1 1 trade between ukraine & norway mirror and reconciliation exercises for external trade...
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Trade between Trade between Ukraine & NorwayUkraine & Norway
Mirror and reconciliation exercises for external trade statistics between Norway and Ukraine
Joint EFTA/UNECE/SSCU Seminar: Economic Globalisation: A Challenge For Official Statistics (Kiev, Ukraine, 3-6 July 2007)
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Background
• Joint study between SSCU and Statistics Norway
• An EFTA funded co–operation on external trade statistics
• Working meetings– Kiev (25 – 26 January, 2007)– Oslo (19 – 20 April, 2007)
• Other participants:– State Customs Authority of the Ukraine– Norwegian Customs and Excise
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Mirror Statistics
• Comparing two equivalent trade flows between two trade partners
• Asymmetries in the datasets due to differences within– Metadata– Management of data– Trade quality
• Importance for consistent data– For the user – For the quality
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Asymmetries in International Trade
• Main explanatory reasons for discrepancies:– Valuation of exports versus imports (Fob / Cif)– Conversion to uniform currency– Methods:
Compilation of data Threshold levels Classification
– Time lag– Trade via third countries– Trade system (General vs Special)– Misreporting – Unintentional errors
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Cooperation process
• Working meeting Kiev– Comparison of key methodological principles– Mirror comparisons on a HS 6 digit level– Special regards to the trade in fish
• Working meeting Oslo– Reviewing data for 2006– Development within trade in fish– Exchanging data on country of consignments
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Total trade from Ukraine to Norway
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
US
D 1
000
Ukraine's export
Norway's import
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Flat- rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel (HS 7208)
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
US
D 1
000
Ukraine's export
Norway's import
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Trade via third countries
• Iron and steel (HS 72) – Country of consignment:– 85 % from Belarus
• Articles of apparel and clothing accessories
(HS 62 and HS 62)
• Snow skiis (HS 950611)
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Norway
UkraineAustria
NO M: USD 10.8 Mill
AU X: USD 14.4 Mill
NO M: USD 5.3 Mill
UA X: 0
AU M: USD 41.4 Mill
UA X: USD 40.3 Mill
Trade via third countries:Snow skis from Ukraine to Norway
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Total trade from Norway to Ukraine
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
US
D 1
000
Ukraine's import
Norway's export
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Confidentiality in the datasets
• Inorganic chemicals (HS 28)
– Ukraine’s import 2006: USD 3 million– No Norwegian registered export
Suppression on detailed country level
• Plastics and articles thereof (HS 39)
– Ukraine’s import 2006: USD 4 million– Norway’s export 2006: USD 596 thousand
Suppression on a detailed country level
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Total trade of fish from Norway to Ukraine
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
US
D M
illi
on
Ukraine's import
Norway's export
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Frozen fish (HS 0303)
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
120 %
140 %
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
USD 1000
Tonnes
14
0
0,5
1
1,5
2005 2006year
US
D th
ousd
.
Norway
Ukraine
Average price of one ton of frozen fish (HS 0303) in Norway`s export and Ukraine`s import
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Frozen Herring (HS 030350)
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
USD 1000 Tonnes USD 1000 Tonnes
2005 2006
Ukraine's import
Norway's export
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Concluding remarks
• Discrepancies:– From Ukraine to Norway
2005: USD 17 mill 2006: USD 18 mill
– From Norway to Ukraine 2005: USD 64 million 2006: USD 3 million
• Main reasons for asymmetries:– Trade via third countries– Confidentiality– Overestimation (underestimation) of customs value of goods