

Chair D. Short (Caterpillar)Govt. Cochair J. Conti (DOE)Alt. Govt. Cochair P. Holtberg (DOE)Asst. Chair C. Sultemeier (Wal-Mart)Secretary A. Oliver (NPC)

Demand Task Group

• Evaluate demand forecasts and assumptions of passenger and freight mobility demand through 2035/2050.

• Estimate travel activity and transportation operations efficiency under various conditions to derive fuel demand.

• Estimate fuel and vehicle mix.

• Provide insight on policy options that can influence travel activity and fuel consumption.

• Provide mix of fuel/vehicle systems given performance and cost characteristics.

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Leadership

Chair S. Yosufzai (Chevron)Govt. Cochair C. Difiglio (DOE)Alt. Govt. Cochair T. White (DOE)Asst. Chair J. Caggiano (Chevron)Secretary A. Oliver (NPC)

Supply & Infrastructure Task Group

• Evaluate supply forecasts and assumptions for passenger and freight mobility through 2035/2050.

• Assess technology and technology investments to accelerate delivery and adoption of new fuel/vehicle systems.

• Analyze infrastructure requirements for fuel types and volumes under various conditions.

• Describe technology pathways and timelines for introducing various fuel options into the supply chain.

• Assess environmental impact, energy security and economic competitiveness implications of fuel/vehicle technology options.

• Analyze various supply situations and provide a framework for developing policy options.

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Leadership

Chair S. Brand (ConocoPhillips)Govt. Cochair P. Davis (DOE)Govt. Cochair E. Owens (DOE)Asst. Chair M. Stark (Accenture)Secretary A. Oliver (NPC)

Technology Task Group

• Standardize analysis of innovation assumptions across study.

• Conduct peer review of technical premises, findings and readiness.

• Provide subject matter expertise that complements Supply and Infrastructure Task Group composition.

• Analyze and evaluate key premises of innovation development with respect to technical performance, cost, schedule and emissions.

• Identify and evaluate disruptive technology opportunities that accelerate deployment and commercialization which includes government sponsored research such as ARPA-E.

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Fuels Study Demographics

Total Study Participation (Committee, CSC, Task Groups, Subgroups)

296 ParticipantsAs of November 2010

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Guiding Questions

1. Define criteria for 2035 transportation fuels and relative improvement– Environment less GHG, land and water use– Security available resources, reliable infrastructure– Economic capital investment, operating costs, achievable at scale,

competitive,subsidy requirements

2. Describe 2035 baseline for transportation fuels based upon available studies

3. Identify technological advances, changes in supply, infrastructure and demand that could accelerate the transition to a more environmentally friendly, secure and economically competitive fuel mix

4. Provide insight on government and industry investments which could increase the probability of technological advances

5. Provide insight on the environment impacts such as GHG, water and land use

6. Provide insight on acceptance of these accelerated transportation fuels

7. Consider 2050 – describe the potential 2035 interim states or scenarios which could accelerate progress to a more advanced fuels mix by 2050

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DOE Leadership for NPC Future Transportation Fuels Study

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Timeline & Key Milestones for NPC Resource and Fuels Studies

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• Develops general approach, scope, organization, milestones, and timetable

• Recruits participants and provides resources

• Supervises the work of task groups or individuals

• Ensures coordination between task groups

• Monitors progress and milestones

• Develops and implements outreach and communication plan

• Addresses policy or directional issues that may arise during task group work.

• Integrates with North American Resources Study

• Reports periodically to the study committee regarding status, for guidance, or about issues that need attention

• Integrates working drafts and sections into a draft final study report for submission to the study committee and the Council

• Strives for consensus among the diverse interests represented.

• Weekly teleconferences initially

Roles and Responsibilities: Coordinating Subcommittee

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• Recruit diverse, expert membership for their task group

• Oversee task group work plans, methodology, and timetables 

• Ensure integration between task group work and the overall study framework

• Implement Coordinating Subcommittee decisions and guidance in task group

• Ensure outreach to stakeholders outside the task group

• Guide development of task group findings and recommendations

Roles and Responsibilities: Task Group Chairs