1 analyzing montana’s indian reservations’ economies susan ockert senior research economist,...

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Analyzing Montana’s Indian Reservations’ Economies

Susan OckertSenior Research Economist,

Census and Economic Information Center, Montana Department of Commerce

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Outline Census Data What is an Economy? Measuring Reservation Economies Determining Potential Sources for Statistics

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Population Numbers U.S. Census Bureau

Every 10 years on April 1 Self-reported Residence within Census boundaries

Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Three year average Service population

Institutional population may not be in area

Tribal Tribal members Annual

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Why Census?Federal programs rely on census data for funding Indian Child Welfare Act

Child and Family Services Programs Families by race and age distribution

Title 6 – Grants to Indian Tribes Programs for Aging Age distribution by race

Indian Community Development Block Grants Housing and economic opportunities for low and moderate

income Income/poverty data

Indian Employment Assistance Vocational training and employment opportunities Employment/Occupation by race

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Census 2010Pilot project in South Dakota Work directly with tribes Door-to-door visits by trained resident

enumerators rather than mailed forms Publicity campaigns: census data confidential so

can not be used against individual Use of hand-held electronic devices to identify

exact location of house Visit all rural areas on reservation

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Sanders

Flathead

Lake

Missoula

Glacier

Pondera

Hill Blaine

PhillipsValley

Roosevelt

SheridanDaniels

Big Horn

Rosebud

Yellowstone

Chouteau

BLACKFEET

Population 10,100

Unemployment 22.6%

Per Capita Income $9,751

Poverty 30.0%

Median Age 26.5

BA+ 13.5%

% American Indian 84.2%

FLATHEAD

Population 26,172

Unemployment 7.9%


Poverty 15.8%

Median Age 37.4

BA+ 20.8%


ROCKY BOY’S

Population 2,676

Unemployment 28.4%


Poverty 38.0%

Median Age 20.5

BA+ 11.8%


FORT BELKNAP

Population 2,959

Unemployment 23%


Poverty 36.5%

Median Age 23.5

BA+ 12.5%


FORT PECK

Population 10,321

Unemployment 17.5%


Poverty 30.1%

Median Age 30.2

BA+ 14.6%


NORTHERN CHEYENNE

Population 4,470

Unemployment 19.5%


Poverty 39.3%

Median Age 22.7

BA+ 13.5%


CROW

Population 6,894

Unemployment 17.1%


Poverty 26.6%

Median Age 27.6

BA+ 13.8%


SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU,CENSUS 2000

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Reservation Total

American Indian Tribe Number

Blackfeet 10,110 8,146 Blackfeet alone 7,441

Crow 6,894 5,132 Crow alone 4.556

Flathead 26,172 6,339 Salish alone

Kootenai alone

Salish and Kootenai

1,842

308

2,348

Fort Belknap 2,959 2,764 Assiniboine alone

Gros Ventres alone

1,068

1,276

Fort Peck 10,321 6,116 Assiniboine alone

Assiniboine Sioux alone

Sioux alone

1,107

781

3,406

Northern Cheyenne 4,470 3,835 Northern Cheyenne alone 2,982

Rocky Boy’s 2,676 2,446 Rocky Boy’s Chippewa Cree alone 2130

Population by American Indian and by Tribe:Population by American Indian and by Tribe:

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

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Item Number PercentTOTAL 56,068 100%

Urban 23,347 41.6%

Metropolitan* 9,537 17%

Rural 32,721 58.4%

Not in a Place** 14,283 25.5%

*Metropolitan Areas: Billings, Great Falls, Missoula

**Concentrations of population, housing, and commercial structures that areidentifiable by name but have no legal authority.

American Indian Population: Urban vs RuralUrban = 1,000 people per square mile

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

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What is an ‘economy’?Businesses

Consumers

GovernmentCreate Wealth

Redistribute Wealth

Jobs Income

•Marketing•Customer Service•Accounting•Management

•Public Finance•Zoning/Land Use•Public Works•Public Safety

Source: “Understanding Your Community’s Economic Base,” University of Missouri Extension, http://muextension.missouri.edu

67% of GDP

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Current Reservation Environment

Population Faster growth rate Younger median age

Education Fewer with degrees Higher drop out rate

Social Larger percent of

population uses food stamps

Higher pregnancy rate

Higher alcohol treatment need

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Current Reservation Economies Higher unemployment More poverty Lower per capita income Lower wages Lower housing values Smaller private sector

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Types of Jobs 33% of jobs on the reservation are

Government compared with 15% of jobs in the country as a whole

44% of jobs on the reservation are in the Private Sector compared with 80% of jobs in the nation

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, fedgazette, March 2006

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Item 1997 2002

Number of businesses – MT 93,677 100,421

Number of Businesses – AI 1,912 1,990

Growth Rate – MT (1997 – 2002) 9%

Growth Rate – AI (1997 – 2002) 4%

Population – MT 878,706 910,670

Population – AI 54,726 57,841

Firms/1,000 citizens – MT 107 110

Firms/1,000 Indians – AI 35 34

Firms with employees – MT 25,974 28,258

Firms with employees – AI 438 357

% of firms with employees/total firms - MT 28% 28%

% of firms with employees/total firms – AI 23% 18%

Sales per business – MT ($1,000) $402,321 $445,543

Sales per business – AI ($1,000) $86,436 $107,830

Business Environment

NOTE: AI = American Indian Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Survey of Business Owners”

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Industry % in Montana % on Reservations* Wages**

Forestry 0.8% 9.3% $655

Construction 14.1% 16% $621

Manufacturing 3.7% 3.6% $680

Wholesale Trade 4.3% 3.6% $693

Retail Trade 14.8% 18.9% $398

Transportation & Warehousing 3.5% 2.1% $573

Information 1.8% 0.9% $673

Finance & Insurance 5.5% 1.5% $752

Real Estate and Rental 4.6% 3.0% $414

Professional Services 9.1% 6.6% $735

Admin Support and Waste Management 4.1% 3.9% $386

Health Care and Social Assistance 9.1% 3.3% $586

Arts, Recreation, Entertainment 2.9% 2.4% $267

Accommodations 2.0% 4.8% $280

Food Services 7.6% 7.8% $199

Other Consumer Services 8.9% 5.7% $376

Average Weekly Wages – State $535

INDUSTRY COMPARISONS

Sources: See last page

* Indian Owned Businesses Only** MT Average Weekly Wages

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NON-RESERVATION INDUSTRIESIndustry % in Montana %Urban Wages

Mining 0.8% 1.4% $1,040

Utilities 0.6% 2.9% $1,124

Construction 14.1% 38.6% $621

Manufacturing 3.7% 7.1% $680

Wholesale Trade 4.3% 2.9% $693

Retail Trade 14.8% 1.4% $398

Transportation & Warehousing 3.5% 1.4% $573

Finance & Insurance 5.5% 1.4% $752

Real Estate and Rental 4.6% 4.3% $414

Professional Services 9.1% 14.3% $735

Admin Support and Waste Management 4.1% 11.4% $386

Health Care and Social Assistance 9.1% 1.4% $586

Food Services 7.6% 1.4% $199

Other Consumer Services 8.9% 4.3% $376

Average Weekly Wages – State $535

Source: See last page

* Indian Owned Businesses Only** MT Average Weekly Wages

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Non-Reservation Business Locations

Billings: 30

Great Falls: 9Helena: 10

Missoula: 5

Kalispell: 5 Havre: 5

*Note: Indian Owned Businesses Only

Source: See last page

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www.ourfactsyourfuture.org

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UNEMPLOYMENT

Statistics represent labor characteristics of the reservation, not the tribe.

Unemployment rates produced by MT Department of Labor

Labor Force definition: Civilian, non-institutional

population 16 years and older The sum of Employment and

Unemployment Employment definition:

Did any work as paid employees or,

Worked in their own business, profession, or farm or,

Worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in a family owned enterprise

Unemployment Rate definition: Equal to the number of

Unemployed divided by number in the Labor Force

Statistics represent labor characteristics of the tribe, not the reservation.

Labor Force definition: Number of tribal

members between 16 and 64 years old

Available for work Not disabled or

incarcerated

Employment definition: Tribal members working

for money

Unemployment definition: Calculated by subtracting

Employment from Labor Force

MT Dept of Labor, Research and Analysis Bureaus Criteria: Bureau of Indian Affairs Criteria:

www.ourfactsyourfuture.org

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Productivity – Measure of EfficiencyAverage Output per Worker (IMPLAN)

Area Output/worker

Montana $86,309

Blackfeet $75,398

Crow $76,531

Flathead $82,532

Fort Belknap $56,367

Fort Peck $69,559

Northern Cheyenne $60,559

Rocky Boys $67,638

Glacier $71,790

Toole $77,466

Yellowstone $116,707

Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com

Area Output/worker

Lewis & Clark $82,675

Cascade $83,367

Missoula $82,749

Gallatin $80,178

Flathead $85,341

Hill $69,383

Garfield $82,941

Richland $85,986

Rosebud $100,944

Blaine $59,319

Beaverhead $80,303

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Compensation per WorkerAverage Salary per Worker (IMPLAN)

Area Output/worker

Montana $24,680

Blackfeet $20,894

Crow $21,697

Flathead $24,197

Fort Belknap $16,089

Fort Peck $17,129

Northern Cheyenne $27,005

Rocky Boys $21,908

Glacier $26,409

Toole $22,866

Yellowstone $28,867

Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com

Area Output/worker

Lewis & Clark $30,370

Cascade $28,048

Missoula $25,324

Gallatin $23,500

Flathead $23,225

Hill $23,711

Garfield $10,775

Richland $21,350

Rosebud $35,437

Blaine $19,141

Beaverhead $21,834

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Natural ResourcesResource Total

Timber Sales (2005) $ 4,242,299

Coal Royalties (2000) $ 3,402,663

Gas Royalties (2000) $ 610,000

Oil Royalties (2000) $ 2,550,800

Montana Reservations compared to U.S. Reservations• 13% of all acres of coal• 12% of all oil and gas leases• 5% of all coal royalties/revenues• 5% of oil royalties/revenues

Source: Minerals Management Office, U.S. Geological Survey

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Agriculture on the Reservation

Item Total

Non Native American

Native American

% of Total

Farms 2,552 1,825 727 29%

Average Size (acres) 3,116 2,179 5,196 167%

Market Value of Products $221,182,000 $162,150,000 $59,032,000 27%

Farm Expenses* $183,549,000 $150,709,000 $32,841,000 18%

Internet Access 1,406 1,048 358 26%

% of Farms with Internet 55% 57% 49% N/A

Market Value per Acre $52,116 $59,636 $11,361 22%

Expense per Acre $43,249 $55,428 $6,320 15%

Net Income per Acre $8,867 $4,208 $5,041 57%

* Due to confidential information, only 6 reservations used

United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, http://www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/index.asp

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Business – Where to Locate

How much population is needed?

Population: 5,584

On reservation

Business Town Population Market Population

Grocery Store 329 1,250

General Merchandise 385 1,536

Pharmacy 957 2,939

Hardware Store 959 3,709

Automotive Parts 1,083 4,000

16 mile radius – One establishment

Retail sales: Gauge of purchasing powerPopulation:

3,946Off reservation

“Potential for Retail Trades in Rural Communities,” University of Missouri Extension, http://muextension.missouri.edu; Montana Natural Resource Information System, Interactive Mapping and Database Applications, http://nris.state.mt.us/interactive.html

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Examples

Store Actual Potential

Automotive 0 1

Grocery 1 3

Pharmacy 0 1

General* 2 2

Hardware 0 1

Total 3 8

* Dollar stores, general stores, trading posts: retail new goods such as apparel, dry goods, house wares, etc.

U.S. Census Bureau, Zip Code Business Patterns, 2003, www.census.gov

Population: 5,584

On reservation

Population: 3,946

Off reservation

Number of Establishments

Store Actual Potential

Automotive 2 1

Grocery 2 3

Pharmacy 1 1

General* 1 2

Hardware 1 1

Total 7 8

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Blackfeet Reservation Montana

Industry

Native American

Non Indian

Cut Bank

Ave Wages

Agriculture 2 8 17 $477

Construction 8 0 18 $621

Manufacturing 1 0 10 $680

Retail 23 18 48 $398

Professional Business Services 19 11 49 $779

Health Care 0 0 20 $761

Restaurants 16 16 20 $210

Consumer Services 11 4 21 $376

PRIVATE BUSINESSES

Source for businesses: Reference USA and individual visits. Source for wages: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, (QCEW), Montana Department of Labor

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GOVERNMENT

Government

Blackfeet Reservation Cut Bank

Ave Wages

City/County 8 27 $519

State 6 12 $660

Tribal 76 0 $600

Federal 35 5 $953

TOTAL 125 44

Source for businesses: Reference USA and individual visits. Source for wages: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, (QCEW), Montana Department of Labor

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Threshold Analysis Central Place Theory - Population needed to

support retail and service businesses Simple Analysis: population and number of

businesses Similar characteristics such as population & location Does not take into account economies of scale

Square footage Number of doctors in one facility

Grocery store Health care Financial Institutions

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Grocery StoresLocation Threshold Actual# Potential*On the Reservation 4,480 4 6

Browning 1 2

Wolf Point 1 2

Ronan 2 2

Just off Reservation 2,923 5 5

Trade Center 3,287 10 12

Metropolitan 2,853 75 85

Statewide 2,725 337 337

On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, RonanJust Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, GlasgowTrade Center: Havre, Miles City, GlendiveMetropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena

# Number of Businesses *Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 2,725

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Health Care: Doctors and Clinics

Location Threshold Actual# Potential*On the Reservation 1,378 13 35

Browning 2 13

Wolf Point 3 10

Ronan 8 12

Just off Reservation 812 18 29

Trade Center 587 56 64

Metropolitan 300 808 476

Statewide 509 1,804 1,804

# Number of Businesses *Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 509


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Financial InstitutionsLocation Threshold Actual# Potential*On the Reservation 3,584 5 14

Browning 1 5

Wolf Point 2 4

Ronan 2 5

Just off Reservation 1,044 14 12

Trade Center 1,174 28 27

Metropolitan 780 311 197

Statewide 1,227 748 748

# Number of Businesses *Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 1,227


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Implications Reservations are underserved in these

private sectors

Just Off the Reservation serving own population and reservation

Trade Centers and Metropolitans serve a much larger region

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Location Quotient Determine if number of jobs are what a local

economy should have to serve local needs Comparison of local employment to statewide for

each industry < 1 = underserved, > 1 = serving more than local MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research

and Analysis has calculated LQ for each county in Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)

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Blackfeet ReservationIndustry LQ Comment

Grocery Stores 0.03 Very under served

Financial Institution ND Non-disclosable – one establishment

Health Care ND Non-disclosable – one establishmentIndustry LQ Comment

Human Resource Programs

16.6 Most over served of all

Executive Government 14.9 2nd over served

Can not provide Location Quotient for most businesses since there are so few of them

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Implications Money is leaving the reservations to

purchase retail goods and consumer services

There is not an adequate supply of financial services on the reservations

There is not an adequate supply of doctors, clinics, etc. on the reservations

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Diversity of Economy Hachman Index measures diversity of economy –

employment spread out among many different industries compared to benchmark Montana or United States

More diversity reduces community’s vulnerability to economic downturns

Closer to 1 mean more diversity MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research

and Analysis has calculated HI for each county in Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)

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Hachman Index Fort Peck Reservation = .24 Blackfeet Reservation = .14

County Hachman Indices Lowest (Stillwater) = .01 Median = .25

(McCone, Phillips, Toole)

Highest = .66 (Gallatin, Missoula, Cascade)

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Implications Reservation and county economies are not

diverse

‘One company’ towns

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Summary Private businesses create wealth

Private goods and services Business decisions

Governments redistribute wealth Public goods and services Government decisions

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Department of CommerceCensus and Economic Information Center

www.ceic.mt.gov American Indian Data

Census 2000 Economic Census 2002 Census Population Estimates by Race Census of Agriculture Office of Public Instruction 1990 Census CEIC Presentations CEIC Maps

Department of LaborWorkforce Services DivisionResearch and Analysis Bureau

www.ourfactsourfuture.mt.gov

2006 Labor Day Report MT Reservation Data

Montana Indian Business Alliance (MIBA)

www.mibaonline.org

Indian Census Data Indian Economic Data Indian Business Data Indian Business Directory Reservation Maps

NATIVE AMERICAN STATISTICS

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STATE % AIAN # of AIAN LEGISLATORS % AIAN

Oklahoma 7.4% 17 15.2%

Montana 6.0% 10 11.1%

New Mexico 9.6% 6 5.7%

Alaska 14.2% 9 4.8%

Washington 1.4% 5 3.4%

Maine 0.5% 2 3.3%

South Dakota 8.4% 4 2.8%

Arizona 4.7% 2 2.2%

Colorado 0.9% 3 1.2%

North Dakota 4.9% 2 1.2%

Wyoming 1.9% 1 1.0%

North Carolina 1.3% 1 0.7%

Legislative Representation

Note: AIAN is American Indian Alaska Native

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Contact InformationSusan Ockert

Montana Department of Commerce

Census and Economic Information Center

Senior Research Economist

(406) 821-2740

[email protected]

www.ceic.mt.gov

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•Industry Data:U.S. Census Bureau, “County Business Patterns” •Reference USA, •Small Business Administration, Minority Business Database,•Montana Department of Transportation, Disadvantaged Business Enterprise Program•Personal visits and interviews•Montana Business Alliance members•University of Montana American Indian Leadership

•Reservation Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; US Department of Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs, 2003; MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research Analysis Bureau, 2005•Population: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, July 1, 2004 Estimates•Unemployment: MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau, Labor Day Report 2005•Per Capita: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2003•Poverty: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates, 2002•Housing Value: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000•Median Age: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000•% Food Stamps: MT Department Public Health and Human Services, Statistical Report June 2005•Pregnancies: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, Trends in Montana Teen Pregnancies and Their Outcomes 1981-2000, November 2002•Alcohol treatment Need: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, An Integrated Substance Abuse Treatment Needs Assessment for Montana, 2001•Drop Out: Office of Public Instruction, Montana High School Dropout Rates by Race/Ethnicity, 2003-04 School Year•U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File (AIANSF) – Sample Data, www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/allreservationsbytribe.xls•U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 2, Matrix PCT1. www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/urban_rural_indian.xls

Sources:

1 analyzing montana’s indian reservations’ economies susan ockert senior research economist,...

Documents

census bureau

outline census data

census data confidential

race slide

census boundaries housing

reservation slide

american indian61

american indian96