Plan for Today:Concluding Structural Factors and Introducing Strategic Actors1. Assess role of civic culture and

facilitating events as “structural” factors.

2. Sum up overall importance of structural factors.

3. Become familiar with actors in transition and typical relations among them.

Types of Structural Preconditions

Civic Culture

“Civic political culture” necessary for stable democracy.

Citizens:› Feel competent› Have urge to participate› Are tolerant of diversity› Are positive towards their political

institutions Problem: causal direction between

democracy and civic culture?

Almond & Verba, The Civic Culture (1963)

Authors on pro-democratic political culture

Alexis de Tocqueville: Democracy in America

Robert Putnam: Making Democracy Work

“civic community” in northern Italy

Relationship between political culture and democracy

Civic Culture Democracy

1. Economic crisis2. Losing a major military

conflict

Facilitating Historical Events

Legitimacy in democracies vs. non-democracies

Performance as source of legitimacy for recent authoritarian regimes.

Legitimacy to particular government rather than procedures of regime.

Legitimacy in democracies vs. non-democracies

Democratic regimes: legitimacy of regime rules and procedures as well as current government.

Facilitating Historical Events

Economic Crisis› E.g. oil crises 1973-4 and 1979

Oil-importing countries suffered. Argentina, Greece.

Facilitating Historical Events

Loss of Major Military Conflict› Argentina (Falklands-Malvinas)› Greece (Cyprus)› Portugal (colonial wars)› USSR (Afghanistan)

Conclusion on Structural Factors

Strategic Actors in Transitions to Democracy

aka “Transitology”

“Transition”The interval between one regime

and another??

Role of Uncertainty in Transitions

Actions much less determined by structural factors during transition.

Sense of freedom, loss of fear.

Actors in Transition Dynamics(Huntington model)

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Reformers Standpatters

Radical Extremists Moderates

Actors in Transition Dynamics(O’Donnell & Schmitter)

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

South Africa Case Hard-liners (standpatters) in government:

› Hard-line apartheid supporters in white minority government (verkrampte faction of National Party, Conservative Party).

Soft-liners (reformers) in government:› E.g. F.W. de Klerk – if no reform, regime

unsustainable. Moderates in opposition:

› Mandela in ANC – limit demands to political procedural democracy, not economic.

Radicals in opposition:› Demand socioeconomic equality (Communist Party)

or African-run regime (Inkatha Freedom Party). › Willing to use violence.

Key relationships in transitions

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

Key relationships in transitions

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

Key relationships in transitions

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

Key relationships in transitions

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

Balance of Power Among Players

If hardliners very strong, democratization can’t occur.

If soft-liners and opposition moderates both strong, democratization likely.

If radicals very strong, either radical outcome or hard-liner backlash occurs.