1 beyond reach: china-uk relations and patterns of interaction on climate security olivia gippner...

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Beyond reach: China-UK relations and patterns of interaction on climate security

Olivia Gippner NFG Research Group “Asian Perceptions of the EU“Dept. Political and Social Science

RUSI Workshop on Environmental SecurityMay 3, 2014

2Gippner, UK-China relations and bureaucratic politics, 3 May 2014, RUSI, London

Puzzle

Emissions trading vs. Global deal and emissions caps


Research Question and Structure

“Why did China decide to adopt ambitious climate policies such as emissions trading, carbon capture and storage and low carbon development?“

A. Framing Climate Change and Environmental Security?B. Case study: CCSC. What does it mean for the UK?

Embedded in a larger research on EU influence and channels of influence towards Chinese climate policy.


Research Design “The EU‘s role in Chinese climate policy“

• Semi-structured interviews with 50 academics, public think tanks, NGOs, and policy makers in Beijing, Brussels, London and at UNFCCC meetings.

• Questions about climate policy making, stakeholders, norms, policies, motivations, personal history

• Coding using qualitative content analysis software• Literature review (esp. Chinese writing and policy papers)


A) CHINESE FRAMES OF CLIMATE CHANGE BEFORE AND AFTER 2007


Enviromental security: a Chinese perspective

• Vulnerability: Consequences of air and environmental pollution

• Energy security and water security• Urbanization

But: no securitization angle, Climate change is still mainly dealt with under NDRC (since 2011 climate change department)


Vulnerability

No “environmental security“ approach: China has been reaching out for policy cooperation on air pollution, energy security, actual productivity losses (Green GDP), increasing opposition by population

• 2010 Green GDP CNY 1.5 trillion (USD248 billion): 3.5 percent of 2010 GDP

• Quality of life in cities• Premier Li Keqiang presents concept of „human-

centered urbanization“ and “declared war against pollution”, placing environmental concerns on the same level as the wealth gap

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China accounts for 26.3 percent of global CO2 emissions (2012)

Source: Eva Sternfeld (taken from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (2011): Long Term Trend in Global CO2 Emissions. 2011 report

Impact on Climate Change


Determinants of changing frames1. dramatic shift of energy usage, drop in energy

intensity 1990-2002, increase in energy intensity after 2003, reduction in 2006 – efficiency and increased consumption

2. increasing environmental pollution and awareness of vulnerability

3. change in industrial policy, green growth strategy (benefits for Chinese industry, ex. Wuxi, Dezhou)

4. great power status, “responsible actor“, multilateral involvement


Changing Frame since 2007• EU-China relations in the field of climate change

have evolved over the past decade due to– changes in the framing of the climate change debate

(climate security and vulnerability)– changes of determinants of Chinese policy-making and

global position in general– changes in the domestic decision-making structures of

the Chinese climate change network.


B) CHINESE CLIMATE POLICY:CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (CCS)


Capturing Carbon emissions• Goal of emissions reductions has risen on the Chinese

political agenda since 2007• Commercialization allows China to continue present coal-

based development• Developed countries, lose their R&D market, due to a

lack of resources and public resistance (eg. In Germany).• CCS/CCUS global industries will be increasingly

dependent on Chinese technologies.


CCUS foreign involvement• UK: NZEC 2006 capacity building project, followed by EU-led

funding schemes COACH and STRACO2• Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) -> in 2011: change of

policy making to NDRC• 2013 evaluation assessment: international cooperative activities

had increased Chinese capacity and raised awareness of CCS• Considering the high cost of commercializing CCS technologies,

NDRC, which in itself has one of the lowest government budgets, cooperates on foreign funded CCUS projects on demonstrating CCUS technologies and using experiences in China as best practices for (funding role)


C) CONSEQUENCES FOR UK-CHINA COOPERATION


What do bureaucratic politics mean for UK-China relations?

• Turf acquisition, turf competition and turf transition• China no monolithic actor: Core role of NDRC• Many competing external actors


Existing UK-China relations on climate change

• Projects at technical level: CCS, ETS, Adaptation projects

• Leadership at strategic level: 2°C target, low carbon development

• On climate change China-UK relations active, mostly untouched by diplomatic fallout in 2012

• Dependent on domestic politics


Gaps in UK policies and capacity for cooperation with China

• UK is already doing a good job, however, lack of domestic drive currently holding back more bilateral cooperation (see CCS third phase)

• Coordination with other European countries and other partners to avoid duplication of efforts (China is a strategic partner for all)

• Domestic dynamics condition any kind of efforts by the UK


Areas for future bilateral cooperation• Policy Areas

– UK has something to offer that China cannot yet supply itself (reforestation, natural flood risk management, allocation methods for emissions reductions, coordination mechanisms in a devolved system...)

– Public communication, use of social media

• Instruments– Bilateral dialogues, technology transfer– Invest in understanding the Chinese decision-making process,

embedded work exchange– Study tours, socialization of Chinese policy-makers– long-term personal relationships/guanxi development


Conclusion• Frames of climate change have been aligning – climate

security / vulnerability• Turf competition (mostly over access to decision-making

and control, not budget) around NDRC characterize climate policy adoption and mediate EU/UK climate policy promotion

• The UK plays the role of an agenda-setter: – Actively: capacity-building through financing demo/pilot

projects, study tours, personal interactions (longterm professional relationships/guanxi)

– Passively: as a model


Thank you very much.

I looking forward to your feedback: [email protected]

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The NFG Research Group• International/interdisciplinary research team / 8 members

(India Cluster, China Cluster)• Academic Council / Meetings at Beida & JNU• Field Studies (6 months / 50 interviews)• Partner Projects (NCRE..)• Visiting & Associate Fellows• Reading Groups (NFG+)• NFG Working Paper Series• Reviews / News (I & C)• Networked Think Tank• Associated Project of • KFG „Transformative Power of Europe“• More on: www.asianperceptions.eu

Gippner, UK-China relations and bureaucratic politics, 3 May 2014, RUSI, London

asianperceptions.eu

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NFG Research Group „Asian Perceptions of the EU“A transnational Networked Think Tank.

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Funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research - Associated Project of the KFG „Transformative Power of Europe”

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