08 prm chairmans address
TRANSCRIPT
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VIIPROCEMIN 2008. Santiago, Chile
CHAIRMANS ADDRESS
Since April 2006, when the copper price first poked through the
$3 barrier, the mining industry has been enjoying a prosperous
time, which for Chile was most significant for its large copper
and gold industry. Cochilco predicts the copper price this year will
settle at an average $3.70, and $3.40 in 2009.
Strong international demand, mainly from China, India and
Thailand, and to some degree from a few countries in the Middle
East is expected to continue, although we have currently entered
a softer market. In July Cochilco reported that in 2008 copper
demand will grow by 1.4% to 18.4 million tonnes, and to 23
million tonnes by 2011, while supply is expected to grow by 2.6%
to 18.3 million tonnes. In 2009 a small surplus is expected.
According to the ICSG (Int. Copper Study Group), in the first
five months of 2008, world mine production fell 3.1% below the
2007 level for the same period. World concentrate production was
down by 3.9% while solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW)
production remained level. World production was affected mainly by
lower year-on-year output in Australia, Chile, Indonesia and Mexico,
where operational problems, labour issues, and/or adverse weather
led to an aggregated drop in production of 10% (328,000 t copper).Mine production was up in Africa (17%) but down in all the
remaining regions: America (-1.9%), Asia (-13%), Europe (-0.7%)
and Oceania (-4.8%). As a result, the average global mine capacity
utilization rate fell to about 82% in the first 5 months of 2008
from 87% in the same period of 2007.
Chile has remained worlds first position among the copper
producers with an expected about 5.59 million of tons of copper
to be produced during 2008 (although only 2.67 million mtwere produced in the first half of 2008), compared to a world
total of 16.5 million tonnes. 2.37 million tonnes of new copper
output, nearly 20 percent of the global production, will come
onto the market from 26 new copper developments in Chile from
2006-2015, according to Cochilco Chief Analyst Aldo Picozzi.
Compare this number of projects to a total, as reported by The
Dow Jones Newswire in November, of 166 copper projects to be
developed until 2015, containing a reserve of 55.2 billion metric
tonnes of ore in reserves.
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VIII
Cochilco said about 84 % of production is from greenfield opera-
tions, 14 of the new mines will produce copper cathodes from
SX/EW operations, and 12 will produce copper in concentrates.
Average copper ore grades are 0.55% and 0.74 % respectively. Next
after Chile in terms of new mines or brownfield development is Peru,
with 19 new projects due over the nine-year period. Canada will see
18 new projects, Australia 14 and the Democratic Republic of
Congo 12.
According to Brook Hunt, highly probable expansions and devel-
opments are those at Antamina, Cadia, Miheevskoye, Los Bronces,
El Abra, Collahuasi, Antapaccay Tia Maria, Toromocho, Rio Blanco,
and Oyu Tolgoi. Among the larger probable developments are Escon-
dida Phase 5, Olympic Dam, Bingham Canyon, Tenke-Fungurume,
Andina, Cananea, etc. Latin America accounts for 73% of total con-
tinental projects and 42% worldwide. America comprises 58% of
these projects, Asia 15%, Africa 14%, Oceania 9% and Europe 4%.
Worldwide average copper grade is 0.71% for concentrate produc-
tion and 0.66% for EW cathode production. According to Brook
Hunt the average worldwide capital intensity for copper projects in
construction amounts to about $8,217 per ton of fine copper, while
this number is set to increase to about $8,881 and $9,082 respec-
tively for probable and possible projects in the pipe line.In June Metal Bulletin reported that, in 2007, 1,821 companies
spent $9.9 billion on non-ferrous metals and minerals exploration
surveys worldwide, of which over US$ 2 billion in copper, from which
about US$ 360 million were destined for Chile. You may all have
heard about two large recent discoveries in Chile, Escondida Pampa
with over one billion tonnes in mineralization with average grade be-
tween 0.7 and 0.8 % copper, and Codelcos La Casualidad, with over
300 million tonnes of copper. Escondida alone is reported to set aside
about US$ 325 million for further exploration of that prospect.
Gold producers have also undertaken costly initiatives in our
country headed by Barricks Pascua Lama with US$ 2.4 billion in
investments. This project was delayed for several years first due
to dificulties in obtaining the environmental permits and now due
to problems in tax negotiations between Chile and Argentina. El
Volcn project of Andina Minerals worth US$1,000 million and
Cerro Casale of Barrick Gold (at US$2.3 billion) are also important
gold projects. 2007 Exploration costs in Chile have amounted to
over US$ 4.2 billion.
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IXPROCEMIN 2008. Santiago, Chile
I realize that I may have bored you with a lot of numbers. But
then again, it is the numbers game that makes us tick, and pushes
us to new projects and new technologies to produce copper from
ever lower grade deposits. The importance of a conference such as
Procemin 2008 is to briefly take a breath and review what is being
developed on both the production and the technology front. I am
sure that the papers in these Proceedings will satisfy your appe-
tite to that respect.
Dr. Bert Huls
Chairman
V International Mineral Processing Seminar
PROCEMIN 2008