1>> © 2007 optimum solutions group, llc the value of the value chain products michael pearson...

1 >> © 2007 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

The Value of the Value Chain Products

Michael Pearson

Director, SCM Practice

Optimum Solutions

Gerald O’Sullivan

Director, Value Chain Products

Oracle


Agenda

• Introduction

• Value Chain Products – Oracle Messaging

•What Makes Up the Value Chain and the Value They Provide• New Products

• Advanced Planning Control Center• Service Parts Planning

• Existing Products

• Question and Answers

• Next Steps


Corporate Snapshot

SERVICE OFFERINGS

Business Process / Knowledge Transfer Approach

Centers of Excellence: Oracle, PeopleSoft, JDE, Siebel, Demantra

SCM, Value Chain Planning, CRM, HCM, Financials, EPM, Portal, Business Intelligence

Industry leading Optimum MethodSM Toolkit and ExcelerateSM Methodology

Rapid Solutions

LifelineSM Production Support

Corporate Snapshot

Optimum Solutions is a full-service consulting firm, specializing in enterprise system implementation and integration solutions.

Atlanta

San FranciscoCorporate Headquarters

Los Angeles

Denver

ChicagoEastern Region Headquarters Washington D.C.

Dallas


Leading Oracle Partner

Oracle and PeopleSoft have long recognized

Optimum’s industry domain expertise and

leadership position in target markets, viewing Optimum practitioners as trusted business advisors

and industry thought leaders.

PeopleSoft Enterprise

We have significant experience with the newest releases of PeopleSoft Enterprise including working

with v8.9 since late 2004 and continuing through our numerous implementations to date – a claim

few can make. Optimum has conducted numerous national workshops on v8.9 functionality both on

behalf of our existing clients and co-sponsored with Oracle Corporation.

Oracle E-Business

Optimum has consultants experienced with the Oracle 11i E-Business Suite applications since the

introduction of release 9.3. We have seen the product evolve and mature from an initial release of

core functionality to today’s robust ERP solution. As a result, we know how to maximize the benefits

of Oracle and deliver exceptional added value to the enterprise.

Optimum | Oracle


The Value Chain Products

EBS Trade ManagementSiebel Trade ManagementSiebel DeductionsSiebel Consumer Goods Dynamic CatalogSiebel Inventory and Order ManagementSiebel Consumer Goods Quote and Order Capture

Siebel Sales Volume PlanningSiebel Trade PromotionsSiebel Consumer Goods Sales HandheldSiebel Van Sales/DeliverySiebel Distribution CRM BaseSiebel CG Customer OM Admin Server

Advanced Planning AgentOrder Promising

Production SchedulingPDP Collaborative Web Client

Advanced Supply Chain PlanningInventory OptimizationGlobal Order PromisingCollaborative PlanningAdvanced Planning Command Center

Service Parts PlanningStrategic Network OptimizationDemantra Demand ManagementDemantra Predictive Trade PlanningDemand Signal RepositoryManufacturing Operations Center


Advanced Planning Command Center

Make Supply Chain Decisions Based on Real-time Business Insight

Business Scenario Planning for Key Decision Makers

Seamlessly Move Between Analytics and Planning

Leverage Process Automation to Structure Execution of Your Scenarios

Oracle® Advanced Planning Command Center provides decision makers with a comprehensive solution that delivers powerful analysis of operational, tactical, and strategic supply chain plans, robust scenario modeling and management, and automated business process execution capabilities.


Service Parts Planning

Forecast, Replenish, and Redistribute your Service Parts More Accurately Forecast Your Service Parts

Optimize the replenishment and redistribution of parts across the extended service network

Oracle® Service Parts Planning, a key component of Oracle's comprehensive Service Management Solution, can transform your after sales service and support operations from a cost center to a key profit center and a source of strategic advantage.


Demand Management

Efficient and simple forecast management

» Consolidated view

» History

» Statistical forecast

» Overrides

» Final forecast

» Approvals

Forecast accuracy

» Detect problem items and locations


Forecast Analytics

Historical dataBayesian Estimator

Forecast

Estimator’s models

Multiple causal factors

Bayesian combined model

Superior Bayesian-Markov Analytics

Bayesian mix modeling

15 model library

» Auto-regressive moving average (ARMA)

» Regression integrated winters

» Logistic and logarithmic models

» Ridge regression, Markov chain regression

» Intermittent regression

Unlimited causal factors

» Seasonality, weather, market indicators

» Base + price + multi-event lift decomposition

Promotion effects

» Cross-product and cross-location effects

» Pre and post event

Automatic outlier detection

Trend long, short, dampening

Missing data interpolation

Shape modeling and auto-correction

Regime change

Fit and forecast validation


Advanced Forecasting & Demand Modeling

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Week 1 Week 6 Week 11

Week

Cas

es

Actual

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Week 1 Week 6 Week 11

Week

Cases

Cannibalization

Forward buying

Pantry loading

Competitive switching

Category growth

Baseline

Actual

Netlift

Baseline

Gross lift

Past Future Past Future

DM AFDM

Basic causal forecasting

Shows the cumulative impact of multiple factors that impact demand

Adds advanced statistical analysis

Breaks down the impact in to baseline (including trend,

season, and causals), direct lift, indirect lift

(cannibalization and halo), pre-effect (event anticipation),

and post-effect (pantry loading)


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Strong Weak

Perfect Order Inventory

Cash-to-Cash SCM CostsSource: AMR Benchmark Analytix

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Complete order

fill rate

% Gross margin % Customer

retention

Laggard

Industry norm

Best-in-class

Cur

rent

% p

erfo

rman

ce

Performance metric© 2004 AberdeenGroup

Demand Driven leaders typically have:

15% less inventory

17% stronger order fulfillment

35% shorter cash-to-cash cycle times

S&OP leaders outperform their competitors:

Improved order fill rates

Increased gross margin

Higher customer retention

Real Time Sales & Operational Planning


Real Time Sales & Operational Planning

Start quickly, integrated with ERP

» Seeded data streams for data commonly used in the process

» Seeded performance metrics

» Seeded workflows

Seeded templates for collaboration

» Seeded consensus planning worksheets

» Easily tailored to your business

Configurable and extensible

» Collaborate at any level

Complete out of the box support for a typical best practice sales and operations planning process

Daily KPI updates based on sales from prior day

Sales, Marketing and Operations with access to current information

Alerts on all plan changes or gaps

Manage customer accounts using point-of-sale data

Detailed planning ensures S&OP plans get executed


Predictive Trade Planning

Many standards reports and drill-down worksheets

Standard worksheets and reports are tailored to individual user needs

Field-level security prevents unauthorized viewing

Role-based delivery through dashboard


Predictive Trade Planning – Volume Tracking

Track volume based on shipments, POS, or syndicated data

» Daily and weekly» Set alerts as required» Leverage integration profiles for

syndicated data

Aggregate volume tracking » At retailer level » Cumulative current forecast versus plan » Base and incremental lift decomposition

• Past—post event analytics • Future—updated forecast based on

current market

Detailed volume tracking» Forecast versus plan

• At retailer• Territory• Promotion group

» Base and incremental decomposition» Tracking at retailer and territory levels


Predictive Trade Planning – Post Event Analysis

Compare planned versus actual results

Color coding highlights better than expected or under performing results

Lift decomposition to identifies components of lift including cannibalization

Drill down to speed analysis

Exception process can route analysis based on user defined rules


Promotion Optimization

Post-event evaluation

Post-event evaluation

Pre-event simulation

Pre-event simulation

Evaluate performance after the fact

Provide directional guidance for future

OptimizationOptimization

Plan future promotions

Perform what-if analysis to design better promotions

“Smart Advisor”: Determine the best promotions

Key to widespread use of modeling

Price

Profit

What-if scenarios

• • •

Price

Profit

What we should do

•

Price

Profit

How we did last time

•


Promotion Optimization

Baseline versus incremental volume

» Provides decomposition of incremental volume from advertising, promotions, or sales incentives

Granular lift analytics

» Incremental volume lift coefficients maintained at lowest level

» Localized promotion analysis

» Allows shipments/replenishments to be adjusted by ship-to location

Cross product and customer effects

» Determines cross-product cannibalization impact

» Adjusts forecasts for product and customer cannibalization Baseline

Incremental

Competitiveswitching

Long termgrowth

Pre and Postpromotion

effect

Cross productcannibalization

Typical Demantra AFDM

Baseline


Questions & Answers


Contact Information

Michael PearsonDirector, Supply Chain Management Practice312.674.4700 ext 8051Or 888-229-5707 ext [email protected]

“Quite simply, Optimum is the best ERP implementer

in the marketplace.”

— George AbatjoglouCFO, ChartOne, Inc.

1>> © 2007 optimum solutions group, llc the value of the value chain products michael pearson...

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